I would not have been so impressed, and the whole thing wouldn't feel so awesome, if Bitcoin price had never gone to $2.
As for PMs, my point is still that central banks can easily one-up you at PMs when things get really desperate, Bitcoin, ain't so easy. So unless your apocalypse theory is of the everyone for himself absolute jungle flavor, don't buy too much.
Yep, that was key. Ponzis don't bounce remember? That was a bad time. The shorts were out in force. It took heavy discipline to buy that crash. |
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Btw, if you don't think Bitcoin has the potential to deflate the stock market then you're not dreaming the true Bitcoin Dream.  Who cares? If you have sufficient Bitcoin exposure your gains there will easily offset the loss in purchasing power of your stock portfolio even if it goes to zero (which it won't). No it won't go to zero but if you've ever been short stocks during a prolonged deflationary phase its an incredible way to make money fast. It's an escalator up elevator down dynamic but very difficult to catch. But back to the point. Bitcoin is deflationary to other assets. It's been key to my gold thesis. Next up, stocks. The stock market is the most inflated asset around right now. All this bs talk about multiple expansion from Wall Street is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. But no doubt, tptb are going to do everything they possibly can to keep it going up by debasing the dollar. So like I said, Bitcoin will do well in that scenario. |
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don't worry, i get plenty wrong too. this f*ckin Dow just won't go down and i've been over a year too early on the short side. one of these days i'll be right. but the thing is, i've been SO right with gold and BTC i've been able to hold that pair trade (long Bitcoin:short stocks) the whole time with huge returns. i think we're getting close to hitting on both sides of that trade though. if you trade long enough, you'll realize if you can be right more often than wrong you're doing good. if you can be right for 2 out of the 3 markets you're trading in, that's real good. better cut ur loss dow prob will top above 30k Btw, if you don't think Bitcoin has the potential to deflate the stock market then you're not dreaming the true Bitcoin Dream. SO MANY dollars are locked up in the stock market right now. Imo, the stock market is the quintessential representation of US dollar hegemony and power. It's the only thing keeping the US afloat. While not as big as the UST market, it's psychological importance is bigger. For Bitcoin to achieve the heights we're all dreaming about with lots of zeroes on the end, it will have to crack stocks to draw from that pool of dollars. |
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What can I say? She's blonde.
Who? Your wife or your daughter? My wife for thinking that you could turn BTC.1 into BTC10 by just waiting... Aw, shucks. I was gonna say... ... your daughter has an excuse. |
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Especially considering since the start of this thread the BTC:gold ratio has been in almost continual freefall ascent.
ftfy. Is not the convention numerator:denominator? In that case BTC:gold is falling and gold:BTC is ascending. Sorry, was thinking in terms of price. |
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don't worry, i get plenty wrong too. this f*ckin Dow just won't go down and i've been over a year too early on the short side. one of these days i'll be right. but the thing is, i've been SO right with gold and BTC i've been able to hold that pair trade (long Bitcoin:short stocks) the whole time with huge returns. i think we're getting close to hitting on both sides of that trade though. if you trade long enough, you'll realize if you can be right more often than wrong you're doing good. if you can be right for 2 out of the 3 markets you're trading in, that's real good. better cut ur loss dow prob will top above 30k But then so will my BTC and I'll be long retired. I want a hedge. And you just know there's going to be a crisis somewhere along here. |
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Never again, moving on I know, gold is to economics as the horse drawn buggy is to international travel.
But... CombiBar! It's... The most innovative precious metals product that I've ever seen. ...dinosaur tech. Lol. I remember  when I saw that one. Infinitely divisible! |
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...
(Although I'm HongKonger I speak quite standard Mandarin. I learnt it by listening to Xinwen Lianbo)
... Please call yourself HONGKONGESE..... there is no such thing as HONGKONGER.... You can find both on google. Both are used and neither of them is official, and I don't think you can find them in any serious dictionary. (It is quite sad that after >150 years of British colonization we don't even a noun for "Hong Kong people") By the way, Hongkonger gives you more hits on google. I Googled around a bit. I liked 'Hongkey' the best. lol! |
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I cannot see how you got so screwed on taxes WRT gold. I have a CPA do my books and I didn't seem to have gotten hit nearly as hard. 2013 is going to be an interesting year due to my starting to take BTC profits.
The really interesting thing will happen if/when people start to exchange BTC for PM's (and vice-versa) directly in a major way.
