It's pretty simple guys. David Johnson talked about companies wanting to enter billions of entries. I am personally looking for Factom to CONSERVATIVELY have 1 billion entries per month within one year from now. Let's say 10 entries per EC so that means 100,000,000 EC's burnt per month just from companies Factom Inc is already talking to. At .001 EC/Factoid, that means 100,000 Factoids burnt per month. That means, within one year, I believe Factoids will be a deflationary digital currency.
I believe trying to value Factoids based upon the equations you guys are throwing around is very short sighted. It would be like trying to value Microsoft before they signed that first IBM contract to provide them the DOS operating system. Bill Gates had identified an ENORMOUS and HIGHLY LUCRATIVE niche that needed filled and he had put together the team necessary to execute on that vision.
How do I value Factom and how am I investing here? I am investing as if we're dealing with Microsoft, circa 1980.
Why would you assume anything other than one entry per EC, which is the current situation? I think Factom is a great idea but I am not really sure to be honest how anybody is making money here, or why the Factoid cryptocoins issued at ICO have any real value. Once M3 starts, the price of those Factoids created by inflation (878K per year) can be priced at whatever "price" is necessary to make them generate the required number of ECs at 0.001 cent per EC to support the annual data rate. This "price" would burn all annual Factoid coins produced by inflation, and result in a sustainable steady state. But....why do Factoids issued at ICO have any value at all in this steady-state scenario? ICO Factoids are not needed for burning to create ECs - that is taken care of by the inflationary Factoids. Thus ICO Factoids are functionally useless. There is no reason other than a psychological one to tie the price of ICO Factoids we hold today to inflationary Factoids that will be created tomorrow and burned to create the necessary number of ECs to run the Factom project. I don't disagree with the Microsoft 1980 analogy - but holders of ICO Factoids aren't holding shares of Microsoft, they are holding 5 inch DOS floppy disks that will never be sold. |
|
|
|
Snow: “The token supply can grow (if speculators drive up the price) until the price stabilizes. And the token supply can fall (if speculators drive the price down) until the price stabilizes. But in both cases, the stable price is when the value of the token matches the money real applications are spending to buy Entry Credits in order to put data into the protocol. That is because the 73K factoids generated each year naturally trends to the value of the factoids drained from the supply to write into the protocol. If people are spending 1 million dollars to put data into factom per year, then 73K factoids should be worth 1 million dollars.”
So ... it appears that the price of Factoids is directly related to the extent of their real-world use.
Once again, confusion over whether the inflation is 73K Factoids per year (as quoted here) or per month (as widely quoted elsewhere). Until somebody corrects me, I'm going to use an inflation rate of 73K Factoids per month = 876K Factoids per year. Sadly, this makes us all 12 times poorer than Paul would suggest once M3 kicks in. |
|
|
|
Ok its time for some maths - I know a few posters have tried to figure this out but here is my stab. Feel free to point out any mistakes or inaccuracies, lets be constructive and suss this out. EC's will always be one tenth of a cent I believe. So at the current market rate of 2.80 dollars you'll have 2800 EC's per factoid. Now, I believe we started with 8-9 million (lets say 8.5) but obviously its the inflation rate that begins after M3 thats all important, and if I'm right thats set to be 73,000 factoids per months or roughly 880000 per year according to Brian. Now just to keep the number of factoids stable, we would need to use 880000x2800=2.5 billion entry credits per year, or almost 7 million per day. I think its reasonable to say that if you're using more than this, the price has to increase in order to get more entry credits from your factoids. If you use less, then the price must fall.
Now obviously its very early days and speculation is rife, but MalReynolds was estimating a quarter of a million EC's per day. For just that one company. Its plausible but by no means guaranteed that we could have forty companies doing a similar thing, in which case we would have a higher price. Of course its also plausible that some other companies (and there are a few although none are quite as far ahead as factom) will find cheaper ways of anchoring proof of existence into daddy bitcoin's distributed unhackable truth machine.
Thoughts?
