I often bet the max return on low odds, like 0.057 BTC @ 0.01% (maybe half a dozen times so far just today)
That's a good point. I don't notice those bets you make. When you win one, then I'll notice it. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) It is good that we're able to offer 'lottery' style bets, where you can bet a dollar's worth of coin to win over $60,000. Without the currently high level of investment that obviously wouldn't be possible.
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Even a 50% commission is completely fair. It's not like people are going to say "50%? I won't invest anymore". How it is right now is basically no-risk investment that you can pull out of at any time (unlike CDs where you have to wait), who is going to complain about that?
It's not no-risk. You must remember when investments took a hit from celeste winning 4 of 5 thousand very quickly. That can happen again. I have nightmares about it. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) And I think some people would definitely pull out if the commission was 50%. It would almost halve their return which would probably make the expected return from a Just-Dice investment lower than that from a CD or various other BTC investments currently available. So even the investors who did react emotionally (500% rate hike? screw that!) could well leave just because there would be better deals elsewhere. Not that that would necessarily be a bad thing. We have plenty of investment. It's been a long time since we had anywhere near a max bet placed.
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0.8
Until when does the auction run?
Pablo.
Until midnight, Sunday, UTC. That's 5pm Sunday Pacific, 8pm Sunday Eastern. How about if everyone copy/pastes this into their bid so it's obvious? [code] Timer removed. End time: 2013-09-16+00:00:00UTC
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There's a checkbox at the bottom of the 'account' tab now which you can check to have all your deposits auto-invested.
So now you can invest from the comfort of your bitcoin wallet.
The minimum investment amount is still 0.01 BTC. Deposits smaller than that will be credited to your balance, as before.
All deposits are subject to auto-investment once you check the box, including inputs.io deposits.
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The return was even higher because 10,000 coins divested so the profits were even better for those that stuck by Just-Dice. I doubt I will ever see that rate of return again.
10k coins were withdrawn, but 3k of that was gambling winnings. It still resulted in a 10k decrease in the bankroll, but only 7k of that was due to a divest event.
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What does 1% edge 3900 BTC mean? What's the difference between that line and just the 1% edge line. Is that the 4k Ceeste mishap?
In other words, we can expect to follow the 1% edge 3900 BTC line from here on out?
That's a minus sign: 1% minus 3900. We seem to be sticking to that line, and we are expected to do so. It keeps coming up on the site chat. Most people think that we should get back to the red 1% line, but I disagree. Once you're off the expected line by X BTC, you expect to stay off it by X BTC. In our case X=3900 BTC. That's not to say we won't have a whale come and lose 3900 BTC more than expected to us tonight and put us back on the red line. But it's just as likely he'll win 3900 BTC more than expected and take us even further below the red line. If anyone can give a convincing argument as to why that's true I'd appreciate it, because I'm never able to convince the chatters that it's the case. "But the law of law numbers says we'll get back to 1%". "Yes, we expect to get back arbitrarily close to 1%, but we also expect to stay 3900 BTC below it. (X-3900)/X tends to 1 as X tends to infinity". And on it goes...
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Your Kelly sample is fine and each casino owner will/should know this. his table maximum is 6.7 and this should tell us that he had or should have 250 BTC bankroll
That's OK, but what if 30 people all try to bet 6.7 BTC on red on the same roll? Maybe he limits the total bets per spin, not just bets per player, I don't know.
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There were probably not many people playing at that time. All this casino statistics works only on large samples.
There were plenty of people playing. The problem was that one of the players was playing for 100 times bigger stakes than the rest of them, and he got very lucky. The size of his relatively few bets made all the rest of the bets statistically insignificant. Edit: even now, if we get 5k BTC wagered in a day, we expect to profit by 50 BTC. But the site limit allows players to win over 500 BTC on a single bet. So a big player can come in and take (or donate) 10 days' worth of expected profits with a single click.
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I invested at the worst time possible, and I am still at a small loss.
It confuses me when I see people saying that still. Even if you invested at the peak before 'celeste' won 4k BTC from the site I would expect you to have been back in profit some time ago. Here's the chart of site profit over time: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4JlC5Xe.png&t=665&c=inD9YJ_56Coq-Q) The chart doesn't show how the bankroll size has changed over time. It's possible that you took a large share of the losses, and a smaller share of the subsequent recovery, but even allowing for that I would expect you to be back in profit by now. Did you reduce your investment significantly at or near the bottom? Because that would do it...
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What's with the "profit when your friends are also probably winning" line? That seems misleading.
You profit when they bet, win or lose, right?
And since you have the biggest house edge around, they're more likely to be losing than on any other dice site.
Maybe change it to "your friends will probably lose but who cares because we'll give you your cut"?
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Can someone explain to me how there is a bet exactly every second and also a lot of the bets are quite weird sizes.
I mean who bets 0.00004096
IS this bots at work or real people?
If you look at the 'bet id' column, you will see that the numbers go up by more than one each second. There are lots of bets per second, but the site only shows one per second unless there are 'interesting' bets happening. There's a threshold over which all bets are sent - so if someone bets 1 BTC ten times in a second, you'll see all ten of them. Otherwise it's just too bandwidth-heavy to stream all bets to all viewers. Lots of the bets are probably the work of bots, too. And 4096 is what you get if you double 1 twelve times.
