With all the speculators on this forum claiming to have sold out waiting for 50, it was pretty obvious we weren't going anywhere near there (barring a major news event that causes a fundamental price re-eval). But the prevailing bearish sentiment is still pushing the price down. But at the same time, China is still building demand and it looks like the USG has completed its roundup of non-compliant sites... Soon we will be in a situation where the incumbent speculators are going to be fighting the newcomers for coins  . But is today's breakout the beginning? Take a look at the volume for the past week and note the transition from sell-to-buy, starting right after the dump from 110: http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv |
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without references to ancient articles disparaging the internet this spoof lacks backbone and believability.
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Hi bytemaster, A few questions (quotes from the whitepaper): When someone shorts crypto-Gold and posts two or more times
the value of that crypto-Gold as collateral and the dividends from that collateral are paid
to those who hold crypto-Gold. As a result, the short-seller incurs an opportunity cost
proportional to twice the value of their position and the owner of crypto-Gold is receiving
twice the dividend rate as those who hold BitShares. As a result, holding a short
position has carrying costs that ultimately encourage covering and taking a long-position
pays extra dividends to compensate for risk. So why would anyone ever short (create) crypto-X currency? Connecting Gold to Crypto-Gold Price
All market participants have something to gain if a common understanding can be
reached that crypto-Gold is an IOU for a 1oz gold coin. However, initially there will be
no ‘trust’ in what crypto-Gold actually means. As a result market participants will start
out placing orders with a wide spread. As the market depth increases the spread will
also decrease until a price is reached that has market consensus and is near parity with
gold. This is just stating your opinion that convergence will happen. I think that you essentially believe that crypto-Gold per BS will converge to be near Gold per BS because people want a crypto-Gold. But I believe that for convergence to happen you must have a force within the bitshares system that drives the price of crypto-Gold towards that of Gold. Is there this force (did I miss it)? Given the 2x backing requirements, wouldn't the value of crypto-Gold be "driven" towards 2oz gold? |
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but it seems velocity is slowing.
Ah you mean Keynesian inflation. Keynesian's don't know what inflation is. If there are 1000 units of something and you create a 1001st, this is inflation whatever happens to the velocity. The only way to deflate would be to reduce the number of outstanding units. Please let me know when they start doing that  i know i know, you will need a phd to respond but that is why im doing it.
Nearly there, but not in economics  we are in crazy times, but if some guy prints up money at 100% a year but keeps 110% of new money created in a safe, that is deflation (or at least the effects of deflation). No way. This scenario is (hyper)inflation. I don't care he keeps it in a locked shares, the fact is it exists and can be employed without restriction. If I used to own 1% of all outstanding money I would only own 0.5% after the first year followed by 0.25%, 0.125%, 0.062%. Assuming the real economy you own a portion of slows at a slower rate (which it will, 100% is unbeatable by the entire economy on practically any time-scale) your buying power lowers and lowers because the asset you're holding is inflated away. It could have the short term effects of deflation btw. But who cares, I want long term buying power, not just tomorrow. you fail econ 101. :/ well maybe not 101 but econ something. if the money created does not get into the "real economy" the price of things you have to deal with (buy) will not go up. But it will move into the real economy... and when it does it won't be pretty. |
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Is SLV decoupling? Kitco showing 21.65...
Also its pretty hard to read the graphs you post & I'm on a "traditional" computer. This may be why nobody's commenting. Maybe fool with the font sizes or just describe the graph at the top so we don't have to try to read it in the image.
Thx!
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EDIT: Realistically, the overall best investment for anyone here (or elsewhere) would actually be to start large scale ASIC mining farm, given we are paying 1/8 the electricity costs. But you would have to be very very very lucky to a) get an avalon unit (at it's official price, not the 10-20x resell price they are going for) and b) smuggle them from the US to Arg.
