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7581  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Why do BTC ASIC miners have less improvements than other ASICS. on: December 22, 2018, 04:57:01 AM
 
  I mean the SHA256 ASICs in general develp slower and less efficiently than other algorithms.

 if we make a small compassion between SHA256 and X11 Asics made by Bitmain we get this.

X11

 D3 (Aug 2017) 19gh  1350w

 D5 (recently)     120Gh 1566w
----------------

SHA256

S9 (May 2016) 14th 1370w

S15(recently )28th 1595w

----------------

I know that these are measured in different units TH and GH but this is not my point.

the point is even though the D3 was released at longer period after the S9, the performance of the D5 is by factor of 6.3 while the S15 is has only a factor of 2 compared to the S9 (took power consumption out because they are almost exactly the same).


what is the possible technical explanation behind this? why did it take bitmain this long " assuming they release everything the moment the make it" to only have double the hashrate when they had the power of 6 d3s put in 1 D5.

I do not seem to grasp the technical part behind this , as Algorithm based ,we know the X11 is more complicated as it used 11 different hash functions and is based on SHA-3 which is supreme to the SHA-2 that SHA256 uses.

also in general, does this slow improvement indicate that we are getting closer and closer to the limit of transistor technology? are we close enough to fully utilize 7nm and then sit there for couple years without any major improvements in the ASIC mining industry?
7582  Other / Meta / Increase default font size on the Local Arabic board."please" on: December 22, 2018, 02:00:17 AM

 The default font size which is 10pt is very tiny and hard to read for Arabic letters. the default size should be 12pt.

* i know we can change the font size, but doing so in every post is a waste of time and effort for something that is very basic.

Thanks.
7583  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 1.6 billion in gold vs 1.6 billion in Bitcoins on: December 22, 2018, 01:23:16 AM
Wrong, there's no difference between a huge sum in gold or a huge sum in Bitcoin in terms of security, you need to protect both, because just like gold can be stolen physically, Bitcoin can be too - and no encryption will protect you if thieves will threaten you and your family with violence. Look up some stories about underground Bitcoin vaults that store some big wallets if you want to learn about how top-level Bitcoin security looks like.

you can have 1.6 billion worth of bitcoin without your wife knowing about it, but you buy 10 bars of gold and everyone and their cats knows about it.

a large part of security is anonymity, which Gold lacks.
7584  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: My "mini" mining farm on: December 22, 2018, 12:14:02 AM
You’ve posted about the hot and cold wall in my mining farm thread. I’m up to 38 miners now with another 10 en route. I was hitting the 80s on my miners with 25 machines last summer during 90 degree days. I’m sure I will need to build this same wall to avoid overheating in the summer with 50 machines. My upblast fan is rated to 30000cfm. I’m thinking if I build the wall halfway up (15 feet on a 30 foot ceiling) it should direct the hot air high enough where the fan should just suck everything out. What are your thoughts on that approach?

if i remember correctly you have quite a large space,  15 feet is more than enough, depending on the width you going with.

if you want to have a decent spacing like mine, then all you need is 11.5 feet of height, which is about 3.5 meters ( same as mine)

with this height you can have 5 rows and the space from the highest miner to the roof will be about 5 feet which is good enough.

here is the initial design
 


of course having a higher ceiling is better if you do not plan to exhaust air through the ceiling  , because if you do, then what matters more is the space from the mining room ceiling to the main room ceiling, if you planing to suck the air out from one of the sides, then the higher the ceiling the better, but i still think 5 feet from the top miner to the roof top is more than enough.

also with 30000cfm i am sure the hot room will not be too hot  Grin , but you will need to have a large intake fan in the cold room, facing the opposite direction of your exhaust fan , because the air pressure created by the 30000 cfm along with  miner exhaust fans will be too much for the miner intake fans to handle, they will be spinning at high rpms and the pressure in the cold room will be so low, like latterly you will not be able shut the door of the cold room if it opens to the inside, it will feel like a very strong person pulling it from the inside, therefore you need to force at least something close to 30000cfm to the cold room, which does not have to be a single fan, maybe 10000cfm fan and make a few holes on the side of the wall of the cold room for air to come in easily.
7585  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: My "mini" mining farm on: December 21, 2018, 10:10:21 PM
Nice setup. What are you using to suck the hot air out of the hot room?

