Latest posts of: FairlayBTCPredictions

Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?

We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.

So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.

Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.

Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.

Other battleground states:

Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Hillary vs Trump entered its final week: Does Hillary has is it, or is it becoming a tightening race?

As AFP writes, Donald Trump stormed into Democratic territory as the campaign entered its final week Monday, determined to disprove polls and capture the White House as rival Hillary Clinton battles to contain the fallout from renewed FBI focus on her emails. But can he use this to become the next President on November 8?

Allegations that Clinton put the United States at risk by using a private email server while secretary of state were thrust back into the spotlight Friday, though FBI director James Comey told email disclosure may have broken law, dramatically shifting the momentum in a race where Clinton was increasingly seen as the prohibitive favorite to win.

Who will become the next President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.

University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato told AFP the email scandal "has changed the dynamic of the race." And it surely did. "She would have been running a victory lap this week, running up the score. Instead she's trying to hold on." And with this, her lead in RCP polling is down to +3.0 today, after +7.1 on October 18.

While Clinton does maintain leads in some key battleground states and a modest advantage nationwide, recent polls already showed a tightening race. An ABC News/Washington Post survey carried out before the FBI announcement put the Democratic presidential candidate just one point ahead of her Republican challenger.

But while Clinton's lead has shrunk, Sabato distilled the Trump strategy to a simple truth: he needs to flip at least one Democratic-leaning state on November 8 in order to win. Is Trump able to do this? At the moment, Fairlay market gives him 24% chances (with a rather big increase recently), so you can still use the great odds on his win.

Nintendo Switch vs PS4 Pro vs Xbox One S: Which one will be the highest selling console of 2017?

At long last, Nintendo has taken the wraps off its new NX games console. We now know the Nintendo NX will be called the Switch and after having a first look at it, we surely all want to have it. Still, we don’t know anything beyond the basics shown to us in the reveal trailer and that the Switch launches in March of 2017.

Though, a leak on Reddit before the Switch announcement suggested the console will retail at around $299 for the base model but bundles will be available at $399 and be, we expect, similar to the Wii U Deluxe. And could this mean that Nintendo Switch will become the highest selling console of 2017 as most people want to have it?

The highest selling console of 2017. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-highest-selling-console-of-2017/.

At the same time, Xbox released a video with the bold title of "Xbox One: The Best-Selling Console in America." It's a somewhat misleading claim as it's a fact, that to date, the PlayStation 4 has sold more units than the Xbox One. Over the past few months the Xbox One indeed has outsold the PlayStation 4 in America and that is only true.

Still, it's entirely possible that the announcement of the PlayStation 4 Pro has deflated PlayStation sales, as gamers wait to purchase the newer, more powerful console when it launches next month. But, will PlayStation 4 Pro be better selling console than Xbox One S, and can either of them win over Nintendo Switch? Predict at Fairlay.

Trump says he'll keep country 'in suspense' on accepting election result. Will he accept it in the end?

The third and final presidential debate brought a lot of things, but most of today's focus is on Trump's refusal to say he'll accept losing. As Politico writes, Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.

“I will look at it at the time,” said Trump — just hours after his daughter, campaign manager and running mate all insisted that he would respect the voters’ will, win or lose. “That’s horrifying,” Clinton shot back, offering several examples of Trump blaming his personal setbacks and disappointments on others’ cheating or rigging of the events, including 'The Apprentice' getting passed over for an Emmy.

Will Trump accept the election result? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-trump-accept-the-election-result/.

The Republican nominee’s stunning refusal to say he’ll accept the outcome on November 8 was a jolting replay of the first GOP primary debate in which he dismayed his fellow Republicans by refusing to back the eventual nominee. We didn't see would he back the eventual nominee as he became the one, but do you think that he will go so far to deny the validity of the electoral results on November 8?

Treating American democracy as gingerly as a reality TV subplot, Trump promised last night moderator Chris Wallace and the country he would "keep you in suspense, OK?" And, while many think that with this move Trump made a huge mistake that will surely cost him in the end, you can now predict at Fairay market whether or not he will accept the electoral results. So, what is your opinion on all of this?

Three weeks till the US Presidential Election: Who will win Florida, Utah, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

We are 21 days away from the US Presidential election scheduled for November 8. And as Hillary has a +5.5 lead over Trump in national poll average, there are a lot of discussions about which candidate will win which state. Some states are important as they bring plenty of electoral votes, others show how politics change. What will they show this time?

