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Tzupy just earned an ignore. See he has a trollface in his avatar!
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I think the value of bitcoin is at the expense of the other monies. So $6 trillion will be coming from fiat but also gold/silver I think. Knowing all fiat is valued around $30 trillion, gold $6 trillion and silver $0.5 trillion, taking an equal cut from each would take about $5 trillion from fiat and $1 trillion from gold/silver that is now in bitcoin, meaning gold/silver lost 20% of their value to bitcoin at that point. Step after that is total defeat...
Nobody would notice since gold/silver is quoted in fiat. Totally unrelated note - I get incensed when people talk about the supposed stability of fiat. The only thing that is stable in fiat, are the things that are fixed in terms of fiat, such as labor contracts. Relative to anything else, such as gold or silver or energy or general price index or other fiats, it is not uncommon to see 50% yearly fluctuations, and 10-20% is the norm. |
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Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100 BTC? It would be good if everyone who makes wild speculations regarding bitcoin where faced with that bet, perhaps there would be less rubbish and more sense in the community! It's particularly funny it's rpietilla offering the bet. Lol, he didn't take the "300k by the end of the year" bet  Yeah, what the hell, why is he betting against 10k for a year from now? haha Maybe he thinks it will be higher than 10k. No, I think in 12 months it likely is less than $10k: - 12 months ago it was $10 and now it is $200 so a 20-bagger - To reach $10k it would have to go up 50x. Not impossible by any means (from pizza to June2011 high is 13000-bagger  in 12 months). But I think the probability is less than 50% which makes me eager to take this side of a bet. To retain some credibility for a bull, I will be revising the $300k long term figure up, once I estimate, how high it should be revised. |
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Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100 BTC? no that is a ridiculous amount of money to bet on a hunch
(see what I did there) |
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Bitcoin will be trading at 10K this time next year.
No it won't. Wanna bet 100 BTC? |
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Ok, makes sense. So my silver 'inflation' rate estimate of 6/8% is wrong since there is about 20 Billion ounces of silver above ground, so it's likely around 4%. Still higher than economic growth so still will go down in purchasing power based on supply.
I agree with everything else, but still want to correct the logic above. IF we take the stock of 45B, we can take the flow of 0.7B, so flows:stocks = 1,6% IF we take the stock of 20B, we have to take the flow of 0.4B, because in this case some of the mining supply is instantly irrevocably dissipated. Therefore flows:stocks = 2,0%. To conquer silver, and later gold, Bitcoin needs to grow. The rise in market cap is a proof that we are talking seriously about Bitcoin being superior to them. Only after 1 bitcoin equals $300k in today's dollars, can we say that it has challenged gold (unless gold deepens its decline). |
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Good point, so either there is an enormous amount of silver available above ground, or the inflation rate is 6/8% per year.
Pick one, it's bad news either way.
Not wanting to sound arrogant, but I have literally written a book about this. About half of the 45-50Boz that is ever mined is still aboveground in recoverable form. A large part of the yearly mining is dissipated, but at least the stock is growing (silver was in structural deficit from 1940s to 2007). Silver is very volatile, because most of the "holdings" are distributed to households as silver items, which do not react quickly to rise and fall in price. The incredibly small stock in COMEX is many times leveraged. Speculators tend to have inverse demand curve that they always demand more when price goes up. Silver market is a mess because of many factors. |
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The amount of silver that is unrecoverable (higher expense than 2x Mining) is negligible.
Ah, in that case all the 45-50 Billion ounces is still aboveground, and the yearly mine production of 0.7B is less than 2%. Where do you get the other figures from? |
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Interesting. Why do you see not much point?
And inversely why do you find it wise for people with few capital to risk it all in bitcoin?
You might be right, I'm conflicted, so curious what your reasoning is.
A) If you are already rich, you can effortlessly buy BTC5k- BTC10k, no need to sacrifice anything. If you buy much more, then not only do you sacrifice, you become a target as you are among the largest bitcoin holders. If bitcoin takes off, everyone with BTC5k is ultra-rich, there is no practical difference to one with BTC50k. B) If you believe even 10% of what is written here, you realize that Bitcoin is the best that has happened or could happen to you. A person with only $10k can recuperate it easily by working, so it is not too great a risk to invest it all in bitcoin. |
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The liquidity in silver will dry up very easily, if the crisis hits. Already in 1999 the physical was almost out and 2008 it was in a serious shortage. The key to understanding this is to know that exchanges around the world deal only with about 200 Moz of actual silver, and the coinshops come second. 99% of the world's silver is not in any liquid form and will be unavailable to investors should something happen. If it is a reasonable thing to secure your share of the world's bitcoins, so is it with silver. I am delighted to see that bitcoin folks generally favor silver second only to bitcoin, and silver (&gold) people are flocking to bitcoins. This is a great synergy  I really disagree with this. In contrast to bitcoin and gold, the silver stock grows at a rate of 6/8% per year. The economy (products/services/assets) only grows by 1/2% per year so logic dictates that the purchasing power of silver will go down over time, as it indeed has done (long term). The gold stock only grows with 1/2% per year, same growth rate as economy. Bitcoin now grows at 5/10% per year but will not grow at all soon enough, which never happened with previous money, and therefore has the only fundamentals to increase in purchasing power over time. Maximum about 400Moz of the mine production stays aboveground. This is 2% of the total stock of 20B. So it is only slightly worse than gold. |
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A well-kept secret is that during Fall 2008, official graphs tell you that silver price tanked real bad. In fact, physical silver was the only asset that appreciated during the liquidity squeeze.
