I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above.
This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k.
Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89%
Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%
I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99%
Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive. Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile. A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024. Interesting perspectives and thanks for your work. I have a question and an opinion of my own. Question is - Do you think there is a probability we may see a mini cycle top say near 100k and a decline to test 12k-15k lvls with a quick bounce up and towards 300k? My opinion next cycle bottom - Whichever we may go towards 250k - 350k I think the next bottom should be around 12k-16k IF we have a longer bear market. Mainly because BTC production cost lvls are a good indication. As of now worldwide avg cost to make 1 Bitcoin is between 12k-15k and to be doubled by 2024 and BTC always gravitated towards its production cost lvls during the bear market (also as Satoshi mentioned in his white paper) and bottomed out 40-50% below its production cost lvl historically. So I guess the timing of the bottom would be interesting to see, if it were to happen before 2024 we could see even a quick sub of 10k lvls, post 2024 would around 12k-16k lvls from my understanding. Would like to know your thoughts as well on my opinion welcome, it's your first message, it's never too late to decide to write. I have been here for years and I could not tell you how to check the costs associated with mining(easily), however, it is a piece of information that you handle easily. As for the next minimum it's a total mystery, but I think losing the 20k: -it would be the first time it would happen, which would generate nervousness in weak hands -a shock for many, but not the end of BTC, -the level would be determined by that cost of the miners. The reason for asking here is to know, from Elliot's point of view and the wave count, how a loss of the previous ATH would be interpreted, in this case, the 20k $ Some will think that we are weird, speaking of the next low, when BTC is making them rich with each passing day. I see it interesting. |
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Possible, but probably unlikely if Bitcoin is going to survive.
Consider the Halvings. The next Halving is in 2024. So far, each prior Halving has occurred around 1.5 years into a bull market, which helps to make mining economically worthwhile.
A decline of -97% to 5K would have to be extremely fast, and then rebound extraordinarily rapidly, in order to reach a price point to where mining is economically viable post the Halving of 2024.
AHA! the difference of BTC with other assets is that the prices will not deviate very much, for a long time, from the equilibrium price of the miners. We will have to be attentive in due course to see what that level will be for the years 2022-2023-2024 |
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you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II.
Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced?
Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction?
The bear market declines in Bitcoin since inception have been: -94%, -87%, -85% —hence the average being -89% If say the current bull market ends around $220K to complete CYCLE-I by 2022, then a -89% decline for CYCLE-II ought to end above $20K. Anybody's guess what happens next, but the following may illustrate the popular preference...? [/quote] I understand that some corrections look for wave 4 above. This would make it possible for Cycle II to drop below the 20k level and drop somewhere between 20k and 3k. Correction 220k ---> 20k = -89% Correction 220k ---> 5k = -97%I understand that Waves 2 can correct quite a bit, up to 99% |
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Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop.
On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines.
Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months.
you already clarified the possible duration of Cycle II. Regarding the depth of the correction, from 85-90%, how do you see the possibility of the previous ATH of $ 20k being pierced? Do you think that BTC will again stay above the previous ATH in the next correction? |
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Currently expecting CYCLE-I bull market to top around $220,000 to $380,000 by JAN 2022 —could be higher, could be lower, will revise price and time accordingly as the waves develop.
On average, bear markets have elapsed around 13 months, with -85% declines.
Current expectation for CYCLE-II bear market is around a -90% decline, elapsing 12-18 months.
You say that the bear markets have lasted an average of 13 months, we are talking about the two corrective waves of PRIMARY grade, that is, waves [2] and [4]. These waves [2] and [4] are bull market corrections that have lasted between 2 and 3 years. According to your count, at the end of the year 2021 the CYCLE-I wave will be able to end, which will have lasted 13 years. You tell us that the CYCLE-II wave can last 12-18 months: 1.-you say that the CYCLE-II wave is similar in time to the PRIMARY [2] and [4] waves 2.-If a 2-3 year bullish cycle is followed by a 13-month correction, which corresponds to 54-36% of time with respect to its impulsive wave, how can it be that a 13-year wave is followed by a correction of only 12-18 months, which is at most 11% of the time with respect to the impulse wave that you are correcting? |
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If Cycle I is really being developed, which would have taken 13 years to develop, how can II be? -How much can you correct in % -How long will it last, which should be proportional to 13? 3-4 years? My first sensations are that the bear market that could come if that count is confirmed, will be long and very hard. And it is difficult for S2F to continue to be fulfilled for the next halving, to see $ 1 million. |
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I still don't understand some things about this count. Shouldn't minor2 and minor4 look? That is, to be able to join them with a line without crossing the price. The typical line 2-4, I have always thought that it should not cross the price. Could you clarify what theory you apply, so as not to ask yourself so much.  |
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In that case, if that minimum of March/20 is (2), wouldn't the (4) you have drawn be too small? (only 2 bars falling, compared to 37 in (2))
For there to be alternation, wouldn't it be more logical to see a triangle as wave (4)?
