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Again, please post a link showing what you're claiming. I'm not entirely sure what you're saying, but the Wikipedia link does not mention this. In fact, the link you post says "these attacks have not been successfully extended to SHA-2."
---------------- Currently, the best public attacks break 41 of the 64 rounds of SHA-256 or 46 of the 80 rounds of SHA-512, as discussed in the "Cryptanalysis and Validation" section below.[10] ---------------- --from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sha-256but this is academical interest only, because I mentioned, whether sha-256 and bitcoin at all is cryptographically strong or not - is just psychological motivation for earlier bitcoin adopters because they are geeks. ang geeks trust in mathematics. Average Joe is stupidly counting number of people who accept bitcoins worldwide and who mine worldwide. |
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This is not so. The average Joe only cares that his paper currency can be taken to another store next week or next month and buy (almost) as much as he had to give to get it. For the average Joe, the relative difficulty in counterfitting is only important in that same context.
So I see you start to understand me. But yet I don't know are you honest person or just a pyramid gamer. That's ok because of anonymous nature of our discussion and bitcoin too. See, average Joe TRUSTs his paper currency can be taken to another store next week or next month. I am average Joe, and I just count number of people who accept bitcoins - the number is some 10 000. In my country, Russia, the only bitcoin excange btcex.com is CLOSED. Reason is dim. Beeing average Joe I simply do NOT trust in bitcoin as currency, in CURRENT moment with 10 000 other trusters. But what can I do else? Reject bitcoin at all. Or.. MINING! Consider current situation, there are some 10 000 miners. FEW days ago I could be miner. FEW days later I never can, with current algorithm of difficulty. When you understand, these FEW days of difficulty-doubling interval is the problem, and 10 000 people in the 6 000 000 000 world who accept bitcoins is the problem. I see the only way - normalize difficulty algorithm to allow profitable mining for 1 000 000 people around a world. at least. And I sure this is win-win way for all of us. In the future, most miners will become peers, when all bitcoin will be mined. So transaction fees (for transaction to pass quickly) will be low. Current algorithm of difficult makes it untrustable to enter in bitcoin world, so it will fail at 10 000 miners & 10 000 trusters/accepters of bitcoin world-wide. |
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People trust bitcoin because the math is so difficult that it requires a lot of time, even when the entire world gets together to throw a massive amount of computing power at the hashing.
It really makes no difference if a thousand people are participating in mining, or a billion. What matters is that it can't be faked.
Understand you, but disagree. only geeks take care it can't be faked. Paper's dollars can be faked. But people trust in them because everyone MUST accept it as a currency media. When you understand, that whether bitcoin can be faked or not - is just psychological reason to trust for FIRST adopters, that are simply geeks?! |
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SHA-1 has been shown to be weak. SHA-2, used in Bitcoin, has not been broken. OHH if SHA-2 has been broken we simply do not discuss here at all. a half of number of rounds during SHA-2 computing has just been broken. |
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But, what does this have to do with mining?
Your rant seems to be about the issue that new people can't mine profitably. Person number 20.001 will trust in bitcoins because 20.000 people already trust in it, not because 20.000 are mining.
Psychology is NOT mathematical induction. And bitcoin is NOT a gold. Number of trust people will not increase just because 20 000 people already trust. You must represent them a psychological kind of ownership. I know too ways - mining & zombie-hypnosis. Simply, 20 000 trusters in 6 000 000 000 world is UNseriously for GLOBAL currency, but is acceptable for a financial pyramid. I'm sure there are some people who are mining, but still don't think the bitcoin will be around in 10 years.
Sure too. But for me, FEW days ago, mining was profitable, and FEW days later will NOT. See, DAYS, DAYS, DAYS. not even months!!! This is the problem - difficulty doubling time interval is DAYS. Are you saying that the mining is the only way people can learn about bitcoin and start to use it?
What method do you propose that would allow million people to mine profitably. Each gets his fair share? How?
