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6981  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 30, 2011, 05:50:12 AM
The Weierstass function (or its generalization) could be matched to the chart/trade data. And we would receive some sort of prediction what could happen next.

I don't know whenever it would be better than an Elliott wave but it would be than a simple linear trendline since it would match periodic fluctuations.

One thing however about all those predictive graphs: They cannot take into account the actions of the large players like the one who made the price drop from 3 in the first place and the individual placing the bidwalls at 2 and now 2.6. Also I don't think the extreme spikes necessarily invalidate a count if they are caused by bitcoinca forced liquidations. The rapid rise above 2.95 was the result of one (mine actually  Embarrassed, but I'm not complaining, gambling is what it is)
My point being: I wouldn't have bought at those levels nor anybody else. So there are alot of things happening not happening in a normal market.
6982  Economy / Speculation / Re: Manipulator is back on: November 30, 2011, 05:15:54 AM
The balance on mtgox is just numbers anyway.

As other possibilities besides that this screenshot is a fake is that mtgox is, and was compromised the whole time.
We really need a decentralized exchange.

Badly.
6983  Economy / Marketplace / Re: This is why Bitcoinica users must wait in line for withdrawals on: November 30, 2011, 05:08:13 AM
The whole withdraw limit thing is kinda bogus anyway. Independent of who it is.
6984  Economy / Speculation / Re: Diggin' the new Bitcoinica interface on: November 30, 2011, 04:20:00 AM
I don't really like it, it is more accessible but the quick buy function above 50 is just another bait to make a larger market order in which case you always loose.
6985  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 30, 2011, 04:04:35 AM
I have been thinking if it were possible to develop a program which parses the mtgox trade api data and enumerates the possible wave counts so that we see which possibilities are there. You mentioned that if taken that effort Elliot might not be the best choice, but there is something similar with sine functions which also forms a 1-dimensional fractal curve.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weierstrass_function

PS: Any thoughts on my suggestion on Fibonacci Retracements?
6986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Nagle's Favorite Chart on: November 29, 2011, 09:51:03 PM
Keep in mind there was a short squeeze, so take that with a grain of salt.
6987  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 04:23:16 AM
With that huge sell wall at 2.82 someone is either trying to push the price down or we might be at a new stability point. Its really tough to say but its too bad I can't stick around much longer to find out.
I think all the walls we see right now might even belong to the same person.
6988  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 03:35:37 AM
Forced liquidation @ 2.9528948006222637

 Embarrassed

Harshest of tokes, Dude Sad

I was sure I tried to warn somebody of such a thing a few days ago.  Oh, here it is:

"...but were I in your situation, I would be significantly concerned about someone with actual money playing around in the market for shits and giggles.  The entire Bitcoin economy is tiny.  Even if you were well protected with stop loss (vs. being crouched over your keyboard) you may still end up wiped out since orders do not get filled at predictable (or desirable) prices in a run."

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52926.msg631552#msg631552




I liquidated that particular position profitable during a dip, but I got the feeling that the steady rise would have a small correction coming and was planning to buy back @1% profit.
The problem was I procrastinated if I would have liquidated as I saw it I would have lost only 200. I just haven't considered such a thing in my trading strategy

But I learned alot, during the time I acquired my balance that it is painful to learn sometimes is just the way it is, I'm not complaining.
6989  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 03:03:07 AM
Well at least I've got 100 bucks left.

And I am confident that I'll reach my old balance in another 2 weeks, I know what I was getting into in the future I'll listen not as much to the bears Smiley
I'll wait till the dust settles then lets see if this turns out to be market reversal.
6990  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 02:57:06 AM
Forced liquidation @ 2.9528948006222637

 Embarrassed
6991  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 02:03:46 AM
The real question is show those of us who were trading on small margins and just got burned back buy in now before it goes even further?
Fuck it.

Either everything or nothing. This asshole can wipe me out if he wants to but he has to loose as well in order to do it. (Buy them back higher than he sold)

I agree with the sentiment, but am not concerned about the price of Bitcoin. It's cheap right now, so I'm buying what I can.
Gambling with Bitcoin > Gambling on Bitcoin

I might take losses but no way I am doing that now. If I'll decide to that then because I think that price is sustainable and I see the wall standing up to scrutiny against a near sell I might decide to take losses.

RSI would have to stay above 70 for the longest time ever in order for that to happen.
Everything else would be just a panic reaction.

If I could I would short now, and I would be almost certain I would take a profit from it.
6992  Economy / Speculation / Re: 70k bidwall at $2.65 on: November 29, 2011, 01:31:14 AM
The real question is show those of us who were trading on small margins and just got burned back buy in now before it goes even further?
Fuck it.

Either everything or nothing. This asshole can wipe me out if he wants to but he has to loose as well in order to do it. (Buy them back higher than he sold)
6993  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bears take on the current price? Input need from Bears only on: November 28, 2011, 11:37:28 PM
I am uncertain on that. I still consider it more likely that we will drop under the $2 mark but I don't rule out the possibility that we don't.

Buying now might also not get you the best deal regardless, since there will be a correction from this rally which I think will end with a little over 2.6.
I would consider the possibility of market reversal if we reach the higher 3s after that.

If that doesn't happen I estimate the ultimate bottom to be somewhere in the penny range. I say this because a full fledged bubble collapse is usally steeper than expected so that's the prices where I would consider buying in hard. If you look at the all time weekly RSI indicator it is currently at 40 it shot over 90 in the bubble so for me the buy area is around 20.

