Not much going on in here so I might as well throw this question out:
If you want to buy for a large amount, say between $ 50k and $ 200k, what is usually the be way to buy them on the exchanges? I guess somekind of limit order would be preferable?
I have moderate experience in buying such quantity from an exchange. It is difficult to give good advice, because it depends a lot on the exchange, the general mood, and the players in the exchange. If there are big sellers watching, it may be good to set up a wall near the market, this will induce them to sell without slippage for both. This approach may, however, be detrimental in boom days, where a big bid wall just prompts other bidders higher. If you dare to bring scarecoins to the particular exchange, it is possible to pretend to be on the sell side with big walls, while actually purchasing nimbly. Even more aggressive tactic is to batter the price down with a supposed flood of coins (very few of which are actually for sale though) and purchase 5-10% cheaper. Before doing anything creative it is important to familiarize yourself with the exchange in question, plus the market situation. Sirius Money looks good. +1  |
|
|
|
 If I remember correctly this pattern on weekly is called "bullish engulfing" which is a reversal pattern. What it practically means is that it should go above 105 and stay above it, then reversal is confirmed and it is rally time for 5-15 weeks. For all I know it could end up above 500$. On clarkmoody's weekly chart we have quite an awesome hammer in reversal pattern too (they build weekly chart a bit differently there) Also the fact that all the bitcointalk bulls are so bearish is a dead giveaway that market will actually reverse to punish the suckers as it always tries to inflict the maximum pain on them. Moreover, on daily chart (clarkmoody), it appears today we have broken over descending trendline on high volume simultaneously going over both moving averages at the same time. Lots of technicals are pointing to reversal. Your typical TA guru here would be advising to wait a few days for confirmation i.e. a few more daily candles closing above 105$ to get a high probability entrance onto the next up legs that is likely to develop into the x-mas from here on. As I have predicted earlier all the suckers who bought in 260's have sold all their coins to those suckers who sold in 70's by now, as such the market have no purpose to stay here and it can finally move on. [..] Let's actually wait and see. So we've waited and we've seen it (more to come). Who called the bottom? (Note that quoted chart is automatically updated and the call was made on July 12th) As of now, it looks like it was a good call  |
|
|
|
- I am also back to work, doing OTC.
So you recuperated completely? I think after 6 more months I am back at "normal". It takes time. |
|
|
|
Seems to me like the amount of value being traded has, when you take into account prices, increased. I mean 50k coins at $10 each is less then 5k at $130.
Which is already reflected in the higher price. IMO BTC volume is the appropriate indicator. Agreed. And we are preaching an all time low in terms of coin supply at Gox. It looks to me that there's very little new fiat going to Gox, and very little coins being offered. I (for one) cannot currently justify using Gox for storing either fiat or BTC. I did store 1000+ BTC there for more than a year so apparently I trusted them more back then, (or BTC was cheaper..) - No real reason to buy from there, as Bitstamp's liquidity is enough for me. - Feels risky to sell there, since I am waiting for my first withdrawal. Meanwhile: - Localbitcoins has grown a lot and is already a major source of volume. - Bittiraha.fi in Finland is doing more volume extraexchange. - I am also back to work, doing OTC. We are moving away from Gox-centric world. In my observance, the total volume we have now, is actually brisk when taking into account the insecurity concerning Gox, the holiday season, and the aftermath of the minibubble in April: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl(It is increasingly more evident that there never was a bubble in 2013, not any more than the Pirate event in 2012. The only bubble Bitcoin has experienced so far was in June 2011, and that was a bear trap. Bulls made anything north of 300% in 2 years =) ) |
|
|
|
when there's a bit too much bullish sentiment around.. i get this urge to start selling If you make your decisions based on what a couple people post on one forum on the Internet then yes, please sell. Having lived through the booms and busts since 2010, I would classify the present situation as "relief". This is still a negative sentiment. It takes several months and several doublings of price from the current levels to develop a mania. |
|
|
|
Something i've been asking myself. Say you buy a house in only bitcoin without paying taxes on it, followed by a visit from the IRS. You say you bought the house in bitcoin, what can they do? Can they throw you in jail or fine you for that since you used an "erschatz" currency?
Here (Finland) they would require you to declare a bitcoin sale equivalent to the value of the house, and tax 24% of the gross amount. You cannot escape the capital gains tax. You can in countries without capital gains taxes. Without going into details, after being born into country with CGT, it is rather difficult to get totally free in a short period of time. Such countries claim the right to tax you for several years even after you have severed all reasonable ties to the original country ("your mother still lives there so we'll tax you..."). |
|
|
|
Something i've been asking myself. Say you buy a house in only bitcoin without paying taxes on it, followed by a visit from the IRS. You say you bought the house in bitcoin, what can they do? Can they throw you in jail or fine you for that since you used an "erschatz" currency?
