IF everyone is a holder then I see that as mutually assured destruction, BTC is for using and thats what gives it worth.   Monetary velocity to some extent expands the valuation possible for pricing BTC as the exchange raises worth within a digital economy, just holding is very plain and frozen in comparison.   Its the diversity of usage that creates value really.    I think its not quite as alarming as it could be we have entered a stage of BTC being an easily hedged asset and that occurs off chain, so we have a depth and add layers to the market and thats a positive.

Portfolio balancing is essential for normal investment vs risk.    Especially over a larger time period such as BTC has been around, people do need to trim back their risk as they get a bit older and start to hold assets related to their costs such as housing.

People do influence the major competitions by cheating in the qualifiers.   But also it has been known for the most successful pro players in a particular area or country to be using cheats.   Valve I know has become alot more paranoid about this possibility by conducting checks and literally watching gameplay as it occurs on each team members computer.    At the same time esports is a modern phenomena, in the past there was far less chance to receive an actual wage hence the temptation to sell off your participation to betting gangs who dictate the outcome ahead of time.    
   I've got no doubt cheat and throwing does still occur but its far less and I believe caught far earlier on, its mostly down to tournament organiser to ensure integrity to the game and they have everything to lose if seen to be lacking.

Last article I saw was about a correlation between Bitcoin and gold, however people might disagree and point out rather large differences between the two.   I generally have to agree but only to a limited extent, both are inverse to the dollar and both could rise if Dollar were compromised in some way.
   The part that surprises me now is the idea a war or conflict of some kind in the middle east is somehow disruptive to the Dollar.   Since Iran is subject to sanctions, why would this raise BTC and gold and I can only think that both are alternatives to dollar and sanctions are levied largely via that dollar central control I guess.

That is the main drawback, somewhere the gold must exist physically which means the system will be based on a centralised trust type system subject to confiscation and other types of loss.    The accounting could be done via blockchain to be more transparent perhaps but the actual security will still be reliance on conventional business and legal systems.
   I have some involvement with crypto use for gold purchasing and it just ended up being hijacked by red tape from central government unfortunately.   Gold is not that well suited to very small transactions in this way, it requires major backing to operate indirectly and then you are reliant on that backer.

7 days was over ambitious but this month was a fair guess.    Seems like price action has the momentum to go places, I'm going to watch the 2 day average and see how it catches up to the active real time price.   Then we must observe how it reacts to this equalisation of prices and if are once again bullish or possibly stall or top out short term.    A pull back before 10000 is what I expect but there are many possibilities on the table just thats how I view the tracks ahead.

Good luck to start is fine for those who know not to be greedy but being spoilt, uneven and unreasonable in their expectations going forward will be unfortunate because at some point your luck peaks and a good gambler will know when they already did well and not to be ungrateful or you lose that feeling of being at the top.    Worst idea is to chase a loss or expect the game deserves to return you some good luck when it can be unfair for longer then you can stick around.
   The main purpose is never to make money, its the bonus and somehow some geniuses can return a consistent return but they likely be gambling for years and years and gained a few crumbs of experience on every loss to build into something of a strategy to win which is rare as hens teeth I think.

We're way up consistently for a while now.     Its had alot of momentum since year start and the only faltering I really see is the loss at times of the 2 day average but its kept the weekly average which is the real short term line for a strong positive phase.    Its slightly extended now, it could pull back and still be quite bullish to continue and I have to predict that its going to be attempting the 200 day before any idea of returning to the 50 day to confirm pricing there.  



Here 2 day is blue and orange is a roughly weekly moving average, above there I keep expecting it to in sum total stay positive and repeatedly resolve upwards.

Gold is used in more electronic devices then ever but in far smaller finer precise amounts then was true in the 1980's   Technology has brought us a long way and finer circuits are the norm now, its far less profitable to recycle a new motherboard over the really ancient technology.


Gold as a metal is in a bull market for over a decade.  The reasons are monetary, central banks are net buyers for a long time because we have such loose monetary policy world wide to an extent we are more reliant on debt and the promise to repay then any other time for hundreds of years.    Its very likely we peak in this promises meta and politics control of economies and return to commodities and basic supply and demand, part of that will be gold but we hope also technology such as Bitcoin is greatly useful for security.

I'm not especially optimistic on BTC until people find a reason to hold or gain even while price is falling.   A super basic example would be interest gained by holding a deposit somewhere, I guess some exchanges do allow people to lend out their BTC at some rate for shorting purposes or lend capital to a business.  The more there is of that, the greater baseline we have to the BTC price.
   I personally go long and short on BTC at the same time, on different accounts and with various cost or benefit.   Ideally that's possible while price falls and not be so affected by price variations.

