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Here's my take: I think it's consistent with all common wisdom that Bitcoin will have a reversal soon, I think it would be beneficial to Bitcoin in the long term to have a reversal now, and I know it would be beneficial to me personally.
That being said, I'm not willing to go right out and predict one. Every time I've bet on Bitcoin reversing, it's screwed me. The psychology of Bitcoin investors is something totally unique and unpredictable except on very short timescales. Looking at what has happened up to now, there is no evidence to justify betting on anything except growth.
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@S3052
Assuming this is the case, how do you judge when the "tree" is going to peak?
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So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh?
For what? Oh, good point. Australia, perhaps. |
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We reached 6$. I give up trying to predict this market. It’s pure insanity.  why, that's easy: longterm RALLY until 1 BTC = <value of world economy/> / 21,000,000 So I guess when we hit 2.6M USD/BTC I should sell some, eh? For what? |
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Concerning "large denomination currencies", there are really very few currencies for which a day-to-day purchase would exceed one million of the base unit. Assume the upper limit of a day-to-day purchase is 100 USD. For that to be more than 1 million units, there would have to be 10,000 units to 1 USD. Look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_valued_currency_unitThis is the case for precisely four currencies: Somalian shilling, Vietnamese đồng, Santomean dobra, and Iranian rial I agree that large denominations are a reasonable option, but beyond a point it gets unwieldy and psychologically uncomfortable. Buying a loaf of bread for 10,000 units seems pretty natural to me - buying a loaf of bread for 10,000,000 units doesn't. |
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Money doesn't grow on trees, It grows on Merkle trees.
ba-zing
18RmETWEEMSppqBTAeP87VSFwSBDi87snj
Or maybe just, "Money grows on Merkle trees." |
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I suspect when typical transactions start to be less than 1 BTC (i.e. 1 BTC ~= $100), then there will be a lot of support for the idea of moving to microbitcoins. Dealing with quantities less than one hundredth is a pain, but so is dealing with quantities of over a million.
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Carrots don't grow on trees.
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There's a big buyer trying to push the market upwards, I doubt he'll give up so easily
Then we'd better buy before he... oh, wait. |
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Can I make a request? Can we quit it with the random people posting only a screenshot of the MtGox chart with some arrows and BUY written on it?
That is not technical analysis, that is you projecting your desires for the future of Bitcoin.
+1 By the way, it looks like at least a few bears just woke up... |
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@S3052
Do you consider the small surge today to still be consistent with your short-term forecast of a break downwards? Or would you say the less likely scenario is taking place? Or is it too early to say?
I still think it looks like it will break downwards. Look at the market depth, ( http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html), there is not much resistance down to about 2.8, and there is a lot more asks than bids. Looks like downward pressure to me. Of course, I don't know what I'm talking about, and even if I did, a single big buyer (or seller) could cause a huge break either way. Yeah, that was my interpretation of the depth (plus, the other markets are trading significantly lower than Mt. Gox today), but I too don't know what I'm talking about.  |
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@S3052
Do you consider the small surge today to still be consistent with your short-term forecast of a break downwards? Or would you say the less likely scenario is taking place? Or is it too early to say?
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Yes--please try and treat the feature wisely people! It will be good if we can use it as effective meta-data rather than as a joke or game.
I'm curious what, in your opinion, is a wise circumstance under which to "smite" a user? Sometimes there are people on here whose attitudes severely annoy me, and I'd like to give them a smack, but the whole smiting business seems so... unsportsmanlike or something. When would you use it? |
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With few exceptions, companies can refuse to do business with whomever they please. Paypal isn't obstructing Coinpal, but simply refusing to let it use their service. (Though, if it were impossible for Coinpal to reclaim their frozen assets, that would be a bit more complicated...)
Furthermore, using Paypal for currency exchange is against their terms of service. With Coinpal, Paypal had implied in earlier communications that they were willing to look the other way, but that wouldn't be enough to stand up in court.
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Oh, I get it - when the client generates the block, it includes the transaction for the generation bounty in the block, so that transaction can pay out to anyone, and this is valid so long as the total payout = 50 BTC (or whatever the bounty is at the time) + transaction fees. Right?
Would it be possible for a miner to create extremely erratic payouts (i.e. distribute the bounty to a million addresses) as a vector of attack? Or would the block be rejected in that particular case for being over 1MB?
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He encouraged people/hackers to attack a rival exchange. That is enough. This is far from honest business.
He was perfectly honest about it, though! He may be a nihilist but I don't believe he is dishonest. Not until I see evidence that he has broken a mutual agreement of some sort. I believe he was using "honest" here to mean, well... honest adj. 1. honorable in principles, intentions, and actions; upright and fair: an honest person. 2. showing uprightness and fairness: honest dealings. 3. gained or obtained fairly: honest wealth. ...all of the above. It's a matter of opinion whether btcex's business practices are "fair", but for those who believe they are not, a boycott is the best course of action. "Fairness" aside, I'd certainly not describe his actions and attitudes as "honorable". |
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