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6641  Economy / Economics / Re: Comparison of Bitcoin with Payment Methods in the World on: September 18, 2018, 05:16:50 PM
Well, think about it, why would people switch from their current centralized methods to Bitcoin? Because they want privacy? Some small percentage does, but most people don't bother with that, they post their whole life on Facebook. Because people don't trust government and banks? No, they don't even think about economics, until it starts to bite them.  Just like people haven't moved from Windows to Linux, most of the population won't move from Visa to Bitcoin. But that's okay, because some people will move, or will use both, and Bitcoin will have its own ecosystem.
6642  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-17] John Mcafee: Decentralized Exchanges Will Trigger ‘Largest Economi on: September 18, 2018, 04:16:01 PM
He's a silly billy but he does have a point here. Exchanges are still overwhelmingly centralised with all the endless problems and bullshit that brings. I'm not sure how many people realise how rare non centralised exchanges are.

Bisq and equivalents will very much need to up their game on the fiat side of things though.

Are those problems with centralized exchanges the reason why Bitcoin and other coins haven't made "largest economic expansion is history yet"? I seriously doubt that. For an average user, they can just move money it, get coins out and 99.9% of the time there won't be any problems.

Decentralized exchanges would be nice, but they too are not perfect, banks and payment companies control fiat, if they would want, they can disrupt the work of decentralized exchanges. Plus, they might be not able to compete with centralized exchanges in terms of fees - banks have something like 0.5-1% fees, that's pretty bad for trading.
6643  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-13]10 Years After Lehman: Bitcoin and Wall Street Are Closer Than Ever on: September 17, 2018, 01:18:18 PM
The only way fiat is going to die is when the population will lose faith in it and the government will fail. Even hyperinflation like the one currently happening in Venezuela is not enough to kill fiat, many other countries have had it at some point of their history, and they've usually solved it by rebooting their currency. Too many people are dependent on it - people employed by the government, people who pay taxes and so on. I don't believe in Bitcoin revolution, Bitcoin will just keep coexisting with fiat and will have a relatively small userbase consisting of people who value its properties.

I'm also quite skeptical that Bitcoin is going replace fiat currencies, unless people abolish governments entirely. Governments have no incentive to give up monetary control, and they will continue forcing people to accept legal tender for payment of debts and taxes. Most people are passive sheep and will do what government and society tells them to do.

The path I see is one where BTC gains status as a traditional investment asset. Governments and central banks will be forced to hold reserves as a hedge against geopolitical risk, but it would be nonsensical for them to cede monetary control and adopt BTC as legal tender. I'm not sure about mass adoption for commerce, not until we see user-friendly applications that allow for exponential scale. Then we'll see what actual adoption looks like.

If governments will continue with their anti-cash policies, Bitcoin is very likely to become cash 2.0 - a payment method of choice for people who currently have some sort of cash-only business. People will start using Bitcoin as currency more when they'll realize that it's one of the best ways for them. It might not be now, or maybe people just don't think about it too much, but it's very likely to change in the future, although I don't expect it to be too massive.
6644  Economy / Speculation / Re: We're all Schrödinger's cats in the short term on: September 16, 2018, 07:14:08 PM
We won't know where the price will be at any given time until we check it!

or maybe we're Schrodinger's investors.

I'm not saying I don't believe in the fundamentals, I believe there is a huge future for bitcoin, but we don't truly know what the future may hold. Past performance not indicating future outcomes and what not.

i like that.

schrodinger's cat is a good reminder that as long as we continue to speculate about future mainstream adoption or institutional adoption, etc. that these things are mere possibilities. the event (eg mainstream adoption) hasn't occurred until it's actually occurred and the spectrum of possibilities collapses into one reality. until that day, we're still "in the box" so to speak, awaiting the result.

i'm a big believer in bitcoin, but i also believe that a number of things could still occur that results in the complete abandonment of it. Lips sealed

That's exactly the reason why Bitcoin is so volatile and why we have these big bull and bear markets - people bet money on and against Bitcoin (sometimes even the same people), but until we witness it succreding as a currency/asset/commodity, etc., both scenarios are possible. It's also kinda subjective - some people see that Bitcoin hasn't reached mass adoption yet and take it as a negative sign, others think that Bitcoin has already achieved a lot.
6645  Economy / Speculation / Re: When will the price of cryptocurrencies be stable? on: September 16, 2018, 06:42:37 PM
Bitcoin was relatively stable in 2015 because of the post-bear market stagnation, we might see more periods like that in the future. Perhaps we'll experience something like that very soon, if $6,000 is the bottom of the current bear market.

