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701  Other / Politics & Society / Program for enforcing the law ala BTC but with actual politics on: May 31, 2012, 06:29:40 PM
Sorry for the long title.

I am currently quite far with a project like this. I am developing it for my bachelors project and I have 1 month more to go - though much of that will be report writing.

Some basic version of the project will likely be made open source in the future.


The program controls resources instead of humans - much like with Bitcoin, and with much the same rationale.

Only except of being a monetary system it controls power:
For instance you could define that a "president" in your "neighborhood community group" is chosen by 50% majority vote and that the president has full power over your joint budget.

Using the normal way of doing things such a president could easily swindle you even if you had already impeached him as he would have account access.

With MY program the second his support drops below 50% he would loose account access as the program would simply block him.


The program is a framework which you can load your own C# plugins into by pasting the text-code into a window. Plugins here are basically "rules" in an organization.
This could be rules such as "hire by IQ > 100", "president if votes > 50%" or "judge if appointed by president".

Basically ANY type of organization can be expressed - this doesn't guarantee its success, but it does guarantee that its rules WILL be followed.
Opposite to various, say American, constitutions *ahem*.

The idea is incentive based so if the program doesn't have controlling access to anything of value its rules of cause loose all meaning.


One flaw in the system is that you have to trust the server - but even then the program and the theory behind it is a massive step forwards for lawmaking - I think - as you can now use software syntax to express something as diffuse as an "organization" with mathematical precision.

This flaw could theoretically be corrected if an decentralized programming language was invented (hence my thread about it earlier somewhere on this forum).


One of the reasons I re-discovered BTC after having first heard a little about it in 2010-2011 was my research for this program: BTC lets the program control money completely without having to trust humans.


Much in the same way many don't get BTC or its value most have no idea wtf I am doing or why, including my teacher - so I guess I am just posting to get SOME sort of effing feedback

Any questions?
702  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Appropriate fee for future pure BTC smart cards used for payments? on: May 24, 2012, 06:17:26 PM
Quote
1/1.000.000*0,18$.

Only programmers would write a price like that lol
I started out in another currency then realized you guys know dollars better... but yeah I am.
703  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Appropriate fee for future pure BTC smart cards used for payments? on: May 24, 2012, 06:09:20 PM
The question is pretty much in the title.

My country has a nationalized version of VISA which makes the fees pretty damn low; about 0,4% I think - there might be hidden costs I am not aware of.

Of course on top of this the shops have additional costs per year for their terminals.


The data price for internet traffic is quite low so for a TX at 500 byte it would be around 1/1.000.000*0,18$.

Of course there are other costs, but all in all the BTC network should not cost much to operate technically.


In light of these numbers and to stay competitive even in efficient markets I would program an automatic (1/10.000*transfer amount) for fee into the card chip.


Considering that most transactions today are without a fee, I am thinking that the cards should keep working for quite some time without being ignored.

Your thoughts?
704  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A day in the life of a pirate. on: May 23, 2012, 03:47:47 PM
Okay, not defending pirates business here, as I think its a ponzi, but:

1. Everyone withdrawing shows nothing. If I was running a legitimate business investing peoples money in wind turbines (serious pooling benefits) then I would not be able to pay out a dime or much anyway (edit: During a bank run).

... then again if I was doing that I would just show documents for turbine ownership.

2. The reason you invest other peoples money and not just your own is so you can scale up. I may only have a small amount, say 5K$, and even if I get the full return for that, taking 1-10% of other peoples return while investing 50-500K$ more still nets me extra income.

As others said it is also safer for me to "gamble" with other peoples money.

The benefit for my clients is that I would have the contacts, pooling benefits and save them time investing themselves.

So yeah pirate is likely running a ponzi, but the above are not suspicious signs.
705  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A day in the life of a pirate. on: May 22, 2012, 05:19:05 PM
How in the world did you get ~44% annually out of 7% a week? 7% a week is 364% annually if it is not compounded or reinvested.

>>> 1.07**52
33.725347994710454

or 3300% if it is compounded
Yes, you're right, I was sloppy.

My point remains that it is crazy.

It would be compounded if someone where to reinvest their returns.
706  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A day in the life of a pirate. on: May 22, 2012, 05:07:03 PM
Bitcoin is completely revolutionary and super needed yet its value is only climbing with some 30% a YEAR, that should give you a hint.

What on earth are you talking about? It's been way more than 30% in my world. it's even more than 1000%
As I said that is possible for a short time, but even BTC has slowed its growth now. Its been 30% a few months now.

If pirate is paying 7% a week, saw some article, that's ~44.000%/year.

