7200 is downside target from the 8000 level I think due to old volume at those prices.     Main thing I watch short term is on the 4hr bars the 8 day average.   When it crosses below that its challenged and can easily reset or loop back to previous support which would be around the 7200 area initially



So its staying above right now but its a reasonable point of failure I think

Its challenging 8000 again and because its Monday I figure its a replay of previous action, not a bad time to try a trade and watch if it can retrace previous weakness down to 7200 area.



Its just breaking above this blue line in this pic now on a bigger bar which lends power to the bullish take but it also makes it cheaper to short for the close of asia hours.

Short on weakness is my brief idea not stand in front of a freight train, I can wait while we check the difference 

Thats conjecture, the two are responding to the same effect not linked directly as they describe completely separate things.    Most likely stocks fell in some response to perceptions on Dollar strength and interest rate rises previously and expected in future.   
Some apprehension about recession was also possible for stocks at least.    Bitcoin is also subject to leveraged money I think, this was a large part of the 2017 rise and greater exposure to consumer credit.   With rate rises comes tightening of loose money or hot money which is pushed between assets rising, often this can happen in conjunction.   I dont think BTC is leveraged but its a possible mistake by speculators at times.

Overall BTC is more diversifed then stocks I think due it to being quoted globally in a variety of currencies and exchanges not just one large city and one currency

Every market can be called faked, the entire currency index is debased and inaccurate so its a given but that doesnt alter silver is looking negative

Easiest take on that would be that world growth is not especially strong.   Silver is a difficult play because its requiring industrial growth in many metals use not just silver.   Gold is a fair smarter or easier thing to play as its moving more within its own class, its also subject to net buying for over a decade afaik.    The case for silver as a monetary metal at all is a decade away, its highly speculative so right now its all about its usage growing faster then supply which relates to world GDP I guess.

I dont see anything like silver coins being an asset with utility, crypto or alternate FIAT standards is far more likely a growth area even if Dollar showed its true deficit weakness rather then reflecting politics.
I'm definitely not negative on silver and I have shares in the worlds largest primary producing silver mine but they are also a gold miner.  Its a long game, ten year time scale and that chart is YTD which is like checking yesterdays tv guide for much accuracy in long term direction.
 Dollar Index is interesting, can it put in a lower high because that scenario falling from that high (while feeling negative now) is very bullish for alternatives even silver but crypto I think is benefiting from excessive dollar liquidity
A plain silver mine must be a tough business as oil rose and market price for silver fell which knocks out the production not easily obtained or mined in conjunction with other minerals
Consider BHP for a silver hold (10th +9th biggest silver mine), they are far more diversified including oil, silver and can afford to pay a dividend for those ten years of waiting for a turn in the tide.


I was waiting on BTC for someone to tell me the news relating to price movement.    The fact its a big bar that has us breaking upwards is correct, its a break of some trend resistance.   In fact its replaying the previous sell off and we must test the highs again I guess

Nobody here is cursed with the burden Warren Buffet must carry daily which is the task of investing 40 billion or more and getting a good price to buy with returns above normal.     To invest giant amounts and still find value is not easy to do.  
One of his quotes also is he would love be less then millionaire because he could he could at least quadruple his worth in a few years just by quick investing in many things he knows is too cheap.  Being small is a great advantage, the relevance to Bitcoin is the amount of growth is far beyond normal enterprise and its to do with engaging the very smallest elements of business done world wide I think.     These things are opposite to Buffet, he can find no worth in Bitcoin and praises government bond policies that result in 1 or 2% interest rates.   The trillion dollar movements of debt shifting around is useful to him, the game of marbles that is bitcoin is not.
The endless debt policies will eventually bankrupt any country that operates that way but he has a personal bias to praise that effect, I do think some of his venom for Bitcoin is that he can find no purpose to it and maybe thats because its not built to serve the largest entities, every person is biased to their own view of the world and he is no different.

