5000 wont happen easily now we're printed some much volume about 6000.    Maybe Mt. gox liquidated coins are being sold off or some other reason that leads to weakness, we'd find that out afterwards I guess but right now its not especially apparent.


There is no 50% Fibonacci level if we were being strict about it and of course we arent, all we are trying to do is guess where others place significance in any move forward and sort the amount of momentum and true direction from speculative activity.
  50% is just invented by people as a place to take some profits, in a natural order its not got any greater power to it presuming Fibonacci itself does.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp

I'd normally take the 38 and 61% levels are good confidence levels that the move will complete, if we cant even stay above 38% then its quite weak.

Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type.   Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.


Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely.   It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay.   Or is that options Im thinking of.

Technical analysis doesnt work for anything in an absolute certain way, its just a way of calculating likely probability.    Its very prone to criticism for being undefined in any resolution but I think its generally helpful in conjunction with multiple other views including obviously fundamentals, news, market liquidity, macroeconomic balance, etc.
  Stuff like will the FED cut rates, operate monetary easing programs for the rest of the year is pretty relevant and nobody knows that answer via any means for sure, I bet the FED doesnt even; plus deflationary events like the middle east upset, etc

   Dec 31st is cloudy because its the holiday season but then BTC is global and many dont celebrate xmas or even the new year at that point.    I hope I come to a positive estimate from here rather then negative but I'm going to take the full week to consider the medium to long term view on this one and hopefully I get a good guess in before the deadline next week.

Minimum wage is an artificial way to force pricing for Labor.   Its not really a correct way for a capitalist economy to operate with prices set by government, it can cause dangerous imbalance in supply and demand.    Its a related problem that government is forcing interest rates to stay low so that they can set debt repayments low or they might be insolvent or bankrupt even, similar to Greece which had no control to fix rates in this way.
   The QE programs are also faking demand which is not there for the debt.    All these measures represent weakness in the economy, inflation causes instability and irregular value and disruption to prices because value is no longer there as it should be.   The min wage does not fix inflation unfortunately, workers feel the failings in currency from the costs it causes to them where as large business likes the low cost of debt and can alter prices as they dominate various markets.

PLAY is a ETH token that is entirely used for betting on esports games or in theory it can be determined for any bet if you have some experience.   All holders of the token receive a portion of games ongoing using PLAY, I believe its a 1% received by all holders of the currency.    Seems
 like a project that deserves to receive more interest, I'll get a link for anyone interested.

Here is the market cap listing that links into various other details, hopefully they garner greater usage as its just the Developer website running games at present but I think anyone can run games using this token in theory - https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/herocoin/

If you really think the whole system is rigged and theres just a price set in a backroom by some smoking men in trenchcoats, you should probably short the whole thing because its gone way too far already if its not reflecting actual demand from users around the world.   If its a false setup then it'll fall far more then this and for good reasons.
    A bigger move down is not especially unexpected, its been on the cards for a while and its just a move that triggered recently.   Some thought it'd go up, its not and they bailed their longs and that in addition to others already negative allowed the price to move downwards outside of its prior range.    Thats just a normal thing, maybe its tied to Bakkt news or expectations.   People are usually just far too unrealistic about immediate effects, Bakkt could be amazing but we might not know for a year or more after this.   People expect it to be a rocket ship blasting off from day one which is silly but thats the human imagination for you, BTC is super speculative and in such markets 20% is quite reasonable.
   Examine commodity markets and they can move 10% on a day and that would be something hundreds of years old, well considered and far larger and mature then BTC but commodities are always volatile and BTC fits right into that imo.  

Price rose off some support and is roughly positive on a week basis so its a reasonable rise thats occurred overnight as I thought it might.   Failure to move down has been quite bullish .



Its only a short term move and the top prices now are the 200 day average which is significant discouragement, check how it reacts to this for a bigger recovery.

Blockchain is a technology, not a system of AI to determine business risk or other person to person required assessments.    I think its been universally accepted that blockchain is a genuine advancement in the secure capabilities of internet transactions.    Most times I hear or read blockchain discussed they also say they do not accept crypto as significant or Bitcoin currency as especially valid for advancement of economies and intend to use blockchain with their own ideas of unilateral and centralized control, which unfortunately loses alot of the benefits people and society could benefit from.
   Banks will always exist just as people who want to borrow and promise to repay in future will always ask for this service to be provided.    Some have tried to make blockchain allow to account for this with contracts or similar but I think the two are separated still and the judgement on credit worth will always be about humans or employees of a company judging whether to take that risk or not.   Obviously on this forum you can ask to borrow on a smaller scale from a person and its done fairly informally but I dont think Bitcoin or blockchain by itself is going to replace banks entirely or even greatly.

