Wallet schliessen und dann hierhin gehen:

C:\Users\<user>\AppData\Roaming\Xaya\wallets\game.dat

(AppData ist ein versteckter Ordner, kannst auch einfach dies in die Adresszeile des Windows Explorers einfügen: %UserProfile%\AppData\Roaming\Xaya\wallets\game.dat)

Die vorhandene wallet.dat umbenennen, vielleicht in "leeregame.dat". Dann deine backup "game.dat" dort einfügen und "wallet.dat" nennen.

Danach gehts in den vault Ordner:

C:\Users\<user>\AppData\Roaming\Xaya\wallets\vault.dat (oder %UserProfile%\AppData\Roaming\Xaya\wallets\vault.dat)

Wieder bestehende wallet.dat umbenennen, backup vault.dat einfügen und in wallet.dat umbenennen.

Wallet wieder starten und bisschen warten, bis alle Header etc. geladen sind.

The big plus for Bayern regarding Lewandowski is that he is extremely durable on top of being such an excellent striker. He barely misses any games (31.66 appearances on average in Bundesliga in his six years with Bayern) and the bavarians played a risky game in the past, where they didn't have a proper replacement for him all the time. If he tore his ACL or whatever, Bayern would have been in huge trouble imo, but the gamble paid off. Nowadays it wouldn't be that much of a problem, since they have a lot of options offensively (but still no proper central forward besides Lewandowski).

Compare it to Reus from Dortmund, who is extremely important for them, though in a different position. He just played 20 games per season on average in the last 6 years, because dude just can't stay healthy. So being a good/gifted player isn't enough, your body must be ready for the challenge as well and Lewandowski is just amazing overall.

Beijing got a red card late in first half when the game was 1-1. Hard to get the 3 points then, 2-2FT, -6.00.

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For next round:

Shenzhen – Guangzhou R&F / Shenzhen +0.25 @1.86 5/10

R&F is struggling a lot this season, especially upfront, which is unusual for them. Now they will also miss their top striker Zahavi, because he travelled to Israel to play the UEFA Nations League. These odds are very wrong.

Shanghai Shenhua – Guangzhou / Guangzhou ML @1.81 5/10

Guangzhou is still the best team for me in CSL and Shanghai will miss their top player El Shaarawy in this game, because he also left China for UNL.

Hebei – Shijazhuang / Hebei +0.25 @1.87 4/10

This one is wrongly priced, Shijazhuang can’t be favourite here. I am expecting Shijazhuang to fade a bit the longer the season goes, since their Chinese players are weak. Hebei is a solid side and should get a draw here minimum.

Me neither and it's quite difficult, so I guess even the teams will not know what to do

It's basically, if you didn't win your UEFA World cup qualifying group and also didn't finish as a runner-up in your group there, BUT you won your UNL group, then you will be put into the playoff-path, if you have a good enough UNL ranking. Two teams from UNL will get added to the playoffs that way (to make it 12 playoff teams in total).

Lets say France wins their UNL group and maybe the whole competition. In UEFA WC qualifying, they only finish 3rd in their group. They will then be eligible for the playoffs (with the 10 runner-ups and one additional team from UNL). At least thats how I understood it....

The last game was in June 2019, when Portugal beat the Netherlands in the 2018/2019 edition. I used the search to see, if there is already an existing thread (UNL in general or 2020/2021 one), but to no success, so I opened a new one for this edition, which can be turned into general UNL thread at a later point as well.

But can also lock/delete, if there is an existing thread, that I missed.

Üble Geschichte, tut mir leid

Wann wurde dir das bewusst, dass du noch BTC auf dem PC hattest ? Hattest/hast du noch alte Adresse(n) oder versucht, sie mal rauszufinden, um zu überprüfen, was mit den BTC geschehen ist ? Nochmal versucht den Käufer zu kontaktieren ?

