I've been following India and its economy since the turn of the century and it has amazing potential for development similar to how China was finally recognised and developed.    However it also has great problems to overcome and reasons why it is has not already broken through, long standing traditions which are opposed to capitalism in some cases despite being the worlds largest democracy it is not exactly orientated towards open business.  One of the key reasons India is suffering some tightening in its economic range and expansion could be the rise of the US dollar index recently, some parts of financing come via dollar which means India may struggle to source and repay debts owed in dollars to foreign investors.    The best chance India has to continue growth is from the smallest elements growing within their country, they should consider crypto as a positive I dont doubt.  
  India is on the list of top countries with many people without bank accounts available so any services delivered to those without proper access to simple transactional ability is a positive to aid business.  

  The biggest problem with crypto use in India is they still need that basic line of internet access and basic electronics to keep rising, there are many with but also without, it may just be a question of more time needed.   There is critical mass required in every market where the majority have it easily within their grasp and this payment method becomes viable as the default payment method and that'd be a great thing to see happen in such a large potential early stage market.

10k is nothing because the figure is different in every currency, I believe the Japanese have 1 million already.   We dont spend our days thinking about it though.
    If we flip on our ultra bearish welding googles to consider the extremes and its always possible sure but last case of such a thing is early 2018 when we passed the 20 week average by 4000 before recovering.   I watch an options trader who covers these bands of probability to price movements, there has to be a kind of mood to run straight over the normal kerbs that channels price normally.   Usually theres a big run up for such things to occur.   I dont see it right now, its quite calm but if we get some upset then sure.
   A reasonable band to price fall right now is about 1000 and then we need move the needle to break support working previously.

On the last halvening, it was hyped and the price did rise.   I guess percentages matter here because it was only hundreds at the time but still there was lots of bullish talk, its coming its coming.   This is an easy bet, its for sure going to take off as soon as the block reward halves.  
   But that isnt really true, the whole process is like a year long transformation to the supply of less BTC per block.   The actual date of change means on that day every ten minutes its half as much, and it doesnt matter at all because thats barely anything vs the large amounts of BTC stacked up either side on the markets all around us.     Eventually there is a cumulative influence, a tightening and I think that has to be at least a year.

    Anyone buying for that reason or speculating is way too early anyway but it doesnt matter because its a non event, boring but true sorry.   Also every echo of this block reward event is half as important as the last, so double everything I just said.   It mostly went down after BTC halving short term anyhow, maybe the deflation in expectations in some way distributed and helped alt coins but afterwards can probably go holiday for rest of the year and not miss that much in terms of accelerated moves or trend transformation.
   However I'm always too cynical for BTC it seems, I'd be a millionaire a few times over and broke again in a Jesse Livermore kind of way if I believed 100% in many tech ideas occuring during my trading life.


I'll believe it if theres a reason why.   People might dislike the ETH token thing and ICO and that kind of expansion but it explained why, anyone who paid attention and could foresee that did well.
    What should be driving the next alt coin phase should be efficiency, development, end user experience and engagement.   Its totally possible if they hook into the world economy and provide utility.   Hopefully its more then the idea and is an actual thing, I'd love to see genuine advancement and price doesnt matter if actual progress occurs.
    I always thought POS should have a turn, it could be a thing of the people and I've never found a good argument why it couldn't be a technology utilised.   Ideas have to be tested, economically the market is part of that I guess.   The ETH take on POS is not what I mean as it doesnt include the smallest 'bits' of the economy, thats where I see the power for growth.

I'm pretty sure people like the simple image, so I will post this weekly bars take.     Seems to be price hovers here for a couple reasons, we have the idea of a declining trend of prices and also the 50 day average is around here.     It would appear BTC can gain from here but at least from the weekly view we want this to confirm above here, still very much a maybe



So its friday tomorrow and weekend action, often I think thats a rise or light action.   We should be taking off from 10500 and if not, I think thats a bit of a weak response.    THere is also the echo of the initial 13k fall to 9k to consider and if we are slipping down the rungs of that recovery or showing a steady recovery, I remain a cynic for this moment.

Its a business and the profit loss is clear when they operate gambling with people losing or winning with a certain percentage taken from the overall proceeds for the company.  They win some on every game operated thats how it works and online sites have great operating economies of scale vs bricks and mortar companies fairly certain.    Oldest business in the world is gambling tbh and this site alone has been around 6 years now is it, maybe more.    Thats one hell of a pyramid, are we talking ancient Egypt empire sized pyramid or is this term possibly overused do you think.    
   All of Bitcoin has been declared a pyramid scheme for years, yet it keeps being used with a regular cycle of funds in and out and various gains and losses.   That sounds pretty normal to me, a pyramid scheme is really unrealistic gains always, rarely pulls back or shows a proper loss and no one is quite certain how its doing business or what its purpose served is.    If you are unclear how a business gains a profit from operating games of gambling we can go over it but the maths is fairly simple.

