I guess since it did not yet drop below 10 my prediction was only half correct. It will certainly not drop below 10 before next week. The buyers are strongly in control, as the bank holiday hinders the delivery of merchandise to the exchanges. When the influx of dollars to be sold resumes on Tuesday, we will see some serious action to the downside. I don't think 10 will hold for long. In general, I see that the only thing that hinders the crash from accelerating, is the inability of the exchanges to clear enough dollars to be sold.
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That's pretty cool. Would have to get a lot of people together to place an order like that though, because 10,000 coins is a bit much for me. Doing a Scrooge McDuck into the coins would be fun, if not painful, though That is a minimum economic quantity, since the setup with the dies etc. costs about $500.
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Me also - no problem with anything. Except that the price does not warrant either buying or selling, and that is boring
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Minting in a regular private mint is not too expensive. http://www.hoffmanmint.com/For $1,000-$1,500 you can get 10,000 custom minted tokens.
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Do you believe I should deposit $10,000 or a similar sum with Bitfinex to be lent to leveraged longs? Any idea of risks? What can be the effective return (nominal return seems lucrative)?
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I think the buyers will take the opportunity to buy at this stage. We could see a mini-runup to about 11-12 during the weekend, even higher, as the sellers cannot easily respond due to the bank holiday.
Smashing the supposed support of 10 for good, will not take more than 1-2 weeks, imo. It will offer an ultimate resistance to the price during any subsequent dead cat bounces later down the road.
Looking at the past few price changes, I think we might see a spike back to 13 just before the price drops below 10. See that? Do you see that? The price just spiked up to 13.3, just like I said it would! Am I amazing or what? Yeah, you are so amazing. Although it was particular to the big one. In other exchanges 13 wasn't breached, and it didn't give support anyway. Now we are back to 11, because the cold-blooded panic sellers have again taken the upper ground. My asks were filled and I am happy.
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It's not a terrible system but it does mean you're charging different amounts to different people and just looks messy.
The top reason, as molecular suggested, is to enable instant lock-in with the price of customer's choice. Any other ways to enable this, require upfront investment of thought or money from my part, which I don't want. If this one doesn't look like crap, what does? http://www.tulving.com/Yet it is probably the largest coinshop in the US, with sales in $500 million range per year. Also the company that is selling the maples in this thread, has cumulative sales of several million and has never had a website. People care for different things and I want to cater to people who want effortless order process, cheap prices and quick delivery.
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Down we go some more, we hit 10.5 today. Those single digits are just calling to us, who wants to push the price down that last little bit?
I think the buyers will take the opportunity to buy at this stage. We could see a mini-runup to about 11-12 during the weekend, even higher, as the sellers cannot easily respond due to the bank holiday. Smashing the supposed support of 10 for good, will not take more than 1-2 weeks, imo. It will offer an ultimate resistance to the price during any subsequent dead cat bounces later down the road. Looking at the past few price changes, I think we might see a spike back to 13 just before the price drops below 10. I am gonna panic sell this "dead cat bounce". The cold-blooded panic selling is always a prudent choice of action in this market. I would say the rally stalls at 12 maximum though. I have sells spread out in the range of 11-12 based on this idea.
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not an announcement (yet), just for discussion:
Bitcointalk Prize on Economics <-replace 'Economics' with something else when somebody has a burden to establish more prizes
The prize has 4 classes.
Platinum Gold Silver Bronze
The prize will be given for merits in Economic thought, as expressed in Bitcointalk Forum posts. The Prize Committee oversees the Prize Fund, which accepts donations if needed. Prize Committee must consist of at least 3 and at most 7 individuals.
Silver Prize will be awarded monthly.
In April, for example, the Committee awards the March prize as follows (days are days of April):
1. Nomination period begins. All established members of the community* are eligible to nominate a member of the community for the prize. Nominations must be done in different threads titled accordingly. The nomination must include sufficient quotes for the nominee's last month posts that establish his wisdom concerning the subject matter. These threads are open and anyone can add quotes that further support the nominee, discuss etc. If more than 5 people are nominated, further nominations require 2 established members backing, after 10 people, 3 members etc. An established member may only nominate or support one member.
7. Nomination period ends and no more can be accepted. There may be polls/popular votes for sorting out the nominees' contributions, etc. The idea is that as many as possible would contribute to the process and consider the economic thoughts of the nominees as the jewels of all the produce of the past months, and learn from them.