Vielleicht doofe Frage, aber bist du immer noch verbittert darüber oder hast du gelernt damit zu leben und kannst ggf. auch bisschen schmunzeln über diese Dummheit ? Du hättest sicherlich nicht bis heute alle BTC behalten, aber vielleicht einen Teil. Und zwischendurch schon schöne Gewinne gemacht.

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Ohne Kooperationsbereitschaft des Käufers hat man mMn keinerlei Chance die BTC wiederzukriegen, nicht mal per Gericht. Denn der Käufer kann immer sagen, dass dort keine BTC waren und wie soll bewiesen werden, dass sie dort mal waren (wenn der Käufer den PC anschliessend neu aufgesetzt hat, wovon man ausgehen kann, sofern er die BTC gefunden/geklaut hat) ?

Ich würde fast denken, dass die BTC jetzt auch auf einer Müllhalde liegen Wer kauft einen gebrauchten Rechner und guckt dann (~2012) dort nach BTC wallet.dat's ? Oder wie groß muss der Zufall sein, dass ein Käufer sich dann auch irgendwann mal ein Bitcoin-Wallet installiert ?

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There will be tons of matches next weekend already and among them some interesting ones (well that depends very much on your personal taste in the end), like Germany vs Spain, Portugal vs Croatia, Denmark vs Belgium, Sweden vs France etc. Most of these matches will be played behind closed doors for the time being afaik, so this will be a bit more difficult to predict like could be seen in the various european leagues and competitions already. The motivation of the teams is a big question mark, although this league has some implications for the 2022 World Cup qualification. I guess we will see some surprise results already in first round, you just have to spot them, which is not easy

Happy discussing and predicting

It could be anyone then:

Source: https://people.howstuffworks.com/what-happens-presidential-candidate-dies.htm

Some days ago people were asking to bet on Cuomo again at Betfair, which was a bit Now he is at 1000 again (the max), but there is still some action on Harris, Hillary, M. Obama, Pence and Mark Cuban

Der Start des Taurion Treasure Hunt #3 wurde um drei Tage auf Freitag verschoben und das hat auch einen Grund, denn es wurde noch ein Sale implementiert - ein Burnsale.

Die in-game Währung von Taurion wird Cubits heissen und diese kann bereits während des TTH für das full game erworben werden. Insgesamt wird es 100,000,000,000 Cubits geben, von denen 50,000,000,000 (50%) innerhalb des Spiels über Dekaden durch Skill gewonnen werden können. Die anderen 50,000,000,000 werden käuflich erwerblich sein in einem zeitlich unbegrenzten Sale. Die CHI, die man gegen Cubits eintauscht werden geburned, d.h. im Laufe der Zeit könnten bis zu 28Mio CHI geburned werden - also ca. 36% aller CHI, die es jemals geben wird, denn max supply ist ~77Mio wie oben erwähnt. Das Xaya-Team oder irgendwelche anderen Leute werden keine dieser vernichteten CHI bekommen, sie sind für immer verschwunden in den Weiten des Internets.

Preisstruktur:


Quelle: https://medium.com/@XAYA/taurion-burn-sale-a7c74bc7bbba

Das Xaya-Team selber wird Teile seiner CHI benutzen, um Cubits zu erwerben.

Alles Weitere kann man hier lesen (auf englisch): Taurion Burn Sale

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Typisch Xaya mal wieder. Die allermeisten Projekte würden einfach die CHI nehmen und dumpen. Was macht das Xaya-Team ? Burned einfach die CHI und muss zudem auch selber welche kaufen, um überhaupt welche zu haben. Sicherlich profitiert das Team auch von vernichteten CHI, aber ich finde das trotzdem eine sehr faire Sache.

Dann schaust lieber das hier bei YouTube bzgl. Silk Road, ist besser produziert imo und die Inhalte sind ja eh immer irgendwo ähnlich: Deep Web - der Untergang der Silk Road [Doku Deutsch]

I get your frustration, but you have sucked out people as well over the course of all the tournaments and probably today as well. And you made good profits in this series, winning 3 tournaments, finishing 2nd once and also cashing in the Grand Final (41k+ chips profit in total). Now all you do here and did in the chat is complaining and showing no sportsmanship towards Betwrong. You could at least congratulate him and maybe send some nice words to @efialtis too, since without him organizing all this, you wouldn't have made all those profits.