Who will win Florida? Fairlay gives Hillary 76% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Florida went for Obama in 2012, but just barely, with the tightest margin of any state. After the second debate, Hillary has inched ahead in the latest polls for this all-important swing state and many think that she has an advantage over Trump because there is a large Hispanic and Latino population in Florida. But, can Trump still make a surprise win there?

Who will win Utah? Fairlay gives Trump 78% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-utah-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Mitt Romney won the state of Utah by 48 points but 56% of Mormons say Republican leaders should no longer support Donald Trump. But it still looks like Trump will prevail there. Even though it only has six of the 538 electoral college votes Utah could offer an interesting insight into changing political geography. So, could Mormons stop Trump from winning?

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay gives Hillary 68% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Some think that Ohio may decide who the next president is, so it is really important state. Reason for this is Ohio's incredibly diverse demographic, economic, and geographic makeup that makes it matter so much in elections. At the moment, Clinton is ahead plenty of polls but it seems like many think that Donald Trump could still win Ohio. Will he?

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay gives Hillary 89% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Pennsylvania is one of the battleground states and many polls show that Hillary should easily win it. Still, in the last days there are plenty of headlines like 'Can Trump really win Pennsylvania? Stranger things have happened in 2016.' But, since 1988 Republicans have seen prize of 20 electoral votes swept away from them. Can Trump change that this time?

Nobel Literature Prize winner is announced on Thursday. Who will it be? Murakami, Adunis, Wa Thiong'o?

Literary circles are abuzz with speculation ahead of Thursday’s Nobel Literature Prize announcement (1 p.m. CET time), with award watchers suggesting this year’s honors could go to a controversial writer such as Syrian-born poet Ali Ahmad Said Esber, known by the pen name Adonis or Adunis whose most recent publication is a polemic tract on political Islam.

Thursday announcement will be ending of an unusually long wait: it comes a week later than usual “for calendar reasons”, the Academy said in late September. Still, some Nobel watchers have interpreted the late date as a sign of discord over this year’s choice, AFP writes. Could this discord be over Adunis, or possibly some other writer?

2016 Nobel Literature Prize Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-literature-prize-winner/.

Once again, we have Japanese contemporary surrealist Haruki Murakami as the first favorite. Though he is there every year, his fans more than ever think this could be his turn. It is same with the fans of Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o. Portuguese novelist Antonio Lobo Antunes, and Spanish novelist Juan Marse are also amongst the leading favorites.

Literary critic Madelaine Levy at daily Svenska Dagbladet said only one thing was certain: we know that we know nothing about the Academy’s choice. “Year after year, the writers chosen are incredibly different,” she noted. So, what do you predict for this year? Some less known name, first favorite Murakami, or could Adunis be the reason for this delay?

Daniel Craig hints at James Bond return. Will he indeed do another Bond film?

Daniel Craig has lent weight to theories he will return to the role of James Bond, as Guardian writes, following a year of intense speculation. Speaking at the New Yorker festival over the weekend, he told the audience: “I’ve got the best job in the world doing Bond. The things I get to do on a Bond movie and the type of work it is, there’s no other job like it.”

His enthusiasm is in contrast to the sentiments expressed shortly after shooting ended on the most recent instalment. Asked then whether he would like to return to the part, Craig declared that he would “rather slash my wrists”.

Daniel Craig to do another Bond Film? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/daniel-craig-to-do-another-bond-film/.

His words chime with those of Bond executive producer Callum McDougall, who told the BBC recently that franchise chiefs Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson were hoping for the return of the actor, who was “absolutely the first choice”. But Craig denied that he was offered $150m for two movie instalments – a report already widely debunked.

So, will Daniel Craig return as James Bond one more time? It looks like that chances are 50/50 at the moment, so you can use the great odds at Fairlay market, and if your option is No, you can follow with the bet on his successor.

Nobel Peace Prize is announced tomorrow. Who will win it? White Helmets, Greek Islanders, Angela Merkel?

A record number of people and organizations have been nominated for the 2016 Nobel peace prize, which will be announced on Friday, 11 a.m. CET time. This year 376 candidates – 228 individuals and 148 organizations – are in contention for the award. A day before the winner is announced, many give the biggest chances to two different group of people that influenced conflict in Syria the most in the previous year: White Helmets and Greek Islanders.

During the past five years of war in Syria, the White Helmets, a group of volunteer rescue workers, have run towards bombs in opposition-held areas to rescue tens of thousands – by some estimates, as Guardian writes, up to 60,000 people – from the ruins and battlefields. There has been no more dangerous place in the world to be a first responder for most of that time. At the same time, group made up of pre-war Syria’s middle classes, have lost 160 of their own.

