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Given china's best efforts at killing btcs resulted in Btc still trading at $500 to $600, as of now, I'll let you make your own conclusions.
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My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.
You mean China exchange or China government ? Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business. Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation. The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system. If that is the case I don't understand why they haven't outlawed it entirely? Or do you think that is still to come? Given that Btc china sits in the shanghai free trading zone, it should be protected as if it was an exchange in HK or Macau. Therefore, it cannot be made illegal else the free trading zone concept is dead. However, the Chinese government is absolutely shutting down all RMB flows out of china via btcs by banning third party processors and bank to bank transfers. I suspect in future, Chinese people wanting btcs must purchase it via cash deposits in HK, Macau and maybe the shanghai free trading zone. Plus person to person local btcs of course. Eventually, an Argentina scenario should emerge. Btcs in china should trade higher than ROW. Just not right now as there is still some selling pressure. |
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Given that china is still trading at a discount, there could be some further selling pressure in china. However, given lower volumes, this indicates that some Btc holders are resigned to the fact they have been caught out and are now converting to long term holding.
Please add your insights.
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In pool playing parlance they call it being hustled.
In poker, if you don't know who the fish at the table is...
etc etc
Let's avoid making Btc price drops a personal matter. It's a market with a diverse range of views. |
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My gut is, China is f*cking with everyone and purposely driving the price down so that day-traders and speculators get out, so that they can turn around and scoop up BTC for ridiculous low amounts and then drive the price back up.
You mean China exchange or China government ? Chinese Govt + Banks + Big Business. Don't trust the Chinese. They aren't stupid. They are great at deception and manipulation. The volatility over the past few days is certainly uncomfortable but I can't see that this is a trust issue. This is the Chinese government shutting down a massive loophole in its financial system. |
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One question: How did China get back to $500?
I think at this point, anyone who didn't panic sell on BTC China has a nice opportunity to arbitrage. They are likely buying coins in China, with whatever RMB they have left on the site, and bringing it over to other exchanges. Also, others may be depositing BTC onto the exchange assuming that the price will tank. By having an RMB balance, you could buy coins later @ a very discounted rate. I had 14000rmb on btc china (wish I'd had more) - I bought some bitcoins. Why do I need to sell them suddenly? Bitcoins are a rare commodity now in China - Chinese people are excluded from a world wide phenomenon. My Bitcoins are worth more now in China than they are in the rest of the world. If anyone wants them then they will need to pay a premium (off exchange obviously) Yes, I can see Argentina scenario playing out in china. Btc will eventually trade at a premium compared to ROW. |
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One question: How did China get back to $500?
I'll answer your question with a question: Why did it ever get so low to begin with? So you answer a question that makes people think with one that's obvious to everyone? What's the point of that? It's not obvious to everyone, it's not obvious at all. Bitcoin will become more scarce within the country, it's still not outright banned, and it can still be used for remittances very easily. Who wants to sell it $200 cheaper than other exchanges? Idiots, that's who. This is a good point. People are starting to realise they don't have to necessarily convert to RMB. We should expect to see arb opportunities narrow. |
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No need to be rude about it. With all your negativity, people would surely feel even more negative. Seriously, I really think the hoarders are flushed out.
All the way down from $1000, it has appeared patently obvious to me that this sucker was going down. And this was before the China issue emerged as serious as it has turned out to be. Yet all the way down, I have had to tolerate fools telling me and everyone else sh1t like: $900 OMG CHEAP COINS BUY BUY BUY....
DONT COME CRYING TO ME WHEN U ARE BUYING BACK IN AT $1500!
$850 is time to buy, not to sell! This is nothing to do with China, this is to do with Fed taperin fears.
$800. Bitcoin has flushed out da weak hands, and will stabilise around here etc etc
$750. Hope ya all picked up em cheap coins and are ready for the ride up Indeed, I am wondering whether the level of 'optimism' in the face of common sense has influenced my buy-in decisions. Until yesterday, I was buying in between $400 - $500, but I thought better of it thinking it may not sink that low all at once, and changed this to $500 - $560. I sold at $490. I have to take responsibility for any decisions that I take, but I also understand the human mind, no matter what mind it is, is subconsciously open to the power of persuasion. This is why things kitsch fast food advertisements or tacky car adverts work. Now, we have a situation where China has made clear Bitcoin trading will be completely wound up within their borders by the end of Jan 2014. BTC China accounted for 44% of total Bitcoin trading. I would say the writing is on the fkn wall, and in light of the sheer remaining volume of yet more unfathomable 'optimism in the face of common sense', I see myself as carrying out a public duty, outright abusing people who are still trying to tell people, that Bitcoin going 2 da moon!and it might do.....one day....but right now, Bitcoin divin in2 da cesspit! I feel your pain brother but we don't have to be overly pessimistic about china because trading in china will probably still occur via Macau or HK. |
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I see three green candles so in my book it looks like an uptrend is coming, hope it pulls through. I want to shout this again "TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"  Yeah, it may bounce a little higher....for now, but it will be temporary. China is clearly winding up any open dealing of Bitcoins. BTC China was the last time I checked responsible for 44% of the entire Bitcoin trade volume. There are still lots of Bitcoins in China and these people need to cash out. Nothing could be more clear regarding Bitcoins near term future and could well be remembered as a near death experience. "TO DA FKN BASEMENT!!!!!!!!" I honestly can't see why Btc china cannot restart in HK or Macau? Anybody want to chime in with some inside info? |
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I think your post is way, way too premature. It takes the market time to digest big news like this. The same thing happened for other negative China press. That drop you saw a few hours ago were the lucky ones cashing out because they had easy access to their stash. There will likely be several waves of sell-offs over the next few days. I think this will make Bitcoin stronger in the long term, however. Just guessing here .. because that's all we can do .. $300-400 is a reasonable place to start buying heavy. Until the next wave of bad news  Efficient bitcoin markets seem to stabilising already. The speculators/hoarders may have been flushed out. oh STFU! Seriously. People around here are losing enough money already. No need to be rude about it. With all your negativity, people would surely feel even more negative. Seriously, I really think the hoarders are flushed out. |
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I think your post is way, way too premature. It takes the market time to digest big news like this. The same thing happened for other negative China press. That drop you saw a few hours ago were the lucky ones cashing out because they had easy access to their stash. There will likely be several waves of sell-offs over the next few days. I think this will make Bitcoin stronger in the long term, however. Just guessing here .. because that's all we can do .. $300-400 is a reasonable place to start buying heavy. Until the next wave of bad news Efficient bitcoin markets seem to be stabilising already. The speculators/hoarders may have been flushed out. |
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Following news of complete RMB to Btc ban in china, it looks like btcs are now stabilising around RMB 2,800.
