I think that Trump has hit the rock bottom and he will slowly recover in the next 2-3 months. Today I noticed a piece of news, which is very encouraging for Trump: Nonfarm payrolls soared by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% as the U.S. continued its reopening from the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday. This is just tectonic/monumental level news for Trump. So many jobs created in such a short period of time, would be a huge boost for him. perspective is everything:  the numbers got a nice bump from businesses reopening across the country, but i don't see why that would sustain month after month. all the optimism about unemployment is gonna disappear with a single bad month's data, as everyone realizes jobs can't be created nearly as fast as they were lost. there was also a bump in retail demand since people were cooped up in their houses for months and were eager to go out and spend money. i view that effect as temporary. i also think the trump administration is actively pushing the bureau of labor and statistics to under report job losses. several million people have inexplicably been removed from the total labor force (significantly lowering the unemployment rate) and they are also counting millions of furloughed people as employed. the only explanation for that is political. trump may have hit bottom but IMO this reprieve will be short-lived. i think his odds still have a ways to drop in the coming weeks. no big change. trump's odds had just declined 1% or so and biden's hadn't budged, so i was trying to figure out why. |
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Due to some uncertainty surrounding the continuation of our Poker provider’s offering we have decided to look for another product that can bring you an improved gameplay and more enjoyable experience. Until that time we will no longer support the existing poker tables we have on site. ah, that explains things! i'm really hopeful this means they're actively looking to license a different poker software, or maybe operate a skin on an existing poker network. i've always been open about my disdain for SB's poker provider, coinpoker, with its poorly designed interface. they can find much better IMO. fingers crossed that we hear some news about this in the near future...... |
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It's practically impossible to survive at the highest ranks, particularly when multi-tabling if you don't have a HUD on your side.
platforms that prohibit and actively break HUDs (bovada/ignition come to mind) are interesting in this respect. their games have always been softer than the big sites---more recreational gamblers and less nits. so, that's something to consider too. the lower traffic can be mitigated by the more profitable games, and tbh it's just more fun playing on tables that aren't infested by nitty grinders. it's been a while since i had to reload anywhere, but next time i do i'm gonna give ignition a whirl again. recreational players on anonymous tables and no HUDs sounds like a nice change of pace. |
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Even if I never finished in a paid position for Steves poker, it was still a lot of fun. Congratulations to all those who made some money!
+1. i donked off every single one.  but i did make a nice cash in the "what bitcoin did" overlay tourney, so i've got zero complaints. sportsbet.io has been very kind to us. hopefully steve will have another nice surprise for us on the poker front before too long..... |
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it's possible, but pretty extreme yes. the bottom in december 2018/january 2019 was 29%. it's hard to imagine much lower than that. anything between 3.33-4 would be a really juicy place to get a bet in backing trump. i'm checking the odds a couple times a day now, since i don't think the opportunity will last long. betfair had him down to 33% a couple days ago but he has since bounced to 35%. ignoring trump, biden's chances have slightly fallen, probably because of the improving odds on kamala harris. it's being widely speculated now that she will be his VP running mate. since a brokered DNC is not really possible anymore, that would make her pretty much the only possible democratic nominee besides biden---if he succumbs to medical problems or something. |
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nice finish yesterday in poker with steve, @BitcoinGirl.Club. some info regarding Sunday's game - There will be two KO bounties- Knock me out for a 2.5k Chips Bounty! (Easy one considering how bad I am playing)!  - A mystery 2.5k Chips Bounty! (Will be picked randomly as soon as registration closes BUT only announced after the game has ended) Yeah, this is it - I am in a good mood, so let's do this!  thanks for spicing things up! we're all gunning for you now. I will be adding two "Independence Day Weekend Wild Cards" for Sundays tournament. So if any of you lurkers wants to join the next tournament for free, just post your SwC handle in this thread and I will send you the buy-in. There are only two prerequisites: 1) You didn't participate in any of the 17 tournaments yet, i.e. you are complete newbie to our series. 2) You are not a Newbie in this forum.
thanks, ty! i'm looking forward to sunday---it's already shaping up to be an interesting game. there is still one free seat left up for grabs everybody, just post your SwC handle in the thread! that's a 0.0014 BTC value, plus those extra bounties from @efialtis. grab it before it's gone.  |
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the important thing to remember is that AA in a multi-way pot---especially on a wet (draw-heavy) board---is not that strong of a hand. against 3 random hands preflop it's not far from a coin flip, and postflop in that situation it's much worse yet. still, often times people find it difficult to ever fold AA, even in that situation.
the worst thing you can do IMO is limp with AA and then refuse to fold postflop in a family pot. it's a recipe for disaster. the best strategy is usually to bet starting hand equity when you have it, not wait until your equity declines on the flop.