One of the largest hedge fund busts ever was from risky arbitrage bets on certainties that had to pay off, a certain profit for everyone and the bank roll was billions.   It did work to start off but after some time the impossible happened and even with the knowledge and operative expertise of several Noble prize winners and other geniuses, despite many billions in backing from private, company and banking capital they still went bust.   It was so giant it was the direct predecessor to Lehmans, they assumed that their risks would always come their way eventually but it just got worse for them.    
  I realise you are talking on a much lower scale and sports not general market risks but the its same idea of its a certain win, unfortunately theres always risks and the more people force a profit the bigger it can fall over.    Its maybe ok if you take profits regularly and presume one day the betting firm just walks off with the account balance, which I believe is a possibility due to T&C and other arguments.  
   The example I'm referring to was LTCM if you want to look it up, a big deal in the 90's and of course we never learnt properly from it.  Their former legal council now writes books and gives interviews on the forthcoming multi national big bust cycle, by the name of Jim Rickards and its definitely relates to BTC which he mentions as part of the dollar system speculative economy.

Max has debated vs Schiff on this topic I think but before Bitcoin Max was in orbit of the financial crisis calling for the fall of all major banks as corrupt and no longer productive.   He has always been an animated fellow in this regard

Years back he was a stock broker and probably in the employ of one of these major banks so he has at least seen the business from the inside also and knows the score.
  Also I think before Bitcoin I can remember him advocating silver coins and the rise of this as a replacement for FIAT, crash JP Morgan if you remember that slogan and that bank had a short on silver but if I remember right they also owned a majority share in a silver mine so really this was a time based arbitrage and price in market vs reserves in the ground, etc.
  Silver did go from single digits to $50 around the same time gold more then doubled, played perfectly there was a very profitable trade there but sadly it reversed right back down.   8 years later we are just entering back into a precious metal breakout scenario I think, its a been a while but decades is how these mines move.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghBkuuk9vpI
8 years ago, buy silver & gold.   We were developing a trend that should have been sold within a couple years,  so yea it was ok to buy as trader or if you were ok with holding it 10 years.    Just so long as nobody has unrealistic expectations I dont mind Max Keiser but all the same people get carried away thinking it'll always be clear skies ahead if you buy some inverse dollar asset when its often not and he doesnt help in that regard.  
   I dont find him realistic of the whole picture and the interaction between finance assets across world trade.

Alot of this is about attitude, we can lose far more then money in life.   The secret to happiness is to appreciate all the things you have been lucky on, its quite ironic there is any people who are very rich but sad people but there definitely is partly because they placed their priorities wrongly.
   Anyone born in a modern western country is born rich compared to a large part of the world born into struggling economies and poor basic standards of health across the population.   You can win just being a member of a successful country, I know many are proud of where they are born but also there is a great benefit gifted to those in the west in terms of wealth ability.   I try not to take that for granted, I would be alot more sad if I missed all the positives I'm lucky with even if I'm not that rich and I've never really won a big bet.

  This attitude adjustment could even play into winning more regularly, a bad attitude I'm pretty sure makes for bad luck because its harder to balance when to walk away from the tables when you dont appreciate the good luck you receive.  If I win on 1% odds even if its a small amount, I appreciate my good luck all the same.

Bit of history to remember is the UK was forced to leave the EU single currency prior to euro over 25 years ago.   It was not supported then by its 'partners'  perhaps because it was too big is my estimate.

Leaving the EU doesnt mean ceasing trade, its all about the nonsense which is politics.  Business and the people would continue to be fine I believe, I was surprised on the Brexit vote but the main incentive seemed to be people wanted to vote out the people in control and that was not especially in their grasp so they opted to leave.    Politics doesnt agree with leaving behind such a rich source of yet more politics but I dont believe UK would suffer any more then Norway does sitting outside EU by their own populations choice, its mostly about democracy I think.   Germany or others cant block UK trade, its way too large to lose as a target market.
   Meanwhile the Sterling currency is dropped to a discount to dollar and EURO which I would guess is a positive as it reflects reality, BOE has printed giant amounts of QE and the currency is indeed worth less then ten years ago.   Better to price it realistically and to engage world business then suffer a false economy and the burden of even further debt; lower exchange rate does mean import prices rise though.

  All the major currencies creating QE programs they cannot unwind, struggle to stop even is part of why BTC has a tailwind behind it.



