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7681  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Playable Alpha: USD/BTC binary options market on: March 27, 2013, 12:44:23 PM
Makes sense. It did look very interesting.

We're in the process of offering automatic binary options on major currency pairs over different time periods, and working on a way to offer BTC/XXX pairs too. Trying to avoid the user having to create an account in order to buy the option. In addition, we've tried BTC/USD fairly successfully but to offer a good real-time price, we are having to pull from multiple exchanges and they're pretty patchy at times in terms of connectivity. Right now we're working out a way to produce our own price that uses all the data from all of the exchanges... while still having integrity.

Any thoughts?

Our approach to handing this would be incorporating the Mt.Gox trading engine lag into our odds-calculating engine. If there is no connectivity, our engine would add an extra safety margin to all bets. The user would barely notice it if the lag is less than 1 minute. With a longer lag, all odds would get worse, enabling to continue betting but mitigating our risk. Nobody would be able to game the system, because the spread would get bigger in both ends. Once the peace is restored in the market, and the trading data feed looks normal again, the extra margins will be taken away.
7682  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 11:55:20 AM
Well, after waking up to see the price at $87 I thought that maybe, maybe we might have to slow down a bit.  This is an incorrect assumption.

Bids are STILL about 9.5mil USD while asks are below 50k BTC.  These indicators have remained unchanged throughout this burst.

The rally is actually incredibly muted, for the reason that there exists an unbelievable flock of sheep-bears, who don't know math, and are willing to sell after every tick up. If they believe it is a great idea to sell <$100, it may take until next week before we see it. Friday is bank holiday in Europe, so the peak for a week should definitely come tomorrow.
7683  Economy / Speculation / Re: How do Europeans really feel about what happened in Cyprus? on: March 27, 2013, 11:52:24 AM
Finland, didn't talk to many so can't really say for the others. I believe most people would rather side with the taxpayers and think that it is the better, the less we have to pay.

I feel that this is a warning and took physical delivery of all my Euro balances yesterday. Now I've posted a sign if there is anyone willing to convert them to bitcoins. I know there are bitcoin-wealthy people in Finland..
7684  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 11:48:40 AM
Thank you for filling my EUR 65/BTC, even though I don't see why you want to sell for cheap!

That's quite a bargain at the moment

It was a gift from God. Just have a look on the chart, the price dipped from 69->64.5->69 for less than 10 minutes!

Thank you for € 352!  Grin
7685  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 11:19:49 AM
Thank you for filling my EUR 65/BTC, even though I don't see why you want to sell for cheap!
7686  Economy / Speculation / If you want the greatest % of the bitcoins and cost is not an issue on: March 27, 2013, 10:53:06 AM
...what would you do?

As a primer, see how the money lords cornered the world's supply of the then monetary metal, gold, in 1860-70s, while sacking silver.
7687  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will we hit 100 today (Wed 27th of March) ? on: March 27, 2013, 10:15:17 AM
I also hope we will make an global agreement of displaying Bitcoin not in BTC anymore but mBTC.
This will make it more attracting for new comers.

This x1000. 100$/BTC really scares off small investors.

While it is good idea, it will also create another confusion and mistakes where people start sending btc insead mbtc and vice versa, which could scare them off even more Smiley

For most of the new entrants, sending 1000 BTC instead of 1000mBTC will not be on option,  Wink
7688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 10:13:34 AM
In the grand scheme of things this run from the teens to ~$90 will appear very short lived and ridiculously bubble-ish.  Years from now at the bottom of the coming correction we'll all recognize how absurd it is that BTC traded at this level.

Make it "to about $100", so it will be more appropriate to talk about "the grand scheme of things"  Cheesy
7689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 09:04:08 AM
All European Banks closed on Friday AND Monday (scheduled):

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/holidays.en.html

BUT...On Friday it is pay day + the recent drama in eurozone....

Go figure!

FUD.... maybe they will take the opportunity to never open again  Shocked
7690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 27, 2013, 07:38:18 AM
"Bitcoins are fascinating, for mathematicians, economists, traders, investors, politicians, regulators, and anarchists. And while watching the currency develop is entertaining, the experimental currency is no place for serious investing given the risk versus reward. Attempting to trade in established currencies is difficult enough."

I could have lived with it if they had said 'the experimental currency is no place for serious investing given the risk ', wouldn't have agreed, but that would be ok.

But 'risk versus reward'?  Seriously dudes?  Guess that makes the writer a smarter investor than the rest of us here, who just happen to have had a pretty decent reward these past couple of months  Grin .

Yeah. Nobody has yet refuted the scenario analysis of mine (and countless others), which evaluates to $500, $1000, $2000 or $5000 present value, all time preferences and risks considered. As long as the present price << present value, there is no bubble and the rise may continue. The writer is smartass enough to maybe have $50,000 in assets. We can give him a tip of BTC0.0001 ten years down the road, while he is dreaming of the lifestyle BTC500 could have bought him if he had acted on time.



7691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 09:01:57 PM
Moved to the bigger walls now. It also looks like a triangle is forming. At times I wonder if the Wallmaker actually attempts to manufacture triangles by creating and altering massive walls on the bids and asks. Moving the walls tighter and tighter as needed.

