well isn't this the reason why people stop mining? when you have to pay more bills than what you earn in FIAT then it would make more sense to buy bitcoin directly,mining at break even is also a loss , since you are consuming a product that has a very  limited -life span ( both technically and economically) while you can just sell it and buy bitcoin instead.

anyone mining at a loss or break even could be categorized as one of these ( at least in my opinion)

1-They believe in BTC more than they believe in their wives, the are simply mining to satisfy a mysterious genius "Japanese" person's Vision(very RARE)
2- They want to get bitcoin without having to go through banks and KYC B.s  , aka a secret fund ( very a few)
3- They think the price of bitcoin will recover before they have to pay their bills or at least not before the point where they can't afford it ( not many )
4- some people are just stupid ! ( many )

nice work out there, but I gotta disagree with one point.

1- The triangle target is a bit off, not sure how you trying to mark it, but my guess is that you are using a measure tool which uses % and this pretty wrong. the target of the triangle needs to measured in Length out of the Log scale, that would be around 1100.

there is no way that this cycle will be the last of it's kind, look at the stock market over the last 100 years. it always moves in 3 main phases. Bull,Bear and Sideways before the next bull swing.

however you are right in terms of % growth , there is no way that every bull phase will have the same % of growth, but every time a bear market ends, a new ATH has to be made, for all i know the next ATH could be just about 40k, it doesn't have to do the same growth in % of 2015-2017 , it is not very possible, the bigger the market cap the harder the growth, but every end of a bull run has to mark a higher high than the previews ATH. this is the nature of every market on planet earth.

if this theory does apply, in 2022 we will look back at the charts, and regret not selling the wife and kids for BTC 

a 100$ wick on a  1 minute candle on BTC and on Binance is not something that happens all the time, if it does, please post a few screen-shots of a similar wick on Binance.

now i could be wrong because i do not pay much attention to the lower time frames, and on the daily/weekly charts which is mostly use it's hard to sport such actions. but i still thing it's strange, unless someone can point out a few similar situations.

We are approaching the 2900-3000 support zone,  which is the lowest part of the visible support zone, there is probably tons of SL and buy orders at the area.i expect a very high volume there, could be a very goo chance to go long for a quick scalp, but should we close below it, i'll be selling every thing !.

for btc to be worth 333,333$ it means the total market cap for btc is going to be over 6 TRILLION $ . assuming some Alts will make it too even with 60% btc dominance then we are talking about 10 TRILLION DOLLARS.

should that happen which is possible , then the value of USD by then will have the same value of the smallest piece of a toilet paper as of today ( which is going to happen sooner or later anyway ).

your theory does apply to every other similar move then ? 

look at this shit! happened earlier today.







Low volume, Smaller Market cap > pump and dumps/ spoofing ?

are we going to see more of these manipulations ?

will regulations be important to stop the whales of doing this shit ?

I see such thing on shitcoins on many exchanges, but seeing this on BTCUSD is scary !

I think I have passed the newbie level by a few steps, but these numbers still elevate my blood pressure .

50 merits for this this post is very fair. it is very informative to say the least.

لا اعتقد انه تفسيرك يميل للصواب.. انت معقد الموضوع زيادة شوية..

الحاصل الان هوا دورات سعرية طبيعية لاي سوق جديد

تابع الموضوع   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5081740.new#new

تاريخ القرار ديسمبر 2017

تانيا النص يقول العملات الافتراضية وليس المشفرة .

I am not rushing to buy bitcoin, i am not afraid to miss the rally simply because of the nature of the market cycles.






It is quite impossible to predict the bottom or the top of any trend, but one thing for sure that these cycles apply to every single market.

 



looking at BTC chart  from the drop in late 2013-2014 the market lost volatility and remained in a sort of "stand-by" mode for roughly a whole year (300 days). before breaking out of the massive triangle.

there is a very good chance the period of accumulation and anger-depression for this bear trend to be shorter or longer than the previews one, but one thing for sure is that it has too take some good amount of time which in my opinion a few months at least.  according to the historical data the rally should start around OCT 2019.

there is no way the rally will start over night and recover all these dips instantly, no market does this. that is why I do not try to catch the falling knife, and FOMOing over every single green candle like many others do.

I see a lot of people start jumping in and calling for " moon is here, buy now before it's too late".

I understand that people are afraid to miss the train, thinking the price can move up real fast similar to last year crazy bull run, what they don't know is that the real rally only starts after breaking out of the current ATH.

if you look at the chart, you can see the price rose up slow and steady from the low of 2014 to the previews ATH formed on Dec 2013 around ( 1170 $).
the moment it broke out of the ATH , it starting going in almost an angle of 90 degree with nearly no correction all the way to almost 20k.

of course it much better to enter some where close to the bottom, but the bottom can be any where, and as long as the market is taking massive dips like this, then it's unlikely to be the bottom.

I am almost certain that the price will fall even further from here, but indeed it will always correct, for all i know price could go back up all the way to 5.5k to re-test it but that will only be the fuel for a further dip and not the begging of a rally. 


unless you are buying for the very long term ( years ) then i rather wait for a better signal to buy. so from now to the accumulation stage, we could see many bull traps, 10-20% up , people start jumping on the MOON boat only to end up sinking.

and of course, this is not a financial advice, I am only sharing my thoughts. feel free you share yours.

YES you can. get as many BTCs as you can for as cheap as you can , wait until 2025-2027, there is a good chance you can sell each for 100k each.

I will bet a horse that the imaginary 3k level will not be the bottom. we simply might not get there ( very unlikely) or go way further down ( very likely).

I do not have a crystal ball, but i know for sure that whatever the majority think the bottom is, then it will certainly be not.

I do not understand the logic behind this theory that many people have.it is probably the wrongest theory i have ever seen. if bitcoin is down to 3k from 20k how is it difficult for 2k , 1k or even 500$ ?

There is no limit of howl btc can go to, 1k is possible just as much as 20k. 

thanks.

there are people who are buying now, if not then who do the sellers sell to?

but you know what you are right, more people will buy BTC during a bull run rather than in a bear one. it is plain simple.

what if i told you that I will not buy bitcoin now but i will buy it above 6k? you will think i am stupid! but hear me out

from a TA point of view, the 6k was the strongest support bitcoin has ever seen, held the price throughout 2018 until last month, it was a bull zone, it was much safer to buy above 6k than buying now. that's the ABC of trading, and the reason why as soon as btc fell below 6k, most people sold it, and price collapsed nearly 45% so far. why would i buy it now when it can do another 40% or 50% easily ?

it is either i buy it for dirt cheap like those  who bought it in 2016, for less than 1000$, or wait for the trend to change and join the bulls. to make money you need to JOIN THE TREND, NOT FIGHT IT. buying now is fighting against the trend, if you win, you win BIG , but the odds are against you.

again, do whatever you feel like doing. and good luck

I can not tell you what to do, but i personally won't go bullish on btc before i see a re-test of the 2016 highs, anywhere from 900$ to 1100$. to me, any bounce before this is a bull trap which unless you are a day trader then you should not care about. for eth i am looking for 30-40$ , ltc 12-16$ xrp 7-9 cents. i will surely buy btc at 2900-3200 if i see a reversal signal, only to make a day profit  by dumping it for a small profit. but for me to start buying BIG i will wait for those numbers.

will also keep some cash for a potential drop to 400$-500$.

another position where i will start buying  is breaking 7500$ , retesting it, showing great bull dominance, then i will go long. but anywhere from 6k to 1k i will only look for shorting.

Good luck