a single 600mm2 exhaust fan which i think is about 70cmm or 2000cfm

i have to guess because it is a second hand with no label what so ever  Grin and it is doing the job just fine, also when it get's very hot and i have to increase the fans rpm( of the miners) i simply open the door of the hot room to allow some of the hot air to go outside, the intake for the cold room is on the opposite side so the hot air has noway of going back.

i know many people say that you need at least 150-200 cfm for each miner which means i will need about 200*40 =8000 cfm but really for this set up a single fan is doing the job, in fact it stopped working once so i had to rely on only the pressure of the miners' fans to push the hot air out of the door and temps were not even that high, i think as long as the hot room is large enough then there is plenty of room for the hot air to find it's way out. i know this might not make sense if you would go by the BOOK , but it's working for me



I will take more pictures when i set up the coming miners to give  you a better overall view.
7586  Other / Meta / Re: follow bounty with many accounts on: December 21, 2018, 03:47:47 PM
following bounty with many accounts being banned
 why has some accounts not been allowed to follow the same bounty because the ip that we use is the same. according to me, what do you think so too

I think you misunderstood the cause of whatever problem you seem to have which i do not clearly understand. but one thing for sure, the bounty managers can only stop you from participating in their campaign if they track your posts and conclude that you are doing it with multiple accounts or joining more than one campaign at the time , there are many ways and reasons but IP restriction is not one of them. there is no way that anybody except for the mods ( maybe not even all of them) to know your IP just from posting.
7587  Economy / Speculation / Re: ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be on: December 21, 2018, 03:30:49 PM
I would strongly suggest not to sell any long term holdings at this point. The price as this suggests is not likely to hit lower than $3100. With a past ATH of $20000 there's much more to lose at this point by selling than there is to gain.


agreed , but you realize that someone has to sell for someone else to buy ? why do you think the rich get richer and whales get bigger while average joe enters the market and end up broke ? because they wait too long to buy and when they do, price starts to crash, and again they make the same mistake by waiting so long and then sell and over sold market at the very wrong time.

one does not really need to be a pro trader to understand that buying at 3k or 4k for the long term is a golden chance given the risk/reward ratio. but to someone who day trade, and ready to change their mind as the market does, it is okay to sell at any point because you will buy again soon. but for a hodler or a very long term trader, you can't sell the market after 85% crash, it is just stupid.
7588  Other / Meta / Re: Banned Account *Buratinos* on: December 21, 2018, 05:48:07 AM
 ok , so i think what the OP is trying to say is that , there was an announcement about a prize of extra postcoins for those who guess the right number of something !  on > bitalk.org  ( a Russian website i think) which he had to announce to the members of bitcointalk.org

so he thinks it was a generous act of him to let the people on this forum know about whatever prize was given.

* i used google translator , so i hope someone who speaks Russian can confirm if i understood him right.

if YES , then i do not think this counts as plagiarism, because in many languages including mine, we do not reference a quoted text the same way in English, and by default since the text source is clear then it is not an attempt of plagiarism.

for example if i saw a tweet on Megan fox twitter saying  " Megan will marry trump because he is hot"

if i had to announce that to somebody else i would say the following:

Megan will marry trump because he is hot. without quotations as long as the source is there and it reference the original person.

and since we know i am not Megan fox, and still copied and pasted her text, it is not plagiarism. but if i said I am going to marry trump because he is hot, then it's plagiarism.

so if the Russian speakers on this forum know that the OP is not the postcoin official speaker nor he claimed to be , then this is certainly not a plagiarism.

I doubt that those who only speak English will understand "exactly" what i am trying to point out , but i am sure those whose English is their second language will understand.

tho i still find it strange that someone who has been around this long can't speak proper English ( i know he is not obligated to ) but it is just strange.


7589  Bitcoin / Mining / My "mini" mining farms , set up + wiring on: December 21, 2018, 04:06:29 AM
The front



The back



I have now about 30 Asics in this room, still have room for a few more that i am getting in a few days.

I used MDF 16mm to divide the room into 2 smaller rooms , used a CNC router machine and trilled squares of 121 square mm, so i could easily insert the fans, then dealt with the 1mm with tapes to try and perfectly isolate the the intake from the exhaust.

difficulties i faced:

1- the alignment of the rack , as i used cheap racks to save cost, and they are not very flat, neither was the floor, i knew this from the start so i had my initial design on the CNC to keep a margin to the downside, as i can lift the miner up by putting anything under it but cant force it down ! , so it made more sense to do it this way, that's why you can see some miners sitting on a small peice of wood " the left-overs from the mdf sheets i used".