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Introduced and popularized by just-dice.com, off-chain betting system is quite revolutionary, and letsdice.com follows and is trying to make it more user friendly (as a courtesy to JD).
PrimeDice and CoinRoll both had off-chain betting before Just-Dice was launched. And what on earth does this have to do with courtesy? Copying JD's and others' innovations while doubling the house edge doesn't seem very courteous to me.
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i think i broke my dick guys.
When I implemented betting via hotkeys I never anticipated that people would use their dicks to bet. Here's a chart of your "performance". It droops towards the end: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtlFPOIs.png&t=665&c=HiT3r3Ejxt2HKA)
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did any investor had a chance to withdraw his money?
do You want to say that if the casino owner would pay out the investors that it would be a good business for the owner?
As I understand it, lots of early investors were able to withdraw much more than they deposited, yes. I don't understand your second question. It's not good business to mess up the calculations and allow people to withdraw other people's coins, but that should be obvious. As to whether it's in his best interest now to try to make up the coins that may be lost, I guess that depends on a whole bunch of things. Like how much trouble it would cause not to pay them back, how likely he is to be caught, how much he owes, and how much he can expect to make from the site if it ever starts running properly again.
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Thanks for the stats.
Can I place a banner retargeting pixel on your website? How much BTC per month ?
I'm not sure what you're talking about. What is a retargeting pixel? I just read up on it. It sounds like you want to put a cookie in the browser of all Just-Dice users so that you can recognise them when they later visit other sites, and target them specifically. Is that right? If so, that's not something we offer.
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Thanks for the stats.
Can I place a banner retargeting pixel on your website? How much BTC per month ?
I'm not sure what you're talking about. What is a retargeting pixel?
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can you show me traffic stats ? unique visitors, page views etc..
A couple of days ago I put a load balancer in front of the site to help filter out some of the DDoS crap. As a result the IP logging shows the same address for every visitor - that of the load balancer. I'll fix that, but until then I don't have any idea of the unique IP addresses per day figure for the last few days. Page views doesn't mean much at Just-Dice - it's a single page with tabs. But here are the numbers of different IPs hitting the site per day: 1013 2013-08-03 1055 2013-08-04 1112 2013-08-05 1377 2013-08-06 1312 2013-08-07 1176 2013-08-08 1147 2013-08-09 1027 2013-08-10 1105 2013-08-11 1144 2013-08-12 1223 2013-08-13 1246 2013-08-14 1278 2013-08-15 1218 2013-08-16 1117 2013-08-17 1196 2013-08-18 1269 2013-08-19 1322 2013-08-20 1250 2013-08-21 1208 2013-08-22 1112 2013-08-23 1062 2013-08-24 1144 2013-08-25 1393 2013-08-26 1243 2013-08-27 1246 2013-08-28 1216 2013-08-29 1086 2013-08-30 959 2013-08-31 1128 2013-09-01 1127 2013-09-02 1209 2013-09-03 1259 2013-09-04 1285 2013-09-05 1186 2013-09-06 1340 2013-09-07 1067 2013-09-08 1028 2013-09-09 1 2013-09-10 1 2013-09-11 1 2013-09-12
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Email sent!
I will post the outcome in the forums!
Got a link?
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[You know what the owners mistake was (math wise)? and I am not sure that every 6th grader will work out the right figures. even if he made a mistake in his math like you are saying I think the investors would accept the new calculation to get less interest.
I think the error was failing to recalculate each investor's percentage of the bankroll when new investment came in. As a simple example. Suppose there were only 2 investors, you and me. We both put in 100 BTC. The bankroll is 200 BTC and we each own 50% of it. Then a new investor comes along and puts in another 100 BTC. We should now all own 33% of the bankroll, but I think the software was keeping the percentages at 50%. So you could withdraw 50% of the new bankroll, or 150 BTC, and so could I. That would leave the bankroll empty, and the new investor would be out of luck if he also tried to withdraw. I may be wrong. The site's owner hasn't released any information about why he no longer has the funds available that people trusted him with, so we can't be sure what really went on.
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I appreciate resolving the issue but is it ok posting my transaction I'd in a public forum?
- If you don't trust anyone then don't go gambling on dice sites. - The site is not fishing for free bitcents from new players, we make more than enough just being invested and letting the gamblers play their game. - If after two hours your start spreading FUD then dooglus has full right to post what he has to clear his name. - If you want privacy, don't blow up like that. Only 2 hours until blowing up? Not cool. - If you want to know why this happened learn about the cookie based account system on JD, if you then set a user name up or set up a secret link then the cookie no longer matters. - If you have to post on the forum, at least post in such a way that you want a issue resolved. Not in the accusing JD of stealing your bitcents way. Thats kinda low. That sure told him! You should see how mad his ranting made Deb last night. I won't copy her words here, but I've never seen such language from a lady before. Almost all Just-Dice customers have been civil and reasonable, with only a few exceptions. But this guy assuming the worst and shouting his mouth off when his $3 worth of coins went missing really bothered her.
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