huge sell walls up ahead. I dont think we will see major movement tonight. Hopefully we will have another morning price jump, but it would have to be a MAJOR buy to get us even back to $75. Unless the sell walls are fake.
huge sell walls = prelude to price jumps You're right, the "huge" sell wall at 68.91 today didn't really do much to stop us. They seem to have magnifying effects if anything, especially when there is high buying pressure. I was waiting all evening for that wall to fall -- and as soon as it did we were at $75. |
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Crash?
All the way down to $71.9 maybe....
Last night the wall from $68.9 - $70 was over 10k BTC, and it came crashing down in a matter of hours. This wall is only ~$8k. There is less buying pressure due to the time of the day, but there is no sign of a crash.
That said, I guess we will stay around here for a day or two. I expect $75-> high $90s will be very swift next week.
Just a guess though -- it could all happen much sooner than that.
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So you basically negate the usefulness technical analysis?
Exactly! TA has it's place, but it's usefulness (IMO) is in observing historical impact of events and extrapolating how they might apply in the current situation. Again IMO, that has a much higher chance of working in a mature market. However, Bitcoin is *not* a mature or steady market. The number and type of players is increasing dramatically. The number of participants now is several orders of magnitude larger than 2011, and they have a different investing profile. You can't compare past events with the current situation. Once the market is established, you will be able to -- but now it is just wild guesswork. "2011 big rise then crash, therefore crash" sounds like sound logic, but it is not -- it is gamblers' fallacy; looking for patterns in random or disconnected events. |
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It's unreasonable to expect steady exponential (or steady anything) growth.
The user base will come flooding in in fits and starts.
For example, say the current rise is from the "Reddit effect". We all know that Redditors can bring down websites when they flood across the Internet to visit stories. It's unreasonable to expect that they will flow in in an exponential fashion: with one friend telling 2 and those 2 telling 4, and so on... rather, they will all descend at once.
There was a jump in prices as they all finally got funds cleared and bought. Then the price rose by ~60%, which will result in a renewed flourish of Internet activity, which will result in additional waves of takeup down the road.
I expect the same will be true for institutional or large investors. Big buys, then an amplifying network effect.
So rather than steady growth, we will see S-curve jumps. Each s-curve will have a ripple of following activity -- either resonant/amplifying, or dampening.
I expect (wild guess) the "Reddit effect" will be a large s-curve followed by smaller (dampening) s-curves.
I expect (wild guess) that the "Big investors" and the increased interest from European investors are a small effect now, but will be followed by amplifying effects.
Anyway, to cut to the chase.... It's reasonable to expect a much-high-than-exponential growth in the early days, interspersed with short periods of calm. I don't think that is indicative of a bubble. In fact, it makes sense to make the best of the steep part of each of the S-curves.... The bigger the stone cast, the wider the ripples.
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Remember the BTC price crash in 2011? Below is the google trends chart of the search term "bitcoin" from 2010 until today.  The overall interest in bitcoins still hasn't reached it's peak from mid 2011 and there still seems to be upside potential. However, in my opinion, the danger of another price crash is rising. What do you think? I think the risk of a crash is relatively constant, in fact probably falling over time... it is dependent on a few factors with a largely fixed probability -- major hacks, protocol problems, better investment opportunities coming along, and so on. The risk is not strongly coupled to past performance. You can't predict the risk of a crash from looking at charts. |
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If you're trying to drive the market up to unload, it's a bit pointless doing it right this very minute.
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Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.
There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".
There are people making millions of dollars reading the chart using technical analysis. Bitcoin is of course more of a wild-west and the information you get from bitCoin is much less statistical reliable than EurUsd. But still you get some clue when you see tha chart go up like a hocky-stick... a crash is inevitable - but who knows from which level? They're making millions of dollars by not day-trading at all as far as I can tell. Market-changing events are determined by events, not statistics. Also... consider... "your baby is growing really fast... a crash is inevitable". The "inevitable" logic only applies in a mature market, not a nascent one. |
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So this wall is hanging on fairly well. Maybe it's too soon to be pushing up that high?
Ok, it's finally being bought into by a few people. I expect more will follow soon. Yep, it's slowly being eaten... 0.6k down in 5 mins... |
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Awesome, you should post this in the BitCoin Discussion forum. The Cyprus Effect may yet take hold... |
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Yes, and also .. despite what many will have you believe in this forum.... the market doesn't rise and fall "because of charts". Charts don't help you predict future events that alter Bitcoin fundamentals.
There is a fundamental catalyst for all market changes. That catalyst is not "the charts showed a similar pattern before".
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Serious stuff...
BTW, you missed Rwanda off the "already passed" list...
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There is only panic buying.
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It will only crash if serious bad news comes in. Otherwise, there is no other way but up with perhaps temporary hickups or horizontal movements allowing the market to catch up with the breakneck speed.
It would take REALLY bad news. The recent problems with the fork chain didn't do it.
A gov ban on bitcoin would have some effect, but the recently issued finCEN ruling actually shows that an US ban is not imminent, providing further support for BTC going mainstream.
I really don't see any good reason it should stop at $100 or thereafter. Maybe a little delay, as we saw at $50. Then up, next stops $200 or $250 (3 weeks), then $500 (somtime in may), then $1000 (during the summer).
I think this is remarkably prescient. |
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$48.30 is far too ambitious :-)
Within the next few days we'll be flirting with $100. Any slight pull-back of 20% will be filled in almost instantly.
Such a mini-blip could come at any time and I can't see the future, so the safest bet here is that the all-time low in the next 7 days will be 68.5.
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There's potentially a big leap up after this. With the rate money is pouring in... a little pause at 68.9 with this wall... All hell could break loose afterwards. $80? $150?
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"When do you plan to stop buying on the way up" might be a more pertinent question :-)
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Summer of 2013??? There's a very real possibility of us reaching $100 in a day or two.... Seriously, we're about to break $70.... only 10.1k to go, and when we get through that...  Resistance looks a lot less than when we were at $47. No chance of an 80% drop right now either, huge buying pressure. |
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This run up is going to turn even more people off than in 2011. I feel bad for anyone in Cyprus who bought bitcoins as protection against 10% loss to their savings account, because odds are that when this thing finally turns they'll have lost significantly more than that.
BUY BUY BUY.... $100 tonight! |
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