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701  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its called a correction on: February 22, 2012, 02:04:37 AM
Massive askwall just popped up and stopped a starting rally in its tracks. Interesting...
702  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Most Bitcoins Mined Without Solving a Block? on: February 22, 2012, 12:21:43 AM
Mined ~130 with no blocks found ever Sad Mix of Deepbit and BTCguild. It's a long time ago I last mined though. 22 eurocents a kilowatt kills any profit Sad
703  Economy / Speculation / Re: -40% Trial Offer until Feb 22 * Bitcoin Technical Analysis (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: February 21, 2012, 11:43:59 PM
Which is a continuation pattern, correct? Which means down, down, down? Weird that I missed it in the update though. Thanks for posting!
704  Economy / Speculation / Re: -40% Trial Offer until Feb 22 * Bitcoin Technical Analysis (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: February 21, 2012, 11:26:45 PM
There are some bots on mtgox continously executing microtrades (often less than 0.01 BTC).  Either buying or selling to make sure last price is either to the upside or to the downside of spread.  Those may manipulate the charts, depending on how you make them.  Will your charts be influenced by such bots, or do you take care to remove those microtrades before generating the charts?

Using a bot to manipulate technical analysis, and play mind games on people making trading decisions just from watching the charts, is a neat trick if it works. :-)

They don't manipulate technical analysis. The spreads are often very tiny, so the price won't change more than a few pips by this strategy. They also don't generate any meaningful volume to influence certain indicators. So they aren't a problem at all. Besides, using technical analysis, bars represent a lot longer time frame than a few seconds, so you won't see the movements caused by those micro trades either.

Thanks Mushoz, you are right, this does not influence at all the technical analysis.

In fact, the bitcoin market has been quite straightforward to predict over the past 1.5 years - as it displays great "textbook-like" patterns.


Do you think Economics professors might use examples from the Bitcoin network in their teachings?   Grin  Might be a win-win, since these are such "textbook" patterns.  I wonder, what other commodities / markets have shown such textbook-like patterns in the past?

not  a bad idea.

In fact, the triangle I was predicting is currently almost perfectly forming. even though I was predicting it, I could not believe my eyes how mass bitcoin psychology really works so perfectly

Which update contains the triangle you're talking about? I can't seem to be able to find it. Or are you talking about the triangle in the attachment, which was send in a separate email on February the 18th? To checking if I'm looking at the correct one Smiley Thanks!

Edit: Hmm, wait. That triangle isn't valid anymore. Which triangle are you talking about? Could you help me out please? Thanks! Smiley
705  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: btccharts.com on: February 21, 2012, 11:17:57 PM
Is there a "reset to defaults" button somewhere? I tried refreshing, but that's not working Sad Would be a welcome addition for me, and of course the live ticker Wink Great job so far, this might completely replace Mtgoxlive soon for me!
706  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its called a correction on: February 21, 2012, 10:04:28 PM
I agree with both of you, wonderful update! Looking forward to the outcome Wink
707  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its called a correction on: February 21, 2012, 05:14:48 PM
I am also very happy with the frequent updates.  I am having a bit of trouble weighing the different possible scenarios against each other.  I wish the timescale and his expected probability of the scenario playing out was a little more plainly labeled

Yes, agreed. This could be improved on Smiley But still, very satisfied so far!
708  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its called a correction on: February 21, 2012, 04:40:32 PM
what do all of you think of the subscription?

Very good so far! He has a very extensive wave analysis, but that's more for long term, so not sure how accurate it's going to be. He also updates _really_ frequently, with multiple possible scenario's based on chart analysis and indicator analysis and what to look out for to confirm which scenario starts playing out. He very accurately predicted the micro rally from ~4,20 to 4,50. So far, very happy for those 2,5 BTC!
709  Other / Meta / Re: [ANN] Mt.Gox’s February 21st, Downtime Explanation on: February 21, 2012, 03:43:10 PM
90-95% if not more of their funds is in cold storage, meaning a hack won't be able to access those coins. The "hacker" would need psychical access, ie robbing one of the banks where the private key to their wallet is stored. Good luck with that  Grin

I bet 5-10% of mtGox funds is still a LOT of money.

Sure, but then again, I doubt there are that stupid that gaining root access to the forums would compromise their Mtgox site as well. Just saying Wink
And I just checked the numbers again, it's 90-98% in cold storage, so that's great =]
710  Other / Meta / Re: [ANN] Mt.Gox’s February 21st, Downtime Explanation on: February 21, 2012, 02:04:24 PM
why are bitcointalk and mtgox hosted on the same server anyway?

..which suggests even more trouble:
Gain root on "bitcointalk" = gain root on "MtGox" too. megawallet.dat, achievement unlocked!

All this doesnt sound too professionally thought out.

Ente

90-95% if not more of their funds is in cold storage, meaning a hack won't be able to access those coins. The "hacker" would need psychical access, ie robbing one of the banks where the private key to their wallet is stored. Good luck with that  Grin
711  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Advertise Bitcoin on every single banknote ( and make a new game ? ) on: February 21, 2012, 02:03:01 PM
Pretty cool Smiley

If a game is not made, someone could simply make a quick website that sells stamps (like for ink pads). The stamp will say something like "Bitcoin is Happening" and it'd be small so it'd fit in the margin border of the bill. Anyone interested in promoting this viral phenomenon can order a stamp and join the legion.

BitcoinIsHappening.com is available...

QR Code would be awesome!  This is like an IRL bitcoin faucet.  All one would have to do is be directed to go to a special site (i like wheres satoshi!) and be presented with simple instructions on downloading a light client or mobile app like bitspinner. 