2- the initial work on the CNC machine, it took me sometimes to perfectly align everything all together, the metal poll in the middle "visible on the second picture"  was taken into consideration while drawing the design which made it less efficient, but still worked. the pole was important as the size of the mdf sheets i had access too were either not large enough to cover the whole space or too large to sit on the cnc table, therefore i had to cut it two 4 pieces and used the pole to hold it.

advantages of the current set up over the previous ( before the split)

1- the miners run cooler as most of the hot air has no way to go back to the intake
2- way less noise
3- potential of better and easier use of the hot air in the hot room ( maybe put a few egg incubators in it and they will crack in hours  Grin )
4- in the summer it gets extremely hot here, up to 45 degrees c  is normal  >: , oh that is (113F for fellow Americans  Grin ) ,,so no matter how much airflow is put, they will still get hot, so i have to use an AC to let the miners inhale  Roll Eyes some cold air or they would melt. this was not possible in an open room as i would need a dozen of ACs to beat the hot air,but now i only have to beat the ambient temp which is enough by using a single 24000 btu AC

so you can actually use anything to isolate, whatever is cheap and at your disposal.

* I have very cheap power rate so i could care less about an AC running 24/7 in the summer, and the ACs here are designed to do so.
* i know the spacing is too much, but i had a lot of room with FIXED power, so 40 miners will be it for this farm, an upgrade is NOT possible  Angry

i did all the wiring myself, including the electricity, if you have any question regarding that , feel free to ask.

cheers.



Farm no.2

So here comes the second farm, actually it's the first but i haven't had the chance to share it with you guys, so i had to manually reset one of the miners today and decided to take a few photos and share my humble set up.

The set up is pretty similar to the other farm > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5087770.0

but this one is a a lot smaller.

so here is the view from the outside



i used gypsum board to build this small farm, don't ask why , i always use the cheapest martial i have at my disposal  Grin

same split set up. hot room to the left, cold room on the right ,notice that i don't have an easy to open door for the hot room since i don't need to in there often.



here is a view for the racks

3 rows, each row takes 4 miners, there is currently only 8, i sold the other 4 for a good price, bought another 4*s9s should be here in a week or so.



here is the 2 intake fans, they are not industrial , just the once you would use in a kitchen, and they are doing pretty good, i have 3 of them attached to the roof to exhaust the hot air from the hot room, sorry i forgot take a picture  of those, but they are the same exact once.



and here is the main and sub circuit breakers



so the main cable that runs to the main breaker is 16mm2 (5awg) , the main circuit breaker is 80 amps at 220v it should handle 17600w, but i am only consuming something below 15000w.



I have 4 MCB of 25amp each , 1 is for the AC , and every 4 miners are connected to 1*25 MCB ( 3*4 = 12 miners).
the 16amp MCB  is used for the switch and the fans.

you can see in the image, there are 2 wires  going out of each MCB, every wire is used by 2 miners, the wire is 6mm (9awg).

so every wire goes to 2 plug sockets as shown in the image below



i use those sockets only to cover the wires, i am not a big fan of using plug sockets for over 1kw , i cut the end of the psu cable, and joint it directly to the cable using the same blue joint kit that you can see in the image of the circuit breakers, the initial set up was using those outlets but then i realized that it was a bit risky as those sockets were not very good quality.

some people  think it's not the best practice, but i don't always good by books, i prefer real life experience and practice, and jointing the miners that way has always worked well for me, i had bad luck with using outlets/sockets, but not a single problem using these joint kits , plus i get to save some money with this set up.

also notice that wiring + breakers set up might not be something that people who go by the book agree with, but this has been going well for over a year and not single problem.

the total cost for building this was about 400-500$ from scratch to end including just about everything except for the miners of course.

edit: the place is quite dusty, am planning to clean it this weekend  Grin
7590  Other / Meta / Re: Let us devise a Sensible solution to Copy and Paste situation. on: December 21, 2018, 02:16:55 AM
The "sensible" solution for plagiarism would be this.

a button on every post labeled with" Click me NOW" , takes you to another page where you need to quote the original text, the two texts along with the timestamp run in simple query that checks the integrity of the report by matching the two texts, if it matches , BINGO ! that account gets INSTANT BAN for a limited period of time which equals to his lifetime.

and yes , the button should be available to everybody including newbies so that they can ban higher rank members who copy and paste.

