It seems like only a small fraction of bitcoins as well as other cryptocurrencies gets earned while the vast majority of the coins are bought. But when people buy coins, they obviously aim exclusively at selling them later at a higher price, which is what speculation basically consists in because it makes no economic sense to buy a cryptocurrency to spend it on goods when people can easily spend fiat instead. However, if the price goes down, people aren't going to spend their coins either. And whenever someone complains about prices going down, the only reply they receive is just to hold to their precious bitcoins, no matter what the price could or would be. I have yet to meet anyone telling these bag holders to spend their stashes on something useful.
Apparently, the HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of Bitcoin.
Actually its not destroying bitcoins but people who are holding their coins and not selling it in the market are really making the price of bitcoins increase even further because the demand is increasing but the supply is locked so expect a higher price when people is keep on holding. From my perspective, it is an erroneous attitude. Real value comes from real usage, while speculation doesn't belong here. When people keep on holding, it limits the amount of bitcoins being traded - that's definitely true. And although it contributes to a higher price, this price rise doesn't add anything to real value. What it actually contributes to in the long run is extreme volatility because, as I said, supply diminishes and markets become more susceptible to liquidity storms. |
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I think he means that the speculative mentality is destroying the currency aspect of Bitcoin: The fact that most of the people are buying Bitcoins only to sell them later.
Sadly, that does destroy the main purpose of Bitcoin and other CryptoCURRENCIES.
You say Bitcoin is being used very well as a currency, but that is just plain old nonsense.
Let me ask you this:
What do most people use currencies, like USD, EUR, etc... for? They buy things with it.
What do most people use Cryptocurrencies, like BTC, XRP, etc.. for? They buy it to make more money through selling it later.
See the difference?
Bitcoin isn't used very well as a currency. Not even close.
What can you do. People think of bitcoin as an investment. You can't change their minds and nor can I. People hate crypto currency, they think of it as a stock. Though not all people don't spend bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency for regular purchases, some make do. Having said that, hodling is not going to help, and I say that instead of supposedly hodling, mobilize your crypto across the markets, the more liquid the markets get, better becomes our experience and people's stupid conspiracies and shit goes down for real. I'm curious what you mean by mobilizing "your crypto across the markets". Yeah, I really am. The majority of people are here for the quick buck, they are not particularly interested in the currency aspect of a cryptocurrency. As I said somewhere in the tread, maybe even in the OP itself lol, there is no economic reason to spend crypto when it works as a financial capital for the investor. And I don't think that people will be more inclined to spend their coins if they see massive losses on their investments, though the latter point is actually in question. |
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It is not like he is still not going to sell and as long as what he is holding is still huge, no one would want to gamble selling to him at a higher price and those who are buying now will be very wary of any slight movement in the market. Investors themselves will even be nowhere in the scene of the market. I wish this dude can just do his bullshit once and for all and let us move forward.
And there's more to it than you think. It is not just about some dude selling his stash of bitcoins and getting done with that. It is an example of how fast and how much the price will crash when a bearwhale decides to off-load his massive piggy bank of bitcoins. People are scared away from buying Bitcoin, this is for real and likely to stay for long. In other words, selling the last Mt. Gox coins won't be enough because the damage has been done already. And it may take years to undo it. |
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I don't completely agree with you. Ok, you made a point here, but, to me, the point is btc is still "too young" in the market, for you can't buy or sell stuff by using it (yet). If we see something just like an investment or saving, we are not moving it, of course, so the price will not rise soon. In that, I agree. but I don't think the heart of the problem resides just on the "hodling situation", but on the alternative uses of bitcoin. As long as we become able to buy and sell, to access to common products of need by using crypto, it will be finally into the economy. But, for the moment, we need to wait 'till enterprises take the risk and btc actually becomes a payment system.
For now, this is just being used for trading or investing, and the hold problem is just a temporary result of the December's bubble, where many people bought bitcoin as an investment, and they just don't want to lose their money.
Now, the moment btc will be seen as a tool instead of an investment, well, it will change forever the game.