10. Deliberation period begins. The supporters of nominees, must have compiled a Nomination Letter for the nominee. It must contain a maximum of 100 lines of quotes of the nominee's posts in the last month + the necessary context, in case that the posts are not stand-alone but rather an integral part of a debate. The Committee has maximum 4 days to deliberate, to whom the prize should be awarded.
15. Silver Prize is awarded to one of the nominees. If the Committee finds it best to award multiple prizes in case of exceptional quality of the posts, or no prizes at all, due to poor quality, they may do so. They also have an option to award one or many Bronze prizes for close runners-up.
Gold Prize will be awarded yearly in January for the last year's contribution. Everyone who was awarded Silver Prize during the year is automatically nominated and no one else is eligible. Otherwise the process is similar to the Silver Prize award. The Committee must not abstain from awarding a Gold Prize but may award several.
Platinum Prize
This may be awarded for exceptional contributions and the member must have at least 2 gold prizes before this is possible.
Prize amounts
Platinum Prize = BTC100 Gold Prize = BTC10 Silver Prize = BTC1 Bronze Prize = BTC0.1
The proportion of prizes awarded should be 1 Platinum per about 10 Gold, per about 100 Silver, per about 100-500 Bronze. The members of the Committee have a quota of one Bronze Prize per member per month, for instant award. The appropriate animation must be selected with which to do this in the middle of the discussion.
* Established member = Logged in for 100+ hours, 250+ posts, 6+ months.
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I am no bear, but I paused... ...and decided that this is big. So far the biggest I have seen is a United Nations organisation taking payment in bitcoin. We are just waiting for a full-scale acceptance by the taxman, then it is pretty much done.
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Hi, thank you! We will soon be offering also 90% circulated silver (Silvervault: AGD type), and American Silver Eagles. Please reply in this thread if you are interested!
I might be. I don't like to commit unless I'm sure and I'm fluid on a lot of stuff right now. I'll keep an eye on this thread. Why would I buy a metal that is losing value with BTC that is rapidly gaining value? It is called diversification, which ultimately derives its importance from the theory of personal non-constant marginal utility of wealth. It is generally agreed that the likelihood of silver losing more than 50% of its purchasing power in one year, is very small. It is generally agreed that the likelihood of cash losing more than 50% of its purchasing power in connection with the above, is even smaller. It can be postulated that if both of the above happen, the likelihood of anything holding its purchasing power, is small. Bitcoin can be that anything, and it has done incredibly well, and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of it losing more than 50% per year is rather large. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion: For a person that possesses an average, non-constant, marginal utility of money, it makes sense to construct a portfolio of assets, which offers nonzero, positive future value in as many as possible different scenarios. This may consist of bitcoins, silver, cash and other assets, in proportions deemed satisfactory. This is a perfectly sound theory. I agree wholeheartedly. But why would I use BTC to buy it when I can use Fiat? I have an equally lengthy explanation for that but let's cut it short: I am a moneychanger. You can use fiat or anything if you like, and you only need to pay a premium that equals my cost of selling that fiat or item, and transferring the value to bitcoins. Because at present, fiat is depreciating rapidly, I will probably offer you rather "bad" terms compared to these ones, which are very competitive.
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Hi, thank you! We will soon be offering also 90% circulated silver (Silvervault: AGD type), and American Silver Eagles. Please reply in this thread if you are interested!
I might be. I don't like to commit unless I'm sure and I'm fluid on a lot of stuff right now. I'll keep an eye on this thread. Why would I buy a metal that is losing value with BTC that is rapidly gaining value? It is called diversification, which ultimately derives its importance from the theory of personal non-constant marginal utility of wealth. It is generally agreed that the likelihood of silver losing more than 50% of its purchasing power in one year, is very small. It is generally agreed that the likelihood of cash losing more than 50% of its purchasing power in connection with the above, is even smaller. It can be postulated that if both of the above happen, the likelihood of anything holding its purchasing power, is small. Bitcoin can be that anything, and it has done incredibly well, and will continue to do so. However, the likelihood of it losing more than 50% per year is rather large. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Conclusion: For a person that possesses an average, non-constant, marginal utility of money, it makes sense to construct a portfolio of assets, which offers nonzero, positive future value in as many as possible different scenarios. This may consist of bitcoins, silver, cash and other assets, in proportions deemed satisfactory.