I can tell you this is going to be a 100% plagiarism free forum, as everybody will be watching over everybody else.

and this to me is the ONLY "Sensible" punishment for somebody who steals the words of others and present them as their own.
7591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will die at 2027 on: December 21, 2018, 01:54:22 AM
 I have not read the comments, not sure if anyone pointed this out, but the truth is . if quantum computers are going to be a threat to anything then the last of anybody's concern would be bitcoin. the whole world will be at stake, starting from banks to secret intelligence   Grin but really QC is not as scary as it seems.

as far as bitcoin goes, i do not see that MUCH of a threat coming form QC.

1- For the mining part,  indeed QC based miner could out perform a non-QC miner but i am willing to bet the horse that the cost will be very high , by the time the production of a proper QC based miner which can beat a non-qc miner , all BTCs would have been mined and we all are going to be dead anyway. and regardless of my theory , there is no way that QC miners will mine all the remaining BTC in no time as many people think (thanks to the difficulty)

2-The strength of QC relies on the ability of cracking a private key from a public key, the great security measure in BTC is that the public key goes through 2 hash functions (RIPEMD-160 and Sha256 ) which are not very vulnerable to QC[1]. of course this means you will need to use a new address for every transaction as your public key would be revealed after using it which could be inconvenient but this threat excist as of today that's why most people use automatic key exchange.

[1] QC or even existing computing can break both hash functions, but if you have the computing power to do so then it would be more profitable for you to mine bitcoin and be ahead of everyone else.

also by the time this treat comes, we would have had more security measures.

so no bitcoin can't die because of qc, it can die for other reasons tho Grin
7592  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: T9+ Miner Status on: December 21, 2018, 01:02:22 AM
This is strange, i did a little research for you and found this > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2899438.0

while appeantly you don't seem to have the wrong firmware but it could still possibly be a firmware issue. so try to flash another firmware also make sure it is the correct firmware. be aware that T9 and T9+ firmware are different.
7593  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? on: December 21, 2018, 12:32:08 AM
Well I can say one thing with absolute, utter certainty. Bitcoin difficulty will now, absolutely, without a doubt, " go sideways for the rest of the year ".

HA! Ya see what I did there.

very wrong bro, do you want to bet that btc difficulty will not go side ways for the rest of the year?

my bet is (btc difficulty will remain flat as hell with no change at all for the rest of the year)  Grin
7594  Economy / Speculation / Re: ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be on: December 20, 2018, 11:28:08 PM
Is it called a cloud chart because you look at it and see anything you want to see! The bear market is not completely over, every time there is a flash of green it comes crashing down again. The red days will be here soon

yes I agree with you, 100% , my chart is pure bullshit drawing based on nothing but wishful thinking, so can you post a picture of the crystal ball that told you the bear market is not completely over?

I have no problem with having a healthy discussion based on TA as this is a TA thread where random thoughts and prediction are OFF-TOPIC.

you can't sell btc at 3k and then troll everyone who says btc is going up  Grin, if you have a chart , post away. if not then put me on ignore list and move on with your life.

thanks
7595  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? on: December 20, 2018, 11:17:12 PM
[...]

when i saw this yesterday, i was like "what is phil smoking ?  Grin" thinking price will follow diff. ! but guess what, we are so close to 4.5k . i will be adding this strategy to my TA if we do hit 4.5k.
7596  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: antMiner E3 Help on: December 20, 2018, 11:09:41 PM
what do you mean by stopped? is it not hashing ? is it showing 0 hashrate? can the status page load ? did this happen after a firmware upgrade? please put more details so we can help you.


also a Reset solves many problems most of the time, so try that first and let us know.
7597  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Antminer Firmware help on: December 20, 2018, 11:06:03 PM
First of all , i do not see a reason to find an alterntavie firmware for L3 , i personally think the original one performs just great.

lastly and most importantly is that you need to release that most of these custom firmware come with devfees, some are announced and many are hidden.

