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7461  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 14, 2013, 11:49:24 AM
I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  Cheesy

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.

Look yourself in the mirror: http://buttcoin.org/the-cargo-cult-of-bitcoin

Why exactly you find it offensive that my followers have cashed out their original investment in double in just 2 months, are riding the freebies of 80% of their bitcoins, and are now prepared to buy some back if ever it hits $30-$50, or sell to the strength if ever we hit a bubble territory again?
7462  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox "Cooling Off" again. on: April 14, 2013, 11:45:35 AM
This bubble is massive.

Ah, please.
7463  Other / Off-topic / Re: Bitcoin 410 richest addresses, updated often. on: April 14, 2013, 11:43:20 AM
Thanks znort.  Minimum still coming down. Possibly some big holders did some of the recent selling.

As a relative big holder myself, I prefer not to show up on the list. I am sure the large early holders have net decreased their position during March-April, but for the most part, the minimum coming down just means that they break their paperwallets to much smaller ones, so as to retain better pseudonymity.

Whereas BTC10,000 was a chump change for many back in early 2011, now it is a formidable chunk of wealth that people are watching closely. Breaking it up to BTC500 increments with a mixing service would be my choice if I had the problem of having too large a paper wallet.
7464  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 14, 2013, 11:36:46 AM
I expect we'll be seeing record levels of fiat on the order book  in the next week.

It can easily go to $150 and over by Wednesday, but I still call for a trading range of $100-$120 for anything between 1-6 months. Every move above that should be regarded as a selling/shorting opportunity in the meantime, with bids in place in the low end of the trading range.

Btw. my public advice regarding bitcoin in my Finnish forums so far has been as follows:

- September-October 2012 (at ~$10): Buy with 1-5% of your net worth
- Feb 6-10, 2013 (at ~$20): Buy as much as you can afford to lose, even if you don't have the time to study the basics
- Apr 11, 2013 (at exactly $160): Sell 20%, to cash out double of your original investment.

LOL if I had even followed my own advice, I would be perhaps double as rich now  Cheesy

Oakpacific also congratulated me for being pretty much the only bull in this thread to turn bearish during the short stint over $200. Not that I sold much though, I am in it for the longest time, not for the fiat profits that the taxman is all too willing to share, in case I ever sell anything.
7465  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC Billionaire on: April 14, 2013, 11:20:20 AM
BTC is designed such that when "all" the people of the world use it, it will be valued in the same ballpark as existing currencies.

By which I mean, one satoshi will be about one U.S. cent, a microbitcoin will be renamed the basic unit, and anyone holding one bitcoin now, would be a millionaire (BTC1 = 1 million microbitcoins).

Therefore there will be billionaires also, and they will be very rich.
7466  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 14, 2013, 11:08:50 AM
From another thread. Quotes edited to show the values in millibitcoins (originally: BTC).

Then along came the people like mr rich suit in this thread, who bought up all the BTC they could find, not to use as a futuristic currency, but to hold as a commodity so it could hopefully make them money.

The real problem is that bitcoin was designed as a currency, but is this year being used by the vast majority of its holders as a high risk high return high volatility speculative commodity.

1) BTC will return to something close to its stable value last year. In this case mr rich suit (remember he said "I only bought a meaningful number of bitcoins this year", and all his high finance type buddies will end up either with losses, or have sold out to a greater fool and made their money.  Either way they'll move on to something less stable and more speculative until the next bubble and bitcoin will get a lot of liquidity back. Meanwhile bitcoin is back on the road to more widespread adoption as a currency.
2) liquidity will stay low, and millibitcoins will fluctuate from $0.1, to $0.5, to $0.05, then back to maybe $0.1 or $1. Many will make a fortune. An identical number will lose a fortune. all the big companies like Silk Road (I use the term company loosely there) and Wordpress  will switch over to litecoin or a different crypto currency, and bitcoin will just be a bunch of bytes, used for nothing but a bunch of people selling coins back and forth to eachother while hoping to come out on top (i.e satoshi dice with lower transaction fees)

Thank you for your concerns. I take the time to explain some of the motivations behind my actions, related to the quoted part of your post.

