I imagine Libra gets so slimmed down, its just another version of Paypal and people will use it for convience and its integration into that platform.   Facebook is so massive, its inevitable people will use this form of payment at some point.    Paypal usually gives some kind of purchase assurance so I guess it'd be similar with Libra.
  The larger ideas of any kind of block chain or even crypto usage is less likely and its not well known that Paypal also began with the same idea of an independant currency but found it far easier to just copy dollar.

Great, I hope they will prove those restrained by conventional ideas to be wrong and the people and real economy of Venezuela are able to thrive.   The narrative of an outside influence causing all problems in an economy is not a new argument, its the excuse of many regimes as they fail and circle the pull of a drain.    Natural dynamics in an economy matter, thats all I care about not the politics not the egos and ideas in singular view when the economy is the many never the few.


I read recently Zimbabwe is once again experiencing problems with inflation after inventing a digital currency.  Fortunately they have not tried to label it with the idea of cryptocurrency so far as I know, just they have skipped the idea of endlessly printing paper notes of promised value.   I'm not bothered if its Mugabee or Madro or whoever the name at the top is, I just dont believe these ideas will prosper vs simple natural re-occuring dynamics that have been in play for centuries, force cant make an idea float if the basic principles are compromised.

We are all the whales, if there is a million of us then we are as large as any whale.   Humans want to see faces in the clouds because we are built that way to search for the reflection of humanity but  the market is moved by the flock of sheep not the whales.   Still human but its not the smoking man in a trenchcoat who moves the market really.

Right now nothing is moving the market at all, its quite silent.   Not sure how to take that especially, wider time frames take control perhaps but some are bullish.



4hr bars, moving down the road following the line

^^ worth further study but the giant yearly type predictions have so much space in there for much variance from that big picture.



There is no must be for BTC, it can do anything.   There isn't anything else as cutting edge and this right here remains an unknown imo.   The point I wanted to underline really is on halvening, the effect itself is diminishing which is why I especially say it doesn't have to do anything expected.   Any time the market over estimates an event it would then be less bullish then price is likely leading to, its more likely to trip up so that would relate to the future as per topic title; it hasn't happened yet.

Im going to disagree with the thread titled strategy for today and probably for this week as I think it might be best to take a breakout type buy or sell depending on where we move from here.



So on this cap if we are moving above 200 day average it could be taken as positive from there on, the speculators might actually want to take this level here with a tight stop loss, 8820 or above.     Then I do think its a sell if we can move past and confirm below the 50 day average which is about 8560.   On this occasion buying the dip is not that attractive to me, I only back that idea when its part of a regular pattern of both lows and highs and its too irregular right now.

I dont rate the 200 day or 50 day to be support as such, I know they have held the line but short term the market will do anything so long as there is enough traders willing to respect a level. Over weeks it shouldnt especially be that moving average that is deciding areas to hold or not, as its an indicator but fair enough if it works it works.

I just look at certain points as a show of strength and if it gets past that and holds then its indicated strength or weakness.  



Here is 4hr bars and blue line is 8 day and the yellow is 30 day.   We are still quite weak is what I estimate but if we above the 30 and 8 day I think the price is in a positive phase at that moment.    I expect more weakness (or least a move to 'reset') when its not passing either of these, otherwise the target would be 9500 for it to first meet and beat if we do get a show of strength.

Ok you got me beat on that chart, not seen that one before and I've seen a million possibly.     The clearest points here might be that BTC is older then LTC and each half of the block reward is less important then the last as there more BTC already produced the reduction is diminishing in importance.    We are into the territory of fees mattering now to mining rewards where as five years ago fees meant really nothing or thats how I remember it.

Also with every point observable on BTC the price is connected via a spring, its not direct.    I fully expect price to be more positive before halvening then after because anticipation promotes speculation, that then becomes more important then the event itself.   As always the price gets ahead of itself and then if we go back to the first point the bulk of BTC has already been issued and that weight like a Jenga block game and how it shifts to sell or buy, its way more important then this blip in block rewards.   Compare the two numbers, the amount of BTC liquid available to be sold into buy orders and that alteration to block reward.
   On the event timing itself almost nothing occurs, a year later yes some change happened so its perception vs reality and people go OTT.   If LTC was disappointing, correct observation would be to return just before BTC halvening and draw a conclusion; at present you are observing speculators not the news or fundamental change itself; thats what I strongly suspect.

I was going to say if computers cannot solve the picture recognition thing then machine learning and all that stuff is not as advanced as I thought it had got to.  Not that I think scammers are using cutting edge technology but it usually relates some.
  One day they'll reach a point where it'll break my old .rar file password     The full ascii range and possible 12 characters I guess might need that new quantum computer.
The only big faucet I've seen recently would be in brand new alt coins and thats because they want users just like BTC did all those years ago.   The possibility to pass from one extreme to the other was enough to buy a Lambo at one point when done over years, collecting a coin at its cheapest and selling at its highest.  ETH mining was ridiculous if somehow it was done perfectly, part of history now.


Is there a politics event bet for the UK election, hopefully it will be big enough event to get interest and bets on it going, the potential for wild card outcomes I think is maybe higher then ever before.   Volatility is a bull market 

Its always time to buy Bitcoin but only within a reasonable setup, dont buy it now if you dont also like buying it at 6000.   If the idea is to trade it then we got to be realistic where its possible range is right now.   I think it can move positively upwards so long as it can keep above the 50 day average price.
  Thats the blue line here:



The yellow line is 200 day and harder to pass, the reason for optimism now would be that the 200DMA is rising which means an increasing amount of space to rise potentially.    So this whole area is for trading more then holding within a more certain trend, there is no defined trend for the moment.

