last one was a 12-hour chart.

this is a daily chart.

look what happens when the Accumulation/Distribution starts rising. *pop*

thanks 

shamelessly bullish right now. 

This. You'll have to let up just a bit Matthew.

One person can't make a decision about every design detail, that's why you hired some professional designers. That was a smart move.

Now you have to respect their decisions. I can assume that as chief editor, you're already exerting full editorial control of the content. A lot of the details (whether editorial or design) are just minutia and you must let go. Everyone will still love the magazine even if it isn't perfect (nothing is perfect!). But if you don't let it ship then we're guaranteed to hate it!

Forget about the models and everything else. Think about your team. The magazine needs nothing new right now. It needs to ship. The longer this goes, the more morale fades in the team. Eventually, the money will run out.

Write the letter from the editor, issue #1. Then listen to your team and let them finish.

Real artists ship.

Looks like PMs not so decoupled after all 

Now this is interesting..

Bullish ACD divergence  

Interesting divergence: AAPL down on a day that SPY is up. Weren't some analysts calling for $1,000? 

With stocks falling hard today (1361 at time of posting), it reminded me of OBV inventor Joseph Granville's Jan 25 call that the rally up into 1400 was bound to fall because of the weak "momentum".

But what does OBV say about the price of bitcoin?



On the weekly chart, the OBV at $3.8 aligned with the ~$2.0 low, suggesting a bottom at seller climax ($4 is the new $2).

Switching to the daily chart..


The OBV lows are still aligned fairly well.

For even further granularity, the 12-hour chart..


Now it doesn't look so sure. But I think there's too much noise on the 12-hour.

The weekly chart is the one to look at (and the one most suggestive of a $3.8 bottom, conveniently enough).


How do the rest of you see the volume / money-flow indicators?

But silver is still down for the day.   

How do false breakouts indicate a breakout? It wasn't just the weekly trendline (which is being gradually pushed higher by falsy breakouts and sideways movement). The other indicators I was looking at (as an alternative to flipping a coin) were bid depth, difficulty, and OBV. OBV still neutral/bullish btw.

Best to wait for the next signal from the coin flip.

If I squint hard enough while looking at that chart, a small "2012" lines up perfectly with a huge inflection point (even sharper than that spike at $30). Isn't that the same year that the block reward gets halved??!

There are only three rules for Elliott waves, and this count is not breaking any of them.


And when the 'the charts' told you to buy near $5.5 a few weeks ago, your subscribers bought right down through the 'textbook correction' to $5.18 before it fell to $4.3. I suppose that was the charts warning the market not to faithfully follow those who claim to have the ability to draw them.



Market predictions fail because the people making them are inherently flawed. There's a harsh lesson in store for any participant who's convinced that they know what they are doing. Anyone who claims otherwise is probably trying to sell something. (and who would need to sell something if they could read charts into the future?)


I think we're in agreement that some humility helps. Actually, its essential to market survival.


If the explanations aren't making sense, maybe try some charts based on rebuilder's coin flips? It signaled a sell in the $4.9's too..

This chart is one that indicated an upside breakout.

If you claim that the charts were saying the opposite at the time, you should provide evidence by sharing them publicly after-the-fact.

Nice (/ lucky) trade. You went short before the asks started building up, which was contrary to the charts, indicators, and sentiment.

Though I'm disappointed that it didn't break out, I'm pleased that there wasn't much selling when the winds changed, even though the lack of bids on the order book was nerve-wracking. I take it as further evidence that selling already climaxed, and that the real breakout will be to the upside sooner or later.

All the way to $4.6 and back.. was that the shitstorm you were talking about? 

The sell-off has been relatively mild so far *knock on wood*.

We're still in the $4.3-$5.5 channel. Despite this counter-intuitive setback, my money says we'll break $5.5 before going below $4.3.

It will go back up, and then all the asks will be removed.

The asks on the order book are fake. They're there to manipulate people into selling their bitcoins for cheap.

If difficulty is growing, speculators will hesitate to invest in mining equipment. He would prefer to buy if price seems cheap enough, because the payoff from buying cheap coins is much bigger than mining at high difficulty. So in theory, a high difficulty should support and drive price higher.

Let's look at the evidence. Price peaked at $30 in the first of week June, but difficulty lagged by about eight weeks, not turning downward until the first week of August.

The most recent price peak was at $7.2 in the second week of January, with downward/sideways price movement since then, going on 11 weeks now. But over those weeks difficulty has kept on growing, and at an increasing rate. Difficulty is leading the price; its close to the 1.8 million high, but the price is far behind.

If this time price turns upward (maybe setting a new high over $7.2) before difficulty turns downard, to me it will be strong evidence that rising difficulty can drive the price.

If difficulty turns downward soon, I'll eat my hat and concede that difficulty has little or no bearing on the price.

Pretty early to be short in a 3rd of 3rd wave up mega-rally. But thanks anyway for the 19 BTC.

I want to marry this woman.