i really think that's the bottom line here. i don't think we should be presenting any centralized exchange as being safe from having funds frozen. while offshore exchanges like binance and poloniex are safer than coinbase or gemini in this respect, the regulatory atmosphere and site terms re any platform can change at the drop of a dime. and beyond that, any 3rd party trust is always a danger to your coins.

there is a tendency to single out this or that exchange for AML/KYC policies or whatever issue of the day, but i really think we should be emphasizing the danger of all centralized exchanges given the regulatory atmosphere. everyone should minimize the amount of funds they send to exchanges, withdraw ASAP after trading, and always approach with caution knowing these internal AML controls are always watching and waiting to flag your coins. always know where your outputs come from and act accordingly etc.

i think that's a fair assumption. coins derived from exchanges are generally treated as "clean".

spending outputs should be treated with care and on a case-by-case basis. one should always consider where their outputs come from, and at what times it is appropriate to use them.

i have several different wallets with outputs from different sources, some of which generally need to be mixed or otherwise transferred through a third party service that is unlikely to flag them before i can deposit funds to a regulated exchange. for example, binance and kucoin have no policies against gambling. coinbase does. when i need to sell gambling winnings into dollars, one way is to deposit to one of these more lenient exchanges, trade the BTC into USDC, then transfer to coinbase and convert to dollars. this has the added bonus of saving me a ton on trading fees.

developers and investors can't control demand for privacy coins. what we're gonna see is a two tier system of exchanges---whitelisted, regulated exchanges that don't list popular privacy coins, and grey market exchanges that offer privacy coins from unregulated or lax jurisdictions. the japanese government systematically pressured exchanges to de-list XMR, DASH, ZCASH, etc but japanese customers can then turn to seychelles-based altcoin exchanges where they can exchange BTC for privacy coins without KYC.

in other jurisdictions, exchanges/governments will support ZCASH non-shielded transactions, because they know many customers don't know understand the privacy implications.

voter turnout is the issue there. it doesn't matter if biden gets the black vote if they don't show up on election day. obama was extremely effective at bringing out the black vote. the hope is that a black VP candidate will bring back the same kind of energy.


you have to think about how it all fits into the liberal paradigm and overall atmosphere of white guilt. this is probably about appealing to white liberal voters more than anything else. that's why biden vowed to run with a woman running mate, and probably why he'll pick a black woman too. that's what liberals want to see---minority representation, even if it's meaningless in terms of actual policy. middle class liberals overwhelmingly do not want to talk about class issues, so they focus on identity issues and channel all their political energy into that.

picking an asian american like duckworth plays better than a white person, but i don't think he'll get quite the same payoff as if he picked kamala or rice. kamala is best for biden's odds, although duckworth's military background might appeal to centrists who are on the fence.

kraken has long tried to fill the vacuum left by bitfinex in the USA market. that's their niche among USA exchanges. this is IMO in part a marketing effort---powell appeals to privacy-minded and anti-government folks with his occasional tirades against government intrusion/barriers to entry and privacy stuff.

in reality though, they are a USA exchange. they are running similar AML profiles on their customers as coinbase, they are closing accounts for the same reasons (though they are generally smart enough not to tell customers why their accounts are being closed), and they don't hesitate to respond to law enforcement requests.

the important takeaway for me, as a customer, is all the exchanges are running these internal analytics software on their customers, kraken included. coinbase analytics is such a far-removed concern for me. i'm worried that peoples' focus on stuff like that (which powell is obviously exploiting for marketing purposes) gives them a very false sense of safety about the exchanges they use.

it's not as bad as it sounds. the criminal court apparently doesn't have the authority to quantify the monetary damages for the stolen bitcoins, so they excluded their value from the scope of the criminal charges.

the matter of the stolen bitcoin will therefore be decided by the civil courts instead.

now, if the civil court decides there are no monetary damages, that would be upsetting.