Because of bitcoin complete digital unmaterial nature, I see the only way - to normalize algorithm to allow profitable mining for 1 million people on time interval at least 1 year. NOT DAYS! NOT 10 000 people! |
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People trust Bitcoin because it is secure, not because they are mining it themselves.
It's MAIN mistake! People trust in bitcoin because 10 000 - 20 000 OTHER people already trust! SHA-256 is partially broken, and algorithms themselves do almost nothing with trust. Did you study psychology? algorithms lead earlier adopters - miners & brokers - to trust in, because they were geeks. |
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Isn't this the reason why the transaction fees exist? Won't the fees subsidize the increased difficulty/reduced rewards for mining?
Remember, when all bitcoins will be mined, transaction fees are the ONLY source of profit. Of course. but @ 10 000 miners & trusters, we should reject all second-order arguments, but focus only on number of miners & trusters. bitcoin specifics is number of miners ~ (roughly equal) number of trusters. due to digital, non-material nature of bitcoin. it's just psychology effect, but no one cares, if bitcoin system fails with it's 10 000 - 20 000 adopters. ps. do you know SHA-256 is partially broken ? |
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I'm sorry man, I just can't understand what it is that you are trying to say. I think you are upset that you missed the goldrush. But we can't make the block hashing easier just to give you another shot at mining riches.
I just say, I even proove, with current algorithm, bitcoin system will fail down somewhere in 2012, probably at switch 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block. More exactly - when mining will reach unprofitable against electrical power, with typical hardware for newbie - 5850x2 or 5970. It happens because number of people who confirm value of bitcoin is comparable with number of miners. And this situation does NOT take place with Gold. ALL people on Earth trust in gold value. 20 000 people trust in bitcoin value. And you leave no way to join to trust in bitcoin. The only method - allow mining to be profitable to MILLIONS of people at time intervals YEARS, not DAYS (see difficalty rate & prognosis). |
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...the value of bitcoin is confirmed by 10 000 people.... Pff. No it isn't. If you offered most people here 100,000 USD worth of Bitcoins or 50,000 USD worth of Gold and 50,000 worth of Bitcoins, I bet they'd take the diversified risk. There are simply 10,000 (or whatever) people who have sufficient faith in Bitcoin to make it part of their personal economic decisions. See my comment below - if there are only 10 000 miners in the world frozen, I do not trust in bitcoin, because number of people who confirm value of bitcoin is COMPARABLE to number of miners. It is not a rule, it's just happen for bitcoin historically. (!) For gold, number of people who confirm value >> number of miners. With digital currency you never achive Gold rate of confirmation, at 10 000 people who mine. |
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what has all of this todo with mining?
there's no 6 000 000 000 Earth's citizens mining gold, that's just a few hundred.
bitcoin is not about mining coins, it's about transferring coins.
you don't need to mine bitcoins to value bitcoins.
Yes, there's no 6 000 000 000 Earth's citizens mining gold, that's just a few hundred. But 6 000 000 000 Earth's citizens CONFIRM value of Gold. And only 10-20 000 people, according of what percentage do not mine, just sell or buy bitcoins & goods, CONFIRM value of bitcoin. If number of miners will be frozen by the current algorithm, number of people who trust in bitcoin, will be drop down - just at 25 BTW per block switch. So I proove, bitcoin is just financial 'pyramid', if you do not change current algorithm. |
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You're missing the point that bitcoin mining isn't meant to be that profitable for most people.
There is far too much focus on mining in the media attention IMO.
Of course, but 10 000 current people is simply nothing to do with, for the GLOBAL currency. See, FEW days ago, at difficult 144 000, I WAS ready to mining, but FEW days after today, at difficult 360 000 I WILL NOT BE ready. Feel, FEW days, not FEW years, not FEW months! And 10 000 people, NOT 100 000, NOT 1 000 000 000. This is the problem! |
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I really see your point afterburner.
We would very much like to spread exponentially. I am working on a free website that uses Bitcoins, but it is difficult, since I'm not a professional programmer and am busy with working at getting the old money I need to live and get enough Bitcoins to start up the website.
