OP is a thought out piece of text. I would instruct the poster to create a new self-moderated thread with the same OP, to make the discussion a more sensible read. I advocate that the OP deletes unworthy stuff as soon as he sees it, and compresses the thread to max 2-8 pages every 24 hours, like I have done with my diary.

Thank you for your thoughts,

Bitcoin can change in a heartbeat. Superficially it may look that you can easily buy bitcoins sub-0.1, as it has spent several hours under it and the wall observer shows a wall at 0.1.

Don't fall on the trap: Everything can be fake, until you receive the bitcoins.

I have been a full-time silver dealer for 7 years, I know. Until you get the silver, you can imagine what you want and rant endlessly about the fiat price and its supposed crash. All the fiat in the world cannot buy you 10% of the world's silver, and neither it does buy 10% of physical bitcoins.

There was a day in October 2008, I could not buy silver in this world for any price.

There was a day in March 2013, there was no bitcoins for sale in Bitstamp.

I advice you to buy right now, as I have been doing all the way. The only official selling suggestion I have ever issued for bitcoin, was the following [translation from Finnish mine]:

Thursday April 11th, 12:52 UTC:


Translation of my own text:

I would, however, like to know, if you are now in the process of buying bitcoins, since due to the crash they are cheap?

I dare to stick to my argument that the February blog post of mine (in which I urged to buy bitcoins for EUR 15) is, and will remain, a more important piece of advice than anything that you have instructed the people to do.

Especially now, as I officially exhort people to sell 20% of their position, to repatriate double the amount of fiat they invested, and ride the freebies "for the longest time" until you develop a desire to buy a private island or a penthouse.

Link to the blog added (original did not have the link, which was considered public knowledge in Finland). Note the added emphasis on the rare word "officially", since there are not so many things that I officially instruct people to do. I am not official

Originally in Wall Observer, which is a good thread to follow if you want to spend about 25% of your waking hours following it. (Well, some people still watch TV and such, you decide...)

The 10-30% weekly increase in adoption (weekly % growth of the # of bitcoin users), will turn this discussion completely ridiculous before the end of this month:
January: 10, February: 20, March: 40, April: 80, May: 160, ... December 20480.
Even the above contains more valuable advice than most said in this thread, although it is public knowledge that this kind of behaviour cannot just increase exponentially. It will go parabolic, crash, and repeat. Not only I believe it will go to $1M this year, I have not heard very many good arguments from anyone, what can hinder it  

Considering that we by and large visited the 3rd fibonacci of $78 (never judge with more than 1-2% precision, this is not voodoo after all but real world, it is close enough - I should have known from the first visit to 91 that 95 will not hold, it is too far), the upmove will just be commensurately violent.

At $50 we saw 4th order fibonabbi retracement double(intraday:triple/quadruple) bottom megamove finalcapitulation (akin to 100 megaton fusion charge). As a result, we rallied 50->167 (234%) in 8 days. Now that is 0.64% per hour, compared to the 0.08% exponential trendline it is 8 times faster rate of appreciation.

The sorry state of mankind is truly manifest in its lack of understanding the exponential function. You do not even regard 0.30% per hour as fast when measured in hourly scale (on the contrary, 1 dollar per 3 hours is considered "bitcoin is dead" in these forums).

By being dead continuously for 2673 hours, bitcoin will reach $300k USD by...

...Christmas, this year?  

No. August, 22.  

Granted, the dealer network and some other stuff will have to begin operating, but the good thing is they will, regardless of what you and I do. Even the dealer network fixing excelsheet I already have, and use it for mathematically heavier calculations than "just" stabilizing the price and flows of bitcoin worldwide, which is pretty easy really. The heaviest part is to write enough on this forum, to convince at least 10 other dealers, which I believe are pretty much convinced already, or will be after the I Supernode Summit.

Yesterday alone, I talked to two people more knowledgeable than me. I am just a messenger, like I said when I started posting in a serious way about 30 days ago.

If someone buys bitcoins in May, 2013, he will be rich. In December, he will be poor. The fair value will be crossed somewhere in between.

ADD:
Visual aid: "Bitcoin is dead in between $90 and $100 now." (zoom to 12h).

[originally written 18 hours ago, posted now due to unavailability of the forum]

I have been taking it easy the last 2 days.. kind of premeditation for the upcoming Summit. I had a three-hour lunch meeting with the staff of the hotel, the MD (of the hotel) paid a visit, hotel paid the food and I paid the wines. Sun has been shining and it is just fine here:


Really relaxing. I acknowledge that there is blood on the streets of bitcoinworld, but everybody is entitled to create their own reality. Mine is: "I have been wrong with my calls concerning $.14, $.121, $.115, $.1, $.095 and $.091. According to my theory, it should visit sub-.08 before heading back up. Perhaps I am wrong with that also. The fibonacci levels are now so close to each other that it does not practically matter. I will be buying as much as I can sub-.1, but I never hold excess fiat so I cannot likely buy that much. If I get to sell the 10,000oz of silver that I listed is for sale (for bitcoin payment only, PM me!), my bitcoin stash goes up by another 2-3 million mBTC, but that does not really matter as silver is also incredibly undervalued, and some diversification is good."

If somebody else meditates according to following lines: "I invested half my life earnings into bitcoin @.167 last week, so now I have lost half of everything I have ever earned, I better sell it now and buy a rope with the proceeds", he is entitled to it. It is pointless to argue, who is "correct". Since I do not feel I have lost by buying silver over $40 and holding it until now, I must have gained. And it is not only me, most of my senior partners feel the same way, and they are still happily buying more silver and bitcoins. (Although some are selling silver for bitcoins, anyway it is good - I get margin both ways.)

