What a good example of thread hijacking... I was wondering what's up with caVirtex too, and was enjoying the thread until it started diverging at the bottom of the first page...  Stay on topic guys... As for wtf is going on with caVirtex, I'm wondering if it will 'pass' and eventually be more in line with Gox. It would be a good time to buy then! But the reason may just be, as said earlier in the thread, that people are selling their coins in Canada. Mining has got unprofitable. Since electricity is cheap, it took more time for people to switch off. And with the 30 degree C and above, it's a waste of energy. At least, during winter, that excess energy is re-used to heat up the home/apartment, and there's effectively zero loss (what's consumed for the rig is saved in heating cost). Another reasons may also be Canadian laws. With a lot of uncertainties, people may be slowly cashing in. |
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Is the HTTP port down?
pool80.50btc.com doesn't respond since yesterday (August 15).
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The owner should put some sort of 'auto-scale' in his script. Again, the data is off-scale...  Please fix!  |
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I've noticed that there are several thousand-Bitcoin walls that magically vanish before prices quite reach them.
You don't know how much of that wall is real.
Edit: Hyphen for clarity
Indeed, we often see someone waking up and seeing his wall being eaten, and push it at another point |
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Well, I guess it depends if we can crush that 5121.468 BTC (at this time) wall...  I really didn't expect a rise in the first place. Usually, the trend is to rise during the week, and tank during week-end, but we got the inverse situation. Well, time will tell. |
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Arhhhh...  'Content has been restricted in your country'... Will have to use my VPN... wait :-) |
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Just noticed... Old: 120 Day BTC Volume Fee Less than 100 3.00% Less than 300 2.50% Less than 600 2.00% Less than 1200 1.50% Less than 2500 1.00% Greater than 2500 0.50% New: 120 Day BTC Volume Fee Less than 400 1.50% Less than 800 1.40% Less than 1200 1.30% Less than 1600 1.00% Less than 2000 0.80% Greater than 2000 0.50% So, the basic fee has been lowered from 3% to 1.5%. That's good news for Canadian users |
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That's a relic from the time it went up!
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might sound dumb but is the green line the volatility? Green jaggy line is price over time, green and red straight lines are max and min price. |
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Well, this is all speculation  But people are fearing that Gox doesn't have the liquidity to pay everybody. One theory I could have is that Gox played people's money. Normally, in an exchange, people send their money and play their own money. BTC price may rise and fall, people individually gain and lose money, but in the end, no money is really gained or loss, it's only TRADED. One person will make money on the back of another less fortunate lad, or lose money to another person's gain. So, as long as each individual account is kept separate, then whatever people bring in or out of the exchange, be it fiat or BTC, then the exchange is still viable, and can have all the fiat/BTC liquidity required. However, under the cover, the fiat sent to the exchange is just put in a big melting pot. Some sort of money pool. And how much each person still hold in fiat (or BTC) is just data bytes stored on a computer. But this still works as good, and it's much simpler for the exchange operations. So, as long as each individuals are treated independently, with their own assets isolated from other individuals, the game go on. If the prices rise and fall, and someone gain or lose money in the end, then it's only their gain/loss. The exchange is just providing exchange service, and the integrity stays on. Now, let's speculate what would happen, if in a moment of great "illumination", Gox decided to invest in BTC, but didn't want to put it's own money in the pool. Instead, it would just go to his main Gox pool account (after all, a lot of people keep fiat in their accounts for different, and legitimate, reasons). Then, Gox actually play people's money. It ends up as if Gox would withdraw from the money pool, and re-insert it under it's name, to buy BTC. All this in hope that price will rise, and cash out (return what it took from the pool, and take out the profit). But what happen is that the pool is now short. What would happen if that the prices keep falling. People more and more want to cash out. The only problem is that the fiat pool is now drained. The only options are: - For Gox to insert fresh money in the poll (actually taking his loss at that time), but that most realistically won't happen (talking millions of $ here). - Delay the cashout, in hope people reflow the fiat pool, so to pay out other investors wanting to cash out. And hope that enough transactions occurs in the meantime so Gox has some revenue from transactions to help cover this up. Well, seeing an increase in transaction fees would very highly back this theory up! That scenario, although started faithfully, has now fully turned into a Ponzi-like scheme. Note that this scenario is hypothetical and hopefully purely fiction. But I think there's still reasons for concerns... |
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As it happened in 2011, this "gold rush" will end up with people mining at a loss and/or turning their rigs off.