In short it would have to be way bigger than bitcoin itself, yet no one knows what it even is and its all managed by one dude. Suure totally not a ponzi.
707  Economy / Speculation / Predict the next 2 years, no take-backsies on: May 22, 2012, 04:53:03 PM
BTC:
BTC increase in value for 2012 will average out at 25-32% - until December when the block reward drops.

With some portion of 3600 BTC fewer hitting the markets each day the rate will rapidly change.

This will create a short-term bubble in early 2013 which will later crash. Overall 2013 will have BTC grow in value by around 50% or double 2012.

Before the bubble crashes it will spawn another media blitz and attention will be brought to all the VCs looking to get into BTC - it is among other things the entrance of these big boys that drive 2013 growth.

By early 2014 bitcoin will be used regularly in some real world business.

However the fact that BTC is still for relatively rich and geeky people with smart phones and or computers will limit growth.

Less certain real world predictions:
Greece will likely default before 2013 is out or even in the coming months. Obama looses to Romney since Romney is prettier, but "good-guy movements" grow in power and record numbers will register with independent parties or not vote.

This could start huge banking failures around the world once more in 2012 with untold consequences. If this does NOT happen oil price will climb higher than 130$/barrel and as time goes on the likelihood of another financial crisis increases.

With Romney in power the US becomes as fascist as ever and cold war style incursions over oil fields even with another 2nd world country such as China are likely - for instance with drones against drones or hackers.
Sometime before July/2014.

After a 10 year lull global warming picks up speed a bit between 2010 and 2014, methane plumes, dirty coal, fracking and tar sands play part in this.
Nothing too drastic though, just more crazy weather.

China/India growth slows. China growth in 2014 will be around 5%.
708  Economy / Economics / Re: Price stickiness at $5 USD/BTC? on: May 22, 2012, 04:06:38 PM
First of all being around 5$ +/- 10 cents for what? 2-4 weeks? is not THAT stable.

Secondly the BTC economy is growing as others said it keeps things more stable.

Thirdly someone was manipulating the market up and down with fake walls a month or two ago and I bet a lot got burned on that, well we all learned our lesson and don't panic so easily anymore - markets are alive.
709  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A day in the life of a pirate. on: May 21, 2012, 08:08:40 PM
Earning 30% a week or what ever?

Yeah its possible in some instances for a short time, but HIGHLY unlikely to be rooted in the real world.

Investing in something not transparent is just stupid; its worse than gambling as you don't even know what game you are playing or the odds.

Even if pirate is not doing a ponzi scheme the kind of people he attracts are quite likely to fall for other ponzi schemes.


Bitcoin is completely revolutionary and super needed yet its value is only climbing with some 30% a YEAR, that should give you a hint.

To do even that on a regular basis you usually have to be facebook or asset strip companies.


Not revealing his secret formula? There's people on the internet earning money on fruit porn, unless he discovered alchemy I don't buy it.
Sounds SOO much like lehman brothers and the lot "we are so brilliant - two days later - your money is gone, bye!".
710  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Island on: May 21, 2012, 07:53:35 AM
$20 / m^2 is equivalent to $400,000 for 5 acres or approximately 80,000 BTC.
Seasteads have to be rebuilt periodically as well.  Islands don't.

Very true, even in my expensive expensive country you can get large areas of farm land for maybe 4$/m^2, deserted islands and deserts come at nickles.

However floating islands lets you get cheap real estate quite near huge cities, while too expensive for farming, housing and some industries are a definite possibility.

You can't really earn money or anything on a remote island - hence why its cheap!

If people are interested in this subject seasteading.org is all about it - sites pretty dead, little technological development hence my floathaven site.

Quote
just buy an old ship.
The world's largest ship has a footprint of 5.8 acres and cost $1.2 billion to build, the equivalent of 25 times the entire Bitcoin economy.

Notice how much I shaved off the price there? Wink

A lot of our materials are actually cheaper than the 20$/m^2 we have to pay so if you scale up and have your own factory you could probably dump the price to near 4$ OR increase quality.

Of course you have to build stuff on top too - but for the right industry/place it can make sense.
711  Economy / Economics / Re: Greece mulls Euro exit on: May 20, 2012, 08:00:43 AM
Guys! We've derailed the thread. We are supposed to be discussing how we can get the Greeks to buy into Bitcoin.

Go to Greece and spent a week on the streets yelling about bitcoin/hand out some flyers.

Its how most grassroots and political parties do it - get the attention of a few hundred, then hope they tell 2 others each.
712  Economy / Economics / Re: Greece mulls Euro exit on: May 19, 2012, 10:41:04 AM
Greece should:
1. Default on the loans they can't pay. Its just the ECB paying them right now anyway.
2. Now, they would no longer be able to loan a dime.