Now I realize that the same thing happens in the previous cycle, the (4) looks much smaller than the (2).
The rule of alternation between wave-2 and wave-4 is not a compulsory requirement. Such alternations are more common in equity markets, as opposed to commodities and currencies —even rarer in other markets like art and house prices. The difference between wave-(2) and the projected wave-(4) is not 'too small' —there is no strict requirement that both waves have to be similar in time and price. The chart is set to logarithmic scale. If you were to change it to linear scale, then the projected wave-(4) will look 'too big'. 2018-2020 can not be a Triangle. Such a structure requires 5 legs A-B-C-D-E —see allowable possibilities illustrated below, of which none fit the price action of 2018-2020...  I believed that alternation was a fundamental rule. When I spoke of triangle in wave (4) I was referring to the wave of this Primary [5], which I see has drawn very similar to the one (4) of the Primary [3] However, it is true that if this Primary [5] is a parabolic movement like the Primary [3], a triangle would not fit much, and if a fast wave like the ones you have drawn. |
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Couldn't I have finished that B on Feb / 20, with a C miss?
The fall of March/20 could be the C of a flat 2018-2020
When looking at the graph, it seems clear that the 2018-2020 correction ended in March/20 and from there, the price rise rapidly to exceed the previous highs of the flat, something common in the flat.
Your suggestion means both the (B)-wave and (C)-wave, and lower degree C-wave are all truncated misses —no such Elliott Wave structure. The below image illustrates your erroneous structure of three failed truncated wave misses... In that case, if that minimum of March/20 is (2), wouldn't the (4) you have drawn be too small? (only 2 bars falling, compared to 37 in (2)) For there to be alternation, wouldn't it be more logical to see a triangle as wave (4)? Now I realize that the same thing happens in the previous cycle, the (4) looks much smaller than the (2). |
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That would imply the rise from the low of 2018 to the top of 2019 is wave a B-wave as part of PRIMARY[4] wave.
B-waves are corrective three wave structures.
The rise from 2018 to 2019 is an impulsive five wave parabolical structure. Character and magnitude of such waves are classic motive waves in Bitcoin.
The 2015 and 2019 bull markets began with similar price fractals, see here:
Couldn't I have finished that B on Feb / 20, with a C miss? The fall of March/20 could be the C of a flat 2018-2020 When looking at the graph, it seems clear that the 2018-2020 correction ended in March/20 and from there, the price rise rapidly to exceed the previous highs of the flat, something common in the flat. |
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I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4]
Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do.
NOV/DEC 2020 and FEB/MAR 2021 are similar price fractals, see here: I was talking about the Primary wave [4] |
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I am not a specialist in elliot, but without understanding how (2) can be almost on the same level as [4]. What I see more logical is that (2) is actually the end of [4] Anyway, thank you very much for the follow-up you do. |
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It is true that there has been no movement or development in recent months, but the network continues to be maintained thanks to 9-10 peers. I suppose they will have a cost, unless for some reason, it is free to maintain them. This gives me a modicum of hope. XEL left Bittrex 4 months ago and there they are still on without any apparent task.
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Yes, indeed, there is a withdrawal warning in the "Token Withdrawal After Delisting" of the announcement you referred too. And formally Bittrex can remove the wallet at any moment, and refer all annoyed customers to that warning... But practically I have noticed they try to be more cautios, and provide their customers with appropriate wallet removal email warnings - sometimes 2-3 times before actually removing wallet. Probably they try to avoid unnecessary complications, which will surely arise if they don't provide enough warnings before removing the wallet (as this could bring to a loss of funds belonging to a customer).