i think these risks are being overblown. the people that really need to mix outputs are those withdrawing from darknet marketplaces and gambling sites. that's what will get your exchanges accounts shut down, and possibly attention from law enforcement.

some people get too hung up on tax issues IMO, thinking the tax authorities are gonna demand an immaculate, provable record of every transaction ever made in your life since you acquired your first mBTC. i simply don't buy into that sort of paranoia---and if i did, i don't see why mixing would do you much good since you couldn't prove anything about the source of your coins.

tax authorities are always trying to minimize time spent on any case. more than anything, they want to quickly reconcile your fiat transfers (assuming they are income) with the expected taxes due. they have no interest in coordinating an expensive multi-agency criminal investigation because someone is advertising a casino in their bitcointalk profile.

i understand. i just don't see this as a bitcoin issue per se, more so an issue of burdensome government regulations, especially re money transmitters. i really miss the old wild west days---BTC-E was my exchange of choice for many years---but it's just unrealistic to expect exchanges to uphold those ethics at this point.

it's FATF rules (and national legal reinforcement of them) that brought the risk-based approach to money transmission years ago. crypto exchanges have merely been brought into the fold of existing regulation. i don't see exchanges as appointing themselves anything---they are just unwillingly implementing an expensive and burdensome solution to overreaching laws. no company wants this. they just don't want to get shut down by the FBI or get 9 figure fines from FINCEN.

the same logic applies to coinbase re gambling transactions.


i mean, they can just ignore these laws of course, but they would also get massive fines from regulators. not a very profitable move. i assume shareholders would not like this approach......

if speed is a concern, then centralized exchanges and bank wire withdrawals are usually the best route. gemini, coinbase pro, kraken, and bitflyer are easily liquid enough to handle those amounts and they all process wires quickly. all except kraken also offer ACH bank withdrawals (no fees) if you are willing to wait a day or three longer for the money to hit your bank account. when i withdraw from coinbase pro via ACH i generally receive funds on the second businesses day after submitting the request.

as far as money laundering risks go, that depends where the bitcoins are sourced from. if they are "clean" (for example, outputs withdrawn from exchanges and other whitelisted services, mined outputs) you should not have a problem, although you might consider spreading your sales to multiple exchanges to avoid volume-based AML measures.

if the coins come from questionable sources, you might consider dealing with that issue first.


it depends on your tax status in the USA. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/nonusresidenttax.asp


you will generally not be subject to any tax withholding from exchanges, but if you cross certain volume thresholds (like $20k + 200 transactions in a year) then regulated exchanges like those mentioned will send the IRS a form 1099-k notifying them of your activities.

the ideal is for decentralized/p2p mixing transactions (like coinjoins or atomic swaps) to blend in among normal network transactions.

right now, that isn't possible. it's currently trivial for blockchain analysis to recognize coinjoin transactions/outputs or to monitor multiple blockchains for atomic swaps. i'm skeptical it will "get you in trouble with the authorities" on its own, but it could get your money frozen by over ambitious exchanges. we definitely need better on-chain privacy enhancements.

something i'm excited for is schnorr signatures, which will in turn enable adaptor signatures. this will allow atomic swaps without requiring you to publish all the script information on-chain. in other words, you'll be able to do atomic swaps for mixing without leaving behind any on-chain data that connects the outputs together. http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/layer2-summit/2018/scriptless-scripts/

that's just with cash though. i would agree that cash is superior for black market transactions, particularly those that might warrant FBI or similar attention.

yet we live in an increasingly cashless world. with debit/credit cards, paypal, venmo and the like, financial institutions know exactly how/where your money was spent and what your balance is. the dots can be easily connected in a law enforcement investigation.