It shouldnt be possible for Futures to be a negative in this way, they are providing liquidity if anything.   They cannot short Bitcoin without at some point also buying that same Bitcoin, a short is a future buyer and often at the lows which gives it a positive influence in the lowest point.
    Shorts in a fractional system is harder to pin down, especially where there is an infinite production of each unit of account but we know the formula for Bitcoin is set and defined to certain amounts.  If anything BTC will reduce its block reward in the next 12 months so its certain to reduce not expand or become easier or unequally available to large dealers such as CME.     I dont especially fear them only that as professional traders, they open up the field to greater competition and some might not appreciate having to deal with a wider market in that way.

A short term buy might not be that unreasonable on the basis we have failed to break down any further:



With the open for Monday and going into the next six hours, if we dont see a significant progression from last week then we could see some reversal that means price rises upwards as further selling becomes frustrated.   This is only the short term perspective but its often the case that the waves can move differently to the tides or momentum across various time periods all of which take greater time to shift their weight.

   The blue line here is the 8 day average which seems to be sticking to the price, while it is above we are still negative it has not moved especially and I think a break attempt can occur and a move up be triggered.

I recognize some in a religious way forbid gambling by their followers and that might extend to a nation where the country is a religious state.   I wouldnt argue with those people and their desire to avoid any gambling business, it is their choice and belief to do so.
   However overall I dont look down upon any actual gambling myself, the reasoning I will give is from a finance perspective which is just that risk taking, unknown factors and variable judgement is a normal business decision that is a requirement in every economy.   The only bad gambling to me is where its deceptive and done as a trick then I'd agree it is unfair practice.
   Its possible for any person to lose large amounts in the risks of starting or running a business and by taking the wrong decisions, taking perhaps too much risk but hoping for profit.   We cannot avoid these things, the only good practise to always keep is only risk money you can afford to lose.   That would match the ban on borrowing money on some countries and that makes more sense to me, as that is good practise for a society generally.

I'm more bullish for every bear that comes out of hibernation, somehow I think their timing is off at least in the northern hemisphere    more the merrier, we can have a teddy bears picnic with all the negative expectations laid out.
   If you asked me to place a bet on 5000 or 10000 for which price is next met, I'd rather bet on the higher price then the low.    We can easily revisit recent highs, nothing dramatic or any great chasm has opened up between that price and todays price, by BTC standards its just moved a little.   I believe there is far more debris and resistance between here and 5000 then just going back up, so on balance of probability I think its more likely to go up.    Whether it sticks higher or not is another matter but I think a retest is quite likely to occur.

Governments are always a tax on society, they arent productive enterprise like companies and people have to be.   The main question is how justified is their expenditure, in the worst countries and economies we see governments which operate without any control or feedback from the population on their spending and in the end their existence becomes self beneficial to a ruling elite.
   The reason we dont want a inflationary method of funding government is because the idea is centralized and without control or resistance from a population, the idea might start off with 1% or some inflation idea in the low percentage but when the going gets tough the government supported by the military and armed police have no reason not to increase inflation as far as they require money.    Every other part of an economy must provide a service, utility or goods in exchange for their profits and in competition to others.   Inflation is especially deceptive method as it causes all prices to inflate and the use of that national is enforced not justified so even as a starting idea it will tend towards failure and ruin of a country.

The reason that occurs is the oil promotes an unequal economy and a country more easily dominated via its reserves.     The government of Venezuela has consistently seized assets from private companies and forced other actors out in favor of themselves.     
  Its not the USA that is the common point but a country reliant on one resource is unfortunately more vulnerable to military type regimes, we've seen this in Africa with diamonds and continual civil wars that last for generations because controlling that basic resource allowed the violent commands of a few to control the many.   USA is especially concerned about the fall of this country because it represents drug trafficking and also a possible local base for Russia to stage military attacks, the Cuba problem could be repeated and Venezuela could be a puppet regime quite easily.   Its not a one off instance, I dont think USA is the common point there more the commodity economy.

I will just state my experience from trading main markets which is the news is written after the market moves and they try to describe why its done that.    There is a tiny cutting edge of sellers who will have a direct feed on reuters brief breaking news releases and sure some might act in that way but most of us are not selling for this reason as we cannot justify sitting by a ticker machine watching even an expected decision.  
  Its always going to be a combination of factors, this current sell off was predictable as early as July when we peaked and lost the previous months trend up.   The trend where we gained was so aggressive we quickly went from 3k to 13k and it could not continue in any sensible way as markets never move in one direction perfectly simply unless they are broken, it would add up to free money.   We'll have an adjustment up again some time in future and this recently has been some adjustment down and its a good thing because BTC is more real when it does both, long term its positive Iam sure of it.     Thankfully BTC is not broken and its adjusted, eventually after some months we have a final wave of doubt and the worst prices are observed.   I would compare this to the tail end of a bull whip, the most rapid movement comes at the end but the wave first started a while back.  
  News doesn't really describe market moves, some stories grow and there is an iterative effect perhaps but there is no one story imo.

