This time I am sure it will not repeat. Everybody I know has sold at least 10-20% in anticipation. This will stop any dip prematurely. If nothing happens, all this money will start buying back about noon Sunday. 

Not inconceivable to see $120 next week and $200 in April. IF we take a breather at $100 it will just last 1-2 weeks and allow for big boys to ship some moar money in the exchanges.

My take is still that Gox will not fall today. The shortsellers and easterfreaks are all there, holding the ground at $98.5.

OTC, which means, "unmanipulated trades between people" was 81 € - $103, about 30 minutes ago.

1oz Silver American Eagles:
1oz Silver Canada Maple Leafs:
90% circulated U.S. coins per $1 f/v:

EU only. Add BTC.300 for s/h. Ordering via PM. Maples you can lock in without seeing me online, for other products currently contact first. I am working on releasing the automanual ordering for them also. Details.

Hi, thank you! We will soon be offering also 90% circulated silver (Silvervault: AGD type), and American Silver Eagles. Please reply in this thread if you are interested!

You want to insure against the crash? I am willing to bet you A LOT that it will never go to $20 or $50 anymore. See, if it rises, you lose a little. If it crashes, you win a lot. Interested?

Yes, likely. After all it was just $1k, and I had plenty of other things to do during 2011-2012. Just bothering to think about selling it would have been too much.. I almost never sell anything. I still own mining stocks that peaked in May, 2006, you believe me now?!  

What I am saying about the recent trades, this is just a sorry silverbug trying to play catch up, and no chance I will be numbered with the large holders ever, that train is long gone  

No chance. What I am doing now is to eat the loss of $999000 when bitcoin went up from $0.1 to $100, but buying the same number of coins regardless. This way I can cap my losses at the said amount. If I bought any less than I considered back then, my losses would likely amount to infinity (when dollar is scrapped and bitcoin tends to infinity in terms of dollars).

Yes it hurts to make a $1 million mistake. Good that I didn't consider investing $10k back then, the mistake would be too big to bear...

What are the current terms of the paid subscription?

It is productive in that it keeps the economy solid and honest.

For example, it can be used to steer the interest rates. If the rate of interest rises high enough, the owner of the megastash can start lending them out to the market. This gives the new entrepreneurs more cheap loan-capital that would not be there otherwise. This facilitates growth of the real economy. Also the contrary is true - if the owner has already maxed out lending, and the rates keep on going down, he can smell rotten and decide to withdraw his lending from the market, and put it in a cold wallet instead. (The "rotten" he smells, might be for example fractional reserve lending that feeds the market with illusion that credit is available although in fact it isn't). This way he cools down the bubblish economy.

If you consider what is happening in the fiat world, we are in the very final stage of the credit bubble illusion. The interest rates are the lowest in world history, still nobody wants to borrow (I mean nobody with the actual ability to pay back the loan). Only governments and individuals who are broke, do borrow these days. Wealthy people and productive businesses either avoid borrowing like a plague, or are disqualified.

I own more income generating businesses, gold, silver, 500 euro notes, and bitcoins than most of you. I asked for a 7-year loan to buy a EUR 420k house, I would have put EUR 120k down and the rest in monthly installments that were within my family's monthly net income. The bank did not even bother answering me! Also my friends report about similar things.

So I smell rotten here. I won't keep my money in the bank earning exactly 0.0% interest if they are not doing what they should, loaning it out to the most creditworthy borrowers imaginable. If they keep on buying treasury bonds instead, it tells in plain letters about their appetite for ponzi and scorn for the productive economy.

Buying bitcoins now, for some it is a way to riches. For others, it is the ultimate manifestation of distrust in the banks.

It is cyclical. Bitcoin will have to live several cycles like the one decribed above. The first bubble already was in 2011. The second we will in all likelihood see April-May. It is currently growing 20% per week, you can do the math, in the end of May we are at $1000 if we continue like this. Then it is a bubble, an overextension, which will crash to the baseline.

It is up to bitcoin's long term solidity and usability, whether a bubble and a crash will be followed by order(s) of magnitude bigger rise, bubble (and crash), or whether it will continue low.

Japan's real estate was a bubble in 1980s, because after 25 years, it is still trading for 25% of the then valuation. If bitcoin rises to $1000, and it is still trading in $250 in 2038, then we can say for sure it was a top.

Interim bubbles such as 2011 should be traded with wisdom. After all, the ones that bought in at $31.9 are now sitting on 4.9% monthly gains. 

Interesting read. My friend tried to convince me to buy bitcoins that time, but I thought it was too small, and too risky, too illiquid, too much hassle. Well I got what I wanted, buying it now at 500x the price 

In Iceland the government did make a difference between itself and the banks, saying: "the banks fucked up, we didn't and won't insure anything, the people lost money, so we help them sue the bankers, we don't socialize the losses".

In Cyprus, allegedly: "the banks fucked up, we insured some of the deposits, we don't want to make good on our obligation (to insure all losses up to $100k), so we twist the rules to make sure the other depositors pay as much as possible, and taxpayers as little as possible".

Of course this is wrong. If you guarantee my loan to a third person, you cannot demand my other lawful creditors to take the hit before you cover the losses on the part you guaranteed. At least here in Finland. I can understand why your government wants it this way, though. I even believe it is fair as a principle, but wrong because it breaks the agreement that was in force at the time.

To think of it further, you can even say it is right. After all, government has an obligation, so they are "taxing" people who have money in the banks. They call it tax, right. Of course taxpayers pay, in one way or another. Hint: in most countries, only about 10-20% of people actually are taxpayers. Others either work for gov, or earn so little that they get more from the state in return.

The bottom line is, Cyprus is small, and if the government accumulates "enough" debt, the entrepreneurs move away as they don't want to pay the interest via taxes. Otoh, if the government hits them hard one time, they will move away in disgust. So no matter what happens, the same people will not trust the government any more.

Finland was a net creditor in the 1980s. Then the politicians wanted us to integrate to the western financial system. Of course there has been some progress during the 25 years (as well as the previous 25 years 1963-1988 also saw some progress which would have happened regardless of the welfare socialist tendencies) but the net result is that gov now owes 86 billion, which is more than 100,000 eur per taxpayer. I would rather take financial liberty. And I will, there is no chance in this world that I would pay the taxes on my global businesses to Finland. My limit is 10% of realized profits. If some country wants it, I can consider. If not, I will not realize the profits in any country.

If we continue this pace, between 200-300. And then it will crash.

Sell means "sell". Maybe I will start doing it in a distant future, after my core position is established.

I want.


My last operation did suffer a slippage of 9,7% in about 3 business days. So that is roughly on par with GoxEUR+10% now...

Bitstamp current price $87 + 10% extra would be 150kEUR -> 2000 BTC. It is marginally cheaper, and less hassle I hope.

I might sell in bitcoin.de once I have finished the most urgent purchases first

America was given a second chance, and now, AND NOW, they are using it to buy back DOLLARS! 

I saw him smoking a cigar in a recent Vladimir Club meeting. I suppose he is holding to qualify...

Yeah. Bitcoin is designed to have 2 decimal places, just like the other currencies. They put the extra 6 there just for those with little faith in the beginning.

So we are soon touching $0.0001 per UltimateBitcoin. 1 UBTC = 100 satoshi.

I think the name "great runup" will be reserved for the time when UBTC price goes from .01 to parity with the dollar. Then anyone investing $10k into bitcoin will find himself millionaire!

The net effect of that is 0.

So there must be offsetting sellers for the new entrant + doubleup buying pressure.