Actually it would be much easier to just offer some services on the web, accepting bitcoins as a payment. Well somewhat... I'm not so sure tho. Setting up capital and doing an investement is not quite the same as running a services company (which I do actually, I'm a dev like many other people in the btc world). There is a LOT more work, there are lots of legal issues (if I want my company to stay within the legal bounds, pay taxes, etc) and last but not least, if I want your btc for it, I'm competing with the hordes of Indian and asian outsourcing companies. The have huge working forces, can also arbitrage the usd / local currency, and overall drive all prices down. I think he's suggesting you do it in the "blue" market at least until you earn a nontrivial amount of BTC. I think we are seeing why debt-based currencies can become popular quickly. It is very easy to kick-start a currency by loaning it to lots of people... especially if you can just print more if some don't pay back. But for asset based currencies, exporting services/stuff (for BTC in this case) is really the key because nobody wants your pesos. Normally an economic crash would produce a lot of people who are willing to work and export stuff inexpensively -- for less then outsourcing companies in stable economic zones. This one of the reasons countries are inflating their currencies right now -- to offer an export advantage and deter imports. Clearly, this would kick-start internal productivity... So you'd think as a leader in this Argentina would have an advantage. But it is perhaps a very unfortunate effect of certain political/economic systems (generally those with heavy regulations/taxes and tariffs) that they can fall apart slowly and in such a way as to not be able to undersell these other zones until the economic destruction is completed ("completed" can be loosely defined as when the majority of economic activity is unreported). |
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sunday golfer on phone with broker: "its below 100? Great, buy!"
Seriously, you guys read way too much into these things. We've now got whales who don't understand the market depth issuing instructions to people who earn their $ as a percent of price*volume traded, not by profit. Whale says "buy", broker buys and takes his cut. Yes, a "clever" buying scheme could save the whale some $, but potentially at the cost of the broker (if he is unable to buy the full volume with careful bidding).
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But whatever dude. Your shtick is pretty transparent and stupid anyway. Since you asked so nicely and provided such an insightful response I'll tell you exactly what I'm trying to achieve with my "shtick". I don't want Bitcoin to be a reserve currency because that would be too easy for the New York City/District of Criminals financial mafia to control. I want the other 7 billion people in the world to have the same level of direct, censorship-resistant, pseudonymous access to the blockchain that we early adopters currently enjoy. I want Bitcoin to be usable to average people without needing to go through sidechain-managing gatekeeper so that its adoption rapidly spreads internationally beyond any single government's ability to control. 1.4 billion Chinese aren't going to adopt a currency that only supports 200 million transaction per year, to say nothing about the rest of the world. And finally I want my Bitcoin savings to appreciate to the point at which I can afford to get the hell out of this bankrupt, fascistic, warmongering house of cards before it's too late. @ justusranvier, I resonate with a lot of your ideas but I think Peter Todd's limiting the block size to encourage development of a layer of services on top of Bitcoin to address micropayments and day to day transactions , is a good idea. What are your concerns? They won't be "on top" of bitcoin. Best case if bitcoin scalability development stops today is that Bitcoin will become the electronic "gold", the reserve currency. And a new coin will solve the anonymity, blockchain bloat, long confirmation time, and microtransaction problems while simultaneously allowing "native" trust-backed currencies -- aka "colored" coins without the pain. And yes, any layered service is going to want/need its 1% off the top... |
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Operationally, I think you should edit your first post and put the latest rules up there. Also provide a basic summary of the bitshares system & dividend rules before getting into the exchange rules.
Some questions (assuming cUSD crypto-currency that is supposed to track USD):
1. How do you change your collateral? Either due to a falling USD->BS price or a rising one? You should certainly be able to bolster the collateral BS so a liquidation does not occur... and if your collateral value rises tremendously it only seems fair to be able to pull some of it out.
2. How is the price of BS->USD (value of the collateral) determined?
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For that, CV Tokens would work much better, assuming they are possible to implement. (Croesus says he was just anthropomorphising the network to avoid confusing the economic side of things.) I checked out this link, read the first post carefully and skimmed the others. All I see there is wishful thinking along the lines of "AtiP is a particle that repels matter. This is what we could build with it. Whitepaper forthcoming..." Just because you can define it does not mean that you can DO it. |
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Given that bytemaster has offered a bounty for attacks on his exchange system, I'd like to mention briefly here that he has met his commitments on the 10 BTC bounty that he offered for the prior system. I haven't had time to really digest this new system, but in glancing over them I exceeded myself and had what I think is actually a constructive idea so I thought I'd share it: Maybe the system should comprise 2 independent block-chains that none-the-less work together. First, a bid/ask (offer) chain with much lower difficulty (blocks found every minute, say), and a slower chain that handles filled transactions and "normal" block-chain transfers. The advantages are: 1. The complete history of unfilled bid/asks is unimportant. So the bid/ask chain could be checkpointed every few days and old data deleted. 2. The system would be more useful if bids/asks changed faster then the transactions. |
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Paid, please confirm.