Main market trader think we are risk adverse at present on several fronts, I think that does play on BTC also

I can already buy a BTC holding in my pension as Iam the manager of it, the price quote is a bit flaky when I looked this year and previous so I never bothered.   I stuck it in gold because I thought that quite certain and solid, overall gold is not popular and I imagine BTC even less so but its a smaller market anyhow.  
   After all I have BTC anyhow but considering this years price rise I guess should have, still its not a pension type asset so I didnt but I dont doubt there are big company investors and speculators already in BTC.   We'd not be idling around 10,000 without some of this bigger money, its why I think dollar index, larger market moves do have an effect on BTC because some of this money market involvement is leveraged.


  Greater accessibility and trading in the market would no doubt cause BTC to break any medium term trend that might be holding it back.   We'd see a rise, its then debateable do we see actual greater participation and holdings of BTC but likely we would, just like Libra is going to have an effect on currency holdings should it proceed with a mixed currency basket.   It'll alter balance some and if its a growth trend then its big news even more.   If you introduce a million people or more to products they did not have on their menu previously, it'll make a splash in the market books for those products.

That perspective is a bit cliche, we forget a large part of the world war 2 effort and success was down to code breaking using the first computers.   This modern generation didnt invent the idea, weren't the first to encounter cipher use daily; most of whats happened recently is development based on previous achievements by previous generations.
  My father is older then this guy and a very enthusiastic supporter of computer technology as mold breaking.   Attached to the government, he used some of the first end user computers with punch cards and similar level tech and even at that early stage it was game changing.   Its very possible previous generations still have the foresight to understand technology can alter substantially the lay of the land and balance of play.

The big deal now and probably the biggest generational change in my life time will be with the balance of power within Finance.   The current layout also goes back to ww2 and to change that system is going to alter the world, that part could be past the vision of almost anyone.  We are all so used to FIAT being dominant and based around nations not commerce that we cannot imagine anything else, I think thats true for someone who uses BTC every day even.  
   If someone is obsessed with BTC going to zero they are ignoring the elephant in the room which is the collapse from excess debt and instability of possibly several major currencies.   If they can at least contrast technology development with old monetary systems I can believe they are more accurate in their conclusions.
  Ditto when people say BTC is going to be a million per unit now because thats all we will use, thats just ignorance of the whole spectrum of possibilities for trade and monetary proxies society might find useful.

No I'm still watching because it feels like a repeat to me, still.   Amazing we bounce around more in this box recently then a game on a Squash court.



I drew this fresh just quick to see how it might seem from a quick look but I think its still justified on old charts even.   If we're closing above the 50 day average on daily bars then very possibly I'm wrong but seems we are not yet proven to 'break out' in a normal way.
   Actually reminds me of this time last year when we had some similar action continually bouncing except that was around the 6500 area upwards.   People said it couldnt be lower then that because of mining costs or something, this repeated many times with no resolution and it also seems like that now.


A clip of the initial peak and fall, it was the sharpest and quickest.   What I'm referring to when I say its a repeat, the recent low is around the bottom of the pin here (far right) and the top prices today are the first horizontal band or about 23% of price range - weak!
   So all this time later and we are struggling to achieve what occured in 1 day on July 2nd.

There is a thread where people can post their seed for winning the lottery I think.   I've posted in reply to someone who started a thread but actually theres an official claim thread and it says when you win go post there and claim a little bit extra for posting your ID.   I've definitely seen someone do this.

Heres my 1% chance win - https://i.imgur.com/iOIhKK5.png   Not sure that helps you, its a humble win lol  sorry its not impressive but I count 1% as lucky.   I have had a few of them and I'll post if I get even more slight odds.

Also there is golden ticket chance for deposits at the moment, for those waiting on that offer - https://i.imgur.com/fbOnOaZ.png    I'm now scrolling in anticipation through available colours for a Lambo because they arent boring like Ferrari.

I know this bank and have held shares in them, its an ancient bank and at times very profitable but not because its criminal but due to involvement with developing nations across the commonwealth and Asia which can be a very profitable position of arbitrage.    It helps illustrate why central authorities dislike or fear Bitcoin because it is not centralised, it cannot be controlled or easily rebuked as happened to Standard Chartered.    
   Stan must clear dollars in order to do business and taking part in that market requires the pass of various regulators and exchanges based in the USA, this means even as a global bank largely based outside the west they still are under the remit of the laws and sanctions of a country(s) in the west.   The UN is often not so powerful as it lacks the depth of power in this way so its left to supporting nations such as USA or similar to enable the actions taken behind the headlines that sanctions bring.  
   If BTC has no central authority, no reigns to control its usage it can easily be seen as a problem by some.   Its a threat to politics and the control they want over various countries, it doesn't have to be doing anything especially bad just the fact it exists and its large enough to move hefty amounts of cash through is some kind of latent threat it seems.
  Gold is at least heavy and subject to physical confiscation and control, BTC is instant and undefinable in regulation terms almost.