 This was not true where I live. Agreed that physical silver was hard to get for the official prices of $10, after it collapsed from $20. I'm pretty confident however that if you added say 20% over spot I would have gotten as much physical silver as I liked from the local dealers. So eventhough the premium on physical silver went up considerably indeed, the value of physical silver did drop hard during the liquidity crises of 2008. I find it hard to believe that it was different where you live. I can only speak from my own experience, which was sufficiently elaborated above. Yes, the dollar price of 1oz physical did go down from the top value reached in early March, 2008, but ceased going down in the autumn, when the liquidity crisis hit. And then it started even going up, and was very difficult to get, all the same time that the paper silver was sagging and making new lows. The gap closed the following year. By buying paper silver aggressively when few others believed that it will be honored, you could have made money. |
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It's a fail on his part and now that amount could crash the price.
Actually, by having the coins locked up for who knows how long, it increases the exchange rate. When Bitcoin becomes mainstream, it shouldn't have that much of an effect when they're finally liquidated. Why not much effect? When "bitcoin goes mainstream" 50M today may be 5B Percentage on seizure was about 1% of total coins, and should have about the same relative effect to the price if they are abruptly liquidated, regardless what the exchange rate is, (as long as bitcoin's monetary stock is very much smaller than dollar's). |
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What will the price of BTC be when 22 million people want 1 BTC each? No idea. But at that point, having 100,000,000 satoshis will be considered a status symbol. "Wow! You have a WHOLE bitcoin?" "Yeah, but I'm not gonna spend any of it because I like seeing 1.00000000 in my wallet." I guess there could be some strange persons like that, maybe they should buy 1.2 just incase they want to spend some. Hahaa... for some time I have encouraged to buy a little bit more over the "cold storage" amount. Like BTC1,200 |
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You Have even more options: of you have people you trust you can distribute parts of the key to them (for example using shamir secret sharing). It's questionable whether you'd want this. In case of torture maybe you want to be able to give then access. But it is possible to protect your holdings even against that, albeit not without introducing some other risks.
Hah, I just realized that my bitcoin security arrangements are so elaborate that if I am not in top mental condition, even I myself am unable to access my bitcoins. So if somebody wants them when I am well, he may succeed by asking nicely. But by causing physical or mental harm, he also makes the bounty inaccessible to everyone. Interesting. |
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Love this thread, it's fascinating and finally got me to register here instead of just lurking.
Hi, after having so many mentions of you, it is cool to have you here How well is this holding up against the Pareto principle (the "80-20 rule")?
...
So I think you need to move about BTC2m down from the top 4 rungs to the bottom 3.
Pareto principle is not a magical formula, for example in the United States, 20% of people own 85% of wealth. Now we have 20% owning 95% which admittedly is quite top-heavy. But bitcoin ownership is not universal yet, which makes it immature to run this kind of test yet. Ripple ownership would not pass  Since the distribution must keep its shape (you cannot add more coins to a lower bracket, because that would lift those people to the higher bracket, prompting an increase of coins where you wanted a decrease to happen), your suggestion can be achieved only by reducing the number of Bitcoin users significantly to 100-200k and making the distribution more equal and concentrated in BTC5-50, which I don't think agrees with the known largish number of larger holders. |
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He might have struck a deal. Gave them access to the wallet in exchange for dropping the murder charges. In recent Forbes article there's no mention of him facing murder chargers anymore.
Sorry, I was talking about the off-topic of knightmb, and even my own experiences. |
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Have you looked into master coins ( see my signature), what do you think of it?
I haven't made my mind yet. I am not early adaptor type, but when I buy, I buy big |
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Is there any evidence that he is behind the prank?
Note: in my case there never was any, and the chief investigator admitted it in the beginning, yet they confiscated all my property for 7.5 months..
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So as a quick read, they suspected him of an unrelated crime and investigation created lots of grief to him and the family. Just enough hints that the real issue is that he is having too many bitcoins and/or being too vocal about them. Poor guy, but good to see that he is still active in the forum. The same trick was played on me on 2008 (due to silver, which prior to bitcoin was the lynchpin of the monetary economy) and it actually worsened my mental condition a lot. The good side is that I made my fortune as a result because I got a LOT more credibility for my claim that the govt hates silver, and as a result you should buy some from me |
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This just isn't the same climate, with the same risks, as 6 months ago. $100 is long gone, pending very, very bad and improbable news.
IF somebody is afraid of $100 and wants to hedge against, I am willing to write the puts. Procedure: - You select parameters (length, strike) - I quote the price - You pay the BTC- If before maturity you want to sell bitcoins to me at Strike (say, $100), I am obligated to buy them and pay $$ - If it expires, I get to keep the premium you paid. |
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