2016 Nobel Peace Prize Winner. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

On the other side, if the islanders of Greece win this year’s Nobel peace prize it will not be because any of them wanted to. On the frontline of the biggest movement of humanity in modern times, the residents of Lesbos – to name but one of the isles – were nominated for opening their homes to Syrian refugees despite the economic hardship they have been forced to endure with Greece’s economic near-collapse. Because of this, many see them at the Nobel Prize winner.

Behind these two groups are two persons, though with much less chances: Congolese doctor Denis Mukwege - also nominated last year - for his work with thousands of rape victims, and Nadia Murad, a Yazidi who was abducted by IS fighters and held for months as a sex slave. Though, with a Russian human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina, Angela Merkel, Pope Francis also seen by some as winners, option ‘Other’ at Fairlay is a smart choice. So, who is your favorite?

WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match: Who will win it this time? Seth Rollins, Brock Lesnar, John Cena, someone else?

One of the most exciting events annually, held every January, in WWE is without question the WWE Royal Rumble. Not only is it arguably the most unique and storied match type in the company and maybe even in all of pro wrestling, but there is also the chance to see 30 superstars duke it out and to see the many other surprises and also some returns.

Those returns are now even more possible by holding the WWE Royal Rumble in Los Angeles for 2017, as that opens the door for both big celebrities to make appearances and also for the former superstars that have now taken residence in the big city to return as well. But could some of them even make a surprise win in the 30-man Royal Rumble match?

WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/wwe-royal-rumble-2017-match/.

After Triple H won it in Florida last year, first favorite to win it this year in California is Seth Rollins who is still without the win at Royal Rumble. But his chances are not huge, and the close second favorite is Brock Lesnar who lost last year after being the first favorite, though he was the youngest Royal Rumble winner when winning it in Boston in 2003.

John Cena is one of those legend that is always amongst the favorites, though after 2008 he won again in 2013, so is it too soon for him to win it again this year? But it could be the first time win for Irish Finn Balor, who is currently in front of the names like Roman Reigns, Kevin Owens, or AJ Styles. So, who is your favorite to become the hero on January 22?

Will tonight’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump be the most watched debate ever?

It's debate night in America as the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump takes place tonight in New York, beginning at 9 p.m. Easter Time. The sheer stakes and spectacle of it all mean a lot of people are predicting record viewership. And record in this case means that at least 80.7 million viewers should watch tonight’s debate.

The viewership record could be set as the 90-minute debate could draw up to 100 million viewers. Thus, stakes are high for news organizations, which have an opportunity to set the record straight and to budge the presidential discussion ono the level ground of established facts. But, will this debate indeed go in history as the most watched debate ever?

Will the first 2016 presidential debate be the most watched debate ever? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/.

Surely, millions of Americans will be glued to their TVs tonight, 54 years after Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon squared off in the first televised presidential debate. Though, you should have in mind that online streaming sources are not included in Nielsen report that is source for resolving this viewership record.

In recent years, the public has tuned into the presidential debates in record numbers. According to Nielsen, six of the top 10 most-watched debates in history occurred within the last three election cycles. Five occurred in just the last two. But, in 1980 Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan set a still-standing presidential debate record with 80.6 million viewers.

And many think that, based on how much TV viewing has changed, that record’s unlikely to ever fall — even with the unusual anticipation building for this Trump vs. Clinton debate. But again, with entertainment value of Donald Trump others are sure that TV history will be made tonight. So, on which side are you? And, of course, predict it at Fairlay.

Bitcoin is again under $600, but where will it be on November 1?

Bitcoin had rather fall today around midnight (UTC) as its price dropped from $607 to $592. Still, it is not as near as scary as that drop from $655 from July 30 to $552 three days later.

So, in those few days prices fell close to 20% to start the month, a steep decline that coincided with the hack of Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange Bitfinex, one of the most heavily traded on the network globally.

But as the news of the improvement as Bitfinex came, price started to go up and Bitcoin was still at around $600 since the start of September. Now many ask what will happen next and where will price go from here?

Bitcoin price on November 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-november-1/.

Few days ago, Chris Burniske, blockchain products lead for investment manager ARK Invest, emphasized for CoinDesk that the bitcoin's blockchain retained its security and functionality in spite of the Bitfinex hack.

Thus it was once again confirmed that in spite of recent Bitfinex hack and many other difficulties in Bitcoin community, market participants should keep in mind that bitcoin has survived many challenges before. And will in future.

But where will Bitcoin price go from here? As always there are those who are sure it will go over $1000 in a couple of months, those who think it will keep $600, and those pessimistic ones. What is your opinion? Predict it at Fairlay.