I have no tried any different L3 firmware, but i am pretty sure there is not much of addition that can be done on L3 anymore, plus the profit in the L3 now is very low and it can't take any devfee.

if you have a certain problem with the current firmware please post it and i will be happy to help you out.

cheers.
7598  Local / إستفسارات و أسئلة المبتدئين / Re: للمبتدئين طريقة ترجمة وفهم المواضيع on: December 20, 2018, 10:27:49 PM
احسنت اخي.. فكرة جيدة للاخوة  الي ماعندهم لغة قوية.. للاسف المحتوى التعليمي لكل المجالات دائما يكون مصدره انجليزي حيث يصعب على غير المتلكمين بها فهمها وتحليلها..
لذلك وجب علينا نحن الدين نتكلم اللغة الانجليزية مساعدة اخوتنا للتعلم والاستفادة من المحتوى الانجليزي..

بارك الله فيك على مجودهاتك المبدولة في القسم العربي من المنتدى
7599  Economy / Speculation / Re: ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be on: December 20, 2018, 10:05:17 PM

No, the picture is clear enough and I get what you are saying. But just because the lowest price happened two times in the past at that particular configuration, it doesn't mean it will happen again.

Or let me put it this way: that's not how the Ichimoku system works. I can show you countless examples of other currencies where the appearance of the red cloud above the price meant a prolonged downtrend.



i gave you the link to where i used more important types of indication, i should have posted in the OP but again indeed relying on only this to be 100% is dumb, but i am a big believer in fractals when it comes to bitcoin, even in small time frames , you can find a dozen of fractals that strangely keep on repeating for no technical reason on the chart. this could be the act of bots or god knows what.

as far as how the ichimoku works, i know exactly how it does, as far as am concern the red cloud represents tremendous resistance ahead which is obvious, every previous support from ATH is now adding to the cloud, the ticker it is the harder to break. but being under the cloud does not mean an extended or never ending bear market.

there are a dozen of reasons on why this could be the bottom or at least something that is very close

1- Major support area that held as both support and resistance for about 100 days in 2017.
2- touching the 200 weekly MA which BTC never closed below
3- touching the 50 monthly MA which not a single monthly candle closed below it
4- 85% drop from ATH which almost exactly the same drop we had in 2014
5- it is a very strong support physiologically even or those who don't do TA 
6- it is probably the last wall the bulls have to defend before going 1100 as there is latterly no major support below this
7- the RSI on the monthly is sitting at 44 which is nearly the exact bottom of  2014 and the RSI is over sold on the weekly too

TA wise, this level is amazingly strong and should we have a monthly close below the 2700-3000 area then it will be a very easy and fast trip to 900-1100 without any doubts.


as  far as the trading plan goes for the couple next months

1- buy the 3k zone , sell the 5-6k
2- sell the close below 3k buy the close above 6k.

as for people shorting at 3k before we break it , i have nothing to say to them except "Good fucking luck" you gonna need it.








7600  Economy / Speculation / Re: ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be on: December 20, 2018, 04:42:45 PM
 Most people who troll TA's are the moon boys who HODLED btc from 19k and probably sold at 3k.  this is normal in every market for someone to make money a noob on the other side of the exchange has to lose it.

the same people who called for 100k the beggining of the year, are now calling for 0 on bitcoin. it's funny how many people including some early adopters did not bother spend sometime learning to read charts. millions of people make living by doing so, billions of dollars are being made on BTC chart and the noobs will still say TA is pure bullshit. it's funny but i could care less  Grin


if you know how to do TA then you would have probably sold at 5700$ >





A few  days ago i was still bullish on bitcoin as it stayed strong above major support  trend as well as horizontal support support of 5800$-6100$. the bulls defended that area for from the beginning of the dip on Feb, the long positions on that area were always big enough to bring price up as soon as it mingles around those prices.

this time however, it's pretty different. price went pass them like they were nothing. the area from  5800 to 6100 is has now formed a very strong resistance levels that do not seem to be broken before making a considerable low.

I do believe there could be one more bull-trap before we head down. but most likely nothing major.

