My grandmother can tell you the exact the same thing. I bet my house that btc price in 10 years will be higher than today, but what is the point of holding bitcoin from 20k all the way to 3k for a whole year or 2? did Max not sell his btc before the fall? i doubt it! , does he care about my portfolio or yours? no he does not !.

regardless of these analysts intentions, they always tend to mislead the masses. only a few of them warned about the fall, charlee lee was one of the honest people who warned everybody about LTC going back to 20$ from its ATH. most of the other  influencers kept talking about their 50k and 500k for btc , poor folks kept buying BTC only to see it dropping, while the whales doing their thing, those who bought for 1 btc for 15k and still waiting for 50k  while could have bought more than 4 btc at today's price.

long story short, you can't ignore the near future possible prices and keep calling for MOON that could be YEARS far.

not sure what you are trying to imply here, the point of pointing further support lines is simply trying to predict a potential reversal area should the next near support fails.

I gotta say I love these calculations. hats down !

but there are 2 points that might play a big role in affecting the predictions.

1- the S11/S15/T15 .
these machines run about 40% to 70% more efficient than the S9s. indeed they will not make a 70% change in the calculation but soon enough tons of them will be up and running.

2- I have some good contacts with some bulk asic suppliers in China mainland, there are S9s by the tons that have been shut down, packed and waiting for a buyer. they are selling as low as 125$ with PSU ! .

one of the suppliers i know sold well over 7000*s9s a few days ago "Free On Board". ! which makes me think , somebody somewhere who is not in china have access to cheaper power and is about to start plugging back those S9s !.

now of course this could be a group of stupid rich kids who just heard about mining and are entering a business that will make 0 profit for them as many others do. but the scrary part of point 2 is the price ! a second hand s9 with PSU for 125$ is tempting! it can attract many investors to buy and keep the difficulty up.

again they could be buying them only because they are cheap and they waiting for a bounce in BTC price to start mining, but what are the odds than anybody would do this?

I know 7000 s9s are not a big deal, but the overall second hand market for asics in china will do just fine, they will keep dropping the price until they get rid of them, regardless of whether the buyer's business plan is successful or not. many if not most of the almost 1 million s9s that have been shut down can possibility return to service.

I do hope i am wrong and whatever thoughts i am having now are nothing but the result of eating to much lamb earlier.

what diff is 299.0 ?

well then start by running them at stock freq to eliminate that option. also check the pools. try using something different, switch PSUs !

also one thing I noticed about electronics in general that you most likely will never find 2 identical , let alone the poor quality control in these Asics, so everything could be really different for GOD knows why. I have some asics from same batches, same cooling, same fan speed and same about everything yet they still have different temps, different hashrate, some need restarts every now and then, some have been on for months with 0 problems. this is just the way it works !

what exactly those higher lows that have never been broken?  there were higher lows by the tons that have been broken , and yet more will likely fall too.

I understand your point, but i have to disagree ( use cases, transactional ecosystem) have minimum affects on prices.

proof is, most of us are now waiting for ETF , and Nasdaq btc futures to bring the attention of investors to then raise the price, how on earth will ETF improve BTC itself?

the point that you do not seem to understand is that  investors buy just about everything to sell it for a higher price and not because they like it or they think it has a use case. if you look around you will find many things that are worth much more than their real value. but it's just the way the world works, demand increases price and that's all about it.

again i do not understand how difficult is it for everyone to see that Fundamentals as of today are much better than they were last December while price is 80% lower. this fact goes exactly against your claim that "( fundamentals underlie the market, creating demand)"

5% up from 35% down is not a recovery , it's nothing but a minor correction. the recover will be a few huge green candles and a close above the strong resistance at 6k. these are dead cats bounces and great chances to sell. any how, the 3600-3700 support is rather strong and more like the last resort before another large dip. so let's wait and see.

yes fundamentals are almost not important at all, this is not my own conclusion. if fundamentals are important then why did bitcoin rised from 3k to 20k ? was there any mass adoption ? any etfs? any real contribution to the world? NONE ! people got into bitcoin based on the rising price and only to make profit. the fundamentals have been positive for the past a few months ,more awareness, more adoption , rumors about ETF and almost everyone and their grandmother's learned about bitcoin, yet the price kept falling. investors do not care about fundamentals, they want to buy something they can sell for profit in the next day / week / month or year.

you tell someone to buy btc at 3k only to sell it for 1k while the fundamentals are all looking great ! nobody will buy it. tell them that btc is going no were and it's a bubble with no real use for the world but they will be able to sell it for 10k , they sure as hell will buy it.

as for the volume i could care less, for all i know price moves and respect major support/resistance lines. if you disagree then go ahead and post your chart showing us how will price react to volume.



indeed TA is not a crystal ball that will tell you exactly everything about the future, but it's funny to think that 1k is not possible, if btc fell from 20k to 3.5 why would 1k or even 500$ be impossible? where are down over 80% from ATH, another 10% or 15% from ATH is nothing much. i am not saying we are diffently going there, but it is very possible.