1. Yes, we bought up pretty much all we could find. The deciding moment was the resilience of Bitcoin community in the face of the fork last month. The issue was fixed with 10x more professionalism and determination than can be found in wall street. This gave me the confidence to go "all-in". I realize that every one of the current USD/BTC exchanges is unable to cope with the demand, but that will not affect the bitcoin protocol. I have no reason to panic if Mt.Gox closes down entirely. The people will find the way to buy bitcoins if they want them. The premier newspaper in Finland ran a 2-page article on Bitcoin today, without a single fundamental misunderstanding. I will roll-out a comprehensive newspaper ad campaign next week in all Finnish newspapers with 100k+ readership. I am selling bitcoins to people for a 10% fee. Bitcoin is so small at present, the value of the real estate in 1 kilometer radius from my house is more than an order of magnitude bigger. Give me 3 months to raise the awareness, so I can buy all the bitcoins anyone wants to sell for sub-$0.05 per mBTC, to sell them OTC for profit.

2. I don't believe the majority of bitcoins are in speculative hands. Speculators don't hold positions for long, and prefer to use leverage, options, etc. and not own the underlying. Even if there are many speculators out there in number, the number of physical bitcoins they hold at any given moment is negligible, by which I mean less than 500,000,000mBTC.

3. There is no way for bitcoin to return to any stable value less than $10/mBTC. What you don't seem to understand is the supply/demand dynamics. Ben Bernanke has said, "there is this technology called printing press". As he speaks the truth, and there actually is such a technology, everyone should be aware that he can cap dollar's appreciation at any time by just doling out $100,000 of physical or digital cash to every citizen of his country (note: currently USD is not created by printing press, rather than loaned out at interest, which is a diametric opposite of a printing press - but he nevertheless has the printing press also, and the means to use it).

With bitcoin, there is no printing press. Barring a flaw in the protocol, nobody can create bitcoins at will. This leaves bitcoin's fate (as regards to its purchasing power) to be decided in the open market between the current bitcoin holders and current fiat holders. A popular misunderstanding is that the price of something is somehow decided by popular vote. If 90% are bearish on bitcoin, its value should decrease, don't you think so? I am afraid you are wrong. The price is decided by the highest bidder, compared to the lowest seller. There are only so many bitcoins out there, and much more dollars (and real physical wealth, such as gold, silver, land, RE, shares of income-generating businesses, which can also be exchanged for bitcoins). Last week, Wikileaks divulged that there is $32 trillion parked in a certain tax haven. If 0.01% of this money wants to buy out all the bitcoins in existence, they would be valued at $0.29/mBTC. In reality, about 90% of bitcoins are not for sale at below that price, so basically a sudden influx of $3 billion to bitcoin, would raise its price far above $1.

In a free market, only the ones that trade, have a vote. If you don't have any bitcoins that you are willing to part with, you have pretty little business trying to force its price down. If you don't have fiat (or anything else valuable) that you are willing to part with, you have not much chance to raise the price of bitcoins. Currently only about 100,000 people in the world are influencing bitcoin's price in any way. When the rest join in, the only candidate they have in their ballot is "UP". Shorting bitcoins is not only hazardous due to the instability of the platforms, and stupid, because the price is in uptrend, it is also almost impossible, because the large buyers/holders of bitcoins will take delivery, abolishing the chance to naked short it, up to any meaningful degree.

4. I knew of Bitcoin when it was still a non-traded currency. I chose my entry point to be much later, when I could trade the fiat (that I am good at making in the meantime) for bitcoins with ease. Now I recently decided to go all-in, which means that I have invested everything that I can afford to lose. Believe me, I don't regret for a second if the technology blows up. I still have my emergency gold and silver, my other businesses, my family, and my Lord. In the event that nobody else is buying bitcoins, I will buy them all the way to the bottom, and we will continue to play poker with the 10+ billion millibitcoins with my friends, hosted by the sole functioning node in my engine room. I am having a serious fun with this, I am grateful to satoshi, early adopters, devteam and (even) the operators of Mt.Gox for allowing me this chance to influence history. I will not lose my weekly bottle of Riesling no matter what happens to the price. My aim is to develop a healthy bitcoin brokerage, and continue to run it until I move on to other things. At that time I will sell it to the big guys coming after me, for 10,000,000mBTC (+ the book value). The big boys will not buy anything for less than $500 million, so either we make it or break it.

