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I can't believe how many idiots are still happily sending coins to this Ponzi scheme.
"check the blockchain" isn't good advice. That shows that so far the Ponzi has been paying out, like all Ponzis do at the beginning.
The problem is that when it can no longer afford to keep up with the exponentially growing payouts, it slows down and then stops.
We're seeing this already, yet people are still happily throwing their coins away.
It really just makes me despair.
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well damn, there goes my bet that JD will make 600BTC profit this month
Not necessarily. He could come back and lose it all. It wouldn't be the first time a Martingale player thought they were invincible (and were wrong). |
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For those who say Martingale "never works", I woke up this morning to find that Just-Dice had lost 100 BTC overnight. Looking into it, I see it was a single big player who won it, and he won it using Martingale. Here's a chart showing his profit over the last 6 hours:  So while it's a bad idea to Martingale, it's not fair to say it never works! Edit: here's a chart showing the effect his play had on the overall Just-Dice profits for the week. He wiped out all the profits we made since last Sunday...  Edit2: for those who prefer numbers to pictures, here's a list of all his Martingale sequences. Note how random it appears. He's not always resetting to the same starting point, but always doubles on loss (except for on the 4th line, where he went bust and had to redeposit, and the last but one line where I guess he was getting tired?): -2 4
-2 4
-4 8
-10 -20 -10.944 40
-2 4
-2 4
-2 -4 -8 16
-4 -8 -16 32
-5 10
1
1
-1 2
-1 2
2
-2 -4 -8 16
-0.5 1
-0.5 -1 2
-2 4
-0.10002784 0.20005568
-1 -2 4
1
-1 -2 4
1
-4 8
1
-1 -2 4
1
-1 -2 4
-1 2
2
2
-2 4
2
2
-2 -4 8
-2 4
2
-2 -4 -8 -16 -32 64
2
-2 -4 8
-1 2
1
1
-1 2
2
-2 4
-4 -8 16
-2 -4 8
-1 -2 -4 -8 -16 32
1
-1 -2 -4 -8 16
1
1
1
-1 -2 -4 -8 16
1
-1 -2 -4 8
-1 2
-1 -2 -4 8
-1 2
-2 -4 -8 16
1
-1 -0.5 -1 -4 8
-2 -4 -8 -16 32 |
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Can you use martingale on sportsbetting events?
You can use martingale on anything. If you've lost X so far, bet to win a little more than X on your next bet. It's also called "chasing your losses" and is generally considered a bad idea. Here's the result of Deb using martingale on Bitzino's video poker. She started betting at 10 microbits (1000 satoshis). Each time she lost, she doubled up. Each time she hit jacks, which just returns your stake, she stayed the same, and each time she won, she reset to 10 microbets. After doubling 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10240, 20480, 40960 she hit a royal flush. She couldn't afford to double again, and this was the first time she had ever bet as much as 40960 microbits (0.04096000 BTC) on a single hand. Incredibly lucky to hit a royal flush on your highest ever, and last ever bet. But it happened!  Then she sold the 32 BTC profit for about $32 each before the April 2013 bubble. Doh! |
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Awesome deal. Thanks! And also thanks for letting us know beforehand. Tired of coming home to find out people are giving out notices of things like this just hours prior, :p. This gives more than enough time to plan for it.
I was hoping to give 2 weeks' notice, but it took me longer than expected to get the /poker command working how I wanted it. We organised a freeroll for New Year's Eve, and it very quickly filled up with random non-JD folk. So this time I wanted to have the JD site give out the codes itself, based on real activity on the site. Note that it's using a snapshot of player stats from before I announced the game, so spamming bets or chat messages now won't change anything - although maybe it'll get you into the next one...  |
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June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice. To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new. Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket. There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize. 6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties. See you there!  |
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Average return over the last 6 month compared to the current invest amount is around 11 %
6 months ago was Dec 11 2013. At that point site profit was around 8500 BTC. Now it's 18500 BTC. So profit in the last 6 months is almost exactly 10000 BTC. The current bankroll is 50000 BTC. So the profit over the last 6 months is 20%. How did you get 11%? Edit: Oh I get it! Yeah, yeah. It's a terrible place to put your coins. Don't even bother - the returns are tiny. (Leave the profit for me ) |
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June 20th marks the 1st birthday for Just-Dice. To celebrate we're having a 2 BTC poker freeroll at SealsWithClubs for Just-Dice regulars old and new. Log in to your regular account, and type /poker in the chat box to see if you qualify for a free ticket. There's also a 0.5 bounty on the head of both doog and Deb - knock either of them out to claim your 0.5 BTC prize. 6pm PST | 9pm EST | 2am GMT | 3am CET For chat moderators of both DD and JD there's a 2nd freeroll an hour later, with another 2 BTC prize pool and two more 0.5 BTC bounties. See you there! |
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Yeah, who is going to believe in 160% returns in 40 hours. Clearly a Ponzi right? Not like this legitimate and professional service, no Sir! Pathetic |
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While I am waiting you to answer - I'd like you to, [...]
Everything you say is true, but I have little hope that you will ever convince him of that. I see people using the "bet small until you see N the same in a row, then bet high that the streak will end" technique a lot on Just-Dice. Usually they wait for the streak and then start Martingale betting. What's funny is that it often works very well. The reason for this is that Martingale *does* work very well until you hit a streak that's too long, and if you play enough times you will hit that streak. But when you wait for a streak before you even start, it has the side effect of really reducing the number of real bets you can make per hour, which really increases the time until you reach a streak that busts you. So the described strategy "works" in a sense, in that Martingale is a horrible strategy, and waiting for a certain condition to occur before starting each Martingale progression means you play less. People see this, and think that the magic of waiting for a streak in the dust bets is what it working, whereas smoking a cigarette or reciting the Lord's Prayer between each bet would "work" just as well, to the extent that both would slow you down. |
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Since dooglus is on my trust list your trust is still positive with me, I just hope he isn't your 20 btc investor.