when coinbase tries to analyze blockchain activity, at best they are applying probabilistic/heuristic models. they don't know much of anything. for example, if i withdraw outputs from coinbase and 3 hops later they end up in an exchange or casino or DNM, it's impossible to know whether or not those outputs changed hands up to thrice before arriving there. and once swept by a centralized service, that's generally the end of the trail. they apply risk-based models to account for that re AML compliance, but that still doesn't provide the sort of insight into account holder activities that electronic banking does.


like this---it's purely risk-based. something like this would never hold up as evidence in a court of law. it's just a company deciding a customer is risky and refusing to do business with them.

at those stacks/blinds i am basically never bet-folding OOP. it definitely felt like a case overestimating your fold equity.

oh well, one of these days i'll actually run good in one of these tourneys! it's tough playing against a bunch of luckboxes.


i had QQ.


lol, what a pisser.

the way i see it, the announcement just needs to be ahead of the DNC. that's when it officially becomes election season and people start really paying attention. this VP pick is extremely important in terms of bringing out certain contingents of democrat-leaning voters, so understandably the biden campaign is trying to wait to maximize on polling/strategy data, to make sure they make the optimal pick. biden's self-imposed deadline for picking his VP candidate is august 1st so i reckon we'll hear something closer to that time. my money is still on kamala.

i see the stock markets dumped today---the dow is down 2% so far. trump's odds have been holding around 36%. i wonder if this could be the start of a dip to 30% or so. last time the stock market sold off (early-mid june) is when his chances cratered into the 30s.

after an incredibly nitty ~40 minute bubble i managed to get ITM, but shortly afterwards i lost on this draw out to @Steamtyme. we were all in on the flop:





too bad, i would have been in a dominant position if it went the other way. i got it in good every single time today, but i just never really ran good.

@Globb0 is now heads up with @Steamtyme. take him out @Globb0, dude has been sucking out all day!

grabbing points without playing aka "the Sygambler special".

@Globb0, @efialtis, and @Steamtyme are all running hot today. i'm still in the game with 20 bbs left, 7 players remaining. (top 4 will cash)

the first mystery bounty was on @BitcoinGirl.Club, not sure who knocked him out. i've knocked out 2 players so far (@Sygambler and @Improved)......second mystery bounty for me please!

1. fast settlement time. normal fiat exchanges can take days or even weeks to credit or fulfill fiat transfers. USDT can be deposited and withdrawn in a matter of minutes.

2. chinese traders need fiat hedging instruments because the government banned CNY/crypto trading. USDT being the most lax (AML wise) and liquid of all stablecoins, it was the obvious market choice.

3. no KYC requirements on secondary markets. so exchanges like binance, poloniex, kucoin, and chinese exchanges can allow BTC/fiat hedging without verification.

4. the first 3 points reinforce strong demand for USDT markets from traders, making for thick order books. this further draws in more traders who naturally seek out markets with high volume and liquidity.

i didn't really think the lottery would attract new players. my hope was that it would keep regulars playing in the second half of the series, as people drop out of contention for the championship.

too bad about the 50 krill chat requirement. that was the old requirement, a year or more ago, before they lowered it to 1. i wonder what caused the change.

i've got a few hundred krill after relatively light low stakes play, so it shouldn't be out of reach for too long @Globb0.

the opt out scenario is basically already guaranteed for the NFL too. i wonder when this hard deadline will be:


naturally, any fantasy draft should take place after that deadline.....

the chinese seem to have a strong liking for tether, whether or not they are fully backed.

tether teaches us time and time again that market fundamentals don't matter all that much to price. it really doesn't matter if USDT aren't backed 1:1. what matters is that tether will redeem at 1:1 for large brokers and arbitrageurs (keeping the market pegged) and that there is massive USDT liquidity in the market, much bigger than other stablecoins.

you're the man, @efi! may your godlike betting streak continue!


no big deal. anything can happen with 6 games to go.


patience certainly pays off for me sometimes, but it's too bad these come from behind plays don't work so well for collecting KO bounties.

i'll be registering shortly. see everyone tomorrow!