Here (Finland) they would require you to declare a bitcoin sale equivalent to the value of the house, and tax 24% of the gross amount. You cannot escape the capital gains tax. |
|
|
|
please explain how a BUY of bitcoins is "fiat leaving". If it's indeed capital flight from gox in the form of bitcoins, those have to be SOLD in order for fiat to leave the bitcoin system.
Yes, and even if this were the case, we are talking strictly that fiat stays fiat (with no net effect to bitcoin demand). 1. If there was selling pressure of bitcoins, the price would be trending down. 2. What we are witnessing, is large-scale buying. There is not so much evidence from the trade records that this buying is offsetted by selling in other exchanges. So a large part of Gox is not capital flight (isn't it ironic that bitcoin is the best way to move fiat capital around these days?), rather it is legitimate buying for investment. (Of course buying and selling volume must every moment exactly equal. Therefore a price shooting up is labeled "increased buying" and conversely.) Can ya'll stop quoting walsoraj?
+1. |
|
|
|
I think a lot of people realize that even with the insolvency/seizure risk (and low float rate) it might still better to hold six figures (or more) on an exchange rather than withdrawing and declaring taxes on it. This obviously depends on our cost/benefit analysis.
They can mitigate this risk by buying BTC when the exchange has a cash flow problem or is facing regulatory scrutiny.
One could analyze the cost/benefit ratio this way: One could determine the risk of holding X sum of money on a given exchange (or multiple exchanges) and subtract a conservative amount of risk for proper management (i.e. going all-in to BTC when the risk of seizure/insolvency increases). They could determine the tax liability as well, which is the risk of withdrawal. Compare these risks against each other and one can determine whether it is safer to keep USD on an exchange (with the caveat that it must be converted into BTC, exposing one to exchange rate risk, when the regulatory or cash flow issues present themselves) or to accept the tax liability.
Obviously we can argue all day and night over which strategy has more risk, since some of the risks aren't easily quantifiable. We don't really have the data to asses this (we'd need everything from WMA bitcoin exchange float rates to % recoverable funds to current "bitcoin VIX" or downside move stats tax liabilites in various jurisdictions) but I'm sure there are some people who are starting to realize they can use the exchanges as a 'non-anonymous yet no-tax-liability so long as I don't withdraw' offshore bank account to some degree, holding their fiat there forever and then purchasing, shuffling and anonymizing BTC for purchase OTC or to anonymously/pseudonymously purchase real goods and services without having to declare the income first. I'm not saying this is an invincible strategy, but the law enforcement burden would be enormous, and there are most likely rich folks out there doing exactly what I have described.
EDIT: In case the feds are reading, I don't have anywhere near enough money to even consider myself "a rich person trying to evade taxes on the internet," so please don't waste tax dollars investigating my broke a$$. I'm merely speculating on what these bastards are doing with the bitcoin price.
Good thinking. We the rich, prefer to invest cold-bloodedly, and assess the risks in percentages. In my case, for example, selling bitcoins from my long-term personal holding (which has never been dipped into), would result in 24% tax of the amount sold (since it is practically all profit, measured in fiat). Even if there is 50% probability of Gox going belly up this year, and in 20% probability this will lead to the total loss of BTC holdings there, the estimated loss is only 10% (50%*20%). Much less than the loss to taxman by selling the coins. Government has confiscated physical gold and silver from me, my companies and my customers in 2008. It is not that all the value confiscated will be indefinitely kept by the government, because it is illegal and unpractical for them to do so. The risk premium (discount applied when my customers bought silver in gov custody, to be delivered when it is returned to me) was 10% during the time. The metals were held for 7.5 months, returned in full after the investigation and no charges were filed. The feds are threatening the bitcoin holders with unlawfully long process times. They don't have the authority to take and keep your bitcoins without due process, not any more from Mt.Gox than your personal holdings. |
|
|
|
I'm not convinced that bubble money isn't just being redistributed right now. How much fresh money do we think is flowing into the exchanges?
I'd be curious to see an update from that guy who was charting forum activity over time.
It is't forum activity but the next best thing. Google trend seems to level out at about 15% of peak. Before it it was at 5%.  Bullish: price rises while google trends is low. Why? If trend goes higher, it raises the price even more. Whereas if trend spikes, we are due for a reversal (as evidenced in Apr -13). |
|
|
|
However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere.
I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp.