5. I would be sorry to see if you sell out too early. May I suggest you to use the method I deviced for myself, when I still had the mindset of "selling to the strength". After the initial investment, you just wait for the price to double. As it doubles, you sell 25% (or whatever you are comfortable with, as long as it is less than 50%). If it doubles again, you sell 25% of the rest. Repetitio ad infinitum. This way the dollar value of your remaining bitcoins can only ever grow (provided that bitcoin goes up, of course). Also your living standard increases all the time. If it crashes, you still win.
7467  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think BTC has settled around $100? on: April 14, 2013, 10:57:20 AM
I bought in at $100 with some short term gains from $60 and will be holding for the long term. A problem with this would be if the bears are right about a slow downward slide, like after the last "bubble".

The bears have a vote only up to the number of bitcoins they are willing to sell on the way to $30. Do you honestly think any of the bears here are long any bitcoins??  Roll Eyes
7468  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: April 14, 2013, 10:54:41 AM

My favorite trading platform is that one cafe in my town that has wifi. It also has coffee, beer and at least two bitcoin enthusiasts.

Maybe I should open a cafe, accept bitcoin and morph it into a traditional trading floor. Back to the roots!


Please do. My favorite trading platform is my private-club-cum-office in my town. It also has coffee, white wine, all cutlery made of silver, and biweekly meetings of the Finnish bitcoin elite. I am running a daily volume that was only exceeded by Mt.Gox well into the 2011  Grin
7469  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Germans rule the world = Deutschland über alles! on: April 14, 2013, 10:48:00 AM
BTW wtf exactly is "Germany" and who exactly are "Americans of today"?  Your 19th century language confuses me.

I am sorry, we have the thing called "school", and it is compulsory for all. When I attended it, they taught us archaic British, and I have a hard time getting rid of it. Imagine, the first thing I remember is "How do you do." ROTFL. Never heard it ever in real life.
7470  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 14, 2013, 10:42:54 AM
Then along came the people like mr rich suit in this thread, who bought up all the BTC they could find, not to use as a futuristic currency, but to hold as a commodity so it could hopefully make them money.

The real problem is that bitcoin was designed as a currency, but is this year being used by the vast majority of its holders as a high risk high return high volatility speculative commodity.

1) BTC will return to something close to its stable value last year. In this case mr rich suit (remember he said "I only bought a meaningful number of bitcoins this year", and all his high finance type buddies will end up either with losses, or have sold out to a greater fool and made their money.  Either way they'll move on to something less stable and more speculative until the next bubble and bitcoin will get a lot of liquidity back. Meanwhile bitcoin is back on the road to more widespread adoption as a currency.
2) liquidity will stay low, and bitcoins will fluctuate from $100, to $500, to $50, then back to maybe $100 or $1000. Many will make a fortune. An identical number will lose a fortune. all the big companies like Silk Road (I use the term company loosely there) and Wordpress  will switch over to litecoin or a different crypto currency, and bitcoin will just be a bunch of bytes, used for nothing but a bunch of people selling coins back and forth to eachother while hoping to come out on top (i.e satoshi dice with lower transaction fees)

Thank you for your concerns. I take the time to explain some of the motivations behind my actions, related to the quoted part of your post.

