oh cares!
cut your looses!!!
Never!!! I will live proudly in that van down by the river Adam! You will live there with me you permabull! You can learn to become an expert fisher. That way we wont starve and could make a living. You down? down. i'll leave my wife & kids tomorrow. Was it not that nearly all people were shouting for cheap coins? Looks like they are coming.  No, seriously no matter where it stops (now, 400, 300, 200 or even ~100) this is not the end, it's a big opportunity. Be happy! Really. |
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stop with "manipulators" conspiracy, not every single trade that effect the price is manipulation, we are 200$ (from 650) in 2 months and you are still talking about bubbles and manipulators!!! the truth is that the price might fall down further, I am surprised it held this long.
Once I read that bitcoin is the devils method to teach nerds economics. Some do, others not. Regarding that a bear raid is something that happens in other markets too (I can't recognize an ongoing bear raid, but this does not mean that there is no one) I find it a lot more troubling that a lot of people here still seriously mean that bears could run out of coins. That's a big lack in education about market behaviours. Likely these people (bears) will effect the last big selling wave (Hell! They are not running out of coins! I can't explain me that, but better I sell now until these bears make bitcoin worthless). |
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I remember the good old times when the price doubled on a mere mention in Forbes magazine. That was in 2011, and the price was $3. It's not even that unmotivated, if you think about it. Back then, Bitcoin was fighting for even the slightest chance at recognition, and even just awareness. A mainstream article was enough for that. Next was merchant adoption. Took a while, but it looks like Bitcoin is on track in that respect. Makes sense, as well: there's a good, solid financial incentive for merchants to favor Bitcoin over legacy payment systems (assuming they put a processor like Bitpay in between). Now that that one is settled, more merchant adoption (short of amazon.com) doesn't seem to move price up much anymore. So, big question to the audience: what's the next "unresolved" question (as in: something that the market still reacts to)? I have a hunch Totally agree with you. My hunch? Getting Bitcoin tradeable on every real world broker, aka ETF. Other than that, Bitcoin is IMO still searching for a "killer app". I don't know what future ones could be, but since Silk Road and SatoshiDice I haven't seen much that motivates people to use Bitcoin over fiat for transactions. I bet with you that it needs no reason. If there will be any so called reason I think it's only a coincide. People are calling reasons like Cyprus, China etc... at best it has been a small push and after that it's all kinda mass psychology. If we were rising now people were shouting GABI and PayPal is the reason. It's a wave, nothing more. You can see these small pushes even now. PayPal effected strong upwards momentum, but it couldn't stop ongoing wave. |
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And no, I'm not from a 3. world state (like the usa).
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Meanwhile consolidation on Stamp and Finex is not finished yet. You will all left behind when it skyrocks with a breakout upwards People talking about sky rockets for months. And no sky rocket so far, only downwards It was a semi-joke. Not a joke as consolidation in fact has not ended yet, but it looks quite bearish and nothing seems to indicate a breakuout upwards. ~400 is quite likely, ~300 also seems reasonable, and there is even potencial for a further capitulation. I will say it again, and get mocked for it again: If btc goes below 340-350, there is no future for btc. We have already lost so many new adopters this year. Expecting anyone with a buy in from 2014 to stick around for a 40-70% drop in value is ludicrous. Long-term growth is based on adoption, not short-term greed. It would be a Pyrrhic victory for the whales who engineered it. (Exponential growth implies exponential adoption, which implies that the vast majority of btc owners are from 2014, amirite?) Inb4 is btc dead AGAIN, remember 2012, stupid newbie (who has owned coins for 3 years...), there is no such thing as manipulation, this is consolidation, this is is the accumulation stage, etc. Discussion question: do the vast majority of early adopters believe in btc, or are they trying to get as much money out of the next "bubble" as possible, then run with the fiat? And the follow up question: does evidence from the market support one side or the other of question #1? Scary for those who think, tragic for those who feel. I am going to drink some Chang draft for the next few weeks, and try not to pray for a crash. I don't agree. First let me explain the potencial capitulation aspect. It looks like that over the past years a lot of market participants have developted some very naive kind of market perspective, that implies we top out at some point and after that we have a bear market to 0.3 - 0.25 of the top only to repeat the same pattern until we reach 1,000,000$ and beyond. Now breaking below 340, could effect a cascade of Get-Rich-Quick Holders to unload their cold wallets and we could see a cascade of heavy selling waves forcing a capitulation. This possible cataclysm has not has to materialize never, but it's far away from delusional bearish dreaming. If we now draw a mid sized cataclysm of a capitulation low to ~220 you really mean this would be the end of bitcoin? I say, no! I say the market only would liberate hisself from exaggerated expectation, and from people who mean they can calculate market movements by counting 1 + 1 = 2. Regarding your point of new adopters: in this early stage of bitcoin they have no big impact to the markets. They market makers, the ruling traders etc. have an impact. New adopters are like flies smelling shit, they go away when there's nothing to earn, only to come back as a bigger crowd when weather is bettering. As I said, capitulation has not to materialize, but if it does you should stop kinda thinking that many called permabulls here have. A lot of them (not all - as there are of course some real believers) will sell and than quitle likely beeing trapped. Hold, sell now, buy now, do what you want but don't sell into a capitulation and don't believe capitulation would mean the end of bitcoin, it likely would mean the contrary. |
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Meanwhile consolidation on Stamp and Finex is not finished yet. You will all left behind when it skyrocks with a breakout upwards People talking about sky rockets for months. And no sky rocket so far, only downwards It was a semi-joke. Not a joke as consolidation in fact has not ended yet, but it looks quite bearish and nothing seems to indicate a breakuout upwards. ~400 is quite likely, ~300 also seems reasonable, and there is even potencial for a further capitulation. |
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Meanwhile consolidation on Stamp and Finex is not finished yet. You will all left behind when it skyrocks with a breakout upwards |
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i think "random as fuck" would describe that triangle better than "sloppy".  Agreed. Though I give decent chances for a capitulation this thread at all contains no TA. Nothing more than meaningless scribblings. |
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Looks to me like crypto in general is about to recover. BTC is becoming a fat laggard with his larger market cap on both: down- and upswings.