How many entities do you believe are able to show a BTC10-15k wall? How many actually do it? Single or multiple manipulators?
7692  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 07:44:21 PM
If this is compounded over the remainder of this calendar year, one bitcoin will not be worth more than $ 92,807 in Dec 31st.

Oh for fucks sake. That's it! I'm leaving... nothing moves in Bitcoin any more.

*goes look for other asset to swap his coins for*

Anyone want to sell some wall posts for bitcoin?

Buy some more silver from me!  Grin At least it is doing as well as an ECG (EKG auf deutsch) of a dead person measured in Federal Reserve Dollars...
7693  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Playable Alpha: USD/BTC binary options market on: March 26, 2013, 07:36:27 PM
How did you get on with your trial?

The manual trial showed that the basic concept is functioning. We lost about 10% (the average payout 110%), because of the bonus. Otherwise we would have shown profit. The trial is suspended and we are evaluating the existing platforms for some code we could use and/or partner with.

At present it seems that April is too early for us. The rise in bitcoin price is draining our resources because we have also other things to do...
7694  Economy / Goods / Re: 1OZ SILVER MAPLE LEAF / CHECK BEST PRICE IN OP on: March 26, 2013, 07:32:28 PM
One way would be to have the sender sign a message with the private key of the origin address.

How many % can do this? I cannot  Cheesy

I was more like thinking: "take a random number 1-999 and PM it to me before you pay. Add that number of satoshi to your transaction to prove you sent it".



I believe the "correct" way to do this is to generate a new public address for the transaction (though presumably you could reuse old ones). Though if your method is working, why mess with success?

I cannot manually issue such an address if I am not online, and the automatic issuance incurs a one-time investment of my time and/or money and/or risk. I can sell cheaper this way. All transactions are now public and visible which increases trust as people can see exactly how much I have sold via this method, and that I am in no dire need of bitcoins as they are all sitting there Smiley

By the way my sales are currently BTC1400 annualized, that is more than $100k  Grin
7695  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk Wisdom Prize on: March 26, 2013, 07:27:52 PM
The talk in this forum is so diverse in topics, it would not be easy to put all in the same category. I'm thinking at least the following categories:

- Bitcoin technical
- Economics

These are very different animals. I can easily make up more categories, but i would need some feedback before posting such as suggestions.

Personally I know a lot more about Economics, but I have an interest of the other also. This prize would help me a lot in searching for the gems of that side of Bitcoin.

One idea would be to give the prize to a certain person, and not weekly but monthly. This would give more credence to the prize and to the people. It would allow for a longer deliberation period.
7696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 06:49:30 PM
Bitstamp is still bullish - BTC300 bracket is at $77-$85, pointing to an expected future price of $81.
7697  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk Wisdom Prize on: March 26, 2013, 06:46:26 PM
I clocked that posts are at this time of the day coming at a rate of 4 new posts per minute, so I really think there is a need for this kind of selection. One literally can not read all that is posted!  Cheesy
7698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 26, 2013, 06:39:36 PM
Last week this 6-hour slot scored +6.7%. Now the same would be about $82.69  Cool

1:28 to go...

I am so sorry to inform you that despite my expectations, and the good will of the people participating this thread, and the heroic efforts of the traders in MtG online exchange,

The six hour slot had a payout of only 0.645% plus the principal.

So, I must conclude that the rally is over. After all, at the measly quarterdaily rate, the daily increase is only 2.60%, the weekly is a mere 19.7%, which leads to barely a double (+116%) in a month.

If this is compounded over the remainder of this calendar year, one bitcoin will not be worth more than $ 92,807 in Dec 31st.

As we are obviously all doomed, we might as well SELL; SELL, SELL!!!!!11
7699  Economy / Goods / Re: 1OZ SILVER MAPLE LEAF / CHECK BEST PRICE IN OP on: March 26, 2013, 06:25:15 PM
Just got my 2 coins today.
Great packaging, included invoice, etc.
Trying to find the will to take some pics.


Don't force the will  Wink
7700  Other / Meta / Re: Get Donator status by donating 10 BTC on: March 26, 2013, 06:24:25 PM
Do new donator statuses take into account that it only cost about $10 to $20 for some of the older donators to get their current status, and it would currently take about $800 for current people to buy the same status? One can just as easilly argue the opposite of what was proposed, that NOT lowering the price of a donator status is unfair to all the newcommers as opposed to being unfair to those who donated previously.
Not that I plan to donate; just my 0.0002BTC

Exactly my thinking. Very unfair.

Welcome to life!

Life should be fair, and anything that makes it not so should be eradicated.

I said a long time ago that the prices would remain the same, so I can't change this policy now in any case.

Actually, you can. There's nothing stopping you.

Do you come on the forums just to try and cause arguments?

No, it just sort of happens (on almost every forum I go on) unfortunately Sad

I definitely encourage you to pay exactly BTC10 for your Donator tag, can't you see how well it suits me?  Cheesy

Oh, and are you willing to send me BTC10 so I can donate Wink

Seriously, 15 year olds don't really have much of an income Wink

I find it funny you want to donate away money that you don't have  Cheesy

Try joining a political party!  Grin
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