Averaging in over time is fair enough but it requires a deep enough budget to maybe last 24 months even, depends on the asset but something like Gold has a time scale of about a decade in my estimation.   Bitcoin, crypto is oppisite to dollar to the global reserve system based on FIAT and its possible it also is a very long term requirement in holding though it appears to spike more often.  If we are talking about buying in this way then its that long term underlying trend that is being attempted to capture with a monthly buy, people do the same with stocks and index funds.

Charts will give better indications then news, how an article is written can change what might start off neutral into being bullish or bearish.    Also its hard to tell if people have already reacted to what you perceive as new to you, quite alot of the news I've noticed is written after not before the significant change in the market.    This is quite a common mistake but I think its closer to the truth to say news is historical more then predictive and journalists arent trying to make the news so I believe they would agree they record what happened.
  The exception to this idea is where a trend is repeating, if we have an iterative effect in play then the news is describing something ongoing.   If we had an article to describe weakness in FIAT then I'm interested as its not a one off by far.



The chart today was to meet old volume, most easily or recently observed on the price rise in the spring of this year but possibly also relevant previous years.   Of course we are under 200 day average but it did attempt to break up today, so 5k is still possible.   I would say 5k is going to be more of an over reaction in price but people might feel its forever at the time, if it happens

Crypto is going to be substantially better for the sale and exchange of digital items online I think, partly because once access is given there is no idea of a refund possible.    FIAT is better when people want to physically pass the note from one person to the other.    Bitcoin is especially useful where the central bank is unreliable and cannot stabilize the value of money over time where Bitcoin is a free market has the ability to stay away from political upset and fiscal overspending (inflation) because it is available for use in every country and a fixed supply with known schedule whereas the current climate for FIAT is anything at all can and will happen to pay the bills.

This is what happens when the government has a monopoly of operations and only sanctions some with an official allowance, anywhere else they would build more until capacity was met better.
   I dont personally want to have my elbow knocked while I'm trying to place my bet on the table but I guess it could have some benefits, certainly the company themselves must be raking it in for so many people in such a small amount of real estate required.   These casinos should really be spread out over the entire country but I guess the government finds it easier to tax, control and license who is allowed to operate such setups.   I have also read they very strict on capital controls for flow of currency to and from such a special region of China, like we're seeing with HK they have an iron fist in a velvet glove :[

That was my take also, I dont know for sure if the appreciation in BTC price since contest started has helped the viability of the contest prize vs takings but either way I think we can call this a big success and its done the job of be eyecatching and immediate 'sell' in terms of getting people involved.
   It might even help BTC overall because of the deposit thing, whats the downside to speculating on a small 0.05 BTC deposit, getting interest on that after deposit and receiving a chance of a dream supercar.    I like thats a thing, maybe next time we could go with the current meta and have like Tesla or 10x of them if they are becoming more affordable.   Sell the green side to it all, I forget which country it is I read about, maybe Norway that only allows parking for electric cars and free pass through towns and so on.   Its very biased but I can understand from the air quality point of view, I know London gives no congestion charge for zero emission vehicles (also 9 seater old Land Rovers btw).   Obviously the capital issue matters but the running costs of an electric car is potentially great vs the Lambo running cost for me I dont know if I could afford it though it'd be a nice dilemena to have for sure.

Jumped the gun slightly there, some delay is the practise on most gambling sites as they schedule all withdrawal requests together to save fees I imagine.

The ETF proposal will be rejected as others have been because it allows pension fund investment that they dont want involved with BTC and also sanctions a foreign market.  I dont think anything has changed for them until the ETF is quite restricted in potential users, they wont allow it like GLD for example.

8600 is the 200 day average at the moment so it is struggling some.  I think we have a small area its trying to break out of with small bearish and bullish trends.

Sounds like the power of a rumour vs news, there isnt enough to move the market from what its already speculating within the price and if they get exactly what they expected then likely we reverse from then on; a relief rally maybe.    I'd be surprised if they shut down the exchange for being fraudulent which is the correct magnitude of action for a shock, some minor rebuke is more like it.   I guess the market could be surprised so we'd get proper movement but another negative report wasnt enough.   Maybe we already fell because of that and now its rebounding.
  I was considering a short but honestly it doesnt seem likely to react in that way, friday tomorrow then weekend and I think its better to wait till Monday to speculate a negative.   I dont want to watch it especially till then and it seems like we can drift upwards even if its just to fall later and my observation is that the weekend is a perfect fit for that behaviour.