Contrast adds clarity.    The lack of liquidity could be new trends such as indirect trading where a trustee holds the BTC and then various parties gain ownership via a nominee type system.  That'd make some sense as Bitcoin has become more accepted as its own kind of asset class, at least by some that has been the case.
  I would far rather see Bitcoin actually used not stored and used indirectly in this way.   I think many believe BTC will only achieve its highest value in direct use as some replacement for FIAT.    I dont know FIAT will ever release its grip but I would agree BTC has to be as usable and accessible as possible not the elites but in the hands of the smallest 'bits' to society and the economy.


Its a variety of reasons always, Im quite wary of where we become centered around one theme only.  Obviously excessive speculation is the most obvious repeated example where quick reversal is damaging to any commodity.

Its mostly a repeat or cycle and iteration of a continued theme which is volatile growth.   BTC was national news in 2013, long discussion pieces on this new technology then it had a lull etc.   Mostly as a source we have unstable FIAT standards to sell or advertise the benefits of being independent of just one ecosystem especially where that currency is isolated from actual real trade.
   The main take away is that though population varies, does it generally increase and I believe it does.   Its important that utility continues to improve to justify the attention and reliance people place upon on it, or we may get a competitor to the crown which in open capitalism is always possible.

Thats probably true, though the dips are harsh we seem to maintain above the old highs though it may be years back & a harsh pull back.   We do advance forward nominally and so it continues to justify a long term bullish stance.   What I would really like to do is better time my involvement and avoid being negative while we accumulate in price but also not be caught up in believing price always rises, it wont it falls harshly when and if market demands it.

Price being very positive recently which gives alot of hope and positivity to the bulls.    Got to look if we have a clear path, I think a natural point for some profit taking could be previous weekly lows in July and August which matches 200 day average



We quite a way past 50 day and even a yearly average so its fairly steady based rise for that 10k 'dream' price.   Watch around 9k to 9100 for any reaction I guess.

It could even be 10k viewed from a more distant weekly view presuming a break of final resistance amounts to a larger move possible



Theres more detail within the picture and likely areas of hesitation such as the 200 day average at like 9100.
   Have to say its turning into a more bullish look recently though I never expect it to run straight lines like its on a railway track, its more like a monster truck rally :p

Rising wedge it looks like -

Should I be bullish right now because my guess is not that especially.   My general take is we hit all walls on the squash court, without a clear to one direction I expect to hit the 50 day average down below before we react further.   Right now its just going sideways, some might think different but I dont take it as some positive when doing nothing much.   A pullback isnt especially negative either.

Shorting Bitcoin means you are long dollar but we neglect to look at Dollar as part of the price or any price.   Impossible to say a trade is all wrong for someone else, most of us have too much exposure to dollar worth via pensions etc.    Both have a changing value, I'm not sure I love the idea of going long Dollar long term but shorting is usually a short term call and a swing trade possibly.    Didnt we already fall enough to say shorting now is a bit late to be a swing trade.   So its a day trade type of activity to short now, thats how I'd view it.

I think we retest the 50 day this week possibly.  Weekly bars looks more bullish then other views.

Its better to recognise realistic chances I reckon.   A man with a system is a dangerous thing, mostly to himself unless he remains on balance in recognising the correct odds vs the endeavour made.   If I wager I hope to be playing in the region of where the actual chances might be but too many people using a system are mistaken in thinking they'll get it all back with profit.   If they start with 1 sat bet and use that system, the maximum profit will be 1 sat if I remember rightly.   Its a way to play the game and avoid risk but its a mistake imo.

Stable at 8k because thats some resistance with a trend over medium term.   I think that slight decline ongoing has some giving up their speculative long, that puts us back to test the 50 day average at 7500 area.
   A small reset is reasonable,  we can break upwards but quite often the price takes a running jump to clear a wall like this I guess.

A 1 Satoshi bet means you really didnt gamble anything at all, it was just a test run which I understand the attraction of especially late night after much drinking.   But 1000 sat isnt especially going to hurt either and you might actually get some pennies back on a win instead of more pocket lint.   
   The only thing I'm thinking of that people have mentioned before on this forum is that silly idea of doubling the bet every attempt, starting with 1 sat might be desirable to those eternally hopeful people.   I can save you the effort, Martin is wrong :p dont use that nonsense.

Actually even better then that, if you gain the BTC then its even giving interest on it I guess immediately.   In theory you could just take the interest as a daily free spend or gamble, etc.  win forever


Is that the case though, times past the brand was a maker of tractors but mostly these one off designs.  Now Lambo is part of the VAG group, I got a feeling they have a far wider network of support possible which in theory means it might be alot cheaper to repair and replace parts but cant say I've checked.    Lambo Off Road model next ?  they make the worlds fastest   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIYPHPumKVU

Click a link given on their twitter or from my signature might work better.   So far as I can tell that particular field is supposed to be optional, when I went via twitter it let me leave it blank.

https://twitter.com/LuckyBitGame