We will need several attempts to leave the resistance levels of about 121, 135 and 150 behind. Then there is 167 and 267, but they were never confirmed with volume anyways.

I prefer to think that the strength of the resistance is important, but equally important is the move required to reach it. It is like marching armies to a battle. Sun Tzu writes:


You have a certain buying pressure, but if you want to conquer something that is 100 li (about 25%) away, no matter how weak it is, you will certainly fall. After such a move, sellers smell any sign of blood, and the 61% retracement is sure to happen. (This is pretty much my trading strategy: only sell after this move, because you cannot really lose)

If you need to advance 50 li (12.5%) and then demolish the wall, half of the buying pressure is already relieved, and likely the wall will hold. Even if it falls, the chances are great that the region will be revisited sooner or later.

After 30 li (7.5%) you have a mighty power to attack a wall, but even then, the victory is not sure.

Depending of the strength of the resistance, it should take up to 4 assaults to conquer it. No matter how strongly you destroy the wall, the region will be revisited. From hindsight, it was not a surprise that $50 support defended 4 intraday assaults during the mid-April crash. It took 5 assaults to conquer it when it was a resistance.

I admit I was wrong with my $115 never again call. I just did not see any stronger holds than $121 which was the 1st retracement of the 50->167 move. My fundamental analysis bias is also there. I see sub-1000 bitcoin as so insanely great a buy that I have a hard time differentiating between 134 and 78, although I probably should...

I think the wall at 120 and the strong previous support - now resistance at 121 prevent any crossing of this line for now.

A retracement to 105-6 is in order when the assault to 120 fails. This would be my original prediction from several hours ago.

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

Damn, I was almost there!   If rontus had been working (fortunately he only works about 50 hours of 168 per week, and generally not on Saturdays, and even of his working time, I only give him authority to sell short about 30% of the time, so this is purely of theoretical interest now) he would certainly have smelled the trend change and managed to sell about BTC430 at an average price of $113.2. Then I would have told him to buy back at $103 (he is better in selling but my buyback levels are more spot on).

The 42,500mBTC profit would have enabled our lifestyle for several days...


Indeed we are. There are only so many bitcoins in the world, and a lowest class supernode is not a U.S. Administration of 100,000 skilled professionals, but an ordinary bloke who bought in any time before March 2013, and has some spare time, and knowledge of English, maths and history. Of course when we go up the ladder, there will be many rpietilas, and in the higher level Goat, MP and Winklewii.

Read the "supernode OP" for more info and comment where appropriate!


Why is it so offensive that I live in a classy hotel? The highest burn rate of $200k per month was last week, now I spend at about $50k per month. If I go home and eat noodles, my expenses still run at about $20-30k minimum, since I have staff. Most of the businessmen do, in the real world. Generally their expenses are much higher than mine. I am actually very stingy, compared to most of my friends.

If you think this is excessive for what I manage to accomplish, how about complaining about how your very own tax money is spent in Afghanistan with far less positive effect? I would say the difference is about 4 orders of magnitude, in other words 10,000 times more money totally wasted!

With a rather conservative price prediction for the following 3 months, I estimate a 100% per month increase, which would mean that per every BTC100, you make about $10k first month. A 3rd class supernode can quit eating noodles and start to live. A 2nd class supernode of BTC1,000 can do what I do, and I just await that the real big guys start to benefit the mankind with their stashes.

This is the reason I spend - to show that even a medium BTC-holder can do this! No reason to hate, rather you live up to your own standard, and I live up to mine. If you have at least BTC1,000 as I assume every 2012 or before has (unless he proves otherwise), you can do the same as I do, with ease. Why should I do all the work?? Every city needs at least one supernode, and I am here to help these becoming reality. It is one of the workshops in the summit.

Besides there is no "flooding of community". I post my theoretical observations to my own thread. Then I post my price predictions here, and every time I do, some April 14th troll speaks negatively of me. Then I correct the misunderstanding. In no way I am here to cause disturbance - the instant the OP wants me to go, I go - but we all know that actually a 3-month quarantine for all newbies is the real answer to the problem, pointing me is easy but not too smart.