The next support would be 4900 which happens to be both trend line as well as a horizntal support formed on Aug 2017 " previews resistance". yet i would not count on that to be a kick start for a new bull run. price will surely bounch back from there only for correction.

breaking lower the 4900 will easily take us to 2900-3100 which is a strong support formed on Sep 2017 from a previous resistance formed on June 2017, what's more interesting that price meets the concept of "history repeating it self" which is about 85% drop from ATH that started in late 2013.

this is the most likely scenario that i expect now, however the hardest part would be the timing. if history is to repeat itself then we will remain a bear market till around Sep 2019 before the next bull run starts.

-------------------------

From a fundamental point of view. recently Crypto has not made anything noticeable that could make it attracting enough to be 2-3 Trillion market.

we see new shit coins every day, most which has no purpose, many scam projects. and recently the hash-war of BCH is one simple example of why the world still think crypto is a risky and easily manipulated market.

we will need couple more months to clear out the path for the true vision of crypto for preparation of mass adoption. as with this situation,prices are as best as they get.


no fud here, just trying to point out the facts. i want nothing more than BTC going to 1 million over night. but this is just not happening.

being realistic can save you from future coming events that may break your heart.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24/11/2018  9:55 pm (GMT)
UPDATE : BTC is down about 30% from the time I posted this, some moon boys probably did not like what i said, some said TA is B.S . but if even 1 person took my analysis seriously and benefited from this i am glad enough.

currently btc is trading at  3940$ on binance .

we will see some relief from here, but most likely only a bear flag that will only bring another dip.

my strategy is to buy into this market slowly as the bull run could happen any time, but major buys will be around 2900-3100$ .  i might increase my buying postion at 3500$ area if i see some good price action.


as i mentioned in one of the comments, the only way for BTC to really be in a bull market is with a daily close above 7500$ with some huge volume, aside from that any surge is nothing but a good chance to short.








and again if you looked at the chart you would re-buy at  around 3220$





waiting for a break out. Shocked






nicely done, approaching resistance so getting ready to close my long position , i might open short positions should i see a reversal candle.

 
and once we broke the 3700 yesterday you would entered in more buying positions. and waiting for  4500$ to take partial profit and most likely sell everything and short everything if the price goes to 5500$.

there are TONS of trades that can be made, my portfolio BTC wise had almost 70% increase from the last fall of the large triangle . and i am not even a professional , i know scalpers who trade on the 1 and 5 mins chart who are up at least 300%.

and you still get the Moon boys who now are the same noobs calling for infinity to the downside.

I am not betting the house that this is the bottom, but the signs are there, if it is the bottom i'l be happy, if it's not then the charts will show it and i will short the hell out of it and still make profit while you can sit there with your crystal ball and wait for BTC to go wherever you wish to see it.

I post my TA's to people who know what it is and they like it and benefit from it. if you are so mad because you hodled btc for so long and sold at 3k and got rekt both ways then these posts should be the least of your concern. Roll Eyes


First of all, we are still way below the (red) Ichimoku cloud. That means we are still in bearish territory. It could still go up or down, but the overall bearish trend is there.

The necessary condition for a bullish run is

1. a TK cross (blue line above the red line), which is not about to happen,
2. the price to go above the cloud, which is also not happening any time soon.

In addition, the cloud is becoming thicker, which could mean sideway action for longer periods of time.

I do not think you even looked at the chart. whenever the red cloud appeared it marked the lowest price. while it is true that as long as we are below the cloud the overall trend is still bearish but if you look closely then you will understand that the the lowest weekly candle appeared right after the cloud was showing.

if the picture is not clear enough then you can use the BLX chart on TV which has a 7 years worth of data and zoom in to every lowest weekly candle , draw the vertical line and it will perfectly line up with the beginning of the cloud.

indeed i do not give much weight to Ichimoku cloud , but it had to match more important factors such as a major support area plus 50 moving average on the monthly chart as well as the weekly 200  MA all these SMAs were never broken below from the begging of btc.

you can look at it here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084972.msg48670288#msg48670288


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I do not like to make long term analysis, i stick to present and follow the chart as it goes regardless, but this could be helpful for the noobs who were selling at 3k.

I do not understand why would someone hodl all the way fro 10k or 15k and sell now , even if 3k was not the bottom, then it can't be too far. it would be either 1800 or worst case scenario at 1100 which marks the last ATH of 2013 and probably is the strongest support of BTC history.

even assuming we were to fall to sub 1000$ and you are not a day trader, does it really make sense to sell at 3k? ofcoz not.

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