How about..
-Make a stamp to stamp QR codes and/or urls on bills.
-Create priv keys from the bill's serial number (by sha256 etc)
-Transfer smallish amounts do dozens, hundreds of such stamped bills
-Website where the QR/url points to lets you directly enter the bill's serial number and the state you live in, lets you redeem the bitcoins and explains what this is all about

-Extra points for making this big and viral!

Ente


Using the bills serial number is a _really_ good idea since it's unique. We'll need to make a simple website that hashes the serial number to a private key, and then spends the Bitcoins on the bill to a public address of choice.
712  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Who in the world is 95.120.241.167? on: February 21, 2012, 12:36:40 PM
Looks like it's from spain. Interesting. What are the electric rates in Spain?
713  Economy / Speculation / Re: -40% Trial Offer until Feb 22 * Bitcoin Technical Analysis (bitcoinbullbear.com) on: February 21, 2012, 12:00:43 PM
There are some bots on mtgox continously executing microtrades (often less than 0.01 BTC).  Either buying or selling to make sure last price is either to the upside or to the downside of spread.  Those may manipulate the charts, depending on how you make them.  Will your charts be influenced by such bots, or do you take care to remove those microtrades before generating the charts?

Using a bot to manipulate technical analysis, and play mind games on people making trading decisions just from watching the charts, is a neat trick if it works. :-)

They don't manipulate technical analysis. The spreads are often very tiny, so the price won't change more than a few pips by this strategy. They also don't generate any meaningful volume to influence certain indicators. So they aren't a problem at all. Besides, using technical analysis, bars represent a lot longer time frame than a few seconds, so you won't see the movements caused by those micro trades either.
714  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: PayPal for BTC Exchanger on: February 21, 2012, 10:59:30 AM
Guys, isn't it obvious after he stated he will wait 1 day after receiving funds? He's using a stolen Paypal account. As soon as you pay him, he withdraws the money (and for this he needs some time, hence the day wait) and never sends you any bitcoins. The customer reverses the paypal payment, leaving the stolen paypal account with a negative balance. Now the real owner of the account is screwed.

Bottomline, stay away. He's losing _at least_ 10% on every trade due to fraud, and there's no reason he wouldn't be using a convenient exchange which already have plenty of withdraw options if he wants dollars for his BTC. If he can sell 1 BTC at an exchange for 4,30$ each, there's no way in hell he can agree to 4,30 each through paypal, because of fraud and fees alone. Even without those 2 points it makes no sense not to use an exchange.

Just let this thread die!
715  Economy / Speculation / Re: GOX and Bitcointalk was down - official FUD topic on: February 21, 2012, 10:22:14 AM
Mtgox was back up before the dump, I could already log in. After the dump, the site indeed went down again. Probably someone lucky and early like me who managed to log in the first time the site was back up.
716  Other / Off-topic / Re: Valid Arguments on Whether Drugs Should Be Legalized for Personal Consumption on: February 19, 2012, 11:12:37 PM
The laws about drugs are one of the worst possible laws. They drive the business to criminals, which causes death, requires enormous amounts of money to fight and the laws are simply ineffective! THC is legal here in The Netherlands, yet less people smoke THC here than they do in say UK, where it is illegal to do so. And not do these wars on drugs cost tons of money, they are also missing truckloads of money. By legalizing certain drugs, not only would they make tons of money on producing those drugs and taxes paid over those products, they would save tons of money, since the illegal sector will have a hard time competing with the legal one, so it would require less money to fight the illegal sector.

And that's just talking about the criminal things related to drugs. By providing good education about drugs, people would most likely use them instead of abuse them. And they would get quality goods instead of tainted products, which are usually far more dangerous to one's health than the substance the user intended to take. This would save tons of money yet again, because we would save money on health care on drugs related incidents.

And frankly, people don't take their governments serious anymore. People got told for example that 1 XTC pill can kill them. And this is just ridiculous. This would only be possible by mixing it with other substances, or by behavior that could have been prevented by providing proper and honest education. And even then the chances of dieing by taking 1 pill of XTC are far less than dieing by binge drinking alcohol, which plenty of teenagers do these days.

The reason why drugs beyond THC won't be legalized here in The Netherlands in the foreseeable future is politics. Even if experts provide numbers that legalizing will have more benefits than downsides, they won't do it. A politician who would want to do such a thing would simply get a lot less votes. Politicians don't have to do what's best for the country, politicians sadly have to do what the people think it's best for the country, just to get people to vote for them. This is also the biggest flaw with current politics in my opinion. Experts who know far more about certain things, like in this case drugs, can't improve the current conditions simply because ignorant people won't vote for a politician who would want to do such a thing, simply because they are ignorant and think it's bad.

Too bad, sadly Sad

/endrant
717  Other / Off-topic / Re: Average age of bitcoin user. on: February 19, 2012, 10:54:47 PM
wow i dint expect so many woman on this forum

Where are you getting that data from? :p
718  Economy / Speculation / Re: bitscalper anyone use this ? [PASSWORDS LEAKED] on: February 19, 2012, 10:53:55 PM
Correct me, but aren´t the makers of bitscalper from Germany?

Wasn't the site ran from Italy?
719  Economy / Speculation / Re: Precarious on: February 19, 2012, 10:39:57 PM

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.

We are 5 weeks into the last bar.

Nice, looking good! We'll probably overtake the 2nd last bar by a little bit if we maintain current volume figures. Bitcoin growth is looking healthy! Thanks for these graphs, really interesting.
720  Economy / Speculation / Re: Precarious on: February 19, 2012, 10:34:13 PM


Mt.Gox bitcoin volume averaged over 16-week increments.

How many weeks are there already in that last bar? It will most likely rise significantly before it closes.
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