But if you are asking when will Bitcoin be truly stable, the answer is not soon, the speculation needs to shrink. Currently the market is speculative because people aren't sure about Bitcoin's fundamentals, some bet that it will succeed, others bet against it. With time it will become more clear who was right, so there will be less reasons for speculation.
6646  Economy / Economics / Re: Tech advances should make 4-day workweek a reality for the 21st century on: September 16, 2018, 02:37:38 PM
If advances in technology and productivity can result in a 4 day work week.

Then perhaps the sooner we witness a mass adoption of bitcoin and crypto currencies, the sooner we may reap the benefits of technological progress and productivity gains supplied by utilizing more reliable crypto currencies over troubled fiat money. Like birds migrating south for the winter, a better migration pattern to crypto currencies could represent a greener pasture for the dawn of future financial and economic progress, which could be defined in terms of algorithmic or artificial intelligence based offerings such as the algorithm bitcoin utilizes to determine supply.


I don't see how exactly Bitcoin would help to install a 4 day work week. Fiat has problems with inflation, in electronic form it has problems with trust, but in general it's functionally very similar to Bitcoin - both are money that can be used to pay people. Is the amount of work hours somehow related to payment methods or what?
Besides, the work week comes from government intervention, so it's generally not good for economy. Workers should negotiate with employers on their own.
6647  Economy / Economics / Re: The Cryptocurrency Job Market Is Exploding (Infographic) on: September 16, 2018, 11:16:17 AM
Of course cryptocurrency job market is exploding since the crypto market has been growing like crazy, and even though we're in bear market there's still a ton of activity.

But I don't see it as an entirely positive thing, because the market seriously lacks in fundamentals - a lot of money were poured in, and yet there is very little working products, very little users who use coins besides investing. The market will very likely crash, and almost all those crypto jobs will be gone, and the bad part is that people who have spent their money and time getting blockchain-related certificates will be in a loss.
6648  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Would you still invest in Crypto related projects, if you know it was a scam? on: September 16, 2018, 10:19:44 AM
People knowingly invest in scams on a premise that majority of other investors don't understand that it's a scam (otherwise it wouldn't be profitable). The ICO market is even better case than cloud mining, tons of people understand that ICO's are either scams or crap, still they invest and trade because it can be so profitable. With hyips more people understand that they are investing in scams, they just assume that they are early investors.
6649  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: This is why we should all use Bitcoin and no more credit cards. on: September 15, 2018, 04:27:34 PM
It's a good argument against credit cards, but sadly it doesn't apply to most people, because they actually view the ability to charge your bank account as a useful feature that saves them time of doing every payment manually. Today people prefer to outsource everything, even their finance, and this trend might also apply to Bitcoin - people are using custodians like Coinbase, businesses also don't run their own nodes and wallets and trust third-party services, ultra-rich store their coins in underground vaults, and some investors wait for ETF's or other instruments. Not everyone wants to be their own bank.
6650  Economy / Economics / Re: Technology improves we work more. on: September 15, 2018, 04:00:31 PM
The goal of technology was for everyone to have easier lives and work less. Well todays generations have it much tougher.  They are working for much lower wages and longer hours.  Its next to impossible for millenials to purchase a house on their own.  Something here itsn't right, Capitalism?

It's simply not true that people these days work more, all the actual research data suggests otherwise. Today's generation is having it way easier than people 100 years ago, people used to work full day to barely make a living, now they have a good amount of money left after covering their all basic needs. Of course there are a lot of poor people now, but there used to be even more, and problems like hunger and illness afflict less people than before.
6651  Economy / Economics / Re: Amazon's Bezos Launches $2 Billion Fund to Help the Homeless on: September 15, 2018, 02:40:52 PM

That said, when I read stories like this I tend to assume Jeff Bezos is donating $2 billion to the homeless as it is cheaper than giving amazon's workers a raise. At points in past history, the term philanthropy may have meant making a legitimate effort to help the poor. Today being a "philanthropist" may simply mean donating less than 0.5% of your net worth to the poor, as it is cheaper than net alternatives.

Homeless people and amazon workers are two different groups of people, so what does giving $2 billion to one has to do with the other? It's not like he's getting a green light to do whatever he wants from now on, and he certainly won't stop paying taxes because of his charity. I just don't get this hostility towards rich people - whatever they do, the crowd always hates them.

