total_ask reduced from >100000 BTC to 90000 BTC
total_bid unchanged 8.3 MUSD
total_bid/total_ask = 92 USD/BTC (never seen this number so high)
LOL, The People just spent $us500k from their pocket without reducing the outstanding bids at all. If you ask me, the total_bid/total_ask/current_price-1 tells quite exactly where we are going in the following weeks. |
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All the action so far has been in the f-en Mt.Gox. Bitstamp is doing just fine at $47.6 when I last checked.
weird. why are the arbitrageurs not doing their work? Yeah, there was a $1 difference. Narrowed down by now. But the price is not crashing, so obviously the troll did not have BTC25,000 to sell either  |
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Still, it is not you who is going to use the site. Can't you see he already claims to have the biggest bitcoin website in China? How about some respect! In China it is fully normal and reputable to use copycat brands in marketing. It is not like we have it here. I know some Chinese businessmen and it is different in there.
China is bigger than the U.S. and E.U. *combined* - by a factor of 2. Let's get used to it and only post here if we want to help the OP, shall we?
Don't think that statistic is true. Financially, I know the EU has a bigger GDP than the US, and I doubt China is bigger than the EU. What China does have is more customers - each with a few dollars to play with! The richest Chinese businessmen have the same spending ability as an average US consumer but with a 7% growth rate, that class of consumer is becoming bigger every year! Eww.. I personally know Chinese businessmen that could buy bitcoin to $100, lol. |
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Thank you for comments. I try to answer your concerns: - Here you know what your odds are when you enter/exit into contract. I honestly don't understand the approach why you should not know it beforehand.
You even try to make a "weather forecast" of USD/BTC rate, based on what? All your odds can only be "wild guesses", at best, because it is (still?) possible to manipulate the exchange rate. You know, the fiat printing game aka "the soft method". But if you don't prefer "verified & trustable" ... Our exact method for setting the odds remains proprietary, but the basics are open to be discussed: The 'outcome space' is divided into $1 slots. For each slot we integrate the probability of the price ending up in this slot, from the sum of two probability density functions (cauchy distribution with parameters ExpectedPrice, ExpectedVolatility and exponential distribution with ExpectedPrice). The weight of the exponential function decreases when the maturity approaches. We use the existing Mt.Gox data to evaluate the parameter ExpectedVolatility. The ExpectedPrice is trickier to evaluate, but we will use an automanual approach to what other futures exchanges give, what we believe (so far USD/BTC has gone up almost 100,000% so there will definitely be a huge bias to the upside) and how the punters are betting. This gives us a 'raw' probability for each slot. It will be adjusted by the amount each slot has been over/underbet relative to others. If everybody is all bulls, the cost of longs will go up and vice versa. We only allow a single bet of BTC100 to make it possible for us to change the odds for the next bettor. By this method of operation, we can fully take into advantage of our own bet feed as a parameter in setting the prices, yet we avoid the liquidity trap of some p2p exchanges and the rather high spreads that MPEx has. A binary options contract consists of betting a single or multiple slots. A simple example is next Friday binary call at $50. If the price is more than $50, you win. Otherwise you lose. The odds are evaluated by summing up all the slots from $50 upwards and adding a house margin for purchase (subtracting the margin for sale). It happens that binary put $50 is exactly the same contract as (short)selling the call. We have measures in place to automatically wider spreads in extreme trading conditions such as the loss of Mt.Gox api feed, volatility of spot rate, influx of bets or DDoS. I believe you have little need to worry about our trading/outcome risk management. We have every intention to keep the payout matrix as even as possible (so that there will be only a few outcomes that would lead to us losing money weekly, and even then the amount is manageable). We start with offering rather low maximum bets ( BTC10) and only go higher as we have experience on the setting of the parameters. The team is well capitalized and we are working on to install an insurance bonds system similar to MPEx, which would further add trust to our ability to pay our obligations. We can also give out the payment matrix if we like. It shows exactly how much we need to pay out in every possible outcome. If, however, you believe you can add some insight to our risk management, please go on. We have BTC360.5 left in our current software development war chest and are more than happy to share it with everyone with valuable contribution. And still one advantage of ours:
- No dealing with any fiat currency. Much more solid and robust operation, far less technical, legal etc. hassles.
The USD/BTC exchange rate is pretty much a "dealing with fiat currency" thing. And you should ask the GLBSE (or Gigamining?) operators about legal hassle. MPEx and SD have their means, to avoid uncle gov to a certain degree, but your operation seems to be open for a lot of attacks, which is not "Our intention is to minimize our own risk". No, it is not. It is just the thing that we offer people to bet for. And I would be delighted to know what exactly makes us any more vulnerable to angry gov that MPEx and SD are. |
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All the action so far has been in the f-en Mt.Gox. Bitstamp is doing just fine at $47.6 when I last checked.