Sounds like a fair topic to consider but it wont ever be a fixed ratio when we have a free market and so much of our BTC market is people speculating with many varied reasons for speculating in their particular currency.    Its probably worth graphing this hash rate vs the price and how that develops over time, maybe it gives some indictor of relative value but since BTC does adjust also I guess its never going to fixed or forcing a price to occur.
  Reminds me alot of the ratio for oil to gold prices which does make alot of sense as gold requires so much energy to refine it from the raw material extracted initially, the purity requires quite alot of processing usually.   So over time, many decades they do find it tend to come to a certain ratio but as I remember it can double away from what is expected and its some indication of demand and growth in economies.    Its possible hash ratio can be useful to keep note of also.

Zombie attack isnt the reason, the price should go up with any breakdown of conventional markets because Bitcoin has less dependance on city based operations.
   $5 says one thing and its the compromise of the main protocol and its debatable if any transaction completes if the price were this low because the cost to find a block might be too high.     So I do think BTC can continue but its going to fall back to the zero cost mining, places powered by solar power and hydro power not otherwise used and on really slow equipment maybe, the block time might alter drastically from the 10 minute mark.

Its not impossible BTC recovers from some kind of awful failure, it has happened at one point or time so that alone makes $5 unlikely as speculators will just hold from $100 downwards in a lottery ticket type way.   Anyhow we are talking liquidity problems at some point, external attack isnt the problem this is about internal dynamics.   The reason BTC keeps rising year to year is we live in a world where FIAT continues to fail to keep long term integrity which makes BTC look increasingly required.

400k is like ten years away and buying some bread will be like $20 at that point also because they will have suffered excess money supply, so in value terms who knows.   Thats possible but in 4yr I think it doesnt make sense to me without vast disruption, where as over the decade the change is handled across an entire economy so more feasible.

Saying money is useless is not all wrong, we dont use the paper.  FIAT is often backed by the demand as requirement as taxes.   A money supply in excess of GDP has many problems but also no GDP growth means less tax demand for that paper and if they did raise taxes too high then the whole system becomes avoided by global commerce.
   It is an ironic setup, we dont actually want the money but want that which it represents or what it can buy so we want the purchasing power.    Gold is often stated that way, most dont really want to use it but in its exchange however gold does have that base use and every other form of money potentially has a zero worth possibility.   This generation of economics we are in is at the tail end of generations of failure, soft default and frayed backing to its value and exchange and it can fall apart but it sounds about as real aliens to say so now.
    Paper notes becoming worthless is actually the road map, its the highest probability outcome and the historical precedent but I would argue at least ten years for notable failure.  4yr for BTC 400k comes across as disingenuous.

I thought it was programming syntax maybe, I need to watch that show.   Post a clip for reference ?




Nifty

Just before doing a big buy, triggering an avalanche of selling would be really useful.   Its possible there is some skill in doing that though its a bit risky to take the opposite side to what you eventually wanted to do, ideally for a bigger buy you do want a larger amount of selling because it delays the time when they will realise a steady buyer is available and raise prices when entering orders.   People do play the markets but I'd place it as a minor to the overall natural effects that might apply in the actions of every participant, people are generally jumpy anyway as there is alot of short term speculation.

Even in a bear market, buying in a dip is profitable because the market will be rising at times also.    Its just we have to figure out when is the dip near to a bottom and when does the spike come close to reaching the highest price for that week or month.    If I can do that much I know I'm going to be ok whatever the direction because my speculation is allowing me to trade the difference successfully between the lows back to highs even if the 'staircase' up and down moves are gradually bringing us a bit further down.    
   Its a very difficult market to predict when we have the President of the worlds largest country and exporter declaring what appears to be a reversal of previous policy.  I could be easily wrong of course but my feeling on this was to sell into this rise and carefully watch how it reacted to the 200 Day moving average.   Well we have that result now and its passed right back through that indicator, its not for certain but this is the end of the week after and its closing down not above.
    I think its fair to conclude the road for crypto will lead us down a winding path once more before any destination past 10,000.   It could be we dont visit that area again till next year now, xmas can have some effect also possibly with lighter volume not sure (not every country has xmas I know).   But thats the area I watch now to catch the tide, 50 day and 200 day and how will the BTC waves move between them.

Ive changed my sig and avatar as of this post, thanks.

Its too extended to be a bull flag, I would characterise this current action as negative or neutral at best.   My idea is roughly to identify a trend and if no clear repeated action to the upside or down is apparent then to try and chalk up the rough outline of a range to the price.



I did think we might rise a little more then this over the weekend, its in limbo.   Yellow is 200 day and 50 day is blue just below us and theres various possible trends that might provide us some support in addition but I'm thinking downwards more then this idea we regain 5 figure prices.   It will come around to a bullish sentiment but I dont believe in just hoping for it and I dont see it occuring for now.
  10k might be fair just like alot of targets mentioned but its not especially sustainable unless we repeat the step upwards on the lows also.  So I think we need to carve out more prices down below in a solid pattern and the lower prices is where the bullish action begins which is quite ironic I guess.

I like that style but I want something a bit like on a loop to really get into it, let me know if I should delete that.      The variety of entries is pretty amazing, we are only lacking a Van Goch impressionist oil rendering at this point and we'd have the full scale of artistic endeavours.     I'm hoping to make a modest entry but Im not sure what will have the best chance, could this entry become the logo of this whole forum?

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Will put this sig here to swap in before campaign start if accepted:

Ive only ever stopped for 1 week maybe but reduced size alot from the peak of gambling all day.   I dont count the small scale gamble as quite the same as spending all day watching or preparing bets to place and speculating when to place or hedge various sizes.     Dont think I really need to stop betting longer then that so long as I can reduce the amount I gamble to a point where the loss amounts is just for fun, its not a major factor at that point just an interest.