Bitstamp has 5k less coins in their Ask compared to 1-2 weeks ago. Most likely, they have all been move to Gox to sell. I believe the buying pressure in Bitstamp has just consumed the coins. Gox situation is special. I don't believe that their bid side comes from true demand, because it is so much easier to use other exchanges for buying, and their price is also much lower. To me it seems that most of Gox bids are money trying to escape Gox in the form of bitcoins. This money is orginally as Gox-USD, and most of the owners want it converted back to USD after escaping from Gox. It does not change the total bitcoin supply-demand, because it is both originally and eventually USD. Bitcoin is therefore used only as a value transmit mechanism for Gox-USD. |
|
|
|
a break of $115 (if sustained) is truly bullish (wether driven by gox crap situation or not doesn't matter)
If price rises in Gox, all or part of it can be attributed to Gox crap situation (and dismissed as evidence). However, if price rises in other exchanges, that can only be because of bitcoin demand exceeding supply. You cannot twist it anywhere. I would therefore closely follow the pricing in Bitstamp and others, and that has been on a rise lately. It is tempting to think that the going price is $120 (Gox), but I would more likely put it at $103. If I were to buy, I would not try to send money at Gox to buy at 20% premium, I would use Bitstamp. |
|
|
|
what did I miss? is this a news based rise?
Are you new here? The only 'news' that causes price to rise is whale buys. There is a significant lag from publicity to action. Just think about yourselves - how many months it took from the first hearing about bitcoin to taking position? Mine was about 12 months of active following before I bought any bitcoins. The great majority that heard in the great media bombardment in this February-April (perhaps 100 times more people heard about bitcoin this year, compared to 2011), has yet to purchase anything. We are currently in a stage where every single purchase by these people is viewed as something special. No, these are all early adapters from this "attention batch". The adoption curve will get steeper, and this will also increase the price. I don't believe that the recent news are cause of much anything. Not many are following the bitcoin news now. It is the great masses that heard earlier this year, a certain percentage of them will invest a certain percentage of their portfolio, that will determine the bitcoin price in the months going forward. |
|
|
|
It still feels slow...  One month, and only up +50%. It feels like February then... 300k USD per BTC by the end of the year, or are you in denial of facts? Indeed, could you hurry up with the 300k USD Bitcoin? Otherwise I'll have to seek employment by the end of the year  I think the "300k by the end of year" does not happen. It would have been nice but the facts point the other way now. That we experienced a runup from (about) 10 to (about) 100 in the first months of this year is an amazing feat. Hopefully you all were invested at the time. The weekly and monthly charts speak for the resilience of bitcoin price. The overshoot 100->300 was for the lucky few who managed to cash out. Long term, if bitcoin, or crypto in general, is to have any impact in society at large, it must be 100-1000 times bigger. Thus any prices we see in the remainder of this year, will be cheap. |
|
|
|
It still feels slow... One month, and only up +50%. It feels like February then... |
|
|
|
Its got to, everything says overbought. IDK about below $100, there is a big wall forming.
$101 seemed like a safe bet but its all stalled at like $105-104.
I think not!   +1 |
|
|
|
It wouldn't surprise me if every single whale buy since $65 was by a different person. There are a lot of people very interested in this new phenomenon, and they each have their own circumstances, plan, entry point, tolerance for goxxing, and fear of missing the train.
+1 Yes, of course. |
|
|
|
interesting part is that people who push now to sell bitcoins will want to buy back them later no matter what price will be because there is only so much of them in the world ... i'm not going to give mine any time soon.
No, the price is far too high for that  I sincerely believe that most holders of bitcoins have done exactly as I (among others) has advocated: only invest a modest sum, and fully prepared to ride it to the oblivion if need be. My own bitcoin holdings are already up more than 1000% and I am not selling until the proceeds will give a sizable boost to my economy. Most people are not inclined to sell at a loss, even to their own detriment. On the contrary, there is a weird willingness to wait for years until an investment breaks even in fiat terms and then sell, once it has finally started to perform. |
|
|
|
We have the standoff between a buying whale and sellers that are willing to dump at 96-97,
I believe mostly people who missed the train on the 19th July (I didn't, sold at 99 the day before).
If the buying whale makes another move today, up to 98 I believe, we'll find out if the sellers
get exhausted or not. If they do, the way to 100 and beyond is open IMO.
Don't be too preoccupied with the idea that only one entity in the world is accumulating bitcoins now, whereas the sellers are many. This is the age when the pros make their moves, and they don't necessarily use the exchanges at all, except for the purpose of price suppression. Bitcoin is quickly redeeming its place among gold and silver. But there's so much resistance.. What makes you so bullish? Are you thinking we going over 100? Volume is so small it does not matter much. The exchanges have their regulatory problems and worries, very few are willing to commit serious amounts of coin to Mt.Gox any more. This has changed over the last 3 months. I used to keep more than 2000 coins in Gox but do not do any more. My bullishness is based on fundamentals. Bitcoin will be either destroyed, or become a dud, flourish, or conquer the world. The latter 3 scenarios all mean that price will increase compared to now. I have parked my bitcoins in deep storage - to be activated when the price hits $1400. The risk is great but that can be mitigated by only investing what you can afford to lose. For many people that is quite much, actually  |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