Against 3 random hands pre-flop, I don't think an AA is as weak as having only a coin flip winning probability. if you limp AA into a 4-way pot and play to showdown every time, you're gonna lose ~2 out of every 5 hands:  in fact, the odds are probably slightly worse considering the 4th active player (not on the blinds) probably has a better than random starting hand. not a 50-50 chance no, but like i said, not far from it. |
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playing it aggressively preflop is always advisable, so you don't end up in family pots. against 3 random hands, AA only wins at showdown ~60% of the time. when you isolate one player before the flop (with a raise) you have much better chances of winning. I agree. Unlikely close competitors should be eliminated before the flop happens. Don't give them the slightest chance to have a winning window. However, I am sometimes torn hard between trying to make money and trying to weed out the bad cards as early as possible. A perfect raise, not too high for those holding better cards to scare away instead of gambling on but too high for the ones holding a 2 and a 7 to pay just for the flop, is hard to estimate. very true, and it will differ at every table depending on player styles, so there is no such thing as a perfect raise. on tables with a high % of players seeing flops, it can be difficult to isolate one or even two players preflop. in those cases, it can be prudent to increase your initial raise and 3-bet amounts, to give the gamblers worse odds to call you. the important thing to remember is that AA in a multi-way pot---especially on a wet (draw-heavy) board---is not that strong of a hand. against 3 random hands preflop it's not far from a coin flip, and postflop in that situation it's much worse yet. still, often times people find it difficult to ever fold AA, even in that situation. the worst thing you can do IMO is limp with AA and then refuse to fold postflop in a family pot. it's a recipe for disaster. the best strategy is usually to bet starting hand equity when you have it, not wait until your equity declines on the flop. |
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Gentlemen!
Let's play poker with Steve.
Good luck everyone.
no luck for me today---i'm out almost immediately in 183rd. i donk shoved J8s preflop looking for a quick double up or bust. i ran into AQo and couldn't hit:  oh well, can't win every time you're a 60-40 dog! good luck everyone, and thanks for the shot steve! now that these weekly games are ending, everyone should come check out our weekly bitcointalk poker series, we play every sunday: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5258134.0 |
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If cryptocurrencies will come to place then there will be needed more information in order to open accounts that might make Paypal loose clients.
What additional information would I need to open an account? scan of your ID like driver's license or passport, selfie holding your ID, taxpayer ID#. none of these are required for a paypal account, but they are now standard on regulated bitcoin/fiat exchanges. Even if Paypal asks for additional information (imagine something related to BTC, an address, or whatever) the company cannot force people if they are not planning to use Bitcoin.
It's really not something that would cause Paypal to lose customers.
i don't see it affecting existing customers. paypal would just just impose additional KYC if you wanna trade bitcoin. |
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What you shared is a big figure, "$14.4 million a day" is a huge amount of money, we can just imagine also how much is the government are losing in a daily basis since that amount also has a tax due.
nevada was losing $2 million a day year over year in taxes during the lockdown. at 50% capacity, i assume they are still losing close to half that. local governments are expecting a 20-40% drop in tax revenue as well. people are at least visiting the city and gambling, but it's hard to be that optimistic about this situation. even at 50% capacity---where i'm sure the city and state are still struggling financially---the coronavirus is spreading faster in nevada than any other state in the counrtry: https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/06/29/coronavirus-nevada-covid-19-updates/3278534001/i can't help but think this situation is temporary and more restrictions/closures are coming. |
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Has anyone heard of Pokertime? It's a poker app I got recommended and you can use BTC/ETH/USDT to deposit to get chips which are denominated in CNY. Seems pretty legit and the tables are super dam soft. But wondering if anyone else heard of it??
stay away from pokertime. lots of people have accused them of no-paying, confiscating money, and banning for collusion based on zero evidence. they are a scam operation. Pokertime scam warningi dunno why people are drawn to dodgy sites like this. stick to reputable rooms like SwC Poker, or ACR if you need bigger traffic..... |
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how many clients did they lose actually due to the pandemic?