You are echoing my own private musings except the number of companies would be 27 not 40 if you think about it. And I still don't know if a quarter million a day is accurate for the main company we've got. Somebody was suggesting federated servers could mod the EC / Factoid exchange rate from a fixed 0.001 cent - is this true? Very bad for Factoid investors if true. Who knows what future data rates will be. Nobody - and it's the key to whether owning Factoids is the deal of a lifetime or only fools gold. There's enough data out there to make us crazy rich that NEEDS to be secured on a blockchain - for example, daily torrents of illegal HFT bids (google the book Flash Boys and the company Nanex). WILL it get secured? We'll see. |
|
|
|
Anybody got a link to a transcript / list of questions for the Tai Zen interview last night? Also, on the latest announcement of Intrinio putting 3000 Wall Street stock price listings on the Factom blockchain every 15 minutes - how many Entry Credits are they using for every 15 minute data dump? One EC per 15 minutes to store a list, or 3000 EC per 15 minutes to store each quote as an individual entry? Or something else? 15 minutes per data dump is 4*24 = 96 per day. Intrinio has been using 5000-6000 Entry Credits per day, or an average of around 50 EC every 15 minutes. From the looks of the chart they are currently the biggest daily Factom user. Will their EC use now be going up with the new announcement? Putting 3000 individual quotes up every 15 minutes would be over a quarter-million ECs per day (at a cost of under $300 per day). That would be a huge bump. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RUZLxxoAfT3C5jIJ144DLYdztYe_sqrKqbTlZuD05-s/htmlview?pli=1#gid=445871101 |
|
|
|
Hmm-idiot whale? You could think that he was pissed of he will need to wait too long ,following by latest Max "1 Year " road map on Crypto After Dar .But if he was an idiot -he wouldn't be a Whale to put such Walls lol-FAKE.
Just because you have money, doesn't automatically mean you are intelligent. Paris Hilton is 1 example. There are many people born into rich families that received money for doing absolutely nothing. An idiot whale is just as likely as anything else. Look at lottery winners for another example that win millions of dollars. Look at the statistics and how the vast majority of them are broke in a few years. As a teenager I went to a small private school on a scholarship, but there were plenty of spoiled rich kids there. One of my classmates inherited $16 million when his grandparents died as his share of the local Coca-Cola dealership. He blew it all over the course of his 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s on high living, bad deals, and an addiction to gambling. Today he is the manager of a local supermarket and lives in a home a lot smaller than the one I have. |
|
|
|
what's your plan to get in again?
you sold ~200btc lsk till 30k
I don't think we will see 30k again, maybe the ~40k range
I may have a slight detour on my way back into Lisk....  I'm pretty happy with that detour path I am following back to Lisk - here's how it's going as of August 23....  But make no mistake, I believe in Lisk for 2017 and consider myself a Lisker first and foremost. I'm still on testnet; you can be too! https://testnet-explorer.lisk.io/delegateMonitor |
|
|
|
I can't remember any other fake wall to last that long. Eventually they will have to sleep  It may or not be a fake wall, but it sure as hell is a big wall.  |
|
|
|
|
^^^ Huh ^^^. I think I will hodl.
|
|
|
|
@MalReynolds: It's more stupid manipulation. The walls are moving. First buy-side and price rises. Then sell-wall and dumping. Whales are not always smart. If he really would want to buy he would do it more subtle.