If the stable coin is relying on Dollar for its stability then its not going to work out long term, stablecoin is fine to hedge short term and to avoid exit costs but its not really a solution to just hold.    People are already exposed to dollar or their own national currency, they dont need more of that especially if inflation is the worry.
The 3rd world countries should really invest in their own particular commodity and only commit to one or two years of agreed pricing when doing deals.   Its a mistake to make any commitment to debt rather then the raw commodity, the problem being the countries no doubt dislike the irregular prices many commodities suffer from.     Its the job of their own national economy to account for the variance in commodity worth and to benefit when price peaks and be strong enough to survive the drop in prices.   Venezuela is demonstration of the terrible fallout of relying on a high oil price but it applies to every commodity dominated economy, they have to build stability and savings not debt or promises from the west that are external to their economy and can become a liability
  The problem is its not a fair relationship, the world is dollar centered and its hard for countries to operate independently of that.  I dont believe its impossible just requires discipline, I know Russia, China maybe other countries are trying to build reserves in gold but gold has no yield so really investment in productive industry is required also.

The oil price was doing very well, if we look back under the regime range annually for each ruler and compare oil price it should show Chavez had a far more favorable tailwind and the benefit of previous work and assets built up.
   This country has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, potentially its richer then Saudi Arabia, we have to examine the details of why their fortunes differ so greatly and part of it is the oil type extractable and how it relates to the oil price.   The Saudi family have a cost of extraction and sale even below $50 and no great effort is required beyond local tensions, Venezuela has heavy sour crude with sulphur that requires refinement before sale.
   Venezuela  cannot afford to nationalize their industry when sophistication and efficiency are required to receive a profit, if they become poor it is by they own lack of understanding on this.

Yes exactly why I would be perfectly happy with 10k and so should everyone, be careful in not being grateful for just staying where we are and when people get silly over ambitious I see it as some weakness like a pot that over boils, it means lower can happen.     This current pull back fits my own estimation of some decline before the halvening next year, it wasnt ever that we would just keep rising for all that time because it would have been an incredible sequence.   Its kinda like expecting to flip a coin and get heads every time and a dozen times later it becomes less probable comparatively.
   Sell the news is a very strong recognizable dynamic, worth writing down no matter how simple it seems its practically carved into every market that involves people and speculation.   Markets are quite ironic, I dont count as very negative right now maybe if it pushes further.    I'm fine with a steady market, so long as we get progress on multiple fronts its still a positive year to year.

 I dont expect it until I see it in the price, it takes time probably.   Also I always consider the wider market and the expansion or contraction of main markets has a fairly large influence, weak dollar standards, low rates in Japan, Europe, USA and many countries has been a great benefactor for BTC progress imo.

I dont think its a negative more a sign of the times, eventually I expect far greater usage of both gold and other commodity agreements.    The trend over the majority of my lifetime has been towards holdings of debt, we have a crescendo and then a silence much like the drama of an opera we will have to start again with proper value attributed to various alternatives.   Venezuela is discovering this today because they are banned from Dollar but in any case the world will move away from its peak usage of just one nations currency in this way.

Dollars are heavily held as cash by quite large criminal enterprise as its liquidity allows easy disposal but Bitcoin is always compared to gold and on at least this dynamic its probably a good fit.    This is not really a negative on Bitcoin itself, its a free currency available for use by anyone.   The first use of BTC in Venezuela was by its citizens as protection against its government and their capture and destruction of their national currency, for similar reasons Bitcoin can count itself popular in China and owes some of its popularity for helping people all over the world recapture some remnants of capitalism in their own finances.
    I mention gold as it was and is used in Venezuela as freely exchangeable, I believe the government is promoting gold mining within its borders and that makes alot more sense for them then the poor attempts to create a crypto currency.   They had no understanding of free enterprise but commoditys can be utilized even with a rough understanding, sadly all the oil they have requires more attention and expertise to refine properly.

There isnt any coin stronger then Bitcoin and a simple comparison of cost to attack every blockchain places BTC as the most costly for those that wish to steal or defraud.   This I think quite strongly relates to the cost and worth of the blockchain as it allows greater amounts to be trusted to that blockchain.
   Its been quite obvious with some of the smaller blockchains especially as their popularity may not always be regular and reliable is that they are vulnerable and unfortunately subject to breaches of confidence from attacks performed.   Its a relevant consideration for which blockchain is most likely to succeed, I always thought Proof of stake should come forward at some point but so far I've been wrong in this belief.   On efficiency, cost and involvement of its population it could do very well and in theory a free market will always promote efficiency