This is the curse of bitcoin: everyone who knows shit about bitcoin is nearly 100% all in nearly all the time, and consequently cannot buy much more, no matter how good opportunities present themselves. The ones who don't know shit, are joining the manipulative selling, cutting their fiat gains significantly short of their potential, or even making a loss. The large fish that only ponder about whether to enter into bitcoin or not, don't send their million$ to a place like Mt.Gox, and there is not yet a dealer network that could sell bitcoins for immediate lock-in, delayed payment. So nobody can easily lift the price up despite the ridiculousness of the undershoot. Next week bulls again make money, the following week bears make money, but the pigs get slaughtered every week.

The curse will be lifted, effective days, weeks and months from now as we have the Summit, and we establish the dealer network. Then anyone who wants bitcoins, I mean any number of them, will just need to call the friendly local dealer, and lock in the price expressed in percentage over fix, and at the following fixing, which will be executed every 8 hours perpetually, the dealer can buy the bitcoins, hedging his position, pocket the fee, and nobody is in risk of losing significant amounts of fiat or bitcoins due to unethical middlemen, or substandard trading practices.

I still sport with 12-14% over spot fees even today, but that will be a distant memory as my dealer network will relentlessly crush the fees to sub-1% range during the remainder of the year. The recent event are only solidifying my conviction that this is the most important thing bitcoinworld needs here and now, and it is just logical that I will concentrate my efforts into it. Thank you for your time

As I see it, the manipulators are now cocksure that they can raise walls at $100-$120 range, thinking that they'll hold.

Which I don't think they [the walls] do What is in cards now is a violent rally to $135 "support" (now: resistance) and then retracement to $115-$120 range.

Bitcoin is a fractal, and it is marvellous.

Some of my bigger clients' buy time today...

&&


=> another newb ignored.

Yes. If we don't breach it today, this will likely confirm the end of the retracement, and a new violent upmove will commence in short order.

There is even a thread dedicated to discussion about me, so why don't you go there to do the meta, and let me post just my on-topic price predictions here? Adam, OK?

Isn't that a little bit hard on me, considering that I have never sold below $200 or bought above $120 (except to materially hedge otc trades)?

Even if I did suck, my credentials do outweigh about 99% that I know of here:
- knew of bitcoins before they were traded
- followed Mt.Gox opening, my friend wanted me to invest, I did not, and have bought less bitcoins than him since, but paid about $500k more for them.
- 16 years stock trading, of which 14 years online [edit: correction]
- 7 years full time silver dealership
- now 6 weeks full time bitcoiner

(Sorry adam my dick is normal size.)

Thank you, sir.

If 91 is breached, expect further downside to $75-80 range.

(If not, this is likely it, and no sub-100 coins after today)

Adam, am I welcome in your thread or not? This young man is voicing his opinion on the matter, but I have a hard time recognising him, I don't think we have met...  

No. I am seldom drunk, but I do drink 1-6 glasses of champagne, cava, riesling and occasionally red wine, per day when I am working. When at home, I don't drink that much.

I was drunk when giving the 13,370mBTC though...

Ah ok. Do you own any coins?

Oh no, just please continue without reading my diary....  

I promise to read a 30 minute text from everyone, who knows about bitcoin more than I do. (All aspects of it, not just technical.) Just post the links please.

I think the lawsuit is baked into the current price. Sell the rumor, buy the news

I hope you realize that I am one of the precious few fulltimers that can actually, fundamentally, better the situation they have there (the single point of failure called Mt.Gox). Just read my diary and all the associated things, such as the supernode summit, dealer network etc.

Seleme is the most expensive sockpuppet out there, the account is created about the time when I won the infamous debate "silver vs. bitcoin". I was representing silver, that is...  

I think trading on news (such as the lawsuit), is more difficult than trading completely without them. I haven't in general followed the media since 2002 or so. I don't read analysts, newspapers, watch TV or movies, .... I have been featured in TV many more hours since 2006 than I have spent watching it.

This frees my time for thinking fundamentally. I am a very bad technical trader, but better than 99% as I make money and don't lose my position.
 

I have always prompted people to read my diary first, before daytrading (if any). Since bitcoin is going to $300k in the long run (and higher in the short), it does not make so much sense to fish the bottom unless you do it full time with an organization primed for the task (a supernode).

Just buy and hold. Buying bitcoins at any price sub-100k is not as large a mistake, as it would be to be left out of a supermove, such as the ones in the period between 8/2010-6/2011 and the one started in January 2013.

If everyone were so smart as you claim to be, they would make so much money daytrading that all bitcoins would end up in their pockets in a few short months. I am accumulating about 0.5%-1% of the new mining supply daily. I am content with it, since if the price goes down, this goes up.

The adoption of bitcoin in my observation is growing at a 10-30% weekly rate (and I actually observe things before making my fundamental predictions). There is not much room for further decreases fundamentally.

If we see the third order capitulation to $78, it does not alter any of the fundamental facts.

I saw the bubble coming and sold above $200. My miscalculation was that we would only crash to $100-$120 area and bounce back (2. fib). We did go even as low as $50 and tested it several times (4. fib).

In my thinking, 2. fibonacci should close all moves, everything of higher order is too wonderful to me to understand, and I just buy until it goes away (which it usually does).

I have 10,000 ounces of silver. Takers (pay with bitcoin only)?

Ahem, Welcome - I mean