The best thing we can do is spread the increase usefulness of Bitcoin. I agree that it's risky to invest in the Bitcoin economy, but I like to take risks occasionally, and my estimation of the potential usefulness of Bitcoin makes it worthwhile to me. Does it to you?
I understand you, but at your piont of view, bitcoin is just financial game or little risky business. At my point, bitcoin is what OFFICIAL bitcoin site writes: WORLD-WIDE totally distributed, totally defended, and totally mathematically prooven currency, not just dollar replacement, but even GOLD replacement. The value of Gold is confirmed by 6 000 000 000 Earth's citizen, the value of bitcoin is confirmed by 10 000 people. Feel the difference? That's while bitcoin, from mathematical point of view, IS the strong replacement for gold. But real confirmation may be acheved ONLY by number of attracted people, NOT mathematics! No one cares, what mathematics prooves! It's geeky! Also, if we allow attraction of 1 000 000 people as base minimun, it will be a win-win strategy for all us. I.e. it will be, in total perspective, much more profitable game, than now. And much less risky. |
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Personally I think the solution is to help and encourage large BTC holders to purchase things produced within the BTC economy. There needs to be a way to facilitate that.
In other words, instead of spending $1000 on mining equipment to see diminishing returns, newcomers can spend $1000 on producing some good and see rising returns.
Oh, no, no, no  What is bitcoin? Why I am being newbie, should trust in it? What motivation for me to sell goods for BTC??! bitcoin society is some 10 000 people, and current software (with current "constant set") DOES limit bitcoin society in some 100 000 people or less, because difficulty is being normalized to generate constant number of blocks per unit time, 1 bock per 10 minutes. you see, 10 000 people is NOT a thing to trust in, or to operate with. and you see, no one miner will remove his mining power from generation process, so difficulty will increase till mining will be unprofitable acording to electricity power costs. This moment will be reached in some 100 000 people attracted for mining, or less. As 10 000 people, 100 000 people is NOT a thing to trust in, or to operate with. IN TERMS of wold-wide totally distributed currency! So, your politics is simply turns bitcoin system into small financial 'sect', or 'pyramid'. I think, bitcoin "constant set" MUST be normalized to reach EXPONENTIAL newbie miner income rate, TILL 1 000 000 people will be attracted for mining. Then you may change EXPONENTIAL rate to some POLINOMINAL one, then to some LINEAR one, and then, to some CONSTANT. This limited constant number of miners should be some 100 000 000 - 1 000 000 000, i.e. each 1/100-1/10 Earth's citizen should be miner or peer. Otherwise, no motivation for newbies, and apparent bitcoin system failure in nearest future (2012 at 25 BTC per block switch) with max. number of attracted people some 100 000. |
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Hi, there
I studied a lot of bitcoin-associated info in last few days. So I see one problem - the idea is excellent, but the
"constant set" is bad-adjusted.
I consider "constant set" is:
- total number of bitcoins = 21 mln.
- average block generation rate = 1 in 10 minuts
- BTC profit per block generated/closed = 50 BTC per block
See, the "constant set" mentioned above leads to exponential difficluty, in LAST FEW DAYS: roughly
- 144000 for 3-5 days ago
- 240000 for now
- 360000 for 3-5 days in nearest future (some 1100 blocks remain till next difficulty increase).
Next, see: bitcoin society is some 10 000 people now, while for bitcoin currency system to work economically stable, it need some 100 000 people or more, spread around the world.
Next, if I want to enter bitcoin mining society now, as a newbie, I need:
- spend some $1000 for mining rig, or more
- use mining pools
- profit decreases exponentially
Of course you say, deflation scenario is not a problem because we can divide 1 bitcoin till 8 digits, also BTC/$ exchange ratio is adjusting automatically while deflation takes place..
I say : NO, it's THE PROBLEM, because bitcoin mining society is some 10 000 people, NOT some 100 000, NOT million, while Earth's population is 6 000 000 000 people, see 10 000 / 6 000 000 000 is TOO TINY for stability!
bitcoin society is in SEVERE DANGER of collapse!
What to do? May be, we need "constant set" adjustment, to attract MUCH MORE people?
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