Yeah, it is not my big mouth alone, but also what comes out of it. Also I think the picture is nice, I look like I was 40, lol.

The speculation may or may not prove correct (by being right 52% of the time, I have ended up here). But at least there are incredible deals BTC->silver in my sig. 

For all I know, the likely upper limit for Satoshi group's holdings is about BTC2,500,000.00000000. That is a huge number of satoshi, I agree. But it is only about 10% of the total btc issued.

Call me pervert if you like, but I actually like the idea of a wealthy and responsible entity behind something. The power behind the current world order are wealthy, yes, but I don't like the way the manage the world. Satoshigroup has so far been doing better, as evidenced by the +100,000% rise (1000:1) of USD/BTC exchange rate since the opening of Mt.Gox.

For everyone buying gold, I am sure you realize that 60% of world's gold in the hands of the bankers. Not so with silver. So guess which one is more trustable and valued? Gold, indeed.

The so called Satoshi group has been behind stalling this rally for the common good. Otherwise, who would have sold? I was seriously considering it would go directly to $100-$300, followed by a huge crash. The current course of action is so much better if BTC is ever to gain some mainstream credibility.

Yes, the only moral thing was to let banks compete with same terms as the other companies do. You know, it is considered fraud, if you sell something you don't have, eg. banks are doing with their fractional reserve deposits. To me, the moral alternative would have been to refuse to bail out from day 1, or even better not allow the banks to operate fraudulently.

This goes into the right direction, if my ethics is concerned. Bankruptcy would have been better.

If you are all in, therefore cannot buy, and do not intend to sell, you have no share in deciding bitcoin's future. Your (in)action will not cause the price to do anything. You can just hope.

Nice analysis +1. For some time I thought you were a bear. Maybe you were just buying, like I also did last week.

There more people are touting their hope to see $50...

...the less they will see it. Why? Everybody hoping for price to rise is already committed, and cannot help the price to rise by buying more. The ones that could cause the price to rise (such as I) don't want it to rise, as they want to buy cheaper.

Therefore, the more people I see wishing for a price rise, the less I will be helping them. If I see too many such people, I will start selling, and then you will, and then the price will not indeed rise but rather fall. How about that?

Nice analysis!

It was a scenario analysis for bitcoin's value in 5 years. I don't remember the exact figures (it's buried somewhere in the speculation forum as it is - gasp - already 48 hours old).

Something like, 4 scenarios

A) Mass adoption gets the price to $20000
B) Steady, albeit slowing rise of price to $1500
C) Bitcoin is wounded and price is stuck anywhere between $10 and $100
D) Bitcoin folds altogether and goes to zero.

Then I assigned probabilities to these scenarios, calculated the expected value and discounted it to find the net present value. $2000 was the present value.

This kind of analysis is very important, since bitcoin does have the fat tail of very large payouts in not-so-small probabilities. If there was not the possibility of $20000 price, the NPV of course would not be anywhere close to $2000. I am finding it funny to state that $200 in 5 years is an example of a scenario where bitcoin has failed.

By using net present value analysis, I came up with the result that a bitcoin now is actually worth $2000 on average. There is significant variation in the possible outcomes, though. Considering that many people will want to get rich even when the odds are against them, I see that bitcoin is a good value proposition to become rich. After all, the average payout is 40 times the the investment now (it was even discounted at 8%).

For a person with my tolerance for risk, this translates to a portfolio allocation of about 40%, and I am busy trying to achieve it.

In the links below, in my signature, you can support my quest by purchasing silver for cheap or for cheaper (hint: post #50).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=153742.0

The above is also a method of profiting from the collapse of USD/BTC. You can select from a wealth of maturities, options types and trading strategies, the one that you think will maximize your profit with the minimum risk. You will never risk more than you have deposited. All contracts are guaranteed by the house to have functional buyback terms if you want to close it before maturity.

As a Finnish taxpayer, I think the deal is good:

- It will reduce the need for taxpayer money in the bailout
- It will reduce the confidence in the banks and the corrupt system as a whole
- It will punish the speculators that have both loans and money in the bank (sucker, your arbitrage just shrank by 990 pips how do you feel about that?)
- Which will further reduce the confidence on any tricks that the banks keep pulling from their hats to tie up your money in their value-reduction schemes such as pension plans, mutual funds, etc.
- It will keep the banks afloat for a few more months and give everybody with a brain a chance to invest in bitcoin.

