rpietila: PMed you...
Did not receive PM  Thank you all for taking care of me. I still have more bitcoins than most of you, and I feel fine. See my diary for details. |
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I think even 30% per week is unsustainable. That's why I shorted when it shot up about 20% per day. Long term I make money if I stick to this strategy.
Forgive me for my pathetic attempts to talk the price down. I am better at the opposite:
"Study the price behaviour for 7/2010-6/2011 if you want to have a million dollars."
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Donating to the forum does not equal evil.
LOL, I really want to have you in my conference!  |
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Short term false breakout, target: $138.
Hmmm...did you not quietly adjust the target.  LOL, still BTC1,500 short. Now I'm bailing out with ladder that increases 0.7% per hour. Either I get to buy back at a slight 15-99% loss, or bitcoin's price will rise faster than that. If the latter is the case, in June 8th, it will be at $300k (my target) and then I will just say f-k it, and invest my dollars in something else. For the last 7 days, I have been more busy giving bitcoins away than earning them. It is indeed helpful to understand the exponential function. Otherwise you end up trading based on emotions, and there are already enough dead bears. Why did you not use your own advice? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=174620.msg1927726#msg1927726Selling with a predetermined schedule, my experience is that in the end you will more or less get back at a cheaper price, though I am not sure after bears have blown so much wads. By "short" I do not mean a net short, I mean "I currently have BTCX less than the highest amount of BTC I have ever had." I do not intend that metric to go to BTC2000 or more in the near future. Even if it does, I am still net long, and I have a double problem of having invaluable BTCs and too much dollars that I don't know what to do with them. Gox won't let me withdraw more than $10k per day. The latter fact practically ensures that BTC can never go down, only up. |
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I got crushed today, $10,000s underwater. I don't think it is fun, and don't recommend shorting bitcoin.
Buy and hold.
Vladimir knows something you don't.
Why the fuck would you short bitcoin. There's been tons of buying pressure and obvious selling pressure trying to contain it (ask walls, not actually people wanting to sell). There's been a zillion bullish indicators, if you're shorting bitcoin right now you're blind. Y'know someone's got to sell, otherwise it is game over for the whole fiat economy, duh? |
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Short term false breakout, target: $138.
Hmmm...did you not quietly adjust the target. LOL, still BTC1,500 short. Now I'm bailing out with ladder that increases 0.7% per hour. Either I get to buy back at a slight 15-99% loss, or bitcoin's price will rise faster than that. If the latter is the case, in June 8th, it will be at $300k (my target) and then I will just say f-k it, and invest my dollars in something else. For the last 7 days, I have been more busy giving bitcoins away than earning them. It is indeed helpful to understand the exponential function. Otherwise you end up trading based on emotions, and there are already enough dead bears. |
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I got crushed today, $10,000s underwater. I don't think it is fun, and don't recommend shorting bitcoin.
Buy and hold.
Vladimir knows something you don't.
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There is now a short-term bear case going on. Selling at this dcb to $144-145 and buying back after one hour at anything between $130-$136 is an option.
Hmm.. If I cannot contain the rise of bitcoin.. I wonder who can  If indeed nobody can do it, it will soon become very valuable. |
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153!
Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man. Disclosure: Sold BTC772 at $153. I thought you were perma ultra bull? Why do you think you can earn on day trades? As far as your posting history goes, you have lost money on day trading before. I don't mean any disrespect, I know you are and have made a lot of money on BTC but have you eraned on this kind of short term speculation?? Doing it just for the lulz. |
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Short term false breakout, target: $138.
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153!
Short the shit out of this false breakout dudes like a boss! Dont be sheep, sell like a man. Disclosure: Sold BTC772 at $153. |
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"Too much money to care" is the likely explanation.
Srsly, a guy walked in to my office today and wanted to sell BTC50. He had been out, partying with guys and his fiat position was depleted. I had €5,000 in 50 euro notes and ordered my assistant to count them in front of the guy. Meanwhile I asked if he is serious to sell for 5% less than the exchange. He said ok, I ordered a glass of Valpolicella brought to him, and bought it at EUR 104 per.
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This is quite scary. Let's analyze the facts: - the interest in bitcoin is fading out after the crash, just check the google trend: https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q
- there's still a lot of money at Gox, a lot of fresh money was delayed because of their epic queue, but you can bet that from now on the flow of fresh money will be slower (just check the google trend)
I think this rally needs to be supported by REAL news that improve the fundamentals, otherwise it will be just a trap before a slow decline. IMHO, the best news would be a new company offering unlimited amounts of BTC for cash immediately - buying your first BTC is still slow and painful, and the first one changing that fact will really boost BTC. I see what you did there - sold 700 coins at 147, and getting itchy about the buyback point not coming yet. To bail out or not to bail out; that is the question. Hint: do not bail out, it will crash to the prev. resistance, now support at $130-$135, I am 75% we get there in 24 hours. Relax and let the swing play out. |
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The guy saying he can't find gold bullion being sold in Bangkok by the ounce might be true.