How about the following:
- You escrow 100 bitcoins for my 1
- You write a 2013 $100,000 call option to your bitcoins, so that I can buy them from you anytime, by just sending you $10 million U.S. Dollars
- If I do not redeem your bitcoins before 31. December 2013, you get my 1 bitcoin as I lose the bet

This way everybody profits. Even if you lose, you get $10 million, and the rest of your bitcoins are worth even more. If I lose, I only lose 1 bitcoin, and I still have a lot (and they were not that valuable anyway.. )


My middle initial is A.

+1, except forum join date was wrong and my first Mt.Gox acct is opened and funded in 2011

Not much, really When you start to do something productive, then your actual influence will increase. If you don't, then you are a sleeping giant. Your call.

In February, nobody knew me. Now, everybody knows me. When I have finished the developments I am about to achieve, I will move on to other things.

Then the on-topic part: I think the walls permit bitcoin to rise to $119 in a bold move. Afterwards I go to sleep and not post, and the general bullishness erodes, and the bears push the price back to $106. We will not see 100 ever again.

Goat: it's OK, I understand this is crazy and too soon, but it is also crazy that Mark and Peter fight against each other. I don't have as many bitcoins as you, but I do this for my own bitcoins' sake, and I would appreciate a tip if you think my work is useful to Bitcoin as a whole, thank you!

So you are coming after all...?   I was wanting you to come. I extended the stay to 5 nights (from original 3) for the same price. The weather is nice, and I managed to secure a white limo:



It is fine if this is sent to Smoothie wall observer thread. I submit.

One possible way is to generate a fiat cash flow. Exchanging it for bitcoins, in a way is going "more all in".

I explained this somewhere but whatever.. I am not all in, in the sense that I still own considerable other wealth such as 10,000oz of silver that is currently for sale in return of bitcoins. If you want to point my inconsistencies, you should first read and understand me. (Many people think they can point inconsistencies in the Bible, whereas in reality they don't even understand the whole thing, in most cases they haven't even read it. Disclaimer: I am not the Bible, or Jesus, or Satoshi. Just a messenger.)

I think I was technically wrong on that prediction. But what I do (and think it is sensible for you to do also) is to only trade when you are right with a great degree of confidence.

I am currently buying bitcoins, not much care about the price, since with a high degree of confidence, they will be worth much more after 6-12 months. Somebody else may take more risks to gain more shorter term, and I am fine with that. I am very risk averse, and my 10-yr APR is 41% (in liquid terms only, not including paper valuations of illiquid companies that I own many). Most of the time I am wrong (as we all are), but when I do hold the nuts (like I do with bitcoin), you don't want to be the counterparty  

According to my classification of supernodes, roughly the following amounts of bitcoins, coupled with the actual abilities to use them profitably, entitle you to the supernode status:

0.0th class supernode = BTC1M
0.5th class supernode = BTC100,000
1.0st class supernode = BTC10,000
1.5th class supernode = BTC3,000
2.0nd class supernode = BTC1,000
2.5th class supernode = BTC300
3.0th class supernode = BTC100

Yes, I also think it is ridiculously cheap to be a supernode. But don't worry, it will become more expensive when the time is ripe. As I have been trying to say, in my view Bitcoin is insanely undervalued

What exactly is wrong with you?? I never said I am something great. I am a messenger. That I said in the beginning and it still holds. I am one supernode, likely among the 400 bitcoin richest people in the world. I know personally several people who are above me. Some of them fellowship with me, give me guidance, then I spend my time writing about these things. You probably don't even have as much as I do, so you should listen to me. I have nothing to learn from you (at least what you have written, either you are mistaken, or I already know it - try harder).

This Michael I don't know, but probably he is chatting with the people who control me. Or maybe not. People are not that important, the technology is important, and the concepts are important. Read my diary, it is the best explanation of what is happening in the Bitcoin universe right now. If you don't believe, you just point me to the springs of knowledge. Otherwise, please stop. Others want to learn. Thank you.

OK, but a great bubble was only in 2011, and the one that takes bitcoin to more than its long term value will be named the greatest bubble.

A bubble that is forgotten in 2 weeks is not a bubble in my vocabulary but maybe in yours, i am fine with it.

The only time I net sold bitcoin was over $200 (except some trades that I plan to buy back in max 6 hours, and some OTC trades that are wildly profitable marginwise, and I delay buyback max 72 hours; sometimes for the reason that it takes such long time to get the money to Bitstamp, other times I little bit play with my anticipation of a negative price action).