It looks like you don't see the forest for the trees or how that saying actually goes. It is not a problem of enterprises taking the risk and making Bitcoin into a payment system. In fact, there is no real problem in that because the heart of the problem, as you put it, lies with the buyer, not the seller (enterprises). As an economic truism states, if there is demand, there will be supply. But there is no demand for Bitcoin payments and thus no supply of goods for bitcoins. People use crypto for speculation and prefer to use fiat as a means of payment. |
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You forgot #3 - shuts down and runs with all your money
This may only happen if that exchange have not gained enough supporter, or if they think they already get a huge amount that will be enough to risk their name and to be followed with lots of chaos from their user. Now that governments were into dealing with exchanges legalities , it will be hard for them now. It looks like government regulations on crypto exchanger may now needing to have it. Not for the reason that to regulate the price but to have a certain agency to take dealings with exchanger owners and to know also a legit one. Because as I've observed, a lot of exchanger is now created and I'm pretty sure that some of them are just scam. Well that's one fact that traders would have to live with. So it really just boils down to being selective about which exchange you're going to use. All these exchanges have issues but they of course wouldn't want too many negative ones to smear their reputation. So stick to those that many users are trusting as well and keep a wallet outside exchanges Ultimately, all crypto exchanges are vulnerable because there are inside jobs and hacks. But if coins get stolen, there is no way back. I don't remember an exchange that got hacked and managed to get all their coins back. In August 2016 over 70M dollar worth of BTC got stolen from Bitfinex, and no one knows for sure what's happened to them since then, apart from the thieves themselves, of course. There's no safety in centralized exchanges. Regulations may help a bit, but crypto will remain crypto and no amount of regulation will prevent future hacks. |
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The only way to earn profit in this fashion is to sell your coins to someone else at an extra price. You don't have to be an Einstein to understand that this process cannot keep on forever, and someone will necessarily be left standing holding the bag as in musical chairs.
I would expect Einstein to be smart enough to know that there are different possible scenarios as to how this plays out. We don't know whether Bitcoin will become a sustainable long-term asset or not. That's why it is a high-risk investment with possible high returns or losses. To say that the value of an asset cannot continue to rise in dollar terms is simply not true and flies in the face of data. Our OP's understanding of cryptocurrency is very limited. It's possible he lives in an area where there's no adoption and you actually can't do anything with your coins. It's only hold or sell for fiat. Thankfully it's much different in other parts of the world where you can buy recharge your phone, order food, buty gift cards, shop at amazon and many smaller online stores. Exchanging for fiat is for traders, the rest of you should avoid fiat at all cost and either hold BTC or spend it. If you have solid evidence that there is significant Bitcoin adoption among retailers and merchants who are accepting bitcoins while people actively spending a lot of bitcoins - or any other coins, for that matter - I'm all years, really. Obviously, the question is about genuine adoption, not pseudo-adoption when you seemingly pay with bitcoins but merchants still accept only fiat. Just provide reliable sources. You know, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and all that. And don't forget that in the end it all comes down to users actually spending crypto, not just someone officially accepting it. You simply don't buy bitcoins with fiat to spend them when you can spend fiat instead. |
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If you've been trading markets for 35 years, and this is a helluva job, how could it happen that you bought into this ****? Typically, people learn their lesson the hard way in their fresh years, and then it either remains with them for the rest of their trading lives or they go to hunt elsewhere. Don't consider this as an offense of any kind because I'm really-really curious. After 35 years you should be kinda invincible to these things. I mean the ones like "it will be different this time".
It doesn't really matter how much experience someone may have as a traditional trader. It basically goes up for traditional market gurus as well; they for years have been predicting that this 'bubble' would end according to their traditional market knowledge, but it's still thriving. If we look at how brutal this market can be from time to time, then even 'experienced' crypto traders some times just have to accept that they can't beat the market. I have been trading Bitcoin for years now, and one thing that helped me a lot, is the fact that I know when to back off. I tried to trade against the market in all sorts of circumstances, but it's not worthwhile anymore when everything starts to look like a gamble rather than a well thought out trade. That's why I currently focus almost solely on repetitive patterns. It's much easier, more rewarding, and above of all, it results in less headache and stress. I bolded the part of your post which is quite in line with what I'm saying myself and which I referred to in my previous post. Knowing where and when to back off is the lesson that most traders learn in the first years of their trading careers, typically the hard way. If they fail to imprint it firmly on their mind, their careers are soon to be over. Other than that, I can't agree that crypto markets are really brutal because till recently they were in fact quite forgiving. Whatever price you bought your coins at, you could just sit and wait patiently untill going into green. This is not the case with, for example, derivatives markets where just holding assets (e.g. futures or options) means losing money. |
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It seems like only a small fraction of bitcoins as well as other cryptocurrencies gets earned while the vast majority of the coins are bought. But when people buy coins, they obviously aim exclusively at selling them later at a higher price, which is what speculation basically consists in because it makes no economic sense to buy a cryptocurrency to spend it on goods when people can easily spend fiat instead. However, if the price goes down, people aren't going to spend their coins either. And whenever someone complains about prices going down, the only reply they receive is just to hold to their precious bitcoins, no matter what the price could or would be. I have yet to meet anyone telling these bag holders to spend their stashes on something useful.