Yup, I wonder what's the hash rate now. The network hash rate page is no longer updating for 2 days. I just switched off my mining equipment. It was getting too hot with summer heat vs. what I get in return  On the bright side, it's soo much cooler and silent in my computer room  Ahh, the good old pre-Bitcoin-mining days! heh |
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Well, for the anti-bears out there, think about this. Sure it would be nice to see the price start to rise. But, honestly, do you have any plausible reason why Bitcoin would go up? - MtGox unfreezing payout? Well, even if technically unfrooze, they still keep a 2 week delay. Some say that it's because they really lack liquidity and they want to have some cash inflow to pay for the outflow (à la Ponzi). In any case, we can forget that as the trend changer. - Winlevoss fund? Well, those things take time. It won't happen tomorrow for sure. And even if it happen soon, do you think people will invest just for that? There's nothing to back it up except for the speculative/hype aspect of it. Fundamentally, the hype is already gone, and there's no real economy put forward here. - Paypal won't go Bitcoin for a while. It's under U.S. laws and probably don't want all the hassle of registering, etc. - Any big player jumping into Bitcoin? Who would risk it? The buzz is gone. - Anything else? On the negative side though there's just more and more that pile up against Bitcoin. So, do you really just hold in hope that some magical power would suddenly change the trend? In hope that it may rise for unforeseen reason? Do you really think such a rise would be sustained? How much do you think the price would rise over the course of several weeks? 10%, 20%, 50%? Really, that sort of thing happened last time because there was sustained news, hype, media attention, coordinated turn of events. Really, the buzz is gone. People who had the chance to learn about Bitcoin already know about it by now. The medias already have forgotten about it... Old story, nothing new. I'm telling you, the future does not look bright. And I don't see anything that would sustain a rise, let alone a change of trend. So, before speculating that the price may rise, and jump back in if it goes up by 5%, think more than a week ahead. The golden days are behind. I don't say that it's over, just that the magic is no longer there. Price may stabilize, but the fundamental problem is there, Bitcoin is still and always had been a virtual speculative hype. And it's now being seen as a threat by the U.S. govt./banks. It will only get beaten more and more, and with more fierceness as the price go up, and as more people invest in it. Bitcoin is still a child. It's not seen anywhere as a serious option for the future. Way too much fluctuation. Way to much uncertainties. That's my opinion, just my 2¢... And please, lawful believers and undeniable bulls, put to good use your freedom of speech and don't hesitate to flame me! That's what the speculative forum is for But I think it's time to take a break for a moment and do a reality check. |
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Well, from the look of it, I think a lot of bulls are still stuck in denial phase, and they will be all the way to the bottom I praise for the day the price stop falling, and start to raise, and those bulls say 'I told ya!' when the price double from 10$ to 20$.  |
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A few reviews says that they are one of the best one (PIA) concerning anonymity. If you use shared IP, then there's no was they can keep logs. And for now, the bill hasn't passed yet about data retention in the U.S. (though that might come in sometime, but I hardly see how you can keep log for shared IP VPN). When you use that, then what happen is that multiple users are set to this external IP. So the only way to track you is if they keep log of EVERY packets sent, from which customer, with which re-mapped TCP port number. Technically unfeasible for more than a few hours. Dedicated IP is another story though. Another one is BolehVPN, based in Malasia. But they are twice the price of PIA. Both accepts Bitcoin payments. A good review site is http://www.greycoder.com/best-anonymous-vpn-for-2013/I personally use PIA. One good advantage with their client is the kill switch. As long as the client is still running, if you get disconnected, then it kill your Internet access. It can also re-route DNS lookups (DNS leak protection). So it use *their* DNS for all your queries instead of your own default DNS. Make sure if you use VPN that you check their policy for torrenting. Both PIA and BolehVPN ask you not to use U.S. servers for torrenting. They have a list of servers you should use for that. One advantage of Boleh though is that you can select fully routed server. So you can forward every incoming port (useful for torrent). With PIA though, you can connect to some servers that forward 1 TCP port only. Although you have to re-configure your torrent client incoming TCP port each time you reconnect to a VPN server. If you leave your VPN connection active, it's not as bad as it look though. Though the fully-routed BolehVPN servers are dedicated IP (that's why they can forward all ports back to you). I did try both, and even chained 2 VPN back to back (just to test if it would work... that was a pain, using multiple virtual machines, but it worked!). |
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80$ wall gone |
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Ah, didn't take long, let's see now |
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Seems like BTC has bottomed? If we reach 80, people might just jump back in and panic buy? Well, let's hope it happen  Of course, I could be wrong! |
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So why exactly are people selling their Bitcoins to have dollars on the exchange that they think is going bankrupt and doesn't allow them to withdraw at the moment?
That doesn't make sense at all.
Well, a lot of people are tied to Gox, like some payment providers, merchant, etc. Or others just don't follow the news, and don't know about it yet. While other just don't want to go through the hassle of cashing in from another exchange. Just registering to an exchange is sometime complicated. They ask you for ID, photo, etc (verification). And, for example, for me in Canada, I use Virtex (and had to go through similar process to get validated), and using other exchanges is not really practical. However, I sure think that exchanging and keeping in fiat at another exchange is the best bet for now. If Gox go down, them the other exchanges have more chances of staying up. And also may be a good bet to spread your BTC across a few exchanges (in fiat over there, as the prices continue to go down). Gox announced the halt on Thursday 2 weeks ago. go forward 2 weeks and that give out tomorrow. So you see why people are nervous, may it be legitimate or unfounded... |
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