Also, Bitcoin has libertarian roots, so in some way it is anti-government and anti-tax. It certainly doesn't have thinking about the poor as one of its core values.
6652  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-09-09] A Billion People Will Be Using Crypto in 5 Years: Brian Armstrong on: September 15, 2018, 12:01:34 PM

Personally, I think Bitcoin's trajectory is more binary than that. As long the technology remains secure, I lean towards mass adoption.

Bitcoin will continue getting more adoption, and factors like better user experience, protocol improvements and lowered volatility will certainly help, but there are some fundamental problems. People often like to stick to one product and ignore alternatives for a really long time, they just don't see the point in trying new things if old things work fine. I feel like the same will happen with Bitcoin - most people will ignore it because they are satisfied with banks.
6653  Economy / Economics / Re: On Marxism and the bitcoin energy consumption debate on: September 14, 2018, 03:59:43 PM
Labor theory of value is insanely flawed and has absolutely nothing to do with Bitcoin's Proof of Work.

All value is subjective because it only exists in our minds, all people value the same things differently, and the price is just a consensus between the seller and the buyer. Labor theory of value treats value as some sort of objective physical property, and it fails to describe the reality because it totally ignores how economy actually works.

It completely fails in the case of Bitcoin, because the total network hashrate is driven by the price, not vice versa. Miners add more ASICS because they see big profitability, they never add ASICS hoping that this will drive the price higher. This is because the market doesn't see PoW value as linear, if the network is already secure, the security gains will start to diminish (even though the cost of attack scales linearly).

Labor alone is not the source of value, other people need to view it as useful in order to create value, and this is not a binary value, it's a scale. Bitcoin price increased so much since it's launch because more people became aware of it, more people started to want it, while the supply was decreasing.

I'm pretty sure that Satoshi was familiar with Austrian economics and maybe was even inspired by them, because PoW is based on supply and demand, not labor theory. If Bitcoin was based on Marxist ideas, it would have constant difficulty and constant reward and fixed fees (or no fees).
6654  Economy / Economics / Re: Lehman Weekend: The Biggest Bankruptcy in American History on: September 14, 2018, 01:57:10 PM
It was like 10 years when Lehman Brothers collapsed followed by a global and economic disaster. But we have to thank that this event has happened otherwise Satoshi wouldn't created Bitcoin in the first place. It was the catalyst for him to invent a P2P currency without any intermediary (usually banks), and to operate without any government's intervention, thus decentralization.

Personally though, I was affected by this event, was laid out after September 2008 and was out of job for about a month. I was caught by surprised because there's some assurance that we wouldn't be affected, but damn we are totally wrong.

How about you guys, you directly affected by it? Do you think that if Lehman was saved by US government, Satoshi wouldn't push to create bitcoin? Or it is inevitable? The man himself will release it with or without the financial meltdown in 2008?

Satoshi started working on Bitcoin in 2007, he actually said that he wrote whitepaper after he developed the software. Also, Bitcoin had many predecessors from the previous years, so the movement for decentralized money was there long before the Lehman Brothers collapse and the 2008 crisis. The philosophy of decentralized money is not about simply distrusting the government and banks, it's about not trusting anyone with your money. It's probably just a coincidence that Bitcoin was launched during the crisis.
6655  Economy / Economics / Re: Could Artificial Intelligence Represent Bitcoins Most Neglected Appeal on: September 14, 2018, 09:48:22 AM

My question to you: can bitcoin's algorithm which alters mining difficulty to guarantee the last bitcoin is mined on may 7th, 2140 be considered a form of artificial intelligence?

With california replacing the bail process with an algorithm, perhaps this justifies bitcoin replacing economists and financial analysts with what might loosely be considered artificial intelligence?

Could this news article be considered acknowledgement algorithms or AI can do important jobs better than people. And so perhaps bitcoin represents a large leap forward in innovation due to its supply being determined via algorithm/AI rather than humans?

No, people should stop misusing the term "AI", and we definitely shouldn't confuse the public by telling that Bitcoin has AI in it's protocol. Leave these tricks to altcoiners, they love to use tech buzzwords to lure investors, Bitcoin should be better than that.

Currently by AI people usually mean adaptive algorithms like neural networks, but Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment is just a few "if" statements. PoW consensus as a whole is indeed a great invention, but it's hard or even impossible to apply it to non-cryptocurrency blockchains. We should focus attention on Bitcoin as a whole instead of disassembling it into parts and then thinking how to apply them elsewhere.
6656  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-12] Bitcoin Dominance Eyes 60% as Ethereum Price Flounders on: September 14, 2018, 08:34:30 AM
The most convenient option is to have non Ether token fees be pushed to the miners directly at protocol level. It will require a fork, and some level of re-organizing, but it's perfectly possible, and there actually seems to be quite some demand for this.

