Yes this is pretty common sense. Usually in a bear market there is no new retail adoption so harder to get affiliates referrals. When there is a big boom and you pay Google for their adwords or advertise on twitter or elsewhere you will have success in your referrals.

I think most platforms these days unbanned bitcoin advertisements, maybe Instagram is the only one that prohibits advertising bitcoin content. So if you can find a highly effective way of generating tons of views and turn those into clicks which turn into actual members that join then you should do pretty well.

Seems a bull market is brewing.

One thing I noticed was that whenever we were in a bull market and near the top of the cycle, we would get many posts in this mining forum about “mining bitcoins on my laptop” and such.

So far I looked and no such posts. However when they start to pop up, means we are nearing the top.

This indicator seemed to have worked for every one of the past crypto cycles. Crypto becomes so popular that people hear about bitcoin mining and start to get curious and make threads here. Usually when this happens means retail adoption is high and hence why the cycle top risk.

Correct me if my math is wrong but if I recall from a year ago, FTX was $7B or so short and hence the bankruptcy. When they filed for bankruptcy SOL was valued at around $10 or so.

Right now its $60. And they held $1B worth of SOL, so now they hold $6B so far. There are also other tokens and coins which went up in value. FTT is even $5 today compared to <$1 a year ago. I think they own most of the supply of that token.

So is this another MtGox bankruptcy going out of insolvency due to crypto pumping?

I don’t find any of these gold crosses ever reliable. Usually it opens up being a trap and even if it’s correct, it’s a lagging indicator and if you entered when it crossed you would buy at a top more or less.

I found the 200WMA to be accurate because it worked like 3 times without fair, however last year it failed to hold: think it was $22K but Bitcoin went lower to $16K or so shortly after. So unless you had a huge stop, it would be difficult to trade this.

I managed to get a transaction in with 40 sats byte. If I waited I could of gotten perhaps 25-30 sats byte. Seems it’s starting to level off and most likely by Sunday we can get 10-25 sat transactions going.

You need to make sure you get your transaction in by then because during the London open and especially New York open it will get more and more congested and you will be stuck paying 100 sat byte fees.

I don’t think it will hit $1 and if it does somehow, it will be momentary because dogecoin is still POW mineable and has lots of supply coming in.

If I remember correctly at $1 doge you would need like $500M in buy orders for every month (or two) just to absorb the miner selling pressure. Seems very difficult to achieve. So I don’t think it will happen. Even if Elon starts to pump it again.

These fees are high due to a combination of bitcoin hitting new yearly highs and people sending BTC to exchanges to sell and take profit. Another reason is that Binance added ORDI and some other exchanges added SATS and it’s whats causing the mempool to be full.

If you really have an important transaction to make, then try and time your transaction time on the weekend. Usually late Saturday early Sunday there is little activity. If you wait until NY time especially on Monday the fees will most likely spike again. Same with Ethereum.

Seems to be coming down fast now, you might get a 50sat byte transactions confirmed if this trend holds. However tomorrow morning during NY time I am guessing these transactions will keep heading upwards. Today was very nasty if you wanted to get anything confirmed quick.

Looks like the high fees caused some people to rethink their transaction fees and either not do any ordinal transactions or just postpone their transaction until the weekend.

There is some speculation by some Bloomberg analyst that if sec wants to approve the etfs they will need to do it within the next 8 days starting tomorrow. No idea what this means because he also says that if they don’t approve it within this time period then he is 90% sure it will be approved by Jan 10 2024.

The fact that he put Jan 10 2024 and not sometime in Jan 2024 makes it seem it is some deadline but which deadline I don’t know exactly. Should be an interesting week.

Yes today was bad, I was expecting a dip in the transaction fees but if you wanted any transaction to go thru you would need to pay up 100 sats byte.

The fact that Bitcoin broke to new yearly highs many probably want to sell some and this is causing the backlog to get bigger and bigger.

Maybe this weekend we will get a nice dip in transaction fees but who knows.

Whatever you decide to invest in, you need to make sure your crypto doesn't get stolen.

You got 3 options

1) Use an exchange. You can use an exchange which is the easiest however you need to make sure you use a unique email, password, and don't use 2FA with SMS. This is pretty basic and unless the exchange goes bankrupt your crypto is safe.

2) Use a hardware wallet. These cost like $100 or so and you use it to sign transactions.

3) Cold storage. This is free, just need an old computer that is never connected to the internet which you will use just to sign the transaction.

Most likely once the Ordinals trend starts to fade after the Binance listing, the transactions should go down. This has been happening all year. It has its spikes but eventually people get bored of Ordinals and just move on to something else.

Probably 2 more weeks of this and we should level out. If you need to do a transaction try and get it done on the weekend, most likely you will be able to get a 25sat/byte transaction there, so if you got a segwit address it shouldn't cost too much.

The fees are high but they aren’t as high as during 2017 or during 2021-2022 for Ethereum. Back then you would expect to pay $50 for a single transaction. Today the high cost was $4-5, with fees being around 100 sats byte.

If you can try and do transactions on the weekend, usually there is less activity. Fees were decent until the start of November when they started to go up due to these ordinals on the blockchain.

This is way too much work. If I had a time machine I would go back to January 2009 and mine bitcoins with my crappy Acer laptop I had at the time with Satoshi and keep those nice 50BTC block rewards and sell a few during every bubble when I needed to cash.

Or maybe just buy Apple stock before it introduced the iPhone or Tesla right when it IPO years back.

If we get word that the etf is approved then I will most likely head to $40K. But after that it matters when it’s finally listed on the stock market.

Usually events like this are sell the news. The product goes live and it marks the top. Happened with the futures etf, then coinbase listing and later the stock market futures etf.

I think what we will see will be similar to 2015 and 2019, where we get an echo bubble pretty much. Basically a similar bubble but won’t reach ATH. We had this happened in 2019, where we spiked and then pretty much traded nowhere for months until it broke ATH after Covid made all the stock markets rally.

So I think it’s a good prediction. Nothing crazy like those saying it will reach $1M or something crazy like that.

I didn’t even know it was listed on Coinbase. When Craig upset a few people, Binance delisted it because he didn’t like what he saw and I assumed the only exchange it was listed on was Bitfinex. Maybe it was also listed on Ftx but that is gone now.

Really surprised it still has some volume. I remember BSV was the cause for the November crash back in 2018. Feel bad for those that believed CSW that he would dump all his mined Bitcoins and buy BSV instead.

Wasn’t there a thread like this, maybe a few months ago. Someone wanted some risk free way of making 100% a year.

Either way, there is no easy way to do it. Even funding rates are low so you can’t do any cash and carry type of trades which would be considered low risk.

If you don’t want to take any risks you need to buy bonds.

They have been doing this naked shorting for years with any company they knew was on the verge of bankruptcy. And at first they weren’t in danger. I think they started to short GME at like $10-15. So when it spiked to $30 or $50 it wasn’t an issue.

However with all those apes buying OTM strikes like $100 for pennies on the dollar which lead to a huge gamma squeeze is why the stock spikes so high and so fast. Basically tons of demand and no supply. I think I bought GME at $10 but I had an order to sell at $20. Feel like a complete idiot.

Mobile mining never really took off because there is no guarantee that the mining would only be possible on the mobile device.

An algo wouldn’t be able to limit the mining to say Apple Ax chips. So anyone can come out and just build their own software and be able to mine with a computer CPU and basically have an unfair advance. Hence why there are no mobile mining coins out there because it just wouldn’t have any point really.