Ta muchly!

It certainly doesn't look like the $80s will be very memorable. Looks like we can cut through them like a hot knife through butter.

^ Quite right. Give it a few days then.

Sure, market sentiment between stocks and BTC speculation is analagous. However I think you have misread the fundamentals. This market is still at the nascent stage... it's just been bootstrapped. We're still at 1mBTC = $0.7, and users are flooding in. The ratio of speculation to overall transaction volume appears to be high but decreasing.

Most exciting are the new BTC-related business opportunities. Look at how a "Magic the Gathering" site has become the biggest and most trusted exchange. The ecosystem is just beginning to grow. The protocol has many new features that no-one is leveraging yet. As BTC rises and newcomers flood in, they will have a vested interest in adding to this ecosystem.

It's a positive feedback loop in the very early stages. The tulip analogy is utterly spurious (aside from the fact that tulips brought us modern stock exchanges, and Bitcoin will be equally revolutionary).

Tip #1: Zoom out the charts.

Tip #2: Pour a drink and get on with life.

I think the problem is you talk too big a game. I looked at some of your other posts... "small conglomerate startup"? Indeed.

I apologise for the ad-hominem, and pointing out your age -- but I felt I had to. Persona and ambition is all well and good... and you are numerate and literate, which is good. Unfortunately your post lacked substance.

Good luck for the future.

Yes -- it's been squeezed all weekend (I assume you noticed?)

^ Really?

Seems a bit stupid, as the BTCChina price just follows the GOX price anyway (albeit a bit higher). All that would do is decrease the liquidity on his exchange.

Point taken -- if the market is that jittery, then that would mean we were near a top anyway.

But when there are a bunch of new hands, probably directly inbound from Reddit trying to chase the train, I wouldn't underestimate the power of this speculation forum.

I agree, but all growth comes in fits and spurts; it's unreasonable to expect a straight line on a small scale. I think next week will test where bitcoin prices can go ($100+), but there will then be a pull-back. These pull-backs help people regain confidence. The spurts are just as important though, as they test the ceiling.

Definitely agree it is pointless to day-trade; the risks are too high. As a long-term investment though things still look solid.

Out of the goodness of his heart?

Or in order to precipitate a sell-off and shake down some weak hands?

He's shorted BTC; he's on the sidelines. The way this analysis was worded was intentionally to have the biggest beneficial impact to himself.

I think he's mis-called this one; Friday was the day to do that.

I'm going to change my earlier prediction, as Sunday night (US) is surprisingly positive.

I think Monday we will be fighting against $75 most of the day, with a breakthrough late in the evening, probably helped by a new large investor. After that, panic buying from people sitting on the sidelines will set in, and we will race through the $80s, with no walls until $90. Through Wednesday and Thursday, we'll be pushing through and eventually be up against a huge wall at $99. If there is a repeat of past patterns, then we will be through $100, briefly breaking through to around $105 before falling back to new support in the high $80s.

The hard work will then be done. With $100 no longer being a psychological barrier, anything could happen. It really depends on news and fundamentals as to whether the new paradigms will result in decreased stability, or a redoubling.

Given a weak weekend, I think this is boding very positively for the next week or two. We'll still be in the low $70s Monday evening US time, and Tues and Weds will be crackers. Once we're through $75, there are only minor step-ups to $100. Looks like $80-$90 will take all of 5 minutes of panic buying.

I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.

To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.

Not really.

I just see a lot of words by 24 year-olds extrapolating irrelevant past events to the current market. The way he wrote about MACD tries to make him sound like a market veteran. It's not only misleading (you've seen this "nine times out of ten"? What an illustrious career you must have had!); This is pseudo-technical mumbo-jumbo.

I hope that people reading this advice will do their own due diligence and realise what you two are trying to do here. The shakedown already happened this weekend. You're late to the party. As usual, another week comes and brings new liquidity and buying pressure with it.

The Cyprus news is important for Bitcoin, but it won't be this simplistic; No-one is going to drink the kool-aid that much. The effect will be a gradual acknowledgement of the lack of safety of traditional savings methods.

Furthermore people who have all their eggs in one basket (in a Cypriot bank), and are appalled by the EU move, are unlikely to move all their eggs into a speculative currency.

However, this is a good thing. Overall, the news is massive, and has a long, positive tail for Bitcoin. It will improve buying pressure for many months, if not years, and will speed adoption.

You say in your fundamental analysis that "the math doesn't add up". But you don't provide any math. Let me provide some for you:

Bitcoin speculation as a % of overall bitcoin usage has been decreasing since the end of last year. I see this as a very positive sign:




Furthermore you base your initial reasoning on looking for "fundamental changes". This is a big bang. A new market. Not a static one. Fundamentals don't have to improve in order for the market to follow -- they have to remain the same.

Anyway...
FACT: inbound money flow to Gox is huge. FACT: The user base is growing exponentially. FACT: Analysis of online sources shows that this trend is strengthening. This renders your following observations utterly irrelevant:

- "Our stochastics are also pointing towards the over-bought condition. It's all been BUY BUY BUY for weeks on end, and this tells the tale of the weakening money-flow." --- not applicable to a nascent market

- "no one has infinite money to keep pushing the price to infinity, so a correction is going to happen" --- completely irrelevant

Given this, the rest is just "blah blah blah".

If you want to turn a profit, do it. If you want to buy in lower, write this post 3 days ago. But this thread is pointless now.

TL;DR: I think your fundamental analysis is off, and your conclusions are wrong. Furthermore if this post is timed for manipulative impact, you're about 3 days too late.

Wait for 10k

Bouncing off $95. But $80 or $125 wouldn't surprise me either...

If $70 is the new $12 then "volatile as a firecracker" is the new "stable".