Guys guys guys, we are getting very close to the bottom of this support channel, depending on the exchange you are watching it could be anything from 2600 to 2800 .  but basically we are looking at the high of 5th Jun 2017, which is also the low of 11th sep 2017. this is a critical moment for bitcoin. a break below with a full candle including the body will be the worst drop of this year.

possible scerinos : 1- a test of the 2800$ with a huge wick followed buy massive green candles to the up side with a fast rally to potentially 4k
2- a break through, panic, huge red candles.

depending on the shape of the candle ( price action ) you should know if you are selling or buying.

I am personally in short positions, i am starting to close my positions slowly all the way to 2800$, i might get into some long positions if i see a price reaction, in fact i got a few orders sitting between 2500-2700 hoping for them to be activated. but i will close with loss if the at least 4hr candle closes below the support.

stay safe.

100% agree with diversity. also some times not investing in anything is the best investment. honestly the whole stock market is setting up for a massive dip based on charts, 2019 is not going to be kind to most people in my opinion.

lol so is mine but this is really just random.

I will eat my **** if does 

 

  The best to not be very disappointed is by actually being prepared for the worst. if you know what could and may happen then you will be less vulnerable.


Many people are losing their minds and money over this bearish trend, the problem with average Joe is that they usually enter the market at the very wrong time, and leave it in the worst time .


Crypto market just as in every other market is nothing but how W.buffet defined it  "a mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the paitient"

what you need to understand that every market consist of 3 main phases that must repeat every now and then.


Bull period :  > could be the worst time to enter aka people who bought for 19k last year

This is something like 2017 where price moved from around 900$ to 20,000$ in a year gaining around 2000%
it's also something similar to Sep 2013 to  Dec 2013 when price moved from 95$ to 1100$ in 4 months


Bear period: > a better time to enter
From end 2013 to Jan 2015 price entered a bear market from 1170 to 160$ ( lasted almost a year)
From Dec 2017 to present !

Sideways : > the best time to enter

From Jan 2015 to Nov 2015 price remained in a sideways market for almost a year  before starting a new bull run,
expected to begin around Q1 2019
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in fact if you open any stock chart that has a data of say 30-50-70 years and watch it closely, it will look very similar to bitcoin chart, these market cycles are a MUST.

the only thing that may change is the length of each of these periods, the current bear market does not have to exactly last the same as the 2013-2015 bear market, it could be longer or shorter , but rest assure that as soon as we stop making new lower lows, we will not go back to ATH the next month of two, the sideways market has to come before that.

the good thing about crypto being still a small market , is that even in it's sideways market it can still do 50-100% moves, so for those who trade they can still find positions to enter, but for the holders, really sorry there is nothing much you can do beside being prepared for the average scenario which is based on the crypto history with estimate figures tells us this.

a bear market continues to 2019 Jan, with small corrections to the upside before making new lows.
Q1,Q2,Q3 of 2019 are nothing but a side way market where price will keep bouncing from whichever the bottom will be which according to history repeating itself is anywhere from 1 to 3k, and then Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 a new bull run takes place.

make no mistake this is crypto ( a very small market cap ) a rally of 100% to 6k now MEANS NOTHING , every rally up will be sold out as long as we do not hit a quite long sideways market.


this is the average scenario of history repeating itself. which IMO is very likely to play out. so as a holder who do not know how to sell/buy what you should do is simply invest only what you can afford to lose, and be prepared for a scenario that says the price you bough for is never going to show up until 2020, so if you bough for 9k and now you don't know what to do, i suggest you get busy with something else and only check once in a few months, other wise you will give in and trust me the moment you do , the bull market will start.

now indeed this is not a financial advice what so ever, but I know that once you are prepared for what could possibly happen, you will avoid disappointments.

Good luck.

I can tell you one thing for sure, that there is no place BTC can't go to. from a million $ to 0. everything is possible. but i rather take it 1 step at the time by using charts , i know many people think TA is bullshit, but it really what most people use to make decisions therefore many sell / buy at the same point creating both fomo and panic. so you need to watch the levels that traders are watching to act accordingly.

we first need to see the overall chart, bearish/down trend ! , it is always easier to keep moving in the same direction than changing to the other direction, so price tends to keep dropping until it does not. so we look at the potential areas of where btc could bounce from.

Levels of major supports

2700-3000$

1700-1900$

800-1200$

these are historical numbers that prices bounced from, so many buying positions as well as short SL sit around them, breaking each level will give more chances for price to go to the next lower level. so if we break below 2700$ then rest assure that we are very likely going to 1900$ and there will be no level of interset for major traders to buy anywhere in between as there is no Historical support there.

Next Resistance.