The idea is presented more clearly and in more detail in post #7.

I indulged myself into thinking, how would a company that does something solely in the bitcoin world, with no ties to real economy, no jurisdiction, no external bureaucracy, organize itself. From a funding perspective, I came up with the following idea:

In the initial meetup of the team, people draft a mission statement and shareholder agreement.

They select the president for the company and set their compensation (most likely in BTC/hour format with rather high hourly pay, since working for the company is very sporadic and based on real business need, there will be no waste hours).

They raise the initial funding, and continue to raise funding the same way every 3rd day of the month as follows:

-- The company will distribute all its existing funds to its shareholders.
-- The company will evaluate its need for funding the next month, as the sum of A)salary payments for previous month's work due now, B)next month approximate burnrate, C)small safety margin.
-- The above sum will be up for bidding in 1 BTC increments. Bids are given in the form 'X new shares per 1 BTC' and all shares will be issued at the price of the cutoff bid. All existing shareholders can and should participate. A 10% minority can block a new shareholder.
-- Thus, the # of shares in the company grows perpetually. But the shares also receive dividend every month, and everybody gets paid for their work. In practice, much of the dividends and salaries is reinvested to the company, unless some deeppocket investor bids more for the new shares. The ownership percentages evolve gradually.

The benefits of this system are:

The team members need to evaluate every month if the company is going in the right direction (how much real money am I willing to bid, in order to raise/keep my relative ownership in the company?).

The company all the time has a realistic valuation, and should some new investor want to come in, he can invest with confidence with the same terms as the previous shareholders. If he wants to buy more shares than are offered per month, he can negotiate a deal with some of the current shareholders. There will be no lockups or other obsolete stuff. Let the free market reign.

Easy to decide how much cashflow one actually wants from the company month-per-month, as it is fully fluid despite the uneven workload.

If there are setbacks and the value of the company plummets, it is easier for the true believers to corner the company, and reap the fruits of their labor and insight, when the price recovers. Many companies have fallen due to the stagnation resulting from their share price falling, but this one is immune from such. If it is not worth much anymore, the dilution will skyrocket automatically, without need to negotiate. If it is no more worth anybody's time, nobody will bid for the shares, and the company is liquidated without a hassle, since it does not have any assets.

There will be some speculation around the time of the funding round, but speculation is much better than politics. The latter is a given, every time there is lots of money in the company, and owners are in unequal position of power and wealth.

If the company needs more funding in the middle of the month, an extra funding round is organized.

Thoughts?

That's the thing to do, then. Thanks for your order! If you appreciate your friends, spread the link 

I don't ship to Norway, (even though it is entirely your problem how to deal with your VAT that does exist for sure).

Yes, I can ship to Sweden.

Yes, I am buying in. And selling silver. Any other questions?

There is a resistance on that price level, because the previous break out attempt was stalled there.

However, I believe there is more resistance between $48.15-$50 and will not commit my fiat any more to this market until one of the following happens:

- We break $50
- We break $40
- One month passes without either happening.

This resoundingly demonstrates the willingness of sellers to stop this rally for now (which is good for the long term prospects of Bitcoin).

We are not going to breach $50 now. The rally is over. We have entered a sideways consolidation, which may even turn out a correction, with the slightest bad news. The stability of the price is an illusion. The all-time-high just 2 weeks ago was 30% lower than where we are now. We can lose that 30% in a heartbeat if someone smells blood. Will they? In my opinion, only if something negative happens. But I can't really see a buying frenzy from here before a long breather. Hopefully we see 3 months before any serious price action to the up- or to the downside.

I would be surprised if any of the large holders ever sold any. The feds will be all over taxing the profits on BTC when it hits mainstream. The only way to escape capital gains tax is to never sell.

As the events in Cyprus show, sometimes you have to pay out of your current balances as well, so even the above is not 100% sure, assuming full compliance.

Disclaimer: I have never sold a BTC, nor I probably ever will.