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Down we go some more, we hit 10.5 today. Those single digits are just calling to us, who wants to push the price down that last little bit?
I think the buyers will take the opportunity to buy at this stage. We could see a mini-runup to about 11-12 during the weekend, even higher, as the sellers cannot easily respond due to the bank holiday. Smashing the supposed support of 10 for good, will not take more than 1-2 weeks, imo. It will offer an ultimate resistance to the price during any subsequent dead cat bounces later down the road.
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However, I don't think this bubble will reach $400. $300 is the maximum I can imagine at the moment. And the subsequent crash will take us to below $100,
I agree. likely below $40.
LMAO. I am willing to write PUTs for $50 expiring Dec 2013. How many you want? What price?
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Any bears feeling like to sell me some call options? Escrowing through bitcoin-otc or forum moderators.
+1. Me too!
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Another milestone passed.
This is incredible.
I think we need to start naming these epochs... How about we name them after how many satoshi you get for one US dollar: Now you get 1,000,000 satoshi = millionaire-era In 2012 you got 10,000,000 satoshi = multimillionaire-era Before 2011 bubble you got 100,000,000 satoshi = 100-millionaire era In 2010 after MtG opened, you got 1,000,000,000 satoshi = billionaire era In 2009 until about the Pizza, you got 10,000,000,000 satoshi = multibillionaire era. This puts the biggest holders in the category with today's richest (public) people on earth. Just wait "Gentlemen, we are the new wealthy elite"
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LOL chart ends in 1. June 2011
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$100 is the new $1. Seriously. You have to be blind to not realize the similarity. We are in for a 2-month consolidation. And then... (I wish there was the cigar-smoking smiley out there)
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Wouldn't be too hard to cause a mini crash right now - bids are tiny.
Compared to how many bitcoins are likely in MtGox, the bids are thin all the way down to $1. When the ball gets rolling in the other direction with the big guys playing, this whole thing will come undone exactly like last time. Really, the question on everybody's mind should be whether bitcoin can survive 2 catastrophic market collapses. It's not a matter of if another one will happen, it's a question of when, and we're getting closer to the breaking point. I will add my own response to this, not in the hope of changing Proudhon's mind but in case there are newbies considering giving his opinion some credibility due to his post-count. Proudhon, Thinking about the owners of these enormous numbers of bitcoins you're implying are 'likely [to be] in MtGox' put yourself in the shoes of serious reasoning bears who believe Bitcoin will fail and whose intention is to get out with maximum profit. Why, given the evidence for increasing interest, numbers and volume, do you think they would prefer to crash the market losing loads through slippage rather than sell as much as they can at current price then see what happens then rinse & repeat? Thing is, for your scenario to work it would need a huge proportion of the volume of Bitcoin holders either to be opportunists who see no future for the currency but are taking advantage of the 'fad' or naive get-rich-quick folk who would buckle and sell at the first signs of a reversal. I don't believe this to be the case in terms of the latter because we keep having nice dips (such as now) to lose the weak hands as we go along. As for the former I'm not getting the sense of that. Do you have some evidence that it is? Proudhon is a joke, nobody would write 3000 bearish posts if he wasn't involved. If he was involved in shorting, he would have been out many times and lost all his money. So he is involved in being long. When did he begin in the forum? Yes, April 2011. I assume his average entry point is $1, which means that in the minimum, we are looking into the eye of a llama who owns 1000s of bitcoins. There is no upper limit but I would believe he owns less than BTC25,000 by statistical analysis. So let's continue playing the game with him, and not analyze too much
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I reduced the bitcoin percentage of my savings from 86% to 5% today, after making the equivalent of 2 years of my usual salary in 1 months thanks to bitcoin. Fear, greed and luck...seeing it on the first page of newspapers worldwide, it seems like a good point to sell as long as the buyers storm the exchanges.
I don't want it to disappear again, like it happened trading stocks before.
I still left 1 month salary in it, waiting for 4 digits bitcoin, planning to keep in for the next few years.
Now waiting for verification @ mtgox to get the fiat money out. I am number 5000, as I am living in Tokyo just 10 min walk from MTGOX office in Shibuya, do you think I could make a verification on the spot there?
Congratulations!
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