Confirmed!!! Thanks for standing by your word! |
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You have self-admitted to essentially throwing out the entire approach and starting anew. That was the point of the bounty... to stop you from going down the wrong street. The point was not that the entire idea is utterly impossible like a perpetual motion machine.
If you want to keep the trust of this community, please pay the bounty and THEN I promise I will examine your new ideas closely (you'll note I already posted a quick positive message about how interesting the approach is) and contribute as best as I can.
But actual payment is essential rather then deferment. I honestly haven't even looked at the details in the offer in your posting, and I won't until the 9.5BTC owed is received.
That type of "re-negotiation" behavior is what rings ponzi alarm bells in people's minds... you don't want that. What you want is me to be able to affirm that you've got the ammo to fund your ideas...
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sounds to me like you are now thinking: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_currency_denominated_accountwhere the "foreign currency" is dollars, gold, etc. and the actual backing account is BitShares (or BTC if you do it centralized). The only way in or out it through the crypto-currency. Pretty interesting... I wonder how well the dollar denominated crypto-currency, i.e. crypto-USD will track the USD. Search these forums for "Goxmoney" -- at times during the bubble people seemed to be willing to pay a premium for "USD" located on Mt Gox as opposed to located somewhere else. Not so much of a premium that is became an issue though. Ask your lawyer if there's some loophole where "dollar-denominated" does not count as actual dollars, therefore (in Canada at least) its all "play-dough" crypto-currencies and so not actually transmitting money... |
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bytemaster, No one can convince anyone of anything... I can only lead you there, but you have to do some thinking on your own. Which you have now done. This is a universal truth. I believe that I led you there so deserve the 10BTC bounty. While there were other posters, I was one of the first and I am the only poster who did not just give up and move on. The second posting I made asked the very question that you now realize is unanswerable "how does USD pricing information enter the system?" -- and other issues that in fact remain unresolved. I write the above in the hopes that you will happily pay me the remaining balance on the 10BTC bounty in full understanding of my efforts. But it is technically irrelevant because you agreed to the following terms of our .25BTC bounty: These payments go towards my claim on the 10BTC bounty. But if you stop the process, you essentially agree that you're abandoning the project and pay me the rest.Go ahead and find the above statement in the the following quoted exchange (bolded) which can be found earlier in this thread. Please do not force some tiresome judge.me process. Meet your commitments honestly. Since you have abandoned the project, but have already paid me .5BTC in bounties, those commitments are 9.5BTC to address 1CKeoT8vBDQDEpMHz5VAswV39pZJ2GTGYd. Best, thezerg Zerg, you haven't convinced me things are unworkable, but you have provided the most challenging and innovative attacks that cause me to put on my thinking cap. Thanks for hanging in on this discussion, send me your BTC address and I will drop you a 0.05 BTC tip for your efforts, you deserve one even though you haven't yet convinced me.
Ok .05 BTC is peanuts so here's my counter-offer. If you truly value my challenging attacks to your system (and you know they DO take a LOT more time to think up then drawing a logo) then pay for them. Every time I show an attack that illustrates any or some combination of: 1. a problem in your system that makes you change a rule or add a new one 2. a way to nearly zero the value of a crypto-currency 3. a way to force minting enough coins that gets me the lions share of the dividends. 4. a way to force crypto-Q to diverge from Q 5. a way to force the system to leave me with more BS and/or crypto-Q then I started with (aka to "make" money). You pay me .25 BTC. If I show attack A, and you modify the rules and I show attack A' which is just slightly different that's 2 attacks. Imagine you're really writing the code, updating it, and releasing it every time, but instead of pwning you, all the coins and millions of dollars, I just get .25 BTC. I post one attack at a time, and do not post another until I receive the .25BTC. If you want to stop the process you must indicate so in this thread before paying me the .25BTC for the prior attack. That way I won't post the next one when you want to quit. These payments go towards my claim on the 10BTC bounty. But if you stop the process, you essentially agree that you're abandoning the project and pay me the rest. But if I run out of ideas, I am not abandoning my claim... because of my previous discussed but not (yet) accepted by you ideas of why its broken. If you obstinately reject one of my attacks, at my option I can "shelve" it for a time when you might recognize it, or I can simply realize that you are not actually willing to pay anything and so cut-my losses and stop posting attacks. If you agree to these terms, please show your appreciation for my blockchain attack and start the games by sending .25BTC to: 1CKeoT8vBDQDEpMHz5VAswV39pZJ2GTGYd Cheers! I will accept your terms because you seem to be very competent at finding things with a few, minor, tweaks to the clauses. 