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For the record, I am not expecting an actual 1mil buy. Wouldn't mind being wrong tho.
Me neither, lol. Nobody is that stupid. I rather believe this is a $1 million investor wanting to cash out higher than the prevailing price  The herd is buying. But the herd these days is a force to be reckoned. Expect a sharp selloff, though. |
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Thank you, good that it turned out well.
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And still one advantage of ours:
- No dealing with any fiat currency. Much more solid and robust operation, far less technical, legal etc. hassles.
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China is bigger than the U.S. and E.U. *combined* - by a factor of 2. Let's get used to it and only post here if we want to help the OP, shall we?
Fair enough, I thought I was helping but I guess it could be seen as "preaching western values onto others" which isn't what I intended. Deal  I see you are promoting Litecoin, btw. and it does not suit well with the stance against copycats |
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Calm down dudes. He is not selling the service to you, but to the Chinese! It is YOU who have to respect the local way of doing business, and bitching about some intellectual property laws that are very wrong HERE in our beloved 1st world, is not the way to go. Just my BTC.02000000.
I'm not concerned about the law, just that the time to come up with a name and beginnings for your company is easy in comparison with creating a viable business. And if he/her can't create a brand of their own then I fear for those using the site. That's all. Still, it is not you who is going to use the site. Can't you see he already claims to have the biggest bitcoin website in China? How about some respect! In China it is fully normal and reputable to use copycat brands in marketing. It is not like we have it here. I know some Chinese businessmen and it is different in there. China is bigger than the U.S. and E.U. *combined* - by a factor of 2. Let's get used to it and only post here if we want to help the OP, shall we? |
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Not seen that before! You are complaining that he isn't showing remorse for something that isn't illegal in his country! You then decide that he can't be any good with business because he doesn't think that what isn't illegal in his country isn't a problem! What planet are you from? China is sometimes more libertarian than the west - its dislike of Intellectual property rights is a good example! I think I am right to question this person's efforts. If they have this attitude towards creating a brand for their business, I really don't think they will have the will to make a secure long lasting trading site (dealing with peoples money) I never meant he can't be good at business, just he won't be good at making a trusted business. There is a difference. Most of the copycat products and companies in China are unsafe and broken. Look at the copycat fake phones and tablets, they fail after a few weeks. Their bridges and buildings are falling down. Business is booming but they don't care if you lose all your money. Just be-careful sending your Bitcoins and cash to a site where the owner can't even come up with a unique business name. When the shit hits the fan and the money is all gone, he will be too. Calm down dudes. He is not selling the service to you, but to the Chinese! It is YOU who have to respect the local way of doing business, and bitching about some intellectual property laws that are very wrong HERE in our beloved 1st world, is not the way to go. Just my BTC.02000000. |
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Hey com'on, 173 reads and nobody comments anything  Are there any theoreticians around, apart from Mircea Popescu whose work I truly admire? |
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I forgot to mention our most obvious advantage over some of the other exchanges out there:
- Here you know what your odds are when you enter/exit into contract. I honestly don't understand the approach why you should not know it beforehand.
Also as our pricing engine updates the odds offered every minute, it generates a lot of data that you can analyze for optimal trading strategies. This is not suitable for HF-trading, since there will be a forced (albeit small) spread. But for every other legitimate business we consider this is to be the most reliable, easiest to use, cheapest and most fun way to speculate on bitcoin price, or do some hedging.
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So you are planning to offer some kind of Futures/Options, or at least something, that MPEx is already offering with an (idiot exclusion?) entering fee, if I understand you correctly. (MPEx PR is probably loading the shitstorm canon atm).
Don't get me wrong. You can do/try what ever you think is right. But you are entering a field with a lot of competition from other casinos, that already inflate the area of unproductive businesses.
Nonetheless, if you want to offer your service to the rest of the "members only" userbase of current services, you should get rid off accounts completely, including URL-based user accounts. I think it was the key for the success of satoshi dice, since any idiot, who can use bitcoin, can automatically gamble at SD. They don't even need an URL-based-anything to operate. (MPEx developed this advantage also lately, IIRC). But if your webserver is fucked, you are fucked.