I'm not even sure about that. Free of debt economy being built with motivated population? Might be a good investment... get in early Wink

They should do 1. and then make their own currency. I read they have some gold, just use that to back it and jump in the boat with russia, china,... (who will do the same at some point) and be the first of european nations to have sound money.
Yeah probably, I'm guessing a smaller amount though and not the first months/year.

Would be better for them if they didn't loan and fixed things instead.
713  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: An exercise in security: Best practices for the naïve end user? on: May 18, 2012, 03:56:33 PM
I have a "safe password" (two actually) and one I use for everything.

safe one(s) used for email, paypal and bitcoin.

BTC wallet in the cloud has been secured with two passwords (safe/unsafe both), on disk is always encrypted with one (the safe one).
714  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Island on: May 18, 2012, 01:59:24 PM
Very cool.

I have actually experimented with a floating island design (floathaven .com).

Its still in the prototype phase so I wont accept money from anyone, but once ready I think we can churn out land for about 20$/m^2.

You guys should look into the seasteading movement, very BTC like.
715  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is bitcoin democratic? on: May 17, 2012, 08:38:41 PM
It's not democratic:

1. It was created by ONE guy/group and imposed on the entire world.
2. You can't vote, only use or not use.

I believe it is technocratic:
1. It is a technology.
2. It was created by true experts.
3. It solves socio-eco-political issues - with no regard to left vs. right.

You could tax BTC income at 99% in a communist society (using force/tracing programs) or a 0% in a libertarian one.

It is simply a solution to a problem with corruption, of a human nature, of central banks/politicians, otherwise handling money.


Technocracy coincidentally will be the next great ideology - by the process of elimination; others will simply fail as they are now.


Mainstream propaganda has left people believing democracy = good/all else = evil. Where have we heard that before.
716  Economy / Economics / Re: Greece mulls Euro exit on: May 17, 2012, 08:18:13 PM
(PS: Realpra is wise.)

Can't take all the credit, much in my post was from around the internet - just got sick of hearing about how we are all doomed if some idiot bankers go bankrupt.

Quote
LOL. I love it how the press can control general sentiment about countries so much.

Me too, notice how its always centered on Europe even if the US is quite messed up too?

Drives money away from the euro and into the dollar - keeping it from devaluing from all the FED printing.


I think a large amount of investors actually have very little idea what they are doing.


Meanwhile China is getting stuff DONE, with all the infrastructure and renewable energy they can't come out too bad.
717  Economy / Economics / Re: Speculate about the year 2020 on: May 17, 2012, 08:32:51 AM
Any other ideas, please feel free to post or send me a PM, no matter how weird.
Mainstream society has become ultra radical and dummed down.

Communes of intellectuals remain and survive by acting "normal" outwardly, even faking ritual sacrifice.

If you are found to be asking too many questions or to be too intelligent in school you will disappear.

The military leads extensive wars over seas with zero support from the population via the drone program. A secret cold war over oil fields is constant between US and Chinese drones.

The elite is working on better industrial robots so that they can finally let the working class die off.

The smart and educated sometimes find work in the government developing their advanced programs, everyone hates them - and everyone envies their high paid jobs.

The EU is trying to cooperate with both the US and China and is still talking of combating climate change together etc., but secretly American bankers are plundering the region by installing one idiot/corrupt politician after the other.
718  Economy / Economics / Re: Greece mulls Euro exit on: May 17, 2012, 08:18:06 AM
According the polls still 75% of them just want keep the euro-debt-bubble inflating.
That's amazing if true...

Gawd I hope it all collapses so the world may return to sanity.
719  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Proposal: Pre-emptive measures against 51% attacks on: May 17, 2012, 07:58:24 AM
Trusted parties should be people who have an ownership stake in the system. If you want to identify who truly wants bitcoin to succeed, ask who is willing to bet money on its success. The trustworthy people will plunk their money down. Proof-of-stake. Ownership and control in the same hands, not separated. It's that simple. Anything else can and will be gamed.
So if I bet 49 BTC on my block it should win? Wink

Proof of stake can be gamed as well - the block hashing ITSELF is proof of stake; you need to stake your computer.


Casacious idea would protect the chain against sudden reversal, but NOT transaction blocking.


The ONLY defense against 51% attack is blocking certain IPs - ALL of them except a few trusted parties if necessary.

If you want to be preemptive about it, build it into the client, a block/allow list simply. Let the wallet owners decide who is spewing crap chains.
720  Economy / Economics / Re: Speculate about the year 2020 on: May 16, 2012, 03:50:14 PM
The for profit american prisons have turned into slave camps/merchants.

The "police" are thugs looking for new slaves at any excuse - except if you are white or (especially) if you are rich.

Lots of NGOs have become independent villages/states, though only in areas the government doesn't have the resources to oppress - ie. slightly hippie-ish/Amish communes in deserts and such.


BTC and TOR are used to avoid detection by police in most cases.
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