Apparently, the HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of Bitcoin.
I think we should accept the fact that we joined Bitcoin as investment to earn more fiat for our future spending not as a currencies to be use for everyday spending. Holding our coins is the right thing to do in order for the Bitcoin demand to increase, to become expensive and earn bigger profit in the future not to dump it thru spending it. This is a very simplistic approach which almost never works in real life for long, let alone indefinitely. In a nutshell, holding the coins works until it doesn't, and we may have already hit the roadblock. The only way to earn profit in this fashion is to sell your coins to someone else at an extra price. You don't have to be an Einstein to understand that this process cannot keep on forever, and someone will necessarily be left standing as in musical chairs, holding the bag. |
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Not really I read it and it is the same old argument, saying that bitcoin does not have value at all, but maybe we are all imagining the huge amount of money invested by the miners to mine bitcoin and the technology behind bitcoin which solved several problems that until that point were not solved, the volatility comes from mainly two factors the uneven demand for bitcoin and its limited supply. The sad truth is, Bitcoin is volatile because it doesn't have real use in the economy as a currency with which people buy things and pay for services. Uneven demand that you talk about is a straightforward consequence of that. If Bitcoin was used as a means of payment, the demand for it would soon stabilize relative to the amount of goods and the volume of services offered for it. But because the vast majority of demand comes from plain speculation, it is prone to wildest fluctuations leading to extreme volatility. |
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You might find this an interesting read. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-16/bitcoin-bubble-or-hyperdeflationIt's a report about a research paper by Incrementum, an independent investment and asset management company. The key point is they highlight 3 outcomes: 1.) Bitcoin Becomes A Store of Value 2.) Bitcoin Becomes A Store of Value and a Medium of Exchange 3.) Bitcoin Becomes Neither and Collapses What you are observing is that at the moment Bitcoin is mainly a store of value (digital gold) and used a little as a medium of exchange (currency). It is very early to say where it will end up but I'd back scenario 2 in the long run. Myself, I can't possibly accept this view, to wit, that Bitcoin is a store of value. If you bought the coins at 19k and right now you keep them at half that price, it is anything but a store of value. You are a bag holder by any appropriate definition, and someone who tries to persuade you to the contrary is either delusional or a hypocrite of the highest caliber. Comparing Bitcoin to gold is actually a disgrace to gold. |
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The biggest enemies of bitcoin are governments. Just see what happened yesterday at G20 summit in Argentina. Even those governments no longer are trying to stop bitcoin. Bitcoin will exist forever. Many people just worry about the price. I am sure it will recover and even if it doesn't rise again ( Which I think is impossible) there is no need to worry about the future of bitcoin.
Hard to say if the biggest enemy of bitcoin is government. If you speak the 'biggest enemy' indirectly that all country or governments are bitcoin enemies. But what happens today there are still many countries or governments that adopt cryptocurrency and bitcoin, how about that? our enemy? for me not! But the biggest enemy of bitcoin is a person who does not like bitcoin or cryptocurrency, like a FUD spreader or a scammer that's the real our enemy. There is definitely a grain of truth in your words. Governments may have a part in what can be called a conspiracy against crypto. The same can be said against dudes spreading FUD or pulling off scams. But in the end, as I'm strongly inclined to think, the biggest enemy of crypro as currency is a typical Bitcoin or some other currency hodler who idly sits on his stash of coins waiting to sell them at a profit instead of spending them in real life. |
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Im a hodler of spendable crypto, Bitcoin, Litecoin and Monero but I actually cannot easily spend them on goods I want.
I might be corrected now after this post but I am looking to buy a used camera and I actually dont mind spending some crypto for it.
My dilemma is where can I get my camera in exchange for crypto?
thats the problem there are not enough retailers accepting crypto and i do agree that hodling is not what Satoshi meant for bitcoin
it has become a speculative tool because of the volatility of the markets.
It may look a bit counterintuitive and likely it is but retailers and merchants are not accepting crypto because there is not sufficient demand for such payments. Yes, you and a few other people would love to pay with their coins, but this is nowhere near enough. We need mass demand for crytpopayments to push cryptocurrencies toward mass adoption in the real sector. Merchants are not fools, and if they see crowds of people wanting to pay with crypto, they will start to accept it. If they don't, someone else will. |
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We are in a bear market, but not like any of those you put in the pool.
A bear market can also mean a hybernation phase, where the price is always sidelining.
