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The exponential trend of USDBTC from the start of Bitcoin (3.1.2009-) is already quite established. I recalculate it monthly, and during the last 12 months the slope of the trendline has fluctuated only 2.9%! Expressed in doubling time, its trend has been between 96 days 8 hours and 99 days 0 hours for the whole year. According to SlipperySlope, the trend is the beginning part of a logistic function of bitcoin adaptation. The model leads to $1M/BTC in 2016-17.
We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.
If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.
April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.
We are now at $443 in the exponential trend. The definition of "trend" is that price stays as long time above it as it spends below it. The tops of April and November were >3x the trendprice. The lows in between were 30-50% below the trend.
If this holds, it is near certain to go below 500, more likely than not to cross 400, but unlikely to touch 300.
April crash had 3 capitulations in $60 range, and now we have just seen 1 so far, it is very likely that more follows.
I would agree with this, and welcome back R