2900$ is the last support that could very likely not hold, and should it not then we can easily go to 3 digits again.

you are right, by zooming out to the weekly chart, things do look worse

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5080235.new#new
yup the previous support that held for a whole year will be the worst Resistance for the bulls. the selling pressure around 5.5-6k will be stupidly high. only some major good news can beat it.

Looking at BTC-USD on the weekly chart i came to see yet another potentially worse scenario ahead !






However there is some GOOD news here!

the 2900-3600 is rather a very strong support zone as seems to be on the weekly chart.

So there is a good chance that this may be the end of the bear trend,even though the 2900$ seems to be the most reliable bottom within this green support zone but anything from TOP to BOTTOM of this zone is actually a good support on the weekly trend. but the good news are unlikely to play out ! sadly !

The bad news is !, there is almost no sort of any support beneath this 2900$-3600$.

The nearest support area that we can count on would be 950$ to 1350$ .  WTF 

There is however a minor support at 1900$ but that support was only tested once as a part of a small correction during the last bull run in July 2017.

now some might argue and say I am crazy to even think that we can actually go to prices this low, but really this is the disadvantage of a bull run that did not stop to make mark any support on it's way. easy come easy go !

in this topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

i mentioned about the importance of breaking the 5800-6000 levels , and to most traders it was a clear sign of going short as there was no sign of support for at least 30% down the way. and BTC did actually drop 36% from there.

again breaking the 2900$ support could easily do another -35% or in fact well over -50% should the weak support at 1900$ fail to hold ( very likely ) and take us straight to 950$-1350$.


so long story short, the bulls need to defend this green support area as this will be their last resort before another collapse in price, which indeed won't be over night, and could take months to actually get there.

the bright side however from a TA point of view, that the easier it comes the easier it goes.,with these fast dips, we are creating less resistance points on the way back up ( in the future). the sharp fall from 5800 to 3600 created no serious resistance, so it won't be much of a surprise to see a single candle shoot from 4k to 5.5k which is unlikely of course giving the nature of the current bear trend.

now this is from a technical point of view.

Taking the fundamental part of it, it does not look less miserable.

if you have to name a working business that uses bitcoin and is generating any sort of considerable income, then i could be wrong. aside from Exchanges and Mining Hardware manufacturers the use case of Bitcoin is still very limited and way far from deserving a market of 800 billion $. taking the whole crypto market in the picture, what has any crypto currency done to the world yet ? 99% of it is either a scam coin or nothing but a copy-paste token with a better looking whitepaper.

to me , the fundamental aspect is less important, because what took btc to 20k was not the fundamentals but rather the technical, it was the greed, people look at the chart to see an insanely rising trend, kept jumping on to make money , rising the price and that's all about it.

now the way I look at the bigger picture of any new market is that, the rich / the whales or whatever you name them have to make the most of it. there is noway they will let all the geeks who out of passion bought thousands of BTCs for almost no price to become millionaires just like that. despite the vision of bitcoin, it will never set people free the way many people think. you need to suffer to be set free, it won't be as easy as you think it is. the whales need to take every single BTC they can from you before they can approve the market and allow it grow into a trillion $ market.

as long as we still call 3k to be bottom then it most likely won't be, since we are physiologically prepared for this point, so many of us are not panicking and still holding to our coins, they will still try to make it look worse, put you in a position where you really start to think BTC is going to 0, once that happen then moon comes.

now again this all could be wrong, maybe at this price the majority of the holders are not willing to sell anymore and the whales do not have a magic stick to force it , and if that's the case then we could moon up from here. but really what are the odds?

to me i take TA very seriously,its been working just fine for me, i do not sit there desperately waiting for moon when the price is collapsing , I do not cash out any profit from trading unless i need to , the plan is to get more BTCs  by selling every possible chance and buying at a lower price. so this is no FUD what so ever. if you are a trader, then you might need to start thinking of the possible scenarios ahead, be ready to act accordingly , try to get as much BTC as you can, so that in 5 years time you can quite your boring job and live free.

this bear scenario only ends with a daily candle closing above at least 7500$ , anything aside from that will be nothing but bull traps for the poor to fall in. remember there will always be good chances to go low. if you think the price is still going down and you are afraid to miss the bottom entry then you will be rekt. however if you are accumulating bitcoin only to sell it 5-10 years from now then you should not worry about 50% decline because it is only minor for long term.