Gratz @Betwrong and gratz @Iv4n

Also gratz to @jayce, @Betwrong, @bitmutiny and @tyKiwanuka for being inducted into the Bitcointalk Poker Hall of Fame today; next stop Canton

Big thanks to @efialtis for organizing this event and all the prizes. And thanks to SwC for sponsoring our event for three seasons already.

Lets see when and if there will be a fourth season.

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You were on holiday for four weeks, nice

For sure I did. Every professional gambler will have had losing months; the exception are maybe arbers, when it comes to betting. One month is a too short period to get rid of variance all the time, thats why you should think more longterm than a month.


The first post in this thread has some table of contents, where you can find posts about my journey.

Well, Trumps odds have gone down further (2.34 currently at Betfair) and this of course due to those polls as well, which then reflects in the state betting odds. Long way to go in Minnesota (4.75 -> 3.75), Pennsylvania looks a bit more realistic (3.00 -> 2.60). Other bigger drops pro Republicans happened in Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Michigan and Arizona.


Odds taken from: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

If I consider everything 1.50 and lower a safe bet, it's 266 - 186 pro Biden, with 83 votes tbd. Some weeks ago it was 276 - 164 (95) as can be seen here, so Trump definitely has some momentum.

Eine ähnliche Doku läuft ja schon in Dauerschleife auf ZDF.info, ist aber ganz interessant. Noch interessanter ist allerdings die Doku über Ross Ulbricht / Silk Road imo, der letztendlich nur durch diesen Post hier im Forum vom FBI geschnappt wurde: IT pro needed for venture backed bitcoin startup

Auch verfügbar in der Mediathek: https://www.zdf.de/dokumentation/zdfinfo-doku/kriminelle-karrieren-ross-ulbricht-der-darknet-dealer-102.html

I am still interested as well, but I think we have too few participants (?). And we need someone to take the initiative and set things up, so we can advertise a bit more with clear rules, buy-in, link to join etc. Any volunteers ?

I am fine with any reasonable buy-in and have no preferences for the rules, since I don't know the differences between them, lol. Any draft time fine with me as well.

Yes, but it's not that much easier I think. If we look at the Bordeaux - Nantes match, Zerkane got red card and Bordeaux didn't make any substitution right away. They re-organized themselves like this:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/x42Vi5GG/#lineups;1

So not a lot of changes, if a) Bordeaux takes more defensive approach and b) Hwang/Maja run a bit more. For sure Nantes will have more posession and can get more easily in Bordeaux's half, but once arrived there, it's basically the same as with 11 vs 11 (also considering Bordeaux being kind of extra-motivated, team spirit increased etc.). Now these two teams are evenly matched and it's a way different ball game, if a bad team receives a red card against a superior team.

So when there is a general stat that the scoring intensity increases by 5/4, this is/was not the case for Nantes, it was way less imo, if at all. But this has to be judged on an individual basis and by following the game.


This is very simplified then again, because it doesn't take into account the circumstances when the red card happened, team strenghts etc. Maybe in those 59% lost games, in 60% of the cases this team was already pre-match underdog and down 0-1 when the red card happened

Hmm, this is an interesting opinion I agree that this team will get a lot of physical pressure on the pitch, because the other team will attack relentlessly, but on a mental level I don't see the pressure increasing as I said (it's going down imo). No one expects anything no more from this team, there is nothing to lose no more. Imagine you get a draw with one man down - great result. Imagine you get a draw being one man up - not so great.

It's basically the same when a top team plays a way inferior team in lets say a cup game. Bayern Munich playing a third division team, all the pressure is on Bayern imo. Everything but a win is super embarassing and this is huge pressure (with which the pros learnt to deal with to some extent). For the Div3 team there is no pressure at all, everyone expects them to lose; even they themselves.