Not only XEL wallet is still online. I have another coin in the same list, which still has active wallet on Bittrex, despite market being delisted for few months already. As to the reasons of this behavior from Bittrex, I can think of few reasons, but I have no idea whether any of them is correct...
One thing is pretty clear - even if they didn't delist those wallets yet, they are going to do that sooner or later, unless any of the delisted projects gains REAL traction, which is unlikely.
Do you have any opinion about the possibility of resuscitating the project or do you think that we will not see the conditions of 2017 again, in which without having a defined team either, several people agreed to do things? |
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As far as I understand, the XEL wallet is not removed from Bittrex, and there was no withdrawal period announced. They only removed the market, but kept the wallet open until further notice. Typically they send notifications when removing any coin's wallet. I did not get any such notification regarding the XEL wallet yet. Thank you very much for the clarification. In the notice that bittrex made on the occasion of the exit of XEL and others, they indicated that there was a month or less to withdraw. https://bittrexglobal.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/360017409679-Pending-Market-Removals-11-20-2020Is it normal for Bittrex to keep the XEL wallet? does it with others? I think that if an exchange makes this decision, I do not understand that it maintains this support longer than usual. |
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I usually follow Discord because there are some with powers on Github. The good thing is that we still have 10-11 peers. Have you seen that the Bittrex wallet still has more than 39 MM XEL, and that almost every day there are transfers, despite the fact that the withdrawal period ended 2 months ago? https://explorer.xel.org/address/XEL-AQVJ-PPCK-QJYJ-8T65V/ |
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Esta no tiene mala pinta (está parametrizada para que salga lo que me gustaría, así que tampoco es muy serio): Es con datos hasta hoy, precios en €.  Tengo que ver porque sale tan diferente con cambios pequeños en los parámetros, creo que hay algo que no funciona exactamente como yo pretendía. No soy especialista en modelos pero, entiendo que lo que podemos esperar que se vayan adaptando serían las medias. Diariamente el precio tiene sus variaciones, pero las medias lo van suavizando. No creo que esperes que el modelo prediga el cierre diario, o sí? |
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Para un amigo que se puede perder la posible subida de 2021 por tener que utilizar el poco dinero que consiguió reunir en ETH, ya le he dicho que como es joven, que se vaya preparando para el posible próximo bull-run en 2025. Que seguro no hay nada, pero si le va metiendo un poquito todas las semanas, en 4 años habrá podido reunir un pico...siempre que no lo vuelva a vender para otro imprevisto. El que se haya hecho rico con BTC, es porque no ha necesitado el dinero en esos 4 años que ha durado el ciclo hasta ahora, y que además, no se la ha jugado al trading sin saber. El posible camino hacia el millón dentro de 4 años.  |
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conocéis esta web? si funciona, nos puede servir de refuerzo para saber cuando nos funcione el AT, según si estamos analizando BTC o una Altcoin: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/Avisadme si se ha posteado ya, para borrar. Aunque me temo que va con retraso, y puede que haya que utilizarla para salir, en lugar de entrar, puede que te avise de altseason cuando las altcoin ya han subido mucho. Claro que un buen tirón de una altcoin, puede llevar 2 o 3 meses, con varios impulsos y correcciones. Por lo menos para DOGE no nos ha valido.  |
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It's your choice if you want to trust Pi Network, every steps they take are off key to me, the mining phase is even the most annoying, KYC verifications must be complete to actually owned the coins you mined? Bravo mates, this isn't mining at all, when you mine you become the real owner because mining is decentralized, but not Pi mining lol
Sure, PI is not yet a blockchain. We have not yet reached that stage. The current phase is called mining, although it is not exactly like that. But the important thing is to get what they are looking for, assign PI to all those who are constant and hit the button once a day. I can assure you that of all those who start, less than a third continue to open the APP. It is a matter of trust. If it doesn't cost me money, I continue to trust. Many of those who speak ill of PI is that they have enough BTC not to worry about retirement. I assure you that these not only will not hit the button, but they will laugh out loud at others who are giving it. But I dont care.  |
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