It isn't me. I just posted negative trust for Klye saying: > Klye is an addicted gambler. If you trust him with any coins there's a reasonable chance that he will gamble them away. I think he's a good guy, with a gambling problem. Because of that I wouldn't trust him with any Bitcoin that I wasn't prepared to lose. In the same way I wouldn't trust my dog to look after my dinner for me. |
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Any plans for a LTC dice site?
LTC? Ew, no! Again, how can 5% (5 BTC) possibly be equal to 2.06% (2.06 BTC) when we're talking about the same thing (profit) over the same time period (a week) when both are using the same variable (wagered amount)? How much is in the investment pool is irrelevant to any of this discussion.
Profit as a percentage of the total wagered is different that profit as a percentage of the bankroll. Both are interesting numbers. The first tells us how well we performed relative to the 1% house edge. The second tells us how much our contribution to the bankroll grew this week. Suppose only 1 person bet all week, and they bet just a single satoshi, and that they lost their bet. The profit for the week would be 100% of the amount wagered, but only very slightly over 0% of the bankroll. We will have performed 100 times better than expected, but nobody will have made much of a profit at all. They're two different numbers which gives you two different denominators when calculating the percents.
Exactly this. |
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Great job this week guys. Your coins worked hard for us and somehow managed to retain over 5% of the amount wagered!
Jun 9 2014 2.06% 142.75%
Can you please clarify this? You said there was a 5% retention (ie. house edge) but the profit was only 2.06%? Sorry if that was confusing. Over the week, the amount wagered was 17754.48434936 BTC and the profit from that was 962.1460573 BTC. That profit is 5.419% of the amount wagered. Through the week, the size of the bankroll was around 46k BTC. If you were contributing to the site's bankroll for the whole week, your contribution will have grown by 2.06%. The 962 BTC profit is roughly 2% of the 46k BTC bankroll. Note that I did write I was listing "the 10 most recent weekly returns" - return as in the percentage growth experienced by anyone contributing to the bankroll that week. So there are two different numbers: * 5% : the effective house edge (profit as a percentage of amount wagered), * 2% : the return to investors (profit as a percentage of the bankroll). |
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Each week I'll quote the previous week's chart, and post the new one. That way you can follow the chain of links back through time. Here's this week's:  Great job this week guys. Your coins worked hard for us and somehow managed to retain over 5% of the amount wagered!  I'll post a list of the 10 most recent weekly returns each week too. The first number each week is the weekly return, and the 2nd is the cumulative return since launch in June 2013: Apr 7 2014 1.35% 132.73%
Apr 14 2014 0.90% 133.93%
Apr 21 2014 1.01% 135.28%
Apr 28 2014 0.85% 136.43%
May 5 2014 0.56% 137.20%
May 12 2014 0.32% 137.63%
May 19 2014 1.05% 139.07%
May 26 2014 0.35% 139.56%
Jun 2 2014 0.22% 139.87%
Jun 9 2014 2.06% 142.75% |
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A SPOTTY LITTLE GINGER PRICK
It is big, but I'm pretty sure he's white. YOU LITTLE MUPPET FUCK.
Hey! He wrote that he gambled in the pub too. He didn't say how much, but the house edge on those games is horrible. Would an itemized list of Klye's extravagances help anyone at this point? |
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On the day I was born, February 14, 1932
You're old! By the time I died in August of 2000
Dead old! Here is the account:
2/14/32 $0.01
2/14/33 $0.02
2/14/34 $0.04
[...]
2/14/00 $2,951,479,051,793,530,000.00
No wonder you ended up with such a pitiful amount. You were only doubling once per year. Modern financial geniuses like the OP of this thread can double your money every 4 business days. Just think how much more you could have made! Probably at least ten times more!!! |
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And judging from the posts on this thread, I don't think you have much to worry about.
Are you saying "people are dumb so they'll lose"? Because there's no skill to playing dice games. It's all about luck. |
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You will see 10-15 consecutive losses a hell of a lot more than 10-15 consecutive wins.
I wouldn't say so. 10 losses is 1 in 927 10 wins is 1 in 1132 15 losses is 1 in 38100 15 wins is 1 in 28225 The loss streaks aren't even twice as likely as the win streaks. I was recently looking into the history of Just-Dice 49.5% rolls, to find the longest streaks there have been. I was surprised to find the following: There have been 13 streaks of length 26 or more, and they break down as follows: length 26: 3 losing, 3 winning length 27: 1 losing, 4 winning length 30: 0 losing, 1 winning length 32: 1 losing, 0 winning ie. there were 8 winning streaks and only 5 losing streaks of length 26 or more. That's not what you would expect at all, given that losing streaks are meant to be more common. Edit: I think I just figured out why that would be. If you get 24 steps through a long winning streak, you don't stop playing. If you get 24 steps through a long losing streak, you may well be bust if you're doubling on every loss, and so you stop playing and the rest of the streak never happens. My analysis also ignored bets of 0 BTC, so if you got part way through your long losing streak, ran out of coins, and then bet 0 over and over just to see how long the streak was, it wouldn't show up in my count. |
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If you are talking about the strategy of making 2x bets and doubling the wager upon loss, it is worse as the total wagered amount is HUGE if you want to get from 1 BTC to 2 BTC.
Right, but what if you make an r-1 BTC bet with chance 99/(r*(r+1)), and if you lose, bet the rest at the same chance, where r is the square root of 2? That has the effect of getting from 1 BTC to 2 BTC if you win either the first or second bet, and does it more reliably than putting the whole 1 BTC on at 49.5%. |
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