Yep if it was ever a secret, the path to greater success is to take account and responsibility for losses without overreacting in an irrational way.   Thats why the maths methods probably come closest to forming a good strategy to combat the whipsaw reactions of your average human when playing a game.   
   I always suggest people start off with little bets not because I dont want them to win big but it has to become familiar and untroubling to their strategy and composition when playing in order to have that success.   Monster mentions work, well being careful, cautious and calm is I guess a step closer to work.     Some people can play everything like a game, have fun and somehow navigate a way through which is profitable to themselves but most of us arent this skilled and steady in the chaos, we got to do slow ground work first in hope we get the fireworks later.

Thing is he runs an index, so why is he sliding all of his holdings away from the main blockchain as if thats a sensible thing to do.    He could have held many varied holdings and done better because none of us can know for sure what direction markets will be taking now and in the future



Do we really think Bitcoin is going to rise for the last 8 months and also 8 months going forward in a continuous way.    I'm not this optimistic, seems a little simple to imagine we just rise upto that event.   I understand its helping reduce supply vs demand still growing, a positive for price most likely (long term but certainly not instantly) but also I believe it could easily be over anticipated.  
    In a market with many speculators and actual user growth and development to facilitate this still much required I think we can get ahead of ourselves.    

If you want to play with fire like that, go via options and also setup a company to trade.    Then you can carry over losses between tax years and they wont be personal to you and end up losing your house, etc.
  Theres a whole technique to the professional trading and that path is best to take if messing on that scale.   My simple advice to gamblers and speculators alike and such leverage is a fair gamble, it is to stick to risking profits.    If you lose big then you have to start over but some can justify it.

  Options are a good idea because you have a naturally defined risk, you bet on the price for a date and the cost of that bet is fixed and expires on that date.    Its far more methodical then just buy the ******* dip strategy which I dont doubt works out for some anyway

You are right its not fiction, its a reality and its a disaster all the same.    We are living inside this bubble of money printing, in Japan, USA and Europe.   Because they all print money and consult each other they think this is a system that will not collapse but likely it will anyway.    


This is not capitalism and its not democracy imo.   Its a failure to be forcing companies to follow your particular fiscal policy, we live in a global economy and the most competitive environment is where we should expect the productivity, jobs, the population to do best.   Force is a poor alternative to a system that works naturally and does not require a big rule book to hit people over the head with fines and punishments because natural economics does not agree with your forced ideas.

  I love beautiful design and natural dynamics because humans despite their amazing achievements and potential are still a natural phenomena especially en masse such as an economy and the system of trade between countries across great distances.   Anything that works well reflects current trade and enables to perform better, inflation undermines and destabilizes an economy and especially the people who cannot create new currency.


Its debatable as production will vary by price and also efficiency.  Russia could be the worlds largest producer if it did so in an efficient way.
    Venezuela has the worlds largest proven oil reserves, witness the mess they have made of that great wealth.   The problem is they needed great refinement of their particular oil type, it had to be done carefully and in an adjusted way accounting for price vs costs.   What they got was massive government burden forcing laws on price controls etc and destroying or seizing private companies.    Oil is a great demonstration for how easy it is to screw over what could be wealth and power for a nation.

^^ Money management 101, only risk what you can afford to lose or at least money you dont care about.   Thats why crypto started off as an ideal token to be gambling because the price could go either way, what great regret is there to have about things you cant control.     Both the price and odds can favour us or not but its part of a larger picture we cant say.  The company manages to make a profit out of providing a gamble even while providing free bets and you get to have a game and something to use with the BTC.  
  I really think the trick to either profiting or at least enjoying the gamble is to not to overbet, I like the really remote odds because I dont trick myself thinking I cant lose.    Take the event bets if you dont like the more random games, simple solution to the unfortunate reality gambling is hard to win on average.

We have to say Bitcoin is bullish if it closes above 10300 today at midnight UTC or forum time.


I havent drawn in the downtrend on this chart but you can see we've had a series of regular high prices that were lower then previous weeks.   So a negative trend, if Bitcoin is establishing a high now at 11,000 or similar then its breaking that declining trend and I think we can say its breaking out of that trend.

The blue line is 50 day average, its closing above that today.   The horizontal lines are Fib % of previous falls, its quite bullish its fair to say.