Excluding tech which Buffet admits is a blind spot to him, just holding gold investments for the last two decades would have out performed any expertise Buffet has managed to apply.    My lesson from Buffet would be know your own game, you dont have to know every game but make sure you are certain of your own

What about the futures market for Bitcoin, there must be some immense players on there who are willing to take out giant bets on the price falling because crypto is so alien to them and in their opinion worth nothing at all hence no risk to sell off massive amounts.     If we have leveraged players like that available it means they must rush to place the contract into the real exchange, perhaps placing it immediately is less dangerous to them then doing so carefully over a long time period


The more you have, the more there is to lose in being wrong.   I'm not sure I want that worry every time I go through the day or try to sleep knowing I bet BTC to go down so much.     I think crypto will defeat the whales eventually so long as its used by and is useful to the people around the world.   Global natural holding and use of BTC will create bigger waves then even a giant whale can swallow

Yea I agree with that, you have to go off the first opening globally for normal business hours.   So thats roughly Tokyo or Nikkei opening hours, thats still quite early on Sunday for alot of the world but thats Monday for them.   Hence the potential sell off and reaction to news.

There might be some anticipation occurring in prior hours but I think its mostly around Nikkei opening any phase change or bearish effect.

Right now I'll take it moving positive so long as we keep the 8 day average or higher -

I was expecting it to drop back to 7200 area but also now I would guess further weakness of sorts until direction is decided.   There is always some selling following a streak of rises from speculators who just dont want to wait beyond that brief time period.
So that amount of selling must be included in the cycle.    My guess is while we are under the 8 day average, that its best to be on guard price wise.   The weekend has its own meta so I dont expect much of a move till later on Sunday.

Very briefly I want it above this blue line for me to be positive on price near term.   Longer term its been doing ok for a while now, very rapid just recently and its positive to pull back a bit.



So this average keeps rising a while yet, say 7500 and above and I go bullish rather then wait and see mode.   I'm not negative as seen previously going sideways even while 'submerged' in this way was shown as strength but as we only just came down I can wait a while to take a better guess


Iam not fully conversant in that particular meme species but I think you got it roughly 

This question is really old but still valid to ask I guess, Bitcoin has to be used spent and circulated to really be of worth.   I think this is known as monetary velocity and it helps to create value.   The very origins of Bitcoin were a token which until exchanged for a pizza had no idea of worth exactly only potential in that secure transaction.

We've come a long way and the price rose alot but I still go back to the usage, if people didnt spend and agree to an exchange and price then its not accumulating into this little eco system we have.  Nothing wrong with spending, buy on the lows as well and its all good.    I hold a little bit of worth in many asset types and I dont see using any of them to fund a bill as bad really

It fell 8000 to 6600 quite quickly I saw and there was a reason for this being that 7800 is a support area and was lost.    The 7200 area is the next step where price must decide direction, I have this as the 8 day moving average and once we are below this it will be a more of a bearish phase for the short to medium term.



I havent yet decided what the objective downside for losing 7200 area would be but roughly about 6600.   The main point about profit taking or trading is to pick the highs and low to rebuy again, right now I think 7200 is the high till it can prove it will stay as an area of support.    Longer term the 200 day average is moving up so we are not really negative at all

So this happened pretty fast, as Asia trading opened we failed in efforts to break up and traded below 7800 before falling to 7200 area which is the trading objective for this support failing.   7200 is an old stronger trading line and is being bought.
Theres a great big pin going down to 6600 which closed the hour back above 7200 which is the important part for predicting future movement.   I dont have any immediate responce for what it will do next but likely market needs to digest this move and decide on this 7200 area short vs longer term.  Longer term pricing, daily and weekly bars are always stronger

Great point, it just simply comes down to supply and demand.     My bullish take on BTC is simply that is something unique in the spectrum of fiance products that people can hold and exchange, it has a unique purpose and utility online that is not duplicate to FIAT or gold etc

Its not just the dollar.   The dollar is part of the global reserve system and that whole body of exchange between countries is based off credit and debt with influence from politics.     The far older system was a method of exchanging goods and currency was most gold based which is a commodity so it was not especially liable to credit as the base unit must at some point be exchanged.

Our current system allows countries to just endlessly produce more of their debt to exchange for goods, the value of that debt is questionable especially where its never repaid.