IMHO, the spec/hoarders that made up 75% of Btc china market has mostly exited.
Please comment with your insights.
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This is FUD - seems a lot of topics appearing from 0 activity newbies trying hard to keep pushing down the price.
Exactly what I thought. People only do that if they are desperately in need to jump on the bitcoin train. If this was true, bitcoin would be dropping a whole lot more. :/ I was the one who came with this info on this forum. This info is not FUD. It's a fact of life. Yesterday many people blaimed me that I don't have any proof. Now, everybody is talking about that.  BTC China will be closed within 30 days. The chineses will be able to withdrawn funds during this time. I am not using Bitcoin at all. I don't even had a Bitcoin account so I don't care about rates Btc china in shanghai may close but Btc china in HK or Macau will be started. |
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If you cant deposit through banks, basically most speculators would retreat. This is not about 3rd party payments company, this is about banks. We may expect a bigger sell off later. And it means the gov is more serious than we think, this may kill the exchanges in china in the long run. It's just a hint for you guys to be prepared. If you made a profit by this message, then it's not in vain. This is the other warning thread I made before the last sell off: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=373212.0Tipping Address: 188vSXijbqQGzBRXNzJzvF1U9bgBPRPpiN I'm relaxed but I also don't have many btcs. However, I should point out that yeepay is still working. Also, if this continues Btc china will be forced to set up shop in HK and Macau. Therefore, goodbye shanghai "free economic zone". China will go back to the Stoneage in terms of financial reforms. And the RMB will never be an international currency due to banking restrictions. LOL do you really think it can ever be? I mean seriously? Please.... you guys hope something thats not possible and now you act disappointed? To be fair, the USD is also a pile of crap. |
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If you cant deposit through banks, basically most speculators would retreat. This is not about 3rd party payments company, this is about banks. We may expect a bigger sell off later. And it means the gov is more serious than we think, this may kill the exchanges in china in the long run. It's just a hint for you guys to be prepared. If you made a profit by this message, then it's not in vain. This is the other warning thread I made before the last sell off: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=373212.0Tipping Address: 188vSXijbqQGzBRXNzJzvF1U9bgBPRPpiN I'm relaxed but I also don't have many btcs. However, I should point out that yeepay is still working. Also, if this continues Btc china will be forced to set up shop in HK and Macau. Therefore, goodbye shanghai "free economic zone". China will go back to the Stoneage in terms of financial reforms. And the RMB will never be an international currency due to banking restrictions. No, yeepay channel has closed. Check it yourself That's news to me. So now Btc china will probably be forced to set up new ops in HK and Macau. Shanghai free economic zone is a pile of crap. There are no financial reforms and there is zero change. |
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If you cant deposit through banks, basically most speculators would retreat. This is not about 3rd party payments company, this is about banks. We may expect a bigger sell off later. And it means the gov is more serious than we think, this may kill the exchanges in china in the long run. It's just a hint for you guys to be prepared. If you made a profit by this message, then it's not in vain. This is the other warning thread I made before the last sell off: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=373212.0Tipping Address: 188vSXijbqQGzBRXNzJzvF1U9bgBPRPpiN I'm relaxed but I also don't have many btcs. However, I should point out that yeepay is still working. Also, if this continues Btc china will be forced to set up shop in HK and Macau. Therefore, goodbye shanghai "free economic zone". China will go back to the Stoneage in terms of financial reforms. And the RMB will never be an international currency due to banking restrictions. |
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Picking a bottom is dirty business. |
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It is not likely that Btc china will be banned because it is located in the shanghai special economic zone.
Even if china bans Btc china in shanghai, they will simply setup two new offices: one in Hong Kong and the other in Macau. Good luck banning btcs there.
Also, the fact that yeepay continues to function tells me that there is a loophole somewhere in the system that will allow RMB to be converted to btcs going forward.
If btc china is shutdown then prepare to see the shanghai economic zone wither away.
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If china bans Btc china, Btc price will stabilise at some lower level, which would be a strong buy for me. China will then become like Argentina where btcs trade at a premium.
Anyway, how can the RMB be a global currency if it cannot be freely transacted and converted to whatever people want? If btcs cannot be purchased with RMB, that implies that the RMB is flawed, not the other way around.
I don't see the USD, POUND, EURO, YEN or AUD doing this sort of thing. I see Thailand, Argentina and china moving in that direction because these countries have weak and controlled currencies.
Therefore, China must be weak because they are fearful.
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China seems to be cutting off btcs from its financial system for now. People will sell for awhile and maybe the selling pressure will go on for a few more days.
However, I don't expect the drop to be too great as most people appear to have used cash instead of credit to purchase btcs.
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