In the meantime there is bitcoinica Smiley
6994  Economy / Speculation / Re: FOX NEWS! VIDEO ! Buy Buy Buy on: November 28, 2011, 09:28:43 PM
Yeah bitcoin will rise because of this but I expect that because people already on board BUY, BUY, BUY not because bunch of newcomers decide to buy in.  Lips sealed

But I have to admit I am surprised that this report happened, it might help with the mid-term turn around if that keeps up. I no longer consider it certain that we plunge into the USD 1 levels anymore but it will certainly go back to the low 2s.
6995  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 28, 2011, 07:15:56 AM
Did you write this? It's an absolutely beautiful collection: http://www.vortexmath.com/a-fibonacci-phyllotaxis-prime-number-sieve

No that's not me Wink
But that's where I heard about that fact which inspired me to buy "the book of numbers" where this initially from. The guy behind this may bright but has wrong concepts about physics imo. He attributed particular importance to the number 10 and it in a circle-jerk about "quantum numerology". I view numerology as a misguided esoteric concept. (More on that later)

We experience the resonance as beautiful in a minimal resonant system? Some perfect harmony between absolute order and total entropy, maybe?

I haven't yet figured out if there is something as total entropy. It is said to be the golden ratio but according to Eulers theory this would hold true for any irrational number. There may be some merit to it since Phi is the most efficient way to arrange something like a sunflower daisy.


Do you have a reference to this specifically? What does this Gradus Function tell us? Are these correct?

6 --> (2+1) x (3+1) = 12
7 --> (7+1) = 8
8 --> (2+3) = 5

The other way around and the one is also included for some reason (In the past it was considered prime)

6 --> 1 + 2*1 + 3*1 = 6
7 --> 1 + 7*1 = 8
8 --> 1 + 2*3= 7

Is called the "Tentamen novae theoriae musicae" and is of the rare cases google finds viable information because of the weird latin name Smiley
The number used as the input is the least common denominator of all integers involved in a system. I think work very well to be used as a generalization of the so called Fibonacci Retracements.

So while it would include the commonly used ratios it would also introduce new ones and we would be able to weight them according to their gradus function value.

The only exception may be the ones including the prime factor of 5 because of the trend to have resistance levels around "whole" fractionals like 2, 2.5 2.25 and so on. In our culture we happen to use a basis of 10 number system which might suit us because we have 10 fingers but any other number system works the same and there is no particular unique property about it I know of.
The mayas used 20 maybe they were also counting their toes.  Cheesy

The whole concept of numerology is based upon the numbers 10 and 12 which have no unique property whatsoever form a purly mathematical standpoint if used as a number system. Btw the number system with the best entropy is trinary which is the best approximation of the idealistic (but unobtainable) value of e. It is for example most efficient to construct a multiple choice phone menu with a tree of 3 choices.
6996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin and Hype Cycle on: November 28, 2011, 04:22:58 AM
Well according to Gartner:

Quote
A hype cycle in Gartner's interpretation comprises five phases:

    "Technology Trigger" — The first phase of a hype cycle is the "technology trigger" or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.
    "Peak of Inflated Expectations" — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.
    "Trough of Disillusionment" — Technologies enter the "trough of disillusionment" because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.
    "Slope of Enlightenment" — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the "slope of enlightenment" and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.
    "Plateau of Productivity" — A technology reaches the "plateau of productivity" as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

I have to admit that according to gartner this is not always the case, I think it its likely the press will stop reporting on bitcoin once it is considered "dead".
Nevertheless the definition clearly states that if a subject is abandoned it before the recovery phase and it's mainstream adaptation.
6997  Economy / Economics / Re: Elliott Wave Educational Video Series on: November 28, 2011, 04:04:41 AM
Ok but where?

Alright I'll try...

Fibonacci Numbers and the golden Ratio occur in Nature although not as often as generally believed. The phyllotaxis is one of the few examples where the Sequence occurs in its actual form. The floret show arithmetic progressions with Fibonacci differences. They are also a particular efficient natural prime number sieve.

Prime numbers occur in Nature every time a periodic system must minimize resonance effects. We experience these resonance effects as aesthetic the arising complexity of combinations as beauty.

There is a way to calculate the aesthetics of a particular ratio, this was used by Euler to describe the aesthetics of musical intervals as a generalization. But it holds also true for other cases were ratios occur.
The formula used describes a "Gradus Function" which attributes a rating to any integer. This rating is calculated by summing the product of its prime factors and their exponent.

Implementing said function in a memory efficient way is related the PI function, the number of prime numbers below a certain limit. This function can only exactly formulated once there is an answer to the Riemann Hypothesis and only by using an assumption of truth and precomputed values can it be improved.

This is my 1234th post  Grin
6998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin and Hype Cycle on: November 28, 2011, 03:19:30 AM
Please don't compare me to that person, he is on my shitlist, thanks.



You are right this might not be the last press wave before the through of disillusionment. I think it is.
So are you saying that the press abandoning bitcoin will never happen? If not when would that be?
6999  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: MerkleWeb - statistical Godel-like secure-but-not-perfect global Turing Machine on: November 28, 2011, 02:23:16 AM
Oh wow  Shocked

That is like the most awesome bitcoin sidekick project I've seen. Except that it is proposed to be written in java (which I don't like  Embarrassed)
7000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin and Hype Cycle on: November 28, 2011, 02:07:58 AM
There will be no more press after this wave. At least for a few weeks to even months. That's the whole point of the Though of Disillusionment.
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