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I sell and ship (EU only) mainly silver in 1oz Canada Maple Leaf, minimum = 100 rounds.
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Prediction: That #2 spot from April will need to get bumped off the top 20 list before we "crash".
That's quite a safe prediction. I am envisioning a nice, smooth rise to 4 digits over several weeks' time. Perhaps we can be friends after all. |
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In my opinion that trend line is unsustainable and arbitrary. 10k by jan 2015? Some unforeseen event(s) of ridiculous magnitude would have to occur. Maybe by 2020. But not by 2015.
No, it isn't. There is only one way to use the least squares method, and it is depicted above. You, on the other hand, seem to pull numbers from your sleeve, and good luck trading systematically with that approach. How is the squares method not arbitrary? Please, i don't have time for this. Find out if you honestly don't know. In the thread where this is derived, there are links and all. Look you have informative posts, but you were also claiming in may that we would be in moderate 4 digits by the end of this year.
What are going say if that trend line falls way off of the mark in 2014? What reason will you come up with then? That chart is not a "method". It's a supposition.
I meant that you should employ at least the same amount of background work presenting a better alternative, instead of saying that In my opinion that trend line is unsustainable and arbitrary.
You have been registered for all of 6 weeks, right? It is enough time to form an opinion, but there are already so many of those having an opinion but not backing. This would be much fun if among the 153,000 forum members even 5 would care to research economic matters with the same precision as I do. Woe to the would-be trader that actually cares about your opinions! (Sorry.) The trendline is constructed of 58 datapoints currently. If the dataset changes, such as when November is added, the trendline is redrawn using the original method. It changes very little to take into account the latest addition. Also if better data is retrieved from the early months. My earlier attempts of constructing a trendline were defective due to the lack of data from the early days of Bitcoin. That's why you should just discard the Mt.Gox price hand-drawn trendlines unless you have very solid research backing it. "Unsustainable" is an unmathematical concept, which you apply incorrectly. As recently as 1999 something completely unsustainable did happen in stock market and I lost a fortune. There are actual unsustainables, but they are further away than most believe. Google black swan. |
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Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions. Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is.  It's not like someone can buy 10 btc and retire, though, right? What would be a good strategy for this scenario? I know a person who invested a sum, comparable to perhaps buying BTC10 now, into bitcoin, saying: "finally - I will never again need to work for money". And he hasn't. My advice is, buy BTC10 and start mentally transforming yourself, because the day is sooner than you expect. |
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In my opinion that trend line is unsustainable and arbitrary. 10k by jan 2015? Some unforeseen event(s) of ridiculous magnitude would have to occur. Maybe by 2020. But not by 2015.
No, it isn't. There is only one way to use the least squares method, and it is depicted above. You, on the other hand, seem to pull numbers from your sleeve, and good luck trading systematically with that approach. |
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Since this was dubbed " Golden post", I will copy it here:  My advice for successful bitcoin investing is as follows: - Every time the price is below the trendline, BUY - If it is above, HOLD, if you think you can buy cheaper after a dip (for lazy investors: BUY unless the price is more than double the target) - If the price overshoots by a great margin, such as 5x the trend, HOLD/SELL (never sell more than a fraction, even temporarily) The trendline goes up 23% per month, so you should not sell after every little blip over the trendline, because it will catch the price so soon. Only major overshoots should be sold into. Always buy if the price is below trendline, because the trend will rise so quickly and the price will need to rise even quicker, just to catch up with the trend. Never wait in this kind of situation. We are now in this situation, since Nov. trendtarget is $310. |
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Your numbers are a bit different from mine, and I suspect it is a difference in methodology. It seems you are taking the arithmetic mean of several weekly weighted averages. Is there a reason why the monthly weighted average is not used? Laziness. It is a logarithmic-trendline fitting exercise, and it does not change anything. But if you have the monthly VWAs, (starting June 2013 in Stamp), I could replace the values. Does your month end on Friday or the last day of the month? To fine-tune the methodology more, you should try to use a data on all the markets. But it would not be significant. Btw. nice work! Btw2. And congratulations for the new ATH!  |
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( Thread here) My advice for successful bitcoin investing is as follows: - Every time the price is below the trendline, BUY - If it is above, HOLD, if you think you can buy cheaper after a dip (for lazy investors: BUY unless the price is more than double the target) - If the price overshoots by a great margin, such as 5x the trend, HOLD/SELL (never sell more than a fraction, even temporarily) The trendline goes up 23% per month, so you should not sell after every little blip over the trendline, because it will catch the price so soon. Only major overshoots should be sold into. Always buy if the price is below trendline, because the trend will rise so quickly and the price will need to rise even quicker, just to catch up with the trend. Never wait in this kind of situation. We are now in this situation, since Nov. trendtarget is $310. |
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THIS IS ME SINCE 204!!!  Oh you peanuts... That is me since 0.25!!! |
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Quite a lot, but still not so many. To comfortably retire you need at least BTC10, it's not getting much easier than that. So it will be 100,000s of people at most, not millions. Unless bitcoin rises really high, that is. |
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Initially I hoped I'd never be such a no-life-havin loser as to make Hero Member. Opps. 'If the shoe fits, wear it' I guess.
How many needed? 5,000? |
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Im a loser lol. I live in my parents' -IN-LAW basement  Also in thailand its so much better to rent. Rent is almost free but buying a house is pretty damn high. A crucial piece of info was missing... I also prefer rent. Here you get about 3% return on capital, which cannot compare with bitcoin. |
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no need to quote even if you reply: others want to ignore the sucker, but now we need to see his "message" 3 times...  |
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Happy to share your joy |
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Looks like they are talking about 51% attack and blockchain forking, without actually understanding what they talk about...
Or at a bare minimum, not contributing anything that has not been there since day 1. |
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At this point, it seems close to impossible that we don't test the all time closing high of 229 on Bitstamp today. Or tomorrow at the latest.
What is the all time intra day high on bitstamp? 259 |
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How is it that they have no requirement to understand anything in the university concerning the topic they are researching...? |
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Ain't it the truth.
I think truth is - buy low - sell high ... - buy higher "Losing all your money" is difficult w/ bitcoin. |
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Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib. It was just an intraday correction, bouncing back from the 217.36 first Fibonacci line (which I don't even trade). |
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Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib. Yes, false alarm. Rpietilla, can I pm you? sure |
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