The second option is where an intermediary exchanger on the Ethereum network basically does the converting from x token to Ether and miners still get their Ethers, but that doesn't address the main issue with how you are still tied to Ether. It however does allow anything operating on Ethereum to operate without touching the underlying Ether token. In other words, more operational freedom.

The third option could be a mixture of both aforementioned options. Let miners pick what fee they think is the most economically attractive fee for them.

What's the goal of this change? It won't fix the biggest current problem of Ethereum - scalability, fees will still be high because blocks will be full, regardless in what form they are paid. I think it will be a good change because users won't have to keep track of how much Ether they have if they only want to use some tokens, but I don't see any benefits beyond that.
6657  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-09-11]YouGov Omnibus Study: 80% of Americans are Cognizant of Bitcoin on: September 14, 2018, 03:09:03 AM

I assume you meant so few own it.


My bad, made a typo.


Mass adoption can't happen overnight. We're talking about building a network from scratch. That 80% of Americans have heard of it is a totally new phenomenon. Would you expect all of them -- hundreds of millions of people -- to immediately go out and buy BTC (and then actually use it) just because they've heard of it? I certainly don't go out and buy something just because I'm aware of it.

Bitcoin has a steep learning curve. More than that, lots of people who've heard of it are skeptical due to its difficulty of use (for newbies) and years of bad press. Awareness is the first step. Adoption comes later. Wink

Nowadays adoption happens really fast, nearly everyone moved from cellphones to smartphones, Facebook has 2 billion users and so on. People pick up new things quickly if those things are useful, but Bitcoin isn't exactly new to most people, it's electronic money and they already have that. The benefits of being your own bank don't sound good for them. Something needs to change for adoption to come, otherwise we'll see only small gains.
6658  Economy / Economics / Re: Is the Blockchain overhyped? Blockchain Digital Transformation [Infographic] on: September 13, 2018, 03:26:47 PM
This infographic is not based on existing blockchain projects, it's based on the words of ICO's and companies that only promised how blockchain will be used in those cases. I'll believe that blockchain is useful when there will be blockchain products with millions of users. The fact that we haven't seen any successful applications since the beginning of blockchain hype can be a sign that the tech is overhyped.  It's not correct to compare it even with the dotcom bubble, because during that bubble the Internet already had users and there were solid companies around like Microsoft.
6659  Economy / Economics / Re: Money Matters on: September 13, 2018, 02:51:21 PM
Isn't it interesting that those who pontificate that "Money is not everything" usually have money?

Be broke for a few weeks unable to pay your bills, pay rent and afford basic necessities, and then let's see if you'd still hold the same position about money.

Let us be sincere and stop fooling around; MONEY IS SOMETHING! A very huge something!! At least in this present world. Might not be a big deal in another world. But in this world? Save me the sermon.

Without money in this world, rarely does anything get done. In fact, many things suffer needlessly without money. Even the Bible is flat-out frank enough to recognize the fact that money answers all things in the context of this present world. It doesn't say money is "the answer to all things" but it answers all things.

So please, before you sermonize me that money is not everything or that money is no big deal, credit my blockchain address with one thousand units of Bitcoin and forget about it. Then I'd believe you. In fact, I'd sing it along with you...money ain't nothing!

There's no fallacy here, usually those people don't say that money is nothing, they understand that it's very hard to be poor, what they are actually saying is that not everything in this world is about money, there are things that can not be bought with them. Sometimes money can even be a burden because some people will want to be around only because of your money (another reason why privacy is important). There are many poor people who are actually happier than some of the rich, that's the point of the phrase "money is not everything".
6660  Economy / Economics / Re: People are not motivated by money. on: September 13, 2018, 02:30:46 PM
I always hear the argument for capitalism "B bb BUT people won't innovate without the profit motive" WRONG

Humans want to solve problems, create, and innovate, they do not need money to motivate them.  Cavemen were painting art 20,000 years ago without the desire of money.

True scientists like Tesla, he didn't care about money it was about the pursuit of science.

Capitalism does not cause innovation, most new technology is found by government programs like nasa (internet, smartphones, etc)

1. The problem with socialism and other centralized systems is that innovators are at mercy of government officials, while under capitalism they have as money chances to convince investors as they want, or even find other ways of funding like crowdfunding or self-funding or loans.

2. The motivation argument is actually applied to workers. If you start giving away free stuff, a significant amount of population will just relax engage in leisure activities. This is why it was illegal in Soviet Union and other socialist countries to be unemployed.
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