1) I have discussed many rules and sometimes your attacks violate an existing rule or a rule that you did not understand. Pointing this out or clarifying an existing rule shall not count as a new rule. If any other poster on this thread will agree with me that it is not a new rule, then I win, if no one will agree that it is an old-rule that you misunderstood... then you win. 2) Working the system with only transactions between yourself (no other people) is the only way to collect on #5, otherwise you would just be playing the market spreads to make money. 3) crypto-Q and Q will vary in price as the ratio of depositors / withdrawers changes and this is expected behavior. You must show that given an honest anonymous 'backer' with a large fixed supply of Gold and a matching supply of BS and no new infusions of cash that has the intention of maintaining a peg of crypto-Gold within +/- 10% can be driven to bankruptcy provided they are intelligent about managing their spreads/margins. 4) you must zero the value of crypto-Gold backed by the anonymous 'peg'. 5) you must mint enough crypto-Gold to get the lions share of the crypto-Gold dividends from the anonymous 'peg'. 6) Your attack must assume all actors are rational profit-seekers. 7) Your attack must not be something that Bitcoin is also vulnerable to (51% etc). * edit * I want to clarify that I may choose to stop paying you without giving up on this idea. It just means I do not believe your attacks are valid. Thus not paying you does not entitle anyone to the full bounty. The purpose of the anonymous peg is simply to avoid the SIDS attack issue which is an entirely different area of discussion. Therefore, I will send you 0.25 BTC for your most recent attack. Thanks for hanging around and helping out. .25BTC incoming confirmed! GAME ON!!! :-) Now let me put on my thinking cap. ...Probably nothing until tomorrow... |
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This is what convinced me this system will not work: Assume I issue $1,000,000 of crypto-Gold at todays exchange rate. Tomorrow Gold goes up by 50%. Where does the extra $500,000 of value come from to back the already issued crypto-Gold? If I simply issue another $1,000,000 of crypto-Gold at the new exchange rate... it would still be diluted. Therefore, there would be no profit to back new crypto-Gold with *MORE* backing than existing crypto-Gold.  DO YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS??? The only way to make BitShares work anything close to what I had dreamed would require users to post collateral in excess of the current exchange rate to create crypto-GLD (closer to Version 1.0) Why didn't I see this before? I was looking at small 'incremental' rises that would push it up and then extrapolating wrong. I was thinking that individuals who 'wanted interest bearing USD' would pay a premium to get the return, and therefore cover losses. It might work for small movements, but certainly not for large ones. Why couldn't anyone convince me before? Because no one could explain it in such simple terms. Lessons learned? It was incredibly valuable to have input from those who hung around and the bounties I have paid have been well worth it. I also learned that my arguments were very convincing to everyone around me and to multiple investors who also couldn't see what I was missing. Even TheZerg whom I paid 2 bounties to was resorting to using more and more arcane attacks that required very expensive attackers. When I re-read some of the arguments against my system in light of my new perspective, I see that indeed I am lacking outside pricing information. ------------------------------- That said, what I do know for sure is that I have created a system that enables 'short-selling' of bitcoins. Assume we ignore all of the crypto-Gold/USD stuff, and focus just on 'mortgaging' 1:1. It would allow you to receive $USD today 'selling' your mortgaged shares... and then buy back your shares in the future when they are cheaper. The ability to short-sell bitcoins would enable people to hedge their bets and 'reduce' volatility both of which would be incredibly useful and potentially worthy of investing in on their own. So, if anyone wants to talk about the potential uses / benefits of a crypto-Currency that supports trust-less short-selling then I am open to discuss it. -------------------------------- Regarding the Bounty: I do not believe anyone here *convinced* me. If you believe that it was your input that convinced me, then I will listen to your arguments, and if I still disagree then we can have it arbitrated via judge.me then I am game. Those who did help me and provided constructive feedback received tips or were paid for their exploits/time. Regarding Investors: All investment funds will be returned, unless you want to pursue a short-selling crypto-Currency. Thanks everyone, I hope you found this discussion / idea had some redeeming value on its own even if it was a dead end. QFT |
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k sold... I have some more incase you bulls get cocky  He sold! Buy Buy Buy! Background for our new members: adam had an awesome record of doing exactly the WRONG moves from about 5 to 15 USD. If you don't believe me, just check the first 500 or so pages of the original wall movement thread  What would cypherdoc say? |
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