people, just watch out and be careful. The weekend is approaching, and its a long weekend. I'd say the odds are 50:50 that we break through, and then fall back, or that we fall back first, take a breath and then run up to a second attempt. My reasons for that guess? Just common sense. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) I've reduced my exposure by about 50% for this reason. We may just bump up through 90, and if we do, the price will run up a bit... but to be honest there seems to be a bit of resistance -- I think people are mindful of the long weekend ahead, particularly with what happened last weekend. "On the third day Bitcoin rose again" -- My bet is Monday will be an excellent day to buy. A bit of a horizontal run will actually do us wonders. The crackpot bears with their "zoomed out chart, therefore crash", will look a bit silly if we go sideways for a few days.
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Any thoughts on the price action in the next 12 hours? USA/Europe winding down, Asia waking up...where are we going in your estimation? Just curious. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I think it could go either way today. China is jittery and following Gox movement, which is also jittery. I think given what happened last weekend, many will be waiting for this long weekend to pass to see what happens. 4 days of potentially low liquidity. Should be a good buying opportunity on Easter Monday IMO. I've reduced my exposure by about 1/2 until then. I too think that it might go up or down. Or sideways ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) That would be the ideal scenario I think:Would make for some real rocket fuel next week
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Any thoughts on the price action in the next 12 hours? USA/Europe winding down, Asia waking up...where are we going in your estimation? Just curious. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I think it could go either way today. China is jittery and following Gox movement, which is also jittery. I think given what happened last weekend, many will be waiting for this long weekend to pass to see what happens. 4 days of potentially low liquidity. Should be a good buying opportunity on Easter Monday IMO. I've reduced my exposure by about 1/2 until then.
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I think we'll slice through $100 easily, but probably not right now. I think now we have a heady combination of nervous new hands, and lots of resistance, going into a long weekend with potentially relatively low liquidity on the exchanges.
I think Mt Gox USD/BTC will try to drop today, but can't go too low as it will be held up by buying pressure for EUR/BTC and from other exchanges (they've been stronger all week). We could see a fairly significant dip down to high 70's over the next 3 days though. I imagine this will cause a little bit of panic-sell.
All will be well on Easter Monday though -- on the third day, BTC will rise again, and we'll be gunning for the $100s.
That's where my money's at anyway. I think BTC will emerge much stronger for it.
Looks like it's starting already...
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@BitPirate
Sorry but you're using past performance as evidence of future performance, so I'm disregarding it. And the announcements of Wordpress and Namecheap were months ago, so it would be quite a delayed reaction if that's what's causing this move.
The only thing of value to me that you've mentioned is wallet adoption, so I'll look into that.
I'm content in letting this rest as it is, but I appreciate your help.
I'm not at all predicting future performance. You may want to re-read. I was providing a case for Bitcoin's value not being overblown. Actually you didn't ask me to predict future performance. Which is good, because I can't. What I can tell you is that the risk of failure is fairly constant over time. I also _consider_ that the risk of a steep decline is offset by buying pressure at lower prices. There was strong evidence for this during the block chain fork. Hope this helps.
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BTW, I should also add -- I wouldn't deride WordPress, Reddit or Namecheap. The first is an Internet phenomenon with a massive network effect. The latter I would consider the #2 registrar after Godaddy. WordPress is beyond huge.
Yes, they are just Internet names, but we have to start somewhere and the network effects from these big names in the industry will be very positive. If adoption continues in this vein, BTC will have a very high future utilisation.
Furthermore, it is entirely reasonable to speculate on the future trade value of BTC now, not after the fact. Bitcoin market cap is still far below that of PayPal and will be for a long time.
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I'm expecting some reasonably sound metrics on a fundamental adjustment that is commanding a 500% increase in valuation. What I'm getting is statistics about reddit readership and pointing to fringe services like Wordpress, Namecheap, Reddit and Mega. Does no one have hard statistical data of new user adoption that is said to be causing this move? I haven't seen it, all I see is "look at this useless number that can indicate one of several different things, but I'm going to cherrypick the one that makes me say I can get $100 for my BTC." As far as I can see, the user base is expanding, and speculation:usage ratio is stable or decreasing. You say it but you don't show it, what the hell. Can I see some reporting on hard numbers? Did MtGox publish some whitepaper on this? I don't understand. I actually posted this twice in this forum already -- there's a search function you can use. It's not like "is BTC overvalued?" is a rare topic on this subforum, after all :-) Anyway; I'll bite. Here you go: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jfwhome.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2Fbtratio-1024x607.png&t=665&c=VzxrrL_cG8-zuw) You can see that the overall level of speculation is high, but as a ratio to overall transactions, it has actually been decreasing since late last year. The previous bubbles are very pronounced if you zoom out, but -- I'll be honest -- it's impossible to establish cause/effect for these ones. Jury's still out IMO: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jfwhome.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2Fbtspikes-1024x587.png&t=665&c=2UWwvT4QnzYpSw) You can also check blockchain.info "my wallet" adoption as a surrogate measure of overall usage. Find that yourself. As far as I can see, the user base is expanding and accelerating -- not linearly but not quite exponentially either, with a significant increase in gradient this year. This should be having an exponential impact on the price. That's what I'm seeing. Here's CNY:BTC over the past year on a log chart. Doesn't look unexpected to me. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jfwhome.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2Fbtcny.png&t=665&c=_kMvPnJNpSlW7g) I'm interested in discussing both points of view sensibly, but may I ask you to tone down your attitude a bit please? "What the hell" indeed -- and quite why you "expect" anything from the rest of us is beyond me.