1. Yes, we bought up pretty much all we could find. The deciding moment was the resilience of Bitcoin community in the face of the fork last month. The issue was fixed with 10x more professionalism and determination than can be found in wall street. This gave me the confidence to go "all-in". I realize that every one of the current USD/BTC exchanges is unable to cope with the demand, but that will not affect the bitcoin protocol. I have no reason to panic if Mt.Gox closes down entirely. The people will find the way to buy bitcoins if they want them. The premier newspaper in Finland ran a 2-page article on Bitcoin today, without a single fundamental misunderstanding. I will roll-out a comprehensive newspaper ad campaign next week in all Finnish newspapers with 100k+ readership. I am selling bitcoins to people for a 10% fee. Bitcoin is so small at present, the value of the real estate in 1 kilometer radius from my house is more than an order of magnitude bigger. Give me 3 months to raise the awareness, so I can buy all the bitcoins anyone wants to sell for sub-$50, to sell them OTC for profit.

2. I don't believe the majority of bitcoins are in speculative hands. Speculators don't hold positions for long, and prefer to use leverage, options, etc. and not own the underlying. Even if there are many speculators out there in number, the number of physical bitcoins they hold at any given moment is negligible, by which I mean less than BTC500,000.

3. There is no way for bitcoin to return to any stable value less than $10,000. What you don't seem to understand is the supply/demand dynamics. Ben Bernanke has said, "there is this technology called printing press". As he speaks the truth, and there actually is such a technology, everyone should be aware that he can cap dollar's appreciation at any time by just doling out $100,000 of physical or digital cash to every citizen of his country (note: currently USD is not created by printing press, rather than loaned out at interest, which is a diametric opposite of a printing press - but he nevertheless has the printing press also, and the means to use it).

With bitcoin, there is no printing press. Barring a flaw in the protocol, nobody can create bitcoins at will. This leaves bitcoin's fate (as regards to its purchasing power) to be decided in the open market between the current bitcoin holders and current fiat holders. A popular misunderstanding is that the price of something is somehow decided by popular vote. If 90% are bearish on bitcoin, its value should decrease, don't you think so? I am afraid you are wrong. The price is decided by the highest bidder, compared to the lowest seller. There are only so many bitcoins out there, and much more dollars (and real physical wealth, such as gold, silver, land, RE, shares of income-generating businesses, which can also be exchanged for bitcoins). Last week, Wikileaks divulged that there is $32 trillion parked in a certain tax haven. If 0.01% of this money wants to buy out all the bitcoins in existence, they would be valued at $290 per. In reality, about 90% of bitcoins are not for sale at below that price, so basically a sudden influx of $3 billion to bitcoin, would raise its price far above $1000.

In a free market, only the ones that trade, have a vote. If you don't have any bitcoins that you are willing to part with, you have pretty little business trying to force its price down. If you don't have fiat (or anything else valuable) that you are willing to part with, you have not much chance to raise the price of bitcoins. Currently only about 100,000 people in the world are influencing bitcoin's price in any way. When the rest join in, the only candidate they have in their ballot is "UP". Shorting bitcoins is not only hazardous due to the instability of the platforms, and stupid, because the price is in uptrend, it is also almost impossible, because the large buyers/holders of bitcoins will take delivery, abolishing the chance to naked short it, up to any meaningful degree.

4. I knew of Bitcoin when it was still a non-traded currency. I chose my entry point to be much later, when I could trade the fiat (that I am good at making in the meantime) for bitcoins with ease. Now I recently decided to go all-in, which means that I have invested everything that I can afford to lose. Believe me, I don't regret for a second if the technology blows up. I still have my emergency gold and silver, my other businesses, my family, and my Lord. In the event that nobody else is buying bitcoins, I will buy them all the way to the bottom, and we will continue to play poker with the 10+ million bitcoins with my friends, hosted by the sole functioning node in my engine room. I am having a serious fun with this, I am grateful to satoshi, early adopters, devteam and (even) the operators of Mt.Gox for allowing me this chance to influence history. I will not lose my weekly bottle of Riesling no matter what happens to the price. My aim is to develop a healthy bitcoin brokerage, and continue to run it until I move on to other things. At that time I will sell it to the big guys coming after me, for 10,000 bitcoins (+ the book value). The big boys will not buy anything for less than $500 million, so either we make it or break it.