We sell gold here in the unit called a "baht" it is just less than 1/2 a troy oz.
also 99.9% of the gold sold here is jewellery or small gold objects.
i could find 10,000,000 million dollars worth of gold in bkk in 30 mins. that guy is just misleading.
You are right. Most of the analysts speak from that side of the mouth that gives them the best bonuses. Besides, buying physical silver in any form, scrap ok is the thing, if you can get it at spot. Buying gold - not so good right now. |
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There is now a short-term bear case going on. Selling at this dcb to $144-145 and buying back after one hour at anything between $130-$136 is an option. See, on topic |
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Good luck to whomever just bought my coins and I hope you've bought your wall-climbing shoes: 16K+ $2 ahead.
It's been a great little run but we need to pause for breath (and new money).
You are right, expect short term buying opportunity at $133ish.. I would say, technically we should flashcrash there in 10 minutes and double-comfirm the short term bottom in 1-2 hours. |
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Seems that this was a self-fulfilling prophecy: $0.115 never again, takers?
Reasoning:
I have charted the spot_price/ATH price over Jan-Mar, and I think the rally has already resumed. You can offer to bet with quite good odds that we will never cross 0.95*previous_ATH. And you win the bet with a surprisingly good probability. Chart it yourself, lol. I almost always bought at ATH during those months, since it was the least risky entry point.
The supply of people that think that we are in a bubble/denial/bear market/correction/consolidation/younameit is dwindling, and it's dwindling fast. Especially their economic share of the market is about to be crushed if they do not buy back soon.
Do you still see the people that sold out in February? Where are they? LOL, they made their $10k and are out for good. The next time they will hold bitcoins is when they receive their salary.
I had a morning meeting with Roni, explaining to him, that there is no resistance left anywhere in the price going up. No level above $0.15 saw any large volume action. So if you think: A) bitcoin is a bubble, sell to the strength. I would suggest selling with a predetermined schedule, such as 1% of the remaining holdings per month, or 10-25% every time it doubles. B) bitcoin is going to $300/mBTC, hold. C) what is bitcoin??, buy with all your funds that you can afford to lose. |
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$115 never again, takers?
Reasoning:
I have charted the spot_price/ATH price over Jan-Mar, and I think the rally has already resumed. You can offer to bet with quite good odds that we will never cross 0.95*previous_ATH. And you win the bet with a surprisingly good probability. Chart it yourself, lol. I almost always bought at ATH during those months, since it was the least risky entry point.
The supply of people that think that we are in a bubble/denial/bear market/correction/consolidation/younameit is dwindling, and it's dwindling fast. Especially their economic share of the market is about to be crushed if they do not buy back soon.
Do you still see the people that sold out in February? Where are they? LOL, they made their $10k and are out for good. The next time they will hold bitcoins is when they receive their salary.
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Rpietila, when do you think we will reach market cap parity with silver?  This begs the question: how much silver is there? Just investment silver? Paper silver? paper silver is not silver But silverware surely is. I would agree. Any physical that could possibly come to market? In 1980 there was a glut of physical in all forms coming to the market. But I think it was perhaps 1-2Boz nationally (U.S.), and it was not accompanied with international movements. So the large holders in India did not sell their silver to the U.S., afaik. We have to remember that the silver price rose by a factor of 35x (10-15x sustained), to effect this move. The silver price would have to rise by a factor of 10x from its current level, before the scrap sales would see a large increase. It would be accompanied with large investor interest, so the total silver flows would remain anemic any way. There is only 1-2B investable silver in the world, regardless of the price. |
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Rpietila, when do you think we will reach market cap parity with silver? Well I'm not Rpietila, though do a guess yourself: Market cap of silver is 590.5 billion USD (Google Calc: http://tinyurl.com/d3hy48y , numbers are based on: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment) And since at this moment we have Bitcoin market cap of 1.274 billion USD (bitcoincharts.com http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/, we need to increase the price almost 464x (590.5/1.274), this means if we want to match market cap of silver we need to have price of 1 Bitcoin at 55620 USD in near furture (I know more coins are mined though even twice the coins would not save us atm). I did some calculations and using "healthy" gain of 2.375 % per day (I did average of average and median gain from 2012-12-25 till today with extrapolation to the future, I removed the period of crazyness which in my opinion was from 2013-04-03 till 2013-04-18 when we experienced extreme heights and extreme lows) we will get to price 55620 USD per 1 BTC somewhere in the end of April 2020. Obviously this assumes that we do not experience some killer app (like the ATM) or killer news (seizure of assets in Switzerland) in meantime. You should also consider that Bitcoin might end in the oblivion  and thus its price will be zero. You are obviously not rpietila, as you don't understand exponential function. If it grows 2.375% per day, it will reach $56k in January 2014. Which I think is realistic. Another fail in your reasoning was this "Bitcoin end up in the oblivion" part, which just does not happen, since there is at least one supernode operating (me) regardless of what others do or think. qed. |
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