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War of the Walls
This looks more like a suckers battle. Selling pressure is just as low as buying pressure. The real resistances are at higher levels and real support on lower levels. A meaningless weekend battle  |
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I hear ya.
but!
say the shorts that covered was the manipulator ( same manipulator that has been driving down prices, trying to force capitulation ) he just changed teams... and he's a hell of a player.
put that in your pipe and smoke it!
For me it's totally uninteresting if there's acually some strange kind of bear raid ongoing, but people with that amount of wealth trading are normally not that dumb. Smart players know that they have to hide their shorts from the market, so if any question is valid you should better ask why someone is shorting so obviously? Is he trying to direct the market into a trap to the opposite position? But I will not deepen such thinking cause ultimately we will get no answer. I stay with what I see: An overall very bearish picture. I admit that this could change quickly but at least for first small bullish signs that could occur we have to wait for the end of this consolidation what once again makes a rather bearish impression. Just because someone owns a few thousand BTC doesn´t mean that he´s overall smart or can control the market. If have seen fools(DavidPate) puutin up 1000 BTC bid walls for Mxcfees near the top or 4-5000 BTC sell walls @LTC/BTC 0.08 a year ago. That 3000 BTC sell could have easily belonged to a 16 year old hacker, that might have gambled too hard. Yes, of course. You are right. This shorter could be an idiot. I only would not count on that he's an idiot Therefore I said: I better stay with what I can see and that's not so much |
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I hear ya.
but!
say the shorts that covered was the manipulator ( same manipulator that has been driving down prices, trying to force capitulation ) he just changed teams... and he's a hell of a player.
put that in your pipe and smoke it!
For me it's totally uninteresting if there's acually some strange kind of bear raid ongoing, but people with that amount of wealth trading are normally not that dumb. Smart players know that they have to hide their shorts from the market, so if any question is valid you should better ask why someone is shorting so obviously? Is he trying to direct the market into a trap to the opposite position? But I will not deepen such thinking cause ultimately we will get no answer. I stay with what I see: An overall very bearish picture. I admit that this could change quickly but at least for first small bullish signs that could occur we have to wait for the end of this consolidation what once again makes a rather bearish impression. |
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Where did you found this chart buddy?
I'm new..
I bought 50btc today.
Buy the whole book on kraken! It's not that large! |
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Resuming our conversation about one does not simple buy the whole book.  |
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Bearish divergences. Looks like it's topping.
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Hey Ryan, your posts have been really insightful and educational - thank you. One thing I think that would be really helpful would be some more focus on the alternate counts on shorter time frames - from my limited experience of EW counts, 'it is until it isn't' and that can result in a 'loss of centre' when a count is invalidated. Personally I find the shorter time frames extremely difficult to count and would appreciate any help you can give. That's a suggestion, not a criticism - you are already giving a huge amount here and you surely have a large amount of eager pupils already Are you asking me to just start spewing counts all over the place? 99% of which will just end up invalidated? I can do that, I'm just not sure if that is the most productive way to keep this thread. I mean, if that's what people want (more choices/ideas, and by default, more chance for error) I can do that. I don't have a problem with that. I have a ton of possible counts.  i would prefer that you show us just few most, what you think is the most probable counts, or at least say that this count is not very probable if you post not so probable counts, thank you =) We should pay attention to not to overstress Ryan with our desires. Let him organize this thread how he prefers it to do. This is one of the most valuable threads if not even the most valuable in this subforum and there are very few threads here with more value than at most entertainment, to not to say: trash. |
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Who the hell would put up 4 digit walls ?
Especially considering the price would most likely be $500 + if said walls hadn't been put up
Maybe EW trading. If he speculates we are currently only in a correction wave and downtrend will resume in a few days it's not a bad idea, to put such high walls right before the start of wave 3. But I don't know if this is more than a wild guess. My knowledge about EWs is abolutely basic. Look here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=672187.msg8766949#msg8766949Maybe... But if the seller really wanted to get the best price for his coins he would pull the walls, set small walls $10 higher and then set walls again. Seems pretty odd to me if their intent really is selling all those coins You don't know how much more he/they have and want to sell on higher levels or on the (speculative) way back down. |
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Who the hell would put up 4 digit walls ? Especially considering the price would most likely be $500 + if said walls hadn't been put up  Maybe EW trading. If he speculates that we are currently only in a correction wave and downtrend will resume in a few days it's not a bad idea, to put such high walls right before the start of wave iii. But I don't know if this is more than a wild guess. My knowledge about EWs is abolutely basic. Look here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=672187.msg8766949#msg8766949 |
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In the past six months it was the bullish fever effecting a storm of posts and threads about their market sentiment, describing their bullish dreams without any objective reason, consequence: bear market.
I'm not so sure about that the bear market had just stopped now, but last weeks the same disease has infected bearish feeling market participants - a maniac of shouting out all your purely subjective sentiment - let the whole world know what I put out of my ass - reasons are not needed, only audience.
Is it that these shouting bulls and bears have no self confidence and need to compensate it by shouting "their feelings" to whole world?
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dollar value has fallen 1.8% this year. bitcoin value has fallen 60%!!! drop your false hope, bitcoin is going nowhere but down!
I am busy many with a full time job and family. it is my greatest hope that I can save people here and help them cut loose before it's too late! I lose sleep at night because so many worry.
Wow! Real altruism! |
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