the reopening has gone much better than expected, with many more tourists and gamblers coming out than anticipated: https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/las-vegas-is-back-coronavirus/index.htmlbut right off the bat, they are losing at least 50% because vegas is limiting them to 50% capacity. i really don't know how profitable these operations are under those conditions. during the lockdown, the big casino companies were losing as much as $14.4 million a day.  |
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this is pretty damaging stuff: From pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials In hundreds of highly classified phone calls with foreign heads of state, President Donald Trump was so consistently unprepared for discussion of serious issues, so often outplayed in his conversations with powerful leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and so abusive to leaders of America's principal allies, that the calls helped convince some senior US officials -- including his former secretaries of state and defense, two national security advisers and his longest-serving chief of staff -- that the President himself posed a danger to the national security of the United States, according to White House and intelligence officials intimately familiar with the contents of the conversations. One person familiar with almost all the conversations with the leaders of Russia, Turkey, Canada, Australia and western Europe described the calls cumulatively as 'abominations' so grievous to US national security interests that if members of Congress heard from witnesses to the actual conversations or read the texts and contemporaneous notes, even many senior Republican members would no longer be able to retain confidence in the President. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/trump-phone-calls-national-security-concerns/index.html trump is still get slaughtered in the media, biden is exuding confidence, the coronavirus is worsening with economic fears looming. betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom? |
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How about this? They let people back into the stadiums by opening day, Thursday, Sept. 10th? That way they can have real crowd noises and don't have to do that artificial B.S. It's still well over 2 months away! Seriously don't understand how much longer this virus has to disrupt everything. Maybe just make the attendees sign waivers that they won't sue if they contract the virus at the stadium. the MLB is set to start its shortened season in a few weeks and isn't ruling out allowing fans in stadiums. it sounds like it will depend on local authorities. in turn, i guess that depends on where and whether coronavirus cases keep surging. we might see limited capacity in some stadiums and no fans in others. https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2020-06-27/major-league-baseball-is-not-totally-ruling-out-fans-for-2020This Nypost article mentioned what NBA broadcasts will be like to make the games more fun and entertaining for players and viewers. Organizers are thinking of getting fans to participate through an app. They will send out the noise and excitement they feel at home while watching their favorite game. There is also talk of doing a competition among fans. Taking advantage of their live emotions.
Maybe this strategy is implemented for other sporting events like the NFL.
i imagine it will be. it's something but certainly no replacement for live sports venues. |
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Since a pair of aces is the best hand you can get pre-flop it makes sense to play aggressively with them, however there are many merits on playing your hand slowly and trapping your opponent especially if he is the aggressive type. playing it aggressively preflop is always advisable, so you don't end up in family pots. against 3 random hands, AA only wins at showdown ~60% of the time. when you isolate one player before the flop (with a raise) you have much better chances of winning. Also it makes sense to mix up the way you play to keep your opponents out of balance and always guessing about your playing style, and if you can incorporate this to your playing style you will become a more effective poker player. in micro/low stakes, a generic tight-aggressive style still works pretty well. in mid-high stakes, i agree that you need to switch things up. |
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I am interested to see the reviews of real players who won and withdrew their winnings in btc
i've cashed out a few times---never had a problem, no KYC. but i'm also a small fry. the biggest cashout i've made there was for ~$300, so take that for what it's worth. POKER with STEVE Wednesday!
ONE LAST TIME!!
thanks steve. sorry to see this event is on its way out! i'll be there for the final game. You are on fire lately, I saw few of those accumulators you posted in last 2 weeks and now this. Good for you.
I am on the other end of scale at the moment. Loosing bets all around, even when it seems impossible.
same here! congrats, @efi. at least someone around here is making money! |
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Looking at the Pict,there are still some tables that is not occupied so i assume that there are a little demand In playing to real casino?
since they limit 6 pax per table yet there are still vacant seats and tables.
if this is true then People are still afraid going/playing in Casino live instead they choose online gaming. vegas is still limiting the casinos to 50% capacity. they aren't allowed to fill every table. some of the casinos are even self-imposing lower capacity limits than that. The plexiglass dividers at the tables between players are much more effective than those expensive masks and no dividers, that's why they(in casino) have chosen this option.
the bellagio is doing it but i think most of the casinos are requiring masks. i dunno if the dividers are more effective, but they are certainly more inviting. wearing a mask for hours at a time is horrible. the silver lining if you wear mask+sunglasses+hoodie though is that you certainly won't be giving away any tells. |
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that occurs to me as quite an exaggeration. the estimated losses in the enron collapse came to $74 billion---and that's in 2001 dollars, which were worth 45% more than today's dollars in terms of inflation. $4 billion is a drop in the bucket by comparison.
Apples and tomatoes. ~$74 billion was Enron's peak marketcap and it evaporated in the bankruptcy. Wirecard's peak marketcap was $28 billion if you want to compare to that, and it's around $0.15 billion at the moment. But I think it's highly misleading to treat share price pump as a loss. IIRC Enron's creditors got about half of their money back. fair enough. i was just basing that number on this: https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/us/enron-fast-facts/index.htmlIts 2001 bankruptcy filing was the largest in American history at the time. Estimated losses totaled $74 billion. a better metric would be what was actually recovered in the bankruptcy. with enron, creditors were supposed to get back 53% of $63.4 billion in assets = ~ $30 billion lost. smaller than $74 billion yes, but still much bigger than the 3.5 billion euro shortfall owed to creditors in this case---an order of magnitude bigger if we consider inflation. |
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@figmentofmyass. They might treat their customers similar to how online stock brokerages treat them in America, however. Anyone who does not reach the annual income required might not be qualified to use their service to purchase bitcoin.
that's doubtful IMO. robinhood crypto, coinbase, square---none of them have those restrictions. i assume paypal would follow one of those models. online stock brokers aren't restricted to accredited investors either. specific products and funds are. for example, if you wanna buy into one of grayscale's private GBTC placements you have to be an accredited investor, but retail investors can still access GBTC through their online broker or retirement account. |
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