3700-3800$


4400-4500$


5500-5600$

as long as we are still above 2700 then the bulls are holding , the movement we close below 2700 rest assure the selling pressure will reach they sky.
same thing goes to breaking 3700, if we close above it, chances are we headed towards 4400$


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as an overall analysis of this current bear trend, the most support that makes sense is the high of 2014 which is 1100$ , the second option is 2700$. there support from 2700 to 1100 is rather weak and i do not it has any technical or physiological  reasons for a rebound from there, also there is a very good chance we remain in a side way market from 1 to 4k for another whole year before moving any higher. so be prepared for the worst.



 

so how do you place your entries/exists ? magic ball? or just hodl from 20k to 3k? i would like to know of a WORKING way other than TA. thanks.

well if the price rises and the trend turns fully bullish then sure as hell i will buy, I do not like catching falling knives, everything now points to lower prices, even if we shot to 6k the next hour this does not change the overall sentiment of this extra-bearish market. I think the biggest mistake one can make is blindly catching a falling knife simply because they are afraid to miss the bottom.

I am aware that there are 2 types of locked phones, one is stolen and reported via findmyipone therefor it is black listed, another one is simply forgetting  your login details and your phone gets locked after a software upgrade.

this is my wife's personal Iphone 5s, she bought it brand new and she was the one who set up the icould account couple years ago, so i am very certain 100% sure that it's not black listed what so ever.

I am aware of some methods that can unlock the non-blacklisted phones which is limited to some people ! , so if you can unlock this iphone 5s please post here or better send me a PM.

thanks.

hopefully we will get another 15% drop in 8 days, that will be a total of 30% , could take us back to June-May difficulty. i have a good feeling about the coming days. we just need to see btc  dropping more in price so that the difficulty follow along.

well isn't this the reason why people stop mining? when you have to pay more bills than what you earn in FIAT then it would make more sense to buy bitcoin directly,mining at break even is also a loss , since you are consuming a product that has a very  limited -life span ( both technically and economically) while you can just sell it and buy bitcoin instead.

anyone mining at a loss or break even could be categorized as one of these ( at least in my opinion)

1-They believe in BTC more than they believe in their wives, the are simply mining to satisfy a mysterious genius "Japanese" person's Vision(very RARE)
2- They want to get bitcoin without having to go through banks and KYC B.s  , aka a secret fund ( very a few)
3- They think the price of bitcoin will recover before they have to pay their bills or at least not before the point where they can't afford it ( not many )
4- some people are just stupid ! ( many )

nice work out there, but I gotta disagree with one point.

1- The triangle target is a bit off, not sure how you trying to mark it, but my guess is that you are using a measure tool which uses % and this pretty wrong. the target of the triangle needs to measured in Length out of the Log scale, that would be around 1100.

there is no way that this cycle will be the last of it's kind, look at the stock market over the last 100 years. it always moves in 3 main phases. Bull,Bear and Sideways before the next bull swing.

however you are right in terms of % growth , there is no way that every bull phase will have the same % of growth, but every time a bear market ends, a new ATH has to be made, for all i know the next ATH could be just about 40k, it doesn't have to do the same growth in % of 2015-2017 , it is not very possible, the bigger the market cap the harder the growth, but every end of a bull run has to mark a higher high than the previews ATH. this is the nature of every market on planet earth.

if this theory does apply, in 2022 we will look back at the charts, and regret not selling the wife and kids for BTC 

a 100$ wick on a  1 minute candle on BTC and on Binance is not something that happens all the time, if it does, please post a few screen-shots of a similar wick on Binance.

now i could be wrong because i do not pay much attention to the lower time frames, and on the daily/weekly charts which is mostly use it's hard to sport such actions. but i still thing it's strange, unless someone can point out a few similar situations.

We are approaching the 2900-3000 support zone,  which is the lowest part of the visible support zone, there is probably tons of SL and buy orders at the area.i expect a very high volume there, could be a very goo chance to go long for a quick scalp, but should we close below it, i'll be selling every thing !.

for btc to be worth 333,333$ it means the total market cap for btc is going to be over 6 TRILLION $ . assuming some Alts will make it too even with 60% btc dominance then we are talking about 10 TRILLION DOLLARS.

should that happen which is possible , then the value of USD by then will have the same value of the smallest piece of a toilet paper as of today ( which is going to happen sooner or later anyway ).

your theory does apply to every other similar move then ? 

look at this shit! happened earlier today.







Low volume, Smaller Market cap > pump and dumps/ spoofing ?

are we going to see more of these manipulations ?

will regulations be important to stop the whales of doing this shit ?

I see such thing on shitcoins on many exchanges, but seeing this on BTCUSD is scary !

I think I have passed the newbie level by a few steps, but these numbers still elevate my blood pressure .