Thank you for the kind advice. We are aware of that competition is fierce. It seems that it does not take much to open this kind of service, and unfortunately some financial services, most notably bitcoinica, have fallen because of a hack. I have yet to encounter MPOE-PR personally, and (s)he is welcome to state his/her opinion on the venture in this thread. Getting rid of accounts completely was our first idea, and we have its technical spex half done. We abandoned it in favor of a webserver, because we intend to gain trust and volume with a lot of small bettors before entering in the big boyz arena and eating MPEx for lunch. Satoshi Dice is a nice enterprise, but we are envisioning the age when bitcoin users are numbered in millions, and they will prefer "soft" methods over "verified & trustable". I have nothing against the verifiably fair concept, but the number of people who actually make or break about it... is not much. What we believe we can do better, is: - General trustability of the company is better than most other bitcoin ventures as this is backed by businessmen with long track record outside bitcoin. The company actually has more people behind it than just one! - For the reason described above, the company is well funded and can quickly (as soon as our risk-management software is honed) accept rather high bets against the house. - We believe that it is our greatest advantage that we can be open at all times and the ability for a user to buy/sell an option is not constrained by lack of liquidity. This is the reason why we are going the marketmaker way. Our software quite diligently evaluates our risk position for every possible outcome and adjusts the odds accordingly. - Of course the above would be moot if the spread was sky-high. We intend to push it as low as possible, and give you the best of both worlds - the liquidity of a market-maker but also the low spreads possible in a parimutuel or similar approach. - "Predicting the future" is something we want to reserve for our customers. Our intention is to minimize our own risk, and turn out a small profit on most of the rounds. - Nice and functional web interface, that is immediately usable, and features an auto-forward option (all credits are paid directly to your own bitcoin address). |
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Hi, can you ship the coin to Australia? Thanks No, sorry. EU only. (Of course I can but I don't want to, coinabul got into trouble because of it..) |
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Wow, what a place this bitcoinworld. Casascius is selling like crazy! I also ordered mine, and got posted my shipping info very promptly. Thank you very much, molecular! Even though you can get 2 * 1oz Silver Maple Leafs delivered to you for LESS than 1 * 1 BTC Casascius coin, not many are taking the bait  : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=151800.0 post #50 Be sure to pick yours while the coins last.. gasp.. before they collect spiderwebs and patina  |
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The contract is saying that you can request a withdrawal at any time. It is totally obvious that the bank can't process a withdrawal if they don't have the money. They could add that clause to the contract, but there would be no point -- everyone understands that already.
I'm sorry, but the contract must explicitly define such things. I'm among the minority group of libertarians that disagree that fractional reserves are inherently fraudulent - they certainly don't need to be. But the terms should all be explicit, otherwise it's indeed a fraud. That's a good way to make lawyers rich, but it doesn't actually do anything. "Implicit contracts" are only tolerable for really obvious things, where no reasonable person would think otherwise (classic example: you invite me for a ride on your boat: there's an implicit agreement that you'll bring me back to the shore, and not order me to leave your property in the middle of the sea) It's not a bank's job to give its customers an education. If they don't understand how banks work, odds are they don't really want to know and I don't see it being reasonable for a bank to try to educate them. I can't imagine how adding a few more paragraphs of legalese explaining how fractional reserve banking works to their agreements would make any difference and I think it's kind of odd to imagine it would. In any event, it's not a secret. It's understood by anyone who takes the time to learn it. So it's not fraud. The bank doesn't seek to profit from anyone's lack of understanding how fractional reserve banking works. Nobody would act any differently if they knew and the only people who don't know are those who don't wish to and don't care. Thank you. It seems that I need to reconsider my position. Up until now I have been considering fractional reserve banking a fraud, and I still think it is a detriment to the society. At the very minimum, bailouts of any kinds of businesses should be expressly forbidden. The Cyprus deal, even as it stands now, still supports Russian oligarchs from my pocket without my approval, and I don't think it is a stable ground to build a society upon. |
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Updated that there will only be 2 more orders to Germany at the special price of  . Our normal price of  beats all competitors, though... See post #1 for details about normal price, #50 for the special deal. |
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Yes, the only moral thing was to let banks compete with same terms as the other companies do. You know, it is considered fraud, if you sell something you don't have, eg. banks are doing with their fractional reserve deposits. Fraud requires deception. Nobody thinks the bank takes their money and locks it in the vault. Well, if their current account contract says that you can withdraw any amount anytime, and they do not possess the capability of making good of such a promise, it IS fraud. |
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What we are willing to source rather soon, is the web-frontend (punter/bettor/investor interface).
The other components are possible to be developed in-house. However in case you have expertise on something required, or know about components of code that might be useful, please contact us.
This venture is a highly liquid no-nonsense experiment of setting up a bitcoin business. We expect that you are a top developer if you contact us, and we are ready to pay for it.
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