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Furthermore, any chart zoomed out to years-long timescale of nascent market, will look absolutely like that -- exponential or above growth as new users flood in. The previous crash happened at a totally different point of development of Bitcoin. BTC is not immune to crashes -- but posting a zoomed out chart does nothing to show it will crash now. Here is a more sensible chart. It's not even log scale! ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fferroh.com%2Fcharts%2F10day_small_zero.png%3F1364400244&t=665&c=KdYUGB24ff9BUg) Hell, over 60 days it doesn't even look that bad! ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fferroh.com%2Fcharts%2F60day_small_zero.png%3F1364400244&t=665&c=iCSVaCJugj0Acw)
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Exactly!
There are markets all over the world where BTC is selling right now for ~$90.
If you don't think it's worth it, the burden of proof is on YOU.
As far as I can see, the user base is expanding, and speculation:usage ratio is stable or decreasing.
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I don't understand this.
A trade takes two -- a buyer and a seller. The govt can't forcibly buy my bitcoins, and I'm not ready to sell all of them.
If they just come in and buy most or all of what people are willing to sell, that would be great -- the price would just be driven up.
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All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.
During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.
Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.
Random theory: A lot of the new money is coming from Asia and Europe while most of the old Bitcoins were mined and held by Americans. As the new money comes in the old, weak, feeble hands of the Americans dump. Europe, I think. In China we tend to just track Gox -- albeit about half a $ higher when settled. Volume is still very thin. My mind boggles at the thought of my colleagues in the finance sector here all catching on to Bitcoin... hence https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158226.msg1686229#msg1686229
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This is just the same shit we had from 'Zyphus' and his friends last week. The post above with falso rumours should actually be moderated. Differing opinion is good. Purposely false rumours aren't...
But you can't know if they are false rumors before the events have played out. Also, we need someone to be BTC bears, there are enough BTC cheerleaders in here. Do these 'cheerleaders' understand how Bitcoin works as well, and what roles Proof of Work, HashCash and the like or Public-key cryptography play in Bitcoin? Don't get me wrong, I believe in BTCs and understand their potential but I think we need someone to be skeptical as well. Otherwise, we turn into a reality ignoring cult. Also, I am tired of people yelling "FUD" whenever someone discusses potential threats against Bitcoins. Agree, but I think this crosses the line from "skeptical" to "nefarious". If BTC were stocks (and fortunately it is not, but still...), this kind of posting would be illegal.
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I would use it to design and print 1,000 mini flyers in Chinese explaining what bitcoins are and how to buy them, and arrange to have them distributed in the white collar business districts in Shanghai.
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All the action seems to have come from the Eurozone today -- all movement was during morning hours in Europe and afternoon in Asia.
During US daylight hours, things seem to have slowed down.
Quite a milestone in China, we breached CNY500. That's quite a chunk of change.
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Where do you see resistance, siu? Just look here and answer where do you see any kind of resistance in all way from $13? ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sierrachart.com%2Fimage.php%3Fl%3D1364387774765.png&t=665&c=Ps1f17OjIKohmg) in hourly... $80 has been like the $50, i thought $100 was going to be another barrier, not $75-$80. I was just wondering. After all $50 to $75 was fairly quick and explosive as you describe. EDIT: i guess a bigger explosion has yet to come Honestly, do you think $75 - $80 is resistance, or old hands/manipulators creating walls to cool things down? I don't think the market is as free as you like to think.
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Well, after waking up to see the price at $87 I thought that maybe, maybe we might have to slow down a bit. This is an incorrect assumption.
Bids are STILL about 9.5mil USD while asks are below 50k BTC. These indicators have remained unchanged throughout this burst.
The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up. If they believe it is a great idea to sell <$100, it may take until next week before we see it. Friday is bank holiday in Europe, so the peak for a week should definitely come tomorrow. ^My thoughts exactly. It's actually quite slow-going, particularly compared to last week; with no real walls of resistance in the 80's.
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In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish. Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.
Things are looking pretty bullish :-) Thanks, Proudhon!
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This is just the same shit we had from 'Zyphus' and his friends last week. The post above with falso rumours should actually be moderated. Differing opinion is good. Purposely false rumours aren't...
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I'll be surprised if it doesn't touch $100 today but I have a feeeling it could hover around the $90-$100 mark for a couple of days before making a break upwards.
Could we be on course for a weekend rally ?
We're headed through $100 (and much higher) sooner or later. But don't be too disheartened about this weekend if it doesn't pan out quickly. The banks will be shut for up to 4 days for easter.
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If we do, we will (temporarily) fall straight back down again.
I see short spurts of fast price increases, but I don't see any sustained parabolic move. Most of the week it has been fairly linear growth.
It's a possibility, but I think we'll start finding walls in the mid-90s. The 80s never were going to be very memorable.
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