This is not a financial advice what so ever, do whatever the fudge you want to do with your own money.
 

and , Good luck !

i think you have tried every possible solution that i could suggest to you. now what's left to try a custom firmware like this one > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4513567.0

please do your own research on this firmware, i have not tested it and i don't know anything about it except for the fact that the dev claims this can run without fans attached


also another thing that i remember one guy mentioned about was cutting the fan blades to reduce the resistance for the cooling fluid, you may keep this as last resort should everything else fails!

if we fail to break 3600 this time, i would only think that we need a re-test of the upper 5k area (5.5 to 5.8k) or at least 5k before making a much lower low on the next dip.

am keeping an eye on the 4500 now, a break above, retest, i will get greedy and enter long for to 5.5k target. ( unlikely to happen but if this, i'll take it ).
also keeping aneye on the coming support area, 3.6k , wanting to see a reversal candle to go long, or a break out to go short.

there are a few possibilities that one can safely trade at current situation. just gotta be sharp and stick to SL because this market can do 20% up or down. in a second.

I do not want to accuse you for anything ! . but i will give you a free advice, i personally have no interest in your deal ! , i do not have the capital to even consider it 

But ! . for someone to even start thinking of sending that much money to the other side of the planet, they need to see some solid proofs.

maybe start by uploading a video where you mentioned your bitcointalk username, take a tour around and in the farm. show them that this thing does exist, only then it will be worthy of someone's time to take a 10 or 20 hrs flight to meet you in person.

with btc prices being this low, to most people it makes more sense to buy bitcoin rather than buying an ASIC . in solo mining every ASIC you buy is a liability, unless you have free power.

this could be a never ending discussion, everyone should think wisely before attempting to invest in anything mining related now. the game has changed. sadly 2017 is long gone.

if you are buying for the long run then its good to stat buying every dip, finding a perfect bottom is nearly impossible.

it is all about price action. if you look at the chart , from 5.5k to 4.7k there is absolutely no sort of any Resistance. if anything TA wise its a fast run zone especially from 5k to 5.5k.

again this is all just wishful thinking, price did drop of the green support line and took a nice dip, took my short and waiting to go long from 3650-3700 if i see a price rejection there. on the other side 3970 is my SL for the short position ( , if we close above it , i will remain neutral.) and wait for the next signal.

Ideally, i want to see a break below the 3600$ for a potentioal test of the 2.7-3k area which i do believe to be a strong bull zone and probably the bottom of this down trend. the sooner we get there the better. but what i think is going to actually happen is nothing but a ranging trend from 3k to 6k for probably a few months. this will be a nightmare for the moon boys but would carry a lot of trading chances. we just need to find a bottom of this trend for now, so we can hide our SL below that so-called bottom.

a zoom in the charts, for those who are interested in smaller time frames > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5079220.new#new

so overall , i am still bearish on btc. but i am trying to look for every possible chance to trade this market , be it short or long.!




looking at the 4hr chart, btc is creating lower-highs and higher-lows. and right now setting between a support trend (green), and a resistance trend ( red dotted).
the down trend is just a minor one, breaking it will take us to test 4467 area, breaking the green support trend line is a free ticket to rekt city for the bulls.

anyhow a long story short.  the green lines/trend lines are support area. the reds are Resistance. and you know the drill.

for me I am looking for these 2 options to trade.

1 > breaking the green support line to go short and target the lower support lines
2 > breaking 4700$ up to go long because that could be an easy trip to 5.4k to 5.5k.


this is just a zoom in the overall bearish prospective that can be found here > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883

I chose to use Google Chrome. it is different from being forced to use something I do not like. you don't get the point, people will still sue bitmain for the fact that their asics ran a few minutes/seconds on someone else's account , be it UNICEF or even the devil, it makes no difference. they will always have a way to complain. the only way would be for bitmain to manually turn on every Asic and pre-config each client's worker after the buyer sends his worker details after payment ( which is impossible to be done), then people will not be silly enough to file a lawsuit. a side from that they will always complain and nag about the silliest things.

I hate bitmain probably as much as anybody else, i am not defending them by any means, but they really have them selves covered really will. they have the best lawyers and they know what they are doing. if anything this is nothing but a waste of time, nobody will win against bitmain in court for something like that. for all we know bitmain can simply deny they own the default worker and that it is randomly generated. unlike us the Judge has not been screwed by bitmian ever, he or she needs to judge according to solid facts and evidence.