5. I would be sorry to see if you sell out too early. May I suggest you to use the method I deviced for myself, when I still had the mindset of "selling to the strength". After the initial investment, you just wait for the price to double. As it doubles, you sell 25% (or whatever you are comfortable with, as long as it is less than 50%). If it doubles again, you sell 25% of the rest. Repetitio ad infinitum. This way the dollar value of your remaining bitcoins can only ever grow (provided that bitcoin goes up, of course). Also your living standard increases all the time. If it crashes, you still win.
7471  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 14, 2013, 12:53:02 AM
Well said, I like your friend's story, and that's why unfair early adopter advantage is a myth.

To give you some perspectives, there was a top calling thread on this subforum started in January, many people, maybe in hundreds, posted their guesses on the top, not even one in January had expected the price to go over $100, not even some fanatic permabulls.

By the way, how does the lobby of a 1960s Soviet hotel look like? I am curious.

That very friend of mine called the bitcoin bubble already last autumn. He said it will go to 0.300 and drop to 0.120. It felt preposterous back then as we were not even near the old ATH of 0.032. I adopted his thinking in January and publicized it here in the forum. From the hindsight he was quite correct while shepherding his sheep. All the exchanges peaked at around 0.266-0.318. The period of stability, if we will see it, will likely be very close to 0.120.

As for the visual image, you will have to wait until I get some technical help Smiley
7472  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think BTC has settled around $100? on: April 14, 2013, 12:43:25 AM
I think the bulls will just buy to keep it at or above $100. That's all we need, since the number of coins is limited, and most panickers already hold approximately 0 of them. Personally I am content with 3-6 months at $100-$120. I have no delusion that it will last that long, so I will buy more at every opportunity. I know the mindset of those that are coming after me.
7473  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 14, 2013, 12:39:53 AM
Surly they will go "all in" in the true Buttcoiner fashion, liquidate everything buy BTC and live from a diet of rice and beans for the next decade.  Cheesy

Yes, indeed, the way I am doing. So now, get a life of your own, please.

Please do I'll be laughing all the harder if you actually were somebody reasonably wealthy and blown it all up on a delusional dream.  Cheesy

What you don't seem to understand, is that we rich make more money than we need even without much working for it, so this in essence gives us freedom to do what we want, with the money we already have. Good night.


7474  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin trades the inequity of dynastic power for the inequity of early adoption on: April 14, 2013, 12:37:11 AM
So the point of my ramblings is...

1) Given that the exchanges can never operate on different chains. And
2) They can't allow invalidation of confirmed transactions to ever occur. So
3) If the exchanges decide that a particular chain is the only chain they'll all trade on. THEN
4) The mining pools MUST follow their direction. and
5) So MUST everyone else.

So how can "Accumulated Hashing" protect the chain, if the exchanges can throw it out willy nilly and everyone else must accept their decision?

QED.

What exactly is the problem then?

MTGox determining monetary policy, essentially.

There's one problem with that: The miners don't HAVE to use the big exchanges. They don't HAVE to exchange their coins at all, in fact.

I use Mt.Gox very little, and so should you, and everybody. Their engine is good for handling about 2 transactions per second, as is the bitcoin protocol. Buy/sell OTC rather. Friendly service and no risk of "hacks" and stuff.




7475  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 14, 2013, 12:33:39 AM
Surly they will go "all in" in the true Buttcoiner fashion, liquidate everything buy BTC and live from a diet of rice and beans for the next decade.  Cheesy

Yes, indeed, the way I am doing. So now, get a life of your own, please.
7476  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin trades the inequity of dynastic power for the inequity of early adoption on: April 14, 2013, 12:31:03 AM
If there was an improvement in the technology that eliminated the need for exchanges, would it be enough to eliminate the dictator from the algorithm?

Now you get it!

See, that's the problem I think I have a solution to! :-)
Better yet, it reenforces anonymity!

