A bubble is something that pops and that's it.

Bitcoin's resurrection from 2011 abyss was a proof that it is a revolutionary technology and capable of delivering unbelievable returns to speculators who don't sell prematurely. i.e. not a bubble

With a constant growth of 10% per day it takes only 4 days, 6 hours and 6 minutes!

I applied the standard analysis to the Just-Dice data, trying to post it here.

Findings:
- Somewhat small total number of investors causes random variance.
- 95% of investments belong to 20% of investors, trumping Pareto distribution of 80/20, and giving credence to consensus (OP) estimate of 95/20.
- Mean investment is BTC82 but median is only BTC2.6!
- 55% invest less than what I think is sensible to invest (BTC5) - given that investing inevitably brings overhead and time is money
- The second derivative test shows values between 0.25-0.58 which is fairly good considering random factors, but in addition there is a clear outlier in 0.01-0.1, which bracket sees more investors than there should be (the most popular bracket by number of investors is 1-10, by investment 100-1000)

Sourceforge shows 1,000 Bitcoin downloads in 2009, compared to 16,000 in 1-6/2010.

The first difficulty adjustment was in the turn of 2009-2010. By 6/2010, it had already risen to 20.

Then Mt.Gox was opened and coins immediately received much larger value than before.

I would think that there is a ratio of (successful installations:downloads).

That was also my original estimate, but it is unrealistic because then most of the accounts would need to be too small to be bothered.

None who reads this has a small bitcoin balance, but do you even know of people who have, say, less than BTC1?

Edit: thanks for the info. I need to process it carefully.

In land of the free you have to be rich to become rich. Even in Finland you can invest into whatever you like.

MtGox' problems have not crushed bitcoin, and it is unlikely that there would be much effect (anymore) if they vanished from the Earth.

I think MtGox played their demise quite gracefully as it did not bring severe market disruption.

This is a further proof that Bitcoin survives anything, but you need to be very careful to whom you trust your bitcoins.

Sorry to bring up this question repeatedly:
What do we know concerning number of users (now or at any time in history)?
- Blockchain activity?
- Downloads of Bitcoin client and wallet software
- Forum accounts
- Number of users in exchanges
- Number of users in other services
- Other ways of receiving this info

Bitcoin stocks are a good example of how stocks should be evaluated. Their valuations are low.

Why? If Bitcoin changes the world, the company will need to outdo bitcoin's appreciation. If Bitcoin does not change the world, the company is nevertheless toast.

Companies in fiat world have high valuations because fiat anyway loses value, and companies may be able to even profit from it if they are big enough. Earnings are guarantee to go up in inflating dollars. When this bubble pops, you will hear it.

Happened previously
- Satoshi started to run Bitcoin software 3.1.2009. In the initial months it was possible to generate bitcoins with CPU at an electricity cost of approx. $0.000,001/mBTC. Currently the easiest way to acquire them is to buy them at about $0.20/mBTC. The price of the currency unit has thus risen 200,000 times in less than 5 years. What is this phenomenon called Bitcoin?

Happened in previous episode 12.4.2013-18.6.2013
- rpietila explaining how he makes money with bitcoin
- Deduces bitcoin's long term target price of $300/mBTC
- Talking about Real Bills Doctrine
- Sent BTC13.37 to nkspace, an unknown forum troll
- Organized an international Bitcoin Summit in Finnish country hotel
- Developed concepts of Bitcoin Supernode System and Bitcoin Dealer Network Association
- Closed down due to declining health in anticipation of $1.400/mBTC

Happened after previous episode
- Calculation of the distribution of bitcoins between owners of different size

Happened in this thread
- Nothing so far

Nice story

Try to make him sell after each double instead. He nets much more and the bitcoins don't run out so quickly.

LOLOL

0.3 This covers the 30 days immediately following the quoted bet

Thank you. Heard about it before, now need to read carefully.

Very clever idea, and nicely thought-out system. The more probable dates will start to get selected soon

Is it so that if the exact date is not selected, prize goes to you (or to the nearest guess)?

Bookmarked.

Bitcoin can be forked, some are talking about canceling bitcoins that haven't been used for a certain time. These properties are not suitable for money, so people who find them more important than easy transactability, continue to keep PM in high regard.

Fiat is the sucker that will be destroyed.

I would like there be a all-encompassing historical price index for USDBTC.

I currently think that:
- Since Mt.Gox opened, at least until they started having difficulties last summer, it would be MtGox price.
- After the said difficulties, I don't know (help me!)
- Before the opening, the only datapoint I know is the pizza that was about 0.0025 $/BTC. Does anyone know of others that could be used?

Yes, this is the consensus. But actually this number has never been significantly higher. The thing is - there are certain properties of the distribution, and one of them is that if we take the average holding of people in a bracket, it is 2.8x the lower limit (if there are enough holders).

Therefore since we know that there are people with 100k+, we can estimate their number and multiply by 280,000.
For 10-100k, we also estimate the number and multiply by 28,000.
For 1-10k, multiply by 2,800.

The average number of coins of the people who have BTC1,000 or more is quite much higher than BTC1,000 and the number of people is commensurately lower.

When you slice and dice the numbers, you arrive at the conclusion that the number of 1kBTC+ holders has been about the same ever since. The number of 10k+ holders has decreased and smaller holders has increased.

In the nearest future, I expect the number of 1k-10k to suffer the most. I have also other predictions but first it would be nice to verify the current numbers. Help is still appreciated!

The purchasing power of the physical monetary stock of gold may actually go up. The paper gold charade will be destroyed along with dollar and all fiat currencies, which leaves only physical gold. At present, people think they collectively hold more gold that there is, which is one reason to gold's cheap price vs. the dollar, but the market cap (7T) is generally estimated using the actual stock. (Otherwise it would be maybe 70T which is not bad at all.)

If Bitcoin becomes uncontested, gold may experience a decline of value. Also silver may experience spikes. We continue to live in a world of uncertainty so the best bet is to distribute the bets in the ratio of your choosing.


50:1 is just my hunch and may be off. It is very hard to estimate these things and there is great fluctuation.

I would not buy altcoins just now, but the main reason is their short life. It is just not worth the hassle, also they are not bringing anything to the game. If litecoin dipped to 0.005 I might consider buying some but even then it would be a play, not a long-term investment in Litecoin's future, of which I know nothing.

Sure Litecoin will go up and down, XRP went to 100%+ of Bitcoin. It just tells that there is liquidity crunch and it is overvalued. I don't care about short-term moves.