Well, if anybody wants to sell because they think Factoid price is going down, now is the time.... I'm hodling. Or, if the buy wall wants to invest, they can buy 128K Factom - one third of available for sale...  |
|
|
|
Going up...400 BTC added to buy walls in under 10 minutes...  |
|
|
|
Looks like an email has gone out to Factom, Inc. participating investors with some business updates
If biz investors get info via email before Factoid cryptocoin investors get the same info via blog / twitter - how is that not an insider trading violation that sends somebody to jail? Got a copy of the email? why do u think stock exchange laws fit on crypto exchanges its still unregulated wild wild west here for now laws just care for the crypto <-> fiat boarder pure crypto is unregulated OK, let me rephrase. Are Factom Inc. investors receiving information via email before Factoid cryptocoin investors receive the same info via blog / twitter? It sure looks like somebody knows something about FCT...or thinks they do.  |
|
|
|
Looks like an email has gone out to Factom, Inc. participating investors with some business updates
If biz investors get info via email before Factoid cryptocoin investors get the same info via blog / twitter - how is that not an insider trading violation that sends somebody to jail? Got a copy of the email? |
|
|
|
If you want to follow Factom more closely we recommend following us on: The above channels are were we are most active. Let us not forget this post. Nice. Case closed. I hadn't seen that ... I would say FAR from case closed.... The twitter feed is ridiculous: 2 (yes, 2) tweets and 7 (yes, 7) followers. You're looking at the wrong Twitter account. Look at this: https://twitter.com/factomOver 6k followers and 1.7k tweets  I'm looking at the twitter feed that the Factom group itself gave me a link to look at. Another example of poor public relations. |
|
|
|
If you want to follow Factom more closely we recommend following us on: The above channels are were we are most active. Let us not forget this post. Nice. Case closed. I hadn't seen that ... I would say FAR from case closed. The blog has had only 15 entries in all of 2016, and half of these were routine announcements of 100K entries, 500K entries, release of versions 0.3.5/6/7, and announcements of hackathon events sponsored by Factom. The blog entries and the Facebook entries are totally uncoordinated. The YouTube videos (such as they are) get only around 400 views. The twitter feed is ridiculous: 2 (yes, 2) tweets and 7 (yes, 7) followers. Factom is a huge organization ny Cryptocoin standards, listing 24 people on their team:
https://www.factom.com/team/Huh. They've even got somebody that is supposed to be doing "communications". In my opinion, Factom has the absolute worst public relations of any cryptocoin I've ever seen. |
|
|
|
|
I don't want the conversation to die. Very odd to me how there is very little interaction with the very large Factom staff here. Outsiders can only say so much without factual grist input for the mill to grind upon.
|
|
|
|
While there is competition to become a delegate for the main chain, there will be plenty of demand to run delegates for the sidechains.
Thank you for your answer; however it is earning Lisk I am interested in, and since it's almost impossible to become a delegate of the main Lisk blockchain, can you point me to a sidechain which will allow me to earn Lisk for securing it? . We currently do not have anywhere near 101 people running testnet nodes. https://testnet-explorer.lisk.io/delegateMonitorJust click on "Status" to do a sort and look at the block of red dots. You can start a testnet node tonight and turn one of those red dots into a green dot with your name beside it. You wanna become a Lisk Mainnet Active Delegate when forging rewards eventually get turned on? Do your testnet homework now. Go to lisk.chat, start hanging out at #testnet, and direct message joel that you want to run a testnet node. The people running testnet nodes now are the only Liskers who are going to have sufficient experience to run mainnet nodes soon. |
|
|
|
Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?
Yeah, I personally think it's mostly the other possibility—whales suppressing the price to accumulate cheaper coins.... This is my gut feeling too, and I am a lamprey. Psychologically, not easy right now. Thanks for an insightful post. |
|
|
|
Yes, but the number burnt Factoids does not seem to be that significant. How come?
The Factoid / Entry Credit system is currently sized to handle daily transaction levels that are roughly 100 (OK, 117.265 times by my calculation) times higher than the highest daily rate seen now. The Factom experience to date is like having an 18 wheeler truck gassed up and ready to go cross country, and using it instead like a minivan taking you down the block to the mall and back. That transcontinental road trip is coming, and when it does, the truck is ready. If Factom's marketing department can get the user rate over that X100 threshhold with new users before M3 comes out, then forget the truck analogy and strap into your acceleration couch. We're going for a rocket ride. |
|
|
|
Indeed, the FCT inflation is set at 73K per month or 876K per year.
Thanks for this! And great to see you joining the discussion. Interesting times ahead ...  In Brian's discussion, there's one part I don't understand. He says, "To pay for the server+engineering time, new factoids would be created at a rate of 20%/year of the token sale amount. 4379795.611338 factoids were sold, which corresponds to 875959.1222676 per year or 72996.5935223 per month." If 4.38M Factoids were sold (when?) then why are there 8.7M Factoids in circulation now? If the same production level of new coins (876K per year) is held, that implies an inflation rate of 10%. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