This doesn't work with cryptocurrencies. Hard assets like precious metals and commodities like steel, sugar, crude oil (to a degree) may be hibernating over longer terms because the value of these goods is real and pretty much established. This is not the case with cryptocurrencies. They are mostly vehicles for speculation, and their price cannot stay or trade in a narrow range because there is no point of reference for their valuation, for example, no demand from the real economy which would glue prices to a certain level. |
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It seems like only a small fraction of bitcoins as well as other cryptocurrencies gets earned while the vast majority of the coins are bought. But when people buy coins, they obviously aim exclusively at selling them later at a higher price, which is what speculation basically consists in because it makes no economic sense to buy a cryptocurrency to spend it on goods when people can easily spend fiat instead. However, if the price goes down, people aren't going to spend their coins either. And whenever someone complains about prices going down, the only reply they receive is just to hold to their precious bitcoins, no matter what the price could or would be. I have yet to meet anyone telling these bag holders to spend their stashes on something useful.
Apparently, the HODL mentality kills the currency aspect of Bitcoin.
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As adopters, we should show the people the true usage of cryptocurrency. As for bitcoin, we should use it as a currency/payment option more than an asset because the more people who hold it for a long time and then sell it if they got profit, the continuous flow of the coin will not happen. I know that it is hard for now to use it as a currency because the merchants are limited so you can't totally use it in all of your transactions.
That's all good and nice, but how are you going to implement that in practice? Yes, I agree that we should use Bitcoin as a currency to pay with it for goods. But there is no economic incentive to make people pay with crypto. People buy coins with the sole purpose of selling them later at a higher price. If they buy and the price goes down, everyone will be telling you to hold and wait till the price rises. You won't find here anyone who would tell you to spend the coins. This is the attitude prevailing among crypto holders, and there is nothing you can do with that. |
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Lower transaction fee will help. Lower volatility and fluctuation. Also, I surely know that if bitcoin were to be transacted off line and without internet connection, it would have since widely adopted  Lower volatility and price fluctuations subsiding will definitely help but here we have an obvious vicious circle. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile because there is no real support in the commercial sector, which should be straightforward. But the latter doesn't support Bitcoin because it is too volatile. And to break out we need more people wanting to spend bitcoins in real life. This is the root cause - lack of spending attitude - which gives rise to these self-sustaining feedback loops. |
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Why do people are still comparing graphs of the past to current situation of markets? There is no correlation and it is not the same.
So what that at some point in the past price graph looked the same as it is now? It was caused by totally different reasons.
If you seeking likeness and want to predict future price building your opinion of old charts you are not gonna succeed.
The reasons may be and in fact are quite different but people just love to draw analogies because it gives them peace of mind and a bit of comfort, sort of. In a nutshell, you only see what your eyes want to see. And if someone wants to see that Bitcoin is headed south, he will see exactly because this is what happened in 2014. Still, if he wants to find signs of optimism and future growth, he will find them too since this is what happened starting the second half of 2015. |
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History rhymes, it never repeats.
Which time best rhymes with now?
It is hard to say. If we draw analogies with what happened in December 2013 and through all 2014, we may still be in 2014 of sorts. On the one hand, if we reached the bottom at 6k, then we are in autumn of 2015, when Bitcoin got back to life. On the other hand, though, there were major rebounds in 2014 as well, and right we may witness its present-day analogy. In a nutshell, these analogies are overall meaningless simply because past performance is not indicative of future price moves. |
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So much and turn around the "bad" news that hit bitcoin some last time. Will bitcoin survive such a situation?
Or bitcoin just being a 'mtgox' debris a second time?
I am personally still very confident if bitcoin can reach a reasonable price by the end of this year. Even more fantastic in the next year.
You have another opinion, please share your opinion about bitcoin for the end of this year. Will it survive?
The short answer is it depends. If everything is tip-top in the world at large, that is there are no major wars, economic debacles, financial downturns and similar catastrophic events, crypto will likely go on as before. This is the major question you should actually care about. If crypto is okay, Bitcoin most likely will be fine too. If something goes massively wrong, well, your mileage may vary then. |
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We at Quantum1Net believes what needed is higher amount of data transaction and speed, lower power consumption and stronger security. https://github.com/quantum1net/DocumentsOther than that, what do you think? I think these factors are important but they are nowhere near enough nor they are the primary factors leading to and required for mass adoption. Before anything else, crypto holders should be willing to spend their coins for goods and services. So far people have been using crypto mostly for speculation, if not to say primarily for speculation. No merchant will use a cryptocurrency unless and until there are buyers who are ready to actually spend it on their merchandise. |
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