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We as punters can maybe experience the same a bit too or at least I do. Lets say I place a bet on home win in a football match. As long as it is 0-0, I am rather calm, I live by the hope. The moment my team scores the 1-0 I feel some relieve, but also suddenly get more nervous - why ? Because it feels like I have this money already in my pocket, so now there is something to lose for me. This is pretty weird, but psychology. I talked to other people about this and they feel the same.

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Thanks for posting this, quite interesting. As someone who always struggled with math a bit, I find these formulas very nice


Source: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

This was my gut feeling as well; goals are less likely most of the times after a red card was shown:

Red cards in football have a pretty big impact on football matches - there are only two incidents, when betting markets get suspended: goals and red cards. But how big is the impact of a red card in the end ?

This was always a factor of the game, where I wanted to do some research. There are some studies available in the internet, but they are way too simplified/general in the end for my liking. They don't take into account all the different circumstances which are important to do some analysis what a red card does to the game and how it potentially changed the outcome. These circumstances are:

• What were the pre-match odds ?
• When was the red card given ?
• To which player was the red card given
• What was the score at that time ?
• Was it given to home or away side?
• How did it affect the odds ?

Now these are probably too many factors to include in an anylysis in an online forum and it would take very long to have a big enough sample size to make a general assumption. But I want to use this thread to monitor games with red cards, to get a better feel for it, where some value could be found.

I will concentrate on ENG1, ESP1, ITA1 and GER1 for a start and see if there is any pattern. This will not be retrospective, but for the upcoming season in these leagues.

An example from FRA1 yesterday:

Bordeaux - Nantes
Pre-match odds: 2.64 - 2.94 - 3.02 (avg. from oddsportal)
Red card: Bordeaux in 20th minute, score 0-0
Final result: 0-0

After the red card for Bordeaux, the ML odds for Nantes went down to around 2.0-ish I think (didn't follow closely) and having watched the game in HT2, it would have been super value to place a bet on Bordeaux 1X, since Nantes was super poor. Bordeaux was happy defending the 0-0 and did so very well, can't remember a big goal scoring opportunity for Nantes. But it's not easy on a mental level to place a bet on a team that is one man down early in the game

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We can use this thread also for some discussion about it.

In general I don't like red cards in terms of betting, not even for the team I bet against pre-match. It gives the game a completely new dynamic, which is not something I like and where I struggle a lot. Most of the times a red card is shown, I just stop following the game, if I wanted to do some live bets - just too hard for me to judge.

So what does a red card do ? It depends very much on all these circumstances above. For example, if you lead 3-0 and get a red card in 89th minute, it doesn't matter. If you are 1.2 favourite at home and get a red card in 15th minute, you still have very good chances to take the 3 points.

A lot of what happens after a red card is shown, is psychological imo. The team that is down by one man "just" needs 10% more from the remaining 10 players to compensate, but in their mind they think "uh, we are down one man, we have no chance anymore". They will choose a more defensive approach and by subbing a striker out, they can just park the bus, don't attack the opponents defenders that hard and it will be very hard for their opponent to score. There isn't more space then and you don't even need to run that much more, if you are well organized.

A red card will always kind of motivate the team that got it. It ups the team spirit imo and they are willing to go the extra mile to defend the result; it can be a good boost in team morale, if they get the job done. The team that has the strength in numbers will feel some additional pressure otoh. They are somehow expected to get the 3 points no matter what then or everyone will laugh at them.

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

What is your opinion or experience regarding red cards and the impact they have on the outcome of a football match ? Did you play football on some (semi-)professional level and one of your teammates got a red card ? What did this do to you, your team and your mental approach ?

Well, Hhampuz says only Top10+ should play small final, while you suggested to let everyone play, if I understood correctly:


But anyway, I think it's not worth making a big drama out of it in the end. Send the password to all 23 warriors and each player can decide for himself whether to join or not.