After dealer network, bubbles will be pretty much a thing of the past, so after June, no bubbles.

Deleting a post from this thread is no offence from my part. I have just decided that the thread should be a 30-minute read. So I always keep it as maximum 10 pages long. I have deleted 95% of visitor content so far, and about 30% of my own posts also. Even an old post will be deleted when I no longer consider it relevant to the new readers. If you want to develop the idea in your post further, please do it in your own self-moderated thread. In my thread everything will be deleted eventually.

I don't know every cool guy, sorry. Only the ones that frequent economics, speculation. Esp. technical I don't know.

You can buy yourself a ticket if you want to participate (real/virtual) there is 4 more available as of now.

There is only about 1.5 days left before the admission window to the I Bitcoin Supernode Summit closes.

I have stayed in the Haikko Manor for 3 days now, thinking how to best achieve the results that we want from the summit. I have decided the following:

- We will cease to sell virtual admissions separately for a 5,000mBTC refund. The 3 virtuals so far will be refunded.

- The admission window will be open until midnight Sunday UTC (about 37.5 hours from the timestamp of this post) as stated previously

- Only 4 more admissions will be sold, and they will be sold for 7,000mBTC, 8,000mBTC, 9,000mBTC and 10,000mBTC, respectively. No more tickets will be available for purchase after these ones are purchased. You can just pay to the address and send me PM afterwards, otherwise you risk losing out if somebody pays first. It does not matter whether you come personally or not, virtual admission costs the same now.

- I will set up the summit organization on Tuesday, and you can come if you want even then, I will host you the two extra nights at my expense. So practically the ticket includes full board for 6 days (5 nights) instead of 4 days (3 nights).

- The previous opening day of Thursday will see some increase in the organization such as the Secretariat will open then and we can register the letters of attorney. (If the delegates want to legally represent some persons or corporations, prepare the documents in the notarized way).

- The matters we discuss are quite important, as I don't know how operative the Bitcoin Foundation is in the middle of this lawsuit, MP is for some reason still ridiculing me despite my attempts to establish contact, also it should be obvious that the USD/BTC exchanges in their current form cannot support millibitcoin's price going much past $1, and therefore need to be overridden as soon as possible.

- We will provide real time and delayed audio, video, and transcript material of the meetings according to our discretion.

- The Bitcoin Dealers' Association and the Supernode Network will be established during the summit, or immediately following it. The clearinghouse will probably not be established yet, since to function properly, it needs that bitcoin price first go up, and then slowly down to its long-term stable value. This is not expected to happen in the following 3 months.

- All delegates please send PM to me, or skype "ristopietila" or send SMS +358503235950 in the next 36 hours, we will decide what forum we will use for practical arrangements, the delegates have already set up skype chats, fb forums, threads and all, but it is a little bit of a mess and we need to clear it to start functioning properly

Only about 1.5 million bitcoins in speculative (fiat-denominated) hands now. All the rest are owned by the likes of me, I am not selling any bitcoins below the long term realistic value of $300k/BTC (except in anticipation of a correction and purchase of more bitcoins).

When I finish my current spree of public talking and start making money full-time, I think I can generate at least BTC100 every day just as profits. The other supernodes will do the same, and:

- first we will be able to absorb the new supply of BTC3600 per day, and
- then start to eat up the remaining 1.5M coins that is currently in the exchanges.
- Also I will be able to sell a minimum of BTC1000 per day to my strong hand clients every day starting about 2 weeks from now.

The endgame will be rather quick. Everybody who buys even 1,000mBTC now, will be a millionaire before Christmas. I will post more proof in the following weeks. Now I go to plan the conference, that will be the place to decide the practical matters how this will be accomplished.

I think the best herb will continue to be available about 200-500mBTC per gram in OTC trade. I would not pay more than 1,000mBTC unless I really wanted to have some.

+1. There is certain wisdom behind a $5000 VIP tag

There was no bubble in April, 2013, since there was no negative month. Oh yes, and if you think we will be at $120 at the end of this month (to score a wash), you can as well sell all your bitcoins to me now 

From my hat. I will post some proof later, but the mobile phones example of 1998-1999 is a good primer.


Good stuff is increasingly hard to find even now. I believe silk road will be out of (quality) herb, in about July, 2013.