Physical silver market (coins, bars) works very well without a central exchange. Even now, all the products are sold outRoll Eyes



7477  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 14, 2013, 12:24:27 AM
Loaded has 200k and only a few posts, he has done that and nobody questions it. Do as you like, but if you want to be taken seriously as a big fish you need to provide cryptographically verifiable proof.

Winklevoss don't have a forum account, and I don't have a hotwallet LOL. The new wave has arrived Smiley

Do you represent them or not?
Again I ask you to provide proof of your wealth, since you are the one highballing in the forum and even posing with a suit.  
(Are you sure you don't sell insurances or something Cheesy)

That is an old suit, which I bought in 2008 in Dubai. Btw. the Burj-al-Arab was nice. Just for the lulz, I don't know if you appreciate my gesture but I have this address. I will PM you 10 minutes before I use it.

Probably you will die in waiting.. I have no intention to use it ever, as I am here to buy more coins, not to spend them, as I have all I need and my income is sufficient to cover all my possible future needs.



Sign a message. Something like "I am rpietila from bitcointalk my wallet address is 12345ASDF"

It's not that hard, easier to wait for some random address to get activity. Wink

Not that long ago I asked you for the instructions.

You've got to be kidding.  You can do that in bitcoin-qt and do not even have to be online with it.

Now you've got to be kidding. I only bought a meaningful number of bitcoins this year, am not a nerd, and you think I use bitcoin-qt??  Roll Eyes
7478  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin trades the inequity of dynastic power for the inequity of early adoption on: April 14, 2013, 12:22:48 AM
So the point of my ramblings is...

1) Given that the exchanges can never operate on different chains. And
2) They can't allow invalidation of confirmed transactions to ever occur. So
3) If the exchanges decide that a particular chain is the only chain they'll all trade on. THEN
4) The mining pools MUST follow their direction. and
5) So MUST everyone else.

So how can "Accumulated Hashing" protect the chain, if the exchanges can throw it out willy nilly and everyone else must accept their decision?

QED.

What exactly is the problem then?

So we are to believe you have hundreds of thousands of dollars tied up in Bitcoin but don't see the issue here?

No I don't have nothing "tied" to it. I own euros, silver, gold, stocks, and bitcoins. I am not indebted to anyone.

If any of these goes to zero, I don't lose my sleep. So the issue again was..?

7479  Economy / Speculation / Re: To who whined about early adopters that bought cheap coins: now coins are cheap on: April 14, 2013, 12:19:25 AM
Loaded has 200k and only a few posts, he has done that and nobody questions it. Do as you like, but if you want to be taken seriously as a big fish you need to provide cryptographically verifiable proof.

Winklevoss don't have a forum account, and I don't have a hotwallet LOL. The new wave has arrived Smiley

Do you represent them or not?
Again I ask you to provide proof of your wealth, since you are the one highballing in the forum and even posing with a suit.  
(Are you sure you don't sell insurances or something Cheesy)

That is an old suit, which I bought in 2008 in Dubai. Btw. the Burj-al-Arab was nice. Just for the lulz, I don't know if you appreciate my gesture but I have this address. I will PM you 10 minutes before I use it.

Probably you will die in waiting.. I have no intention to use it ever, as I am here to buy more coins, not to spend them, as I have all I need and my income is sufficient to cover all my possible future needs.



Sign a message. Something like "I am rpietila from bitcointalk my wallet address is 12345ASDF"

It's not that hard, easier to wait for some random address to get activity. Wink

Not that long ago I asked you for the instructions.
7480  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin trades the inequity of dynastic power for the inequity of early adoption on: April 14, 2013, 12:16:12 AM
So the point of my ramblings is...

1) Given that the exchanges can never operate on different chains. And
2) They can't allow invalidation of confirmed transactions to ever occur. So
3) If the exchanges decide that a particular chain is the only chain they'll all trade on. THEN
4) The mining pools MUST follow their direction. and
5) So MUST everyone else.

So how can "Accumulated Hashing" protect the chain, if the exchanges can throw it out willy nilly and everyone else must accept their decision?

QED.

What exactly is the problem then?
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