b/c i report them?  as i said, my local bullion dealer meticulously recorded my entire gold/silver sale back to them by writing down my name, address, check amount, and photocopying my license. you'd have to be nuts not to report the gains. I concur about the questionable judgement of not reporting, and I reported mine as well. I just didn't get hit with some 50% or whatever crazy numbers you were mentioning were. We got in at different times, however, and maybe that had something to do with it. I just let my CPA deal with that shit. BTW, however stupid it might be to cheat on the PM gain taxes, I'll bet it is 10x more so to attempt to do so on BTC gains. The reason is that it will be one of the few vaguely legitimate reasons to attack Bitcoin should the government take a mind to do so. And as the ecosystem continues to flourish I think there is a very real danger that they'll be forced into that course of action. When it comes to direct PM<->BTC transactions it seems like the barriers to exploitation both legally and mechanically is a bit higher. That is why I think it will be interesting to watch how things evolve if/when we get that far. i don't think i ever said i got hit with 50%. i believe it was 20% capital gains. i also don't know exactly as my acct does that shit too. |
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don't worry, i get plenty wrong too. this f*ckin Dow just won't go down and i've been over a year too early on the short side. one of these days i'll be right. but the thing is, i've been SO right with gold and BTC i've been able to hold that pair trade (long Bitcoin:short stocks) the whole time with huge returns. i think we're getting close to hitting on both sides of that trade though. if you trade long enough, you'll realize if you can be right more often than wrong you're doing good. if you can be right for 2 out of the 3 markets you're trading in, that's real good. I cannot see how you got so screwed on taxes WRT gold. I have a CPA do my books and I didn't seem to have gotten hit nearly as hard. 2013 is going to be an interesting year due to my starting to take BTC profits. The really interesting thing will happen if/when people start to exchange BTC for PM's (and vice-versa) directly in a major way. b/c i report them? as i said, my local bullion dealer meticulously recorded my entire gold/silver sale back to them by writing down my name, address, check amount, and photocopying my license. you'd have to be nuts not to report the gains. |
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those lines for the start of the threads really don't do them justice. don't forget they represent a ratio so the plunge in BTC from July 2011 to Nov 2011 cause the peak in btwn the start of the 2 threads even though gold had started its decline. it's just that BTC crashed faster than gold. It's difficult to capture the gold:USD, USD:BTC, and gold:BTC ratios in a single line graph. In either case, if somebody dumped all their gold and bought BTC at the beginning of either one of these threads and sat on their position they've done very well by now. Especially considering since the start of this thread the BTC:gold ratio has been in almost continual freefall ascent. ftfy. you cannot capture the trading granularity with the one line graph. hence the granularity of this thread and the newsletter. more than once i've had to justify my claimed trades by linking back to specific posts in my history here after having been slammed to the wall by the likes of silverbox, MatthewLM, bitcool, etc (you know, goldbugs). it's all here. |
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don't worry, i get plenty wrong too. this f*ckin Dow just won't go down and i've been over a year too early on the short side. one of these days i'll be right. but the thing is, i've been SO right with gold and BTC i've been able to hold that pair trade (long Bitcoin:short stocks) the whole time with huge returns. i think we're getting close to hitting on both sides of that trade though. if you trade long enough, you'll realize if you can be right more often than wrong you're doing good. if you can be right for 2 out of the 3 markets you're trading in, that's real good. |
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Put a mark on the chart from when you started this thread and chuckle about how long you had to suck it up and take abuse from the likes of me. First vertical line is the start of the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread. Second vertical line is the start of this thread.  those lines for the start of the threads really don't do them justice. don't forget they represent a ratio so the plunge in BTC from July 2011 to Nov 2011 cause the peak in btwn the start of the 2 threads even though gold had started its decline. it's just that BTC crashed faster than gold and then rebounded. i'm not going to sit here and brag but if you go back thru my posts, i started selling silver at the peak of $49 with avg cost out @ $44. the Gold I Smell a Trap thread, 8/9/11, was perfectly timed to the peak in gold @ 1923.7 in Sept 2011. my BTC buying started Apr 2011 as well. |
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- image -
and here i thought i was early. Put a mark on the chart from when you started this thread and chuckle about how long you had to suck it up and take abuse from the likes of me. The lesson to be learned here in my opinion is that diversity is a good thing. I'm delighted by Bitcoin's performance and more hopeful then ever that we've not seen anything yet. But I also would not be surprised to see a very ugly step function representing Bitcoin's failure. - edit: fix quotes. it wasn't just you. it was me against all the goldbugs. it's all here in the threads. there were a lot of them. i've been thinking over the last few days just how much this thread has calmed down since its beginning days. you actually had to be here to appreciate just how much trolling i suffered through to make this point. i seem to have this gift in attracting large groups of ppl who hate what i have to say for prolonged periods of time. the goldbugs were the first, the shorts during the Bitcoin Depression of 2011 second, and finally the Hashfast haters. and to be fair, you were one of the few with me during the battle with the shorts. |
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and here i thought i was early. |
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The routine is true, but I don't agree with your conclusion. There is no sarcastic wordings used.
(Although I'm HongKonger I speak quite standard Mandarin. I learnt it by listening to Xinwen Lianbo)
Don't forget who pay those people showing on TV,of course they could not be sarcastic. Most educated Chinese will read news from some websites.(some webs like news.163.com,or some private webs only for Chinese.) Sure, Xinwen Lianbo is not even a real news programme. If you want to read real news, you should go elsewhere. Xinwen Lianbo is where people could read the mind of the country's dictator. yes, this is the point. it fits well with their desire to rid the world of the USD reserve currency. |
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thanx jl2012.
everything you've said sounds reasonable.
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