Lucky escape then, every cloud and all that...

there's no ROI to be had on any of the current hardware not already plugged in and hashing. If you want to hold some BTC, just buy them.

KnC video I watched showed their Jupiter running on cgminer with 19.6% hw error rate. Probably 20% plus with rejected. Don't believe all the marketing hype, still impressive though but no ROI.

Can't dispute any of that, and I certainly don't profess to have any answers or solutions. I'm just mindful of perspective and the thing perhaps lost on the bitcoin scene is how utterly insignificant bitcoin really is at present. Obviously people in here, mining and involved with btc elsewhere live and breath bitcoin but globally it's still an insignificance, novelty at best, and far from secure in terms of a future beyond itself and a mere existence. A fragile thing for all it's mathematical and conceptual brilliance.

I want to see btc succeed but cannot conceive of it being allowed to, by the crooks in charge, if and hopefully when it gets to the point where it starts to loosen the debt money strangle hold the money printing masters of the universe have on peoples lives.

1) Utility beyond itself and the mining scene?
2) Mainstream adoption?
3) Money cartel and captured Government attack if 1) & 2) are ever achieved or even likely?
4) Network security and incorruptibility after mining stops?

Multiple choice might give a better picture. I can see at least 3 choices in the poll that apply equally to me.

or even the bitcoins they produce, which is the disturbing part of the equation. It would be interesting to know how many suppliers in the whole development and production chain required payment in filthy fiat as opposed to btc.

The problem with mining for profit is that it's rapidly becoming a race into a brick wall in terms of investment return, I'm sure there's a slew of other not entirely accurate analogies too.

The truth is though that bitcoin may be incorruptible and be around forever but the only way bitcoin mining is ever going to return any sort of profit from mining at this stage of the privileged, electronic obsolescence arms race is if it becomes a mainstream currency exchanged in large volume for goods and services worldwide, I know that is happening to some extent but as has been said, that is currently just a drop in the Olympic sized swimming pool and its true value is largely untested. I mean ultimately who cares about increasingly worthless fiat or how many "fiats" it might be worth. What really matters long term is what you can actually buy with it and what work you can do that pays btc.

At this stage in it's life it's really just a concept that's feeding itself in an almost closed loop and the challenge and big test for bitcoin as a crypto-currency and the network security it needs to survive the inevitable attacks on its incorruptibility in future will be when there is nearly nothing left to mine and the economics no longer justify the expense of doing so for the many small scale players.

Interesting times, my only hope is that it breaks the backs of the usury crooks, living high on the loot from their government backed money cartel and debt slavery system.

9.36 nLTC

The same sort of calculations apply to all new hardware don't they? Most people seem to labour under the delusion their shiny new piece of next generation hardware will be the only one in existence. Over time the magical ROI number will stretch further away into the future and an investment break even point impossible, all the while running costs increase as a percentage of returns and also compounded as, in absolute terms, energy prices rise over time.

For a hobby yes, anything else I'd have to say forget it you're on a hiding to nothing.

Why would you exchange something gaining value for something losing value?

The thing to look at is what you want to do with bitcoins, if you're taking a punt on selling them for "profit" then you'd have to consider what the rate of fiat inflation might be and what the things you'd want to actually buy would cost in fiat at that point. Even if the fiat exchange rate shows a 100 fold increase per bitcoin in "the future" it's of little use if everything else you might want or need to buy at that time has increased by the same.

The problem is that the new generation of mining hardware is half this price, less than 0.1 btc/Gh/s as currently advertised and at current fiat rates with much reduced power usage on top, which will be an increasingly significant factor.

OK, you have to wait for that gear but if the likes of KnC do deliver and it doesn't end up being another BFL fiasco then anything you buy now means you'll be left with a very expensive lump of hardware that hasn't a snowballs hope in hell of returning any sort of profit.

I'd go as far as saying the same about KnCminers, or any other hardware for sale, you read people getting all excited and planning what to spend their millions on when they get their new hardware, utterly deluded, it's really sad to see it. By all means go for it as a hobby if you can afford to but those planning early retirement and lives of luxury on the back of bitcoin mining are going to get badly burned by the whole experience.

I'd think long and hard (I'm talking bitcoin mining now) before blowing $6K on any hardware at all. Unless you're bored, have fiat money to burn and want a new hobby.

There is no ROI to be had unless and until bitcoin gets adopted into mainstream commerce. Bitcoin may well be around for ever but until it gets widespread acceptance and commercial usage it's going nowhere. The fiat value of bitcoin is a bit of a red herring too imo, as others have said, if the fiat exchange rate increases mining gets more "profitable" and everyone jumps in. Then everything evens out again and gets back to where it was and you and everyone else then have to spend even more to get back ahead again in the race for your share of each slice of the dwindling mining supply.

If you're just thinking of cashing bitcoins for a healthy fiat profit at some point then that's a punt on bitcoin ultimately failing, it's also unlikely because fiat currency is a dead cert train wreck at some point, you might get more dollars per bitcoin in future but everything you want to buy will also be worth more dollars. Why would you want to buy back into that?

When people look at how many btc they have and what it's really, truly cost in fiat I doubt very many have more than one.

I'll take a punt and say that it's quite likely only a tiny handful and probably no one person on the planet will make a 1000 bitcoins through mining between now and the very last one being produced.

My first post here, I registered to thank luke.jr etc. on the Eligius thread for their hard work and effort but can't post.

Feel compelled to write here though, the value will have to rise significantly if bitcoin is to survive and reflect the costs involved, most people new to mining are going to be sitting on big losses (and disappointment) with any mining hardware bought today or tomorrow given the uptake and difficulty ramps seen and due and the current value measured in filthy fiat.