To switch over to Bitcoin it would require not just an end to the dollar but the whole system of debt as money.  It would require that actual trade is the basis for world currency and exchange between countries.   Thats a far bigger change then just swapping dollar for another similar named type of paper.   What I think happens next is that dollar goes and we have another FIAT paper system replace it, possibly it will include a bailout of the US debt that was not repayable otherwise.    
This would not be new it would just be similar to the Greek bailout but on a larger scale.   So at first I expect a repeat of the past, then if that fails we might get something new.   Bitcoin has alot to prove to be a bigger replacement rather just a side road off main street

Oh I think the spikes can be high, I dont doubt the power but the reason the shape of the move is a spike is that its sudden and sharp upwards.   It can reverse as it draws in alot of speculators more then users who have the reasoning to hold on overnight and into weeks to use the BTC on whatever their interest is etc.
It'll build a base much stronger long term if we can spiral upwards like a staircase more then a spike.    I prefer people posting doubts while we gain on a more monthly type basis

I do not normally use this measure, this is the 2 day moving average.    Its obviously short term momentum and subject to being passed but I'd like to see if this now acts as a container to the price and we see weakness as we slip below this.   Possibly we can regain here, I'm watching and normally take the 8 day as more indicative of a phase to price direction up or downwards

8 day MA is 7200 and this is my first target downside for a quick trade on this 8000 area failing to solidify as support.   Some disappointment might form and we get some sell for now

We got a big bar on April 2nd after staging above the 4000 area just beforehand, so it was being held back but also bullish at that time.

Poll was bullish so correct -




Right now I got another line in the sand to draw which is about 7800.    So trading below here would help break this upper formation in the price.    If we can hold 7800 as an area of support then it might keep trying to break upwards past 8200.
Looking for direction out of this box or range of recent prices.


I will reset the poll again for votes which way we break




So here the april 2nd price held as bullish support

Theres alot more air in the price above 8000 basically.   I chopped off the rest to show the price action going back to November 2018 and forwards weekly.   So the price moved fast, someone posted something like 49 days after price pass **** we reach 20,000 and thats basically how it went last time.
So people expect some repeat of that now I suppose but I think it will not do the same exactly but theres space in the chart history, much easier then previous pricing.


The break above 6000 is significant enough to make alot of people think we can now run to the old range of 2018 which would probably include ideas of 10 or 12,000

Put a chart on weekly bars and it'll show up longer term objectives like this and I think that 6000 area is pivotal though I'm not sure we go straight up higher, I always thought it should take the entire term of 2019 but perhaps time is speeding up as we enter a next phase.   I'd like to hear more about news and volume behind this latest rise to really be more sure of apparent confidence in the market and if it might last longer

Theres gigantic irony in that hard fact that goes a long way to describe the current backdrop to alternate blockchains to Bitcoin, credibility counts considerably.   Hopefully good ideas can still make it through

Definitely a link but as an observer, not someone close to leveraged into absolute losses

The answer is no.   My own perspective it was evolved via things like PGP which was over a decade before, way more then one year of process and that history is already known and discussed and even part of this forums content if finding a few famous threads.
The people who lost most in 2008 and I was on the markets myself at the time and holding bank shares I must admit (I did also short index but yea  ), were leveraged beyond their capacity to pay.    Most obviously it involved home owners, not long term owners as much people who had become reliant on the situation just prior to the bust.   So those who had debt built in the 5 or so years prior to 2007 onwards who could not then afford the unfixed variable rates or justify the large amounts they had borrowed.
   The really simple evaluation of price inaccuracy at that time is the price or cost to service debt exceeded the yield or rental value of that housing.    If it weren't for that, other buyers at some level of pricing will take from those who sell, so it really was a bubble.   I dont see Satoshi was part of that market delusion unless they were forced into that debt and I dont think so because anyone who can derive the workings behind the blockchain can also summarise rental costs vs a ten year moving average of interest rate costs of debt.   Just simple cold thinking would have removed that decision to own more debt as sensible.

It wouldn't make sense to do so well in one well weighted algorithm but to fall foul of an observable bad risk.   Even a normal mortage is debt that should be repaid asap because of compound interest, thats the sensible but boring route.   The market itself takes bad risks on because its funded on highly liquid leveraged money pretty much and at this time the ultimate reason was government backing to the debt which has become something ridiculous like 90% of housing debt is now backed by government.   There was a kind of false arbitrage, this was not a result of a free market and a normal bust falls over much sooner without support

Buy into the rise is more sensible, everyone is guessing when they try to describe the price.   Not that I discourage various charting and methods of prediction and they can add accuracy but nobody actually knows.   The safest thing Ive been told of is to buy into a series of regular rises, on this little time frame that works and on the larger time frame I think more work is needed still but Im a pessimist in general

That'd be awful scenario.   Without a mix of buyers and sellers we get unstable price distribution, the only real safe way for price to build higher like skyscraper is gradually with foundations and much revision at each price.    So we have to go back at least some to check price on the way up