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7241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Togo on: March 27, 2013, 05:40:08 AM
Great stats..

So correct me if i'm wrong, but if the bitcoin market cap hit 33 Trillion (which is all those countries M1 put together) then we could assume that every single fiat dollar has been exchanged/discarded from every country in the world and transferred into Bitcoin.   How does that work? Someone has to be left holding a very big bag of fiat? sucks to be them!

Based on Bitcoins eventual 21 Million, that would equal a price of $1.5Mil per bitcoin.

You mean roughly 1 satoshi per Dollar-Cent? It's as if Nakamoto had planned this in advance Wink
7242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parity watch -> Togo on: March 27, 2013, 05:38:33 AM
lol GROUP BUY!!
Aruba looks nice

come back in a year and buy a country YaY!! Grin

I don't think we can stop this nonsense, it's just too appealing to "buy an island".

The value of a country is much higher than the M1 money supply floating around in it.
7243  Economy / Goods / Re: [SALE]: Casascius 1 BTC Coin only BTC 1.26 incl. worldwide shipping on: March 26, 2013, 11:05:01 PM
I don't currently sell any cases. It collides a bit with my shipping mode (I ship as a letter, so it has to be quite flat). I might think about changing that if more people request it.


I understand. It would just have been a convenience thing for me so I would have been happy to pay a little more to save the hassle of chasing one down. Either way, I've been wanting one of these for a while. Wish I'd bought some when they were cheap to give away...

there will be 0.5 BTC coins soon. Still not cheap enough for just giving them away to random people.
7244  Other / Off-topic / Re: I measured the density of my silver/gold coins... on: March 26, 2013, 11:00:43 PM
Most likely the difference in calculations are caused by impurity or different density of water due to temperature conditions. The error of +/- 2% might be caused by other factors and measurement tolerances. The scale is not laboratory grade but for most purposes even the cheapest 8$ scales are extremely accurate compared to what was available in labs 15 years ago.
Um, scales in labs 15 years ago could measure the weight of fingerprints.

Yes.  And the evaporation rate of the water.
Those balances cost $5,000.
Probable source: https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1619194&postcount=30



I teach analytical chemistry.  Undergrad analytical labs have balances that read 0.000 1 g.  Well respected manufacturers include Mettler and Sartorius.  Troemmler also comes to mind, though I don't remember if they make balances, or only calibration weights.  I have my students do a very similar lab, and at that sensitivity level we can watch evaporation as it happens.  We need to know the barometric pressure, to account for the buoyancy of the objects in air.

The next level of sensitivity, 0.000 01 g, escalates the cost to about $25,000.

That's very interesting. Gives one a feel for how expensive such accuracy is and what factors have to be taken into account in cases where such accuracy is necessary.

I think for the "detect fake silver coin" application using the described method (and ignoring pressure, temperature, water purity, coin uncleanliness, etc) and just getting a scale that does 0.001 g instead of 0.01 gaccuracy will go a long enough ways to be good enough.

Probably makes more sense to measure other properties in addition to density before scaling accuracy of density measurement, no?

The conductivity ideas (both of them) sound good. Still looking for something simple, though. I have a voltmeter but no thermometer... well, maybe I could build one using an arduino and some semiconductor...
7245  Economy / Collectibles / Re: CASASCIUS PHYSICAL BITCOIN - In Stock Now! (pic) on: March 26, 2013, 10:51:53 PM


I measured the density of one of these today (a pure silver one without the gold plating). Came out to be 10.4 g/cm³ (measurement error +/- 0.5%). It's a bit less than a pure silver coin (10.49 g/cm³) because of the hologram and paper/empty space behind it.
7246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 10:46:44 PM
Yup, $9.5 mil bids (record) with 53k BTC in asks (relatively low).  Takeoff is approaching.

I may be mistaken but why do we have record bids all attempting to buy BTC lower than it's currently selling for ?

What are they waiting for ?

Is there some kind of strange procedure that people follow when purchasing ?

Something like this :

1 Get some fresh USD onto MtGox after a long verification process
2 Place an order which oviously won't be fulfulled as the price is rising beyond your ask price
3 Wait for the price of BTC to go up by several more dollars
4 Make your eventual purchase at your leisure with no urgency to 'buy low' whatsoever

It doesn't sound right to me

look for example at the 18 day exponential average in this chart:



I'm guessing people are waiting for a smack-down similar to that. They think the price is too high... until it gets higher. Then they think it was low before and why the f... didn't they buy and at some point decide to screw it and actually buy.

It's hard to believe bitcoin can just keep going up ("what goes up has to come down at some point")
7247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 10:33:01 PM
Wasn't there a really huge bid wall in the low 30s a while back? That huge wall at 51.03 reminds me of that:




  price   |      btc       |          usd
----------+----------------+-----------------------
 51.03000 | 28045.91420000 | 1431183.0016260000000


That's 1.4 million USD in (probably) one order Wink
7248  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 10:24:55 PM
Holy crap.

Bids are creeping towards 10mil USD (WHAT?!) while the only action on the ask side are the walls that go up and down.  The pressure here is immense.

I'm not sure this measure (bid sum) makes much sense. I just cancelled about $2500 (a lot for me) worth of old bids that never got filled (between $20 and $45). I don't even have to fiat to support these on mtGox, you can just have "invalid" bids. I'm sorry, this is probably common knowledge, but are invalid bids shown in the public order book?


No.

Thanks. This is correct, I confirmed it empirically.