Sounds a bit like sending an email but then you want to rescind that email.   Most of the time this isnt exactly possible however in some cases it can be possible.    I like the idea of delayed send, schduled send and also the case where you can remove it if unread on the other side but I think that requires a specialist setup.    The point being for BTC it would have to be by arrangement and agreement between both parties and possibly this would be part of escrow type movement of capital.  
   I can see no reason why it should not be possible for a kind of safeguard to be built into payment systems where refund is feasible to some extent, but this would have to be part of a regular payment system.   The advantages to allowing this possibility is to raise confidence and resolution in disputes should they occur.  Its not exactly a basic function of the Bitcoin blockchain itself but for consumer type operations I think it should be a thing at least some company or association is aiming to feature for consumers on their payment or shopping platform (that is using Bitcoin).

I'm trying to decide if it will break the 200 DMA but so far its acting very closely just below that line.   This actually makes me think we will cross over and market is just accumulating orders and strength in order to do so.
  The best solution might be to look at 2 day and 8 day averages and some of the volume for an indication of the time if not the success of an attempt to cross this well watched 200 day average.

But over what time period is it a good time to buy.  I agree generally we could see above 10k again but will it hold above there and how long till it stays above 10k for months properly is the more interesting question.   I guess the quick answer is we reach over 10k when approaching halvening next year.
   I'm not sure we stay above 10k for 2020 and thereafter.   It might be we just reach under 10k at the peak of the next year and thats probably a more bearish scenario then many expect but its possible.   Or we could also pass 10k even before this year over and that I would rate as the most bullish scenario because I'm expecting more weakness before any recovery in time for halvening event and possibly some weakness after it as well.

Theres a natural conflict here between the best time to guess being the last moment because it gives the best data near term and the problem of being distracted, etc.  The best advice is always take the deadline as one day earlier then stated or 1 hour, etc.    The timezones makes matters more confusing so really going on a day early was the best approach.  I just couldn't decide but Im the type to procrastinate.
  I was just waiting elsewhere for a deadline, they said midnight 10th October release.   Turns out they were going on Samoa time which is 22 hours past when Sydney first sees that same midnight   Its like 4am Thurs there now and Friday in Australia.

I wanted to characterise my guess as staying within range, its a big range but my previous guess in July was a breakdown so seriously alot more bearish.    I saw us failing support in that case as speculators enter a 'shock' reaction to leaving the uptrend.  Thats natural, some are going to hop off the hay cart when it hits a bumpy road and we have so much speculation in BTC that the impact of some leaving has alot of influence near to medium term.   So I'd say its doing as expected and my guess this time also was not positive but I didnt think it was reasonable to again predict a breakdown out of range, its just we do have a big possible range of prices now from perhaps 6k to 10k is how I see it.    It might have been reasonable to predict a breakout upwards from that range but my guess is we dont move substantially before year end.


Support lines and areas of major volume are like magnetized is how I view it.   You know how the magnet can attract but also repel depending on the polarity, I think this happens is because if everyone aims for 10,000 then there is many orders around this area.   If the price has run upto 10k then alot of these orders are sell orders from the speculators who want their money back and maybe to repay leverage they employed.   Hence this popular pricing becomes ironic, we are both attracted towards then repel from common or high volume areas.    This is more a shorter term effect imo.

Just going over the procedure to add PLAY to the Coinomi wallet.

Here the link to the instuctions shown above :  https://coinomi.freshdesk.com/support/solutions/articles/29000009779-how-to-manually-add-an-erc20-token-

Here the Contract address and other details required to manually add the token : https://etherscan.io/token/0xe477292f1b3268687a29376116b0ed27a9c76170

Not sure if anyone else has added PLAY before to this particular wallet but I think it must be done manually every time as its not on the short list but they do ask for any dev team to contact them for verification so they might add it to the list if that was done I think.

Near term we are bullish as price battles 200 day moving average.   I think we are clear for a run upto 10,000 but I believe we get profit taking at that point and the true measure of BTC strength then comes into play.