I put 2 orders, 1 open, 1 invalid:


[  4] {f994caed-d6fd-4e42-9fe3-c5e97e2513eb} | bid    1.0      62.62626 - open
[ 11] {16706be4-5953-4ad3-98e8-78c90c3d1003} | bid    1.0      42.42424 - invalid


only the open one shows in the public orderbook (fulldepth)

# select * from fulldepth where price in (42.42424, 62.62626) and poll_id > 2700;
    id    | poll_id |  price   |   amount   |      stamp       | type
----------+---------+----------+------------+------------------+------
 28529939 |    2718 | 62.62626 | 1.00000000 | 1364336282855010 |    1


So now I agree, this is humongeously bullish. At least 9.5 million USD on mtGox (6 million above $50).
7249  Other / Off-topic / Re: I measured the density of my silver/gold coins... on: March 26, 2013, 10:14:54 PM
Next the conductivity tests!

thermal or electric conductivity?

Electrical. You probably could do it with thermal, though.

which of these 2 is harder to fake (by using impure silver or using core of different material(s)).

I'd love to have some fake silver coins. Anyone have any?
7250  Other / Off-topic / Re: Apalling IRS video made with $60,000 of US taxpayer money on: March 26, 2013, 10:11:01 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjYrursFkJQ

This video was made by the IRS, starring IRS employees, using $60,000 of taxpayer money. I was able to get through about 1 minute of it before I just had to turn it off. It is just awful on so many levels.



Dudes, we're being trolled. No way this is legit.
7251  Other / Off-topic / Re: Sending REALLY sensitive information on: March 26, 2013, 09:58:46 PM
This generating private/public keypairs is useless, IF YOU ARE NOT GIVING IT IN PERSON.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-in-the-middle_attack

if you're familiar with the voice of the person, I think it's pretty safe to transmit the public key via phone after having a conversation about the weather.

7252  Other / Off-topic / Re: I measured the density of my silver/gold coins... on: March 26, 2013, 09:33:44 PM
Next the conductivity tests!

thermal or electric conductivity?
7253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 09:27:36 PM
Holy crap.

Bids are creeping towards 10mil USD (WHAT?!) while the only action on the ask side are the walls that go up and down.  The pressure here is immense.

I'm not sure this measure (bid sum) makes much sense. I just cancelled about $2500 (a lot for me) worth of old bids that never got filled (between $20 and $45). I don't even have to fiat to support these on mtGox, you can just have "invalid" bids. I'm sorry, this is probably common knowledge, but are invalid bids shown in the public order book?
7254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 08:05:17 PM
The argument is flawed on too many levels to discuss here, but right off the bat, if the payment of taxes isn't voluntary, the rest of it doesn't fly.

Not saying this is the case with taxes, but sometimes there might be a case for "morally obligative disobedience" (just made that up, I'm not a native english speaker). Think about a german soldier in a concentration camp with the order to kill loads of jewish people. That action isn't voluntary either. So I doubt you can say in general: because something isn't voluntary, you have no responsibility for these actions.


7255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 07:42:48 PM
If this is compounded over the remainder of this calendar year, one bitcoin will not be worth more than $ 92,807 in Dec 31st.

Oh for fucks sake. That's it! I'm leaving... nothing moves in Bitcoin any more.

*goes look for other asset to swap his coins for*

Anyone want to sell some wall posts for bitcoin?





 Cheesy
Someone tell Casascius to do his next run on Pogs!
Pogcoin will be the next big thiing.

I guess that's how the future will think pogo (dance style) was invented: Someone dropped a tube of pogocoins in a club:



7256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 07:35:10 PM
If you voted, in reality you are an accomplice to this mess and only have yourself to blame if you get hurt.


Careful about pointing fingers. There's a valid argument that if you pay taxes, you are an accomplice to this mess.

Can you point me to that argument, because I never heard it. I see no moral problem whatsoever if someone does not pay taxes, only a practical problem. It is not really a choice because it means you'll end up in jail if you disobey or worse if you resist. That is the only reason I submit to the guns.


Wasn't the suggestion that there might be a moral problem if someone does pay his taxes?
7257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 07:32:32 PM
If this is compounded over the remainder of this calendar year, one bitcoin will not be worth more than $ 92,807 in Dec 31st.

Oh for fucks sake. That's it! I'm leaving... nothing moves in Bitcoin any more.

*goes look for other asset to swap his coins for*

Anyone want to sell some wall posts for bitcoin?

7258  Economy / Goods / Re: [SALE]: Casascius 1 BTC Coin only BTC 1.26 incl. worldwide shipping on: March 26, 2013, 07:27:25 PM
Don't know if you saw my PM but I am interested in buying one.

Just as an aside, if you don't sell the cases, it might be something you might consider as an up-sell.

saw it and PMed you (and another person who wants to order) an address.

I don't currently sell any cases. It collides a bit with my shipping mode (I ship as a letter, so it has to be quite flat). I might think about changing that if more people request it.
7259  Other / Off-topic / Re: I measured the density of my silver/gold coins... on: March 26, 2013, 07:06:18 PM
I'm curious to know how a Casascius silver coin would stack up, but the sticker and private key paper would probably throw things off by quite a bit.

I measured a densitiy of 10.40 g/cm³. Slightly less heavy than silver, as expected.
7260  Other / Off-topic / Re: I measured the density of my silver/gold coins... on: March 26, 2013, 07:04:46 PM
much better results using mintymarks method:


(click image above for google doc, these are single measurements of 7 individual coins)



As expected, the Casascius 10 BTC round has lower density than silver because of the sticker and space (filled with paper and maybe some air) behind it.

The scale zeroed in much quicker than with my first setup. I conclude that the higher weight of the water cointainer in my first setup (about 150g, scale max is 200g) as opposed to the weight of the frame used here (< 3g) really did add a lot of inaccuracy in the scale.

Repeated measurements had a variation of +/- 0.01g max (resulting already in a ~0.24% jump in resulting "error").

Thanks mintymarks, now I have a much better method at hand.
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