On a wider picture price today rose well but now have a double hurdle to pass with also previous volume in this area, both this year in spring and previous years going back to 2017.   If we can confirm above this point on a 4hr bar then I think progress is clear to stage a proper rally but overall for this season I have the determination to stay quite bearish.   Whereas from Feb onwards the correct stance was to recognize a series of rising low prices was bullish.

The obvious point is dont store large personal amounts of BTC on a casino over a long time.  I've done the opposite and accidentally left a small amount for like almost half a decade and didnt mind that mistake because it went up in value but the initial value wasnt anything much so it didnt matter.   I dont advise doing the opposite and hoping everything works out, its a needless risk just deposit what you intend to use in the next week is a fair take and not too much hassle to do.

  As for the scenario do I take more risk while in a bear market, I think I do because its there to be used.   I would guess more volatility in a bear market, people want to use not store the basic BTC so much and that'd include putting it through some betting tables.

The problem with this contrast is right now the majority of FIAT in the world is horribly compromised and sabotaged by politics and its control of capitalism.   We do not have proper standards in operation and various limitations on politics and fiscal spending have been disregarded, overridden and discarded.
   It doesnt have to be this way, FIAT can represent a better standard but in this moment we are seeing the tail end of that story that began hundreds of years ago.   Its developed and deteriorated until we live to see it completely fail and die I think in many cases.    I do think the world will drastically change within my life time.

All of that is the story about FIAT, crypto in some ways is boosted in its prospects by a dire need for replacement but I dont believe its a 1 horse race and we will see many alternatives in operation and become viable in future and some will even be FIAT but in that new era bound to some proper governance.   Obviously we speculate not many will trust FIAT standards by that time and will favor crypto but I imagine a whole spectrum develops from this situation now.

Theres superstition and theres good practise and confident gameplay, they all could be related and have some founding to them.   Confidence counts for alot in life so I dont discount anyone who follows whats given them good luck in the past, some of what people 'know' is subconscious.
  Voodoo from what I know of it can only work on people, so vs computers and everything being online I dont see how it can work but then I dont exactly know the details you refer to specifically.   I'd never write off anything a person has belief in but this might be stretching the scope of the feasible unless somehow it puts the player in good spirits then it cant be any worse then drinking and smoking while gambling which is what most of the western world does.

I'll have to double check with my local Einstein but I think 0.00002734 equates on a weekly draw to a win every 36,576 weeks.    So you really need to be raising your ticket game if you want to win once in a lifetime because thats 703 years.   You can win if you have reasonable odds otherwise you are wishing on a star basically.
   If 70 tickets can be bought with 70 satoshi which has never been alot of value especially then its not really something to complain about.  Lottery generally has super long odds but its extremely simple to enter, play and takes no time and thats the advantage.   If you want the best odds, dedicate every evening to training to be the best Poker player in the world or something like that I guess

I wasnt able to decide anyway, $6613 would be my guess based on previous trend but we've gotten no real direction from recent action as the dust is still settling from the last fall.



Blue line is rough year average and yellow just short of 4 years moving average.   This is a higher guess then my last attempt so clearly I'm more swayed towards optimism this time    Really I want negativity flushed out, when that comes and it breaks back up I dont know.
   Nictrades did a bigger picture look recently I think but I need to watch it again, link to their channel for any interested - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiE6CqH1RtU

The speculative market is this group of people trying to outguess each other but if Bitcoin was just that it would have been over a long time ago, plenty people just bail when things get tough and maybe thats smart for them but BTC just carries on because its more then this.   We do have a backbone to Bitcoin, a proper real market with actual supply and demand to it and buying the dip could also be based on more fundamental extrapolation of usage growth.
   The downside to that is its alot slower then the sharp spikes up and down, we have to let the market settle and thats where I think this market is right now, we're in a slower phase of revision and muted response as we adjust over time not just price.   Still a good thing long term.

The time for this question is when we are close to 10k because I think that is quite likely within the range of this question.

  Here we are trying to break upwards and passing a few short term averages:



The blue line is just a simple 2 day average and the yellow an 8 day which for consistency I just come back to refer to and check for strength.  I think we are due a gain if we can hold this position consistently, however the constant grey cloud over head is the presence of the 200 day at about $8500.
  I dont take